国际能源署(IEA)在一份报告中称,热泵的普及可以加快中国高碳排的建筑和轻工业在用暖过程中的脱碳。

这份与清华大学合作发布的报告认为,由于使用热泵可以提高电气化程度并改善能效,因此如果把使用热泵作为中国实现2060年碳中和战略的一部分,为建筑供暖而产生的直接碳排放量到2025年将下降75%,降至7000万吨二氧化碳(MtCO2)。
同样,使用热泵也有助于减少为轻工业生产提供热量而产生二氧化碳排放。这可以将直接排放量从目前的1.1亿吨二氧化碳,减少到2050年的1000万吨二氧化碳以下。
2023年,中国是少数几个热泵总销量上升的国家之一。然而,报告指出,热泵的普及和建筑、轻工业向使用更多低碳能源的转型仍需要更多政策支持。
中国在供热方面消耗了多少能源?
2022年,中国的终端能源消费量为107艾焦(EJ)。国际能源署报告称,这其中热力消费量约为50艾焦。中国热力消费量相当于全球热力消费总量的“约三分之一”。
中国约四分之一的热力用于建筑业,其余用于工业。
在建筑领域,过去十年中国的热力消费增长速度超过任何其他国家,在2022年达到12艾焦。这主要是由于空间和水的用热需求不断增长,自2000年以来,直接和间接排放量增加了“近三倍”。
自2010年以来,用于供热的煤炭消费量总体下降了15%。国际能源署的报告将此归功于2010年代中期开始的政策推动。这些政策最初是“为了改善空气质量,后来是为了扩大清洁低碳能源的供暖”。
然而,区域供热——即集中供热机制——是一个例外。它是中国北方城市地区的主要热源。热泵和其他分散式解决方案在中国南方和北方农村地区更为常见。
中国北方的区域供热网络80%以上的热量生产来自煤炭。据国际能源署称,这是全国建筑供热中煤炭消耗的主要驱动因素。
2019年的一项研究发现,中国仅区域供热的碳排放量就超过了英国的二氧化碳排放总量。
该报告的主要作者基亚拉·德尔马斯特罗(Chiara Delmastro)博士和拉斐尔·马丁内斯·戈登(Rafael Martinez Gordon)博士告诉Carbon Brief:“(这)主要是由于中国北方城市(供热)网络扩张的推动,特别是……自2010年以来,区域供热网络的长度增加了250%,其中绝大部分在北方。”
不过,德尔马斯特罗和马丁内斯·戈登也指出,“中国近年来已经采取行动,朝着更清洁、更高效的供暖方向发展”——例如,从使用燃煤锅炉向更高效的热电联产电厂转型。

同时,2022年的工业用热总量为38艾焦。其中部分需求为中低温热力(低于200°C),这通常是轻工业、纸浆和造纸行业,以及一些化工行业工序所需的。
报告称,2022年这些中低温热力的需求量为4.7艾焦,直接碳排放量超过1.1亿吨二氧化碳,它可以通过现有最先进的热泵技术轻松满足。
然而,超过80%的工业供热需求需要200°C以上温度,这样的高温主要用于钢铁制造。其他需要如此高温的行业包括非金属矿物和有色金属,以及化工和石化、纸浆和造纸行业的一些流程。这些行业是工业供热需求的大用户,在2022年的消费量为33艾焦。
热泵如何帮助中国实现“双碳”目标?
中国建筑业和工业的供热需求主要由煤炭驱动,占中国煤炭消费量和二氧化碳排放量的40%。
不过,国际能源署也指出,煤炭供热量已略有减少,这主要归功于“改善空气质量、减少二氧化碳排放和最大限度提高能效的政策”。
2022年,在中国建筑的直接排放中,空间和水用热产生的碳排放量占绝大多数,约为2.9亿吨二氧化碳,而轻工业用热产生的直接排放总量为1.1亿吨二氧化碳。据国际能源署预计,中国2022年碳排放总量达到121.35亿吨二氧化碳。
该报告提供了在已宣布承诺情景(APS)下中国热泵使用量的估算。在该情景下,政府被假定会按时、全面地实现其所有气候目标。
报告还考察了既定政策情景(STEPS)下的热泵使用量情况,其反映了国际能源署自己对政府政策当前走向的判断。
如果中国坚持其“双碳”承诺、与已宣布承诺情景保持一致,那么国际能源署预计到2050年,建筑业热泵的装机容量将增至1400吉瓦(GW),可满足中国在该行业四分之一的用热需求。
根据已宣布承诺情景,到2050年,中国建筑行业每年将安装100吉瓦的热泵,相当于“美国、中国和欧盟在2022年部署的总容量”。
到2050年,建筑供热的排放量将从2.9亿吨二氧化碳降至8000万吨,减少2.1亿吨,其中热泵的贡献占到了30%。建筑业脱碳的其他驱动力还包括更多地采用电气化、能效措施和行为改变。
在轻工业方面,根据已宣布承诺情景,在2025至2050年间,中国每年将新增热泵装机容量约1.5吉瓦,可以在2050年满足五分之一的用热需求。
这将有助于“大幅”减少碳排放,其总量将从逾1.1亿吨二氧化碳锐减95%至1000万吨。电气化(包括通过采用热泵)将贡献减排量的70%。

报告还指出,有两个高耗能行业非常适合使用热泵:其一是纸浆和造纸行业,其目前约55%的用热需求可由工业热泵提供;其二是化工行业,该行业约18%的需求可由工业热泵提供。
然而,热泵不太可能满足其他高耗能行业的需求,因为“目前只有少数能满足200摄氏度以上温度的早期原型机,所有这些都远未为大众市场做好准备”。
即使在既定政策情景下,中国建筑行业中的热泵存量也将翻一番,到2050年将超过1100吉瓦,并推动建筑业排放量减少25%以上,煤改气等燃料转换措施也将发挥作用。
对于轻工业而言,在既定政策情景下,由热泵推动的碳减排 “仍然有限”,因为在当前的政策背景下,热泵的“部署可能比较缓慢”。总体而言,到2050年,与热力相关的排放量只会减少15%。
报告称,重要的是,在已宣布承诺情景下,中国和世界其他国家为实现气候目标所需的政策将“极大地调动”某些行业的积极性。采矿和机械等行业需要扩张,提高清洁能源技术产量,以满足国内和全球需求。
虽然与既定政策情景相比,这些新增工业活动将使已宣布承诺情景下中国的用热需求增加5%,但更广泛地应用电气化和清洁供热技术所节省的能源将足以抵消相关排放量。
此外,报告还指出,热泵的部署将使到2050年供热的能源强度(即单位热量的能源需求)比现在下降20%。
报告还补充称,随着更多可再生能源和核能发电并网,到2030年,热泵使用的扩张与电力系统去碳化之间的配合将使供热用电的间接排放量下降40%以上。到2050年,电力在供热中的份额可能超过75%。
例如,国际能源署指出,如果中国的气候目标得以实现,纸浆和造纸行业“到2050年将几乎完全淘汰”煤炭使用。由于电气化和煤改气,该行业已将煤炭在其能源需求中所占比例从2010年的43%减少到2022年的10%。
根据已宣布承诺情景,到2030年,中国用于空间和水供热的直接煤炭使用量将下降75%,到2040年将“几乎完全淘汰”,到2050年,热泵将成为城乡供热的关键技术。
然而,在这种情景下,需要大量投资才能部署足够的热泵来满足需求。
热泵在中国的应用效果如何?
报告称,在2023年,中国建筑业热泵装机容量超过250吉瓦,该国热泵销量占全球的25%以上,是2023年唯一热泵销量出现增长的主要市场。2022年,热泵占中国建筑业供热设备销售总量的8%。
在华中和华南部分地区,在没有集中区域供暖的情况下,热泵已成为建筑空间供暖和制冷的“常态”。报告补充说,由于当局通过政策支持鼓励农村地区限制煤炭消费,农村地区正在越来越多地采用热泵。
区域供热的情况也是如此,集中供暖管网运营商们正在越来越多地安装热泵。虽然大多数是在相对较低温度下运行的“空气源”热泵,但一些运营商也开始安装大型热泵,以回收钢铁厂、污水处理设施和煤化工工厂的废热。
报告称,这些热泵“为区域供热网络、建筑和工业提供了热力脱碳最有效的选择之一”。
目前中国单个热泵每年的碳排放量——无论是直接排放还是间接排放——都比燃气锅炉低30%以上。报告称:“从化石燃料锅炉转向热泵将减少几乎所有安装场所的二氧化碳排放”。
国际能源机构称,尽管热泵的前期安装成本较高,但它能帮助用户在使用期内节省能源开支。
下图显示了中国不同的气候带。在一些气候寒冷以及夏热冬冷的地区,空气能热泵比燃气锅炉和电加热器更具成本效益。

空气-水热泵比电取暖器更省钱,尽管在电价比天然气更有竞争力的地区,它们只比燃气锅炉便宜。
在高耗能行业中使用热泵的可行性较低,因为目前产生200°C以上高温的技术基本上仍在开发阶段。
但报告指出,对轻工业而言,工业热泵比燃气锅炉和电锅炉“便宜得多”,并且由于高能效,在其使用寿命内成本几乎可以与燃煤锅炉相媲美。
尽管如此,由于前期安装成本高昂以及公众对热泵的有效性缺乏认识,热泵的使用并不普遍。
德尔马斯特罗和马丁内斯·戈登告诉Carbon Brief:“在某些流程中,(热泵)的替代技术可能成本更低且更合适,而且不同的政策决定可能会刺激热泵应用的广泛性。但为了实现中国的碳中和目标,我们估计到2050年,热泵需至少满足轻工业20%的热力需求。”
该报告补充说,最先进的热泵——新发布或即将发布的热泵技术——能够很好地满足建筑领域和轻工业领域的用热需求,理论上可满足约40%的需求。
此外,中国目前浪费的热能资源可以通过热泵进行再利用。报告称,2021年,中国的核电站、其他发电厂、工业活动、数据中心和废水等来源产生了45艾焦的废热资源,几乎相当于建筑和工业用热需求总和。
政策如何支持热泵的应用?
作为能源转型的一个方面,热泵在中国国家级能源和气候政策中出现的频率“日益增加”。例如,《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》(2021-2025)要求提升终端用能低碳化电气化水平。
然而,德尔马斯特罗和马丁内斯·戈登解释说,国际能源署报告中更有针对性和实用的政策建议“应该(被纳入)一个明确的供热脱碳国家行动计划中,而这正是中国目前所缺乏的”。
该计划将使中国能够为热泵的使用设定量化目标,向市场发出明确信号,并促进对研发、制造和部署的更广泛投资。

与此同时,报告还建议:对新建建筑提出更严格的性能要求、制定更严格的能效基准、在建筑规范中纳入热泵安装要求,以及将国家碳排放权交易体系范围扩大到工业领域,这些都可以推动热泵的应用。
报告补充称,贷款、税收抵免和其他财政支持机制可以解决消费者不愿支付高昂的前期安装费用的问题。
北方城市天津为购买空气源热泵的用户提供了2.5万元(3700美元)的补贴,但这种做法(尤其在城市地区)并不普遍。
报告说,提高人们对工业热泵益处的认识并降低工业用电成本,可加快轻工业对热泵的采用。
电价激励措施已促使农村居民区从煤炭供暖转变为天然气供暖。根据国际能源署的计算,在北京的农村地区,类似的电价激励措施以及对安装热泵的补贴意味着热泵已成为当地家庭最便宜的取暖选择。
报告指出,在全国范围内推广这一政策可以“进一步提高热泵在目前电价明显高于天然气的地区的竞争力”。
其他可使热泵对消费者更具吸引力的措施包括,将热泵与太阳能电池板或太阳能光热解决方案相结合,以及调整电力系统以提供阶梯电价和分时电力市场措施。
最后,报告称,更多地回收废弃能源并结合热能储存技术,可以“通过将多余电力……转化为热能并储存起来供冬季供暖使用,从而优化供热”。
报告补充说,“以河北北部为例,到2050年,热泵从可再生能源和废热中回收的热力可占到冬季区域供热量的80%”。
The post 国际能源署:热泵可帮助中国减少75%为建筑供暖而产生的碳排放 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Supreme Court’s Limitation on Wetlands Protection Will Make Flooding Worse
A new study calculates the dollar value of wetlands in reducing river flooding. But in Sackett vs. EPA, the high court rolled back protections for nature’s first line of defense.
The destruction of wetlands in the United States has increased the amount of flood insurance claims by $10 billion over the past 40 years, a phenomenon expected to worsen in tandem with climate change, according to new research.
Supreme Court’s Limitation on Wetlands Protection Will Make Flooding Worse
Climate Change
Young South Africans take up sustainable agriculture for food security
In a school in South Africa, a group of students stare at a row of small plants growing in a greenhouse. Each one is involved in the lesson, caring for the growing crops.
But this is no ordinary classroom setting. These children are learning about aquaponics, a method of growing plants and fish in a mutually beneficial water system. This ancient technique of food production is now being taught to millions of schoolchildren after being introduced by the South African government seven years ago.
Laerskool Kempton Park on the edge of Johannesburg was one of the first schools to introduce the subject with the aim of improving food security. This is a serious challenge in a country where an estimated 19.7 million people, or around 30% of the population, experience moderate levels of food insecurity, meaning that they struggle to afford enough food for a healthy, balanced diet.
Bringing the farm to school
Aquaponics is a way of supporting communities to access food in a sustainable and efficient way. The solution is simple: fish waste is turned into available nutrients by bacteria in the water. Plants absorb these nutrients and the cleaned water is returned to the fish tank.
There are multiple benefits to this approach. The system doesn’t require chemical fertilisers, soil or large tracts of land. It is also highly efficient, with recirculated water being used over and over again. This is an important feature in areas of South Africa that experience drought or unpredictable weather.
Agricultural subsidies can be repurposed for a just and sustainable rural transition
Aquaponics can offer a range of benefits depending on the local context. In South Africa, townships in major cities such as Johannesburg don’t always have the space to produce their own food, while in other places, such as the Northern Cape, extreme weather is making agriculture much harder.


At Laerskool Kempton Park, the students have benefited from the innovative work of INMED, a non-profit organisation that supports vulnerable children and families in the country.
INMED has trained hundreds of teachers and over 7,000 children on the benefits of aquaponics. With the help of funding from the Adaptation Fund through the UNDP-Adaptation Fund Climate Innovation Accelerator (AFCIA), the organisation was able to develop its own aquaponics system to be used in schools.
Scaling up the solution
INMED describes its prototype as a ‘plug and play’ system, designed to be modular and easy to install and manage. The system includes a 2,000-litre fish tank powered by a solar pump to circulate water. The design is simple with a view that it could be easily replicated across different school settings.
Unathi Sihlahla, director at INMED South Africa, told Climate Home News that “aquaponics speaks to a number of challenges… including limited access to nutritious food, high youth unemployment, water scarcity, and in many cases, poor or no access to arable land.”
INMED’s prototype allows communities to work around these problems as it doesn’t need soil and uses far less water than conventional agriculture.
“We’ve seen schools that previously had no food production now able to grow vegetables consistently, while also producing fish. That food often goes straight into school meals or supports vulnerable households nearby,” Sihlahla added. The project estimates that over 5,300 kilogrammes of food have been harvested in each quarter the system has been operating.
As aquaponics is now part of the school curriculum, many educational departments across South Africa have been looking at ways to teach the subject. INMED’s innovative design could provide a handy solution. The organisation has already started to roll it out across different provinces and a new collaboration with the Eastern Cape Provincial Department of Education is in the works. INMED is also scaling the ‘plug and play’ model in Tanzania.


Giving youth a sense of pride
For educators, teaching schoolchildren new agricultural skills is not only about improving food security, but also about creating the next generation of farmers. This group will need to grow food with the increased threat of extreme weather events and having knowledge of alternative methods, such as aquaponics, could be key.
“Agriculture is not seen as something young people want to go into, but when they are exposed to something like aquaponics, it feels modern and relevant,” said Sihlahla, adding that some students have started their own projects at home or are looking to continue studying the method.
“There’s also a sense of pride. Producing food that supports your school or community changes how young people see themselves and their role.”
Engaging the next generation
The Adaptation Fund’s support for young people extends beyond South Africa. Several other related projects aim to equip youth with practical skills for climate adaptation.
In Costa Rica, a $10-million project implemented by private foundation Fundecooperación included several creative youth-focused programmes in climate-vulnerable areas. It trained young people in coral reef restoration and farming techniques, involved high school students in community water resource monitoring and management, shared knowledge on adaptation through a theatre tour in schools, and created an art mural competition using AI.
Extreme heat is rewriting food security. The best fixes are already within reach
In Lesotho, meanwhile, climate education is being integrated into the school curriculum through climate-smart agriculture materials and teacher training rolled out across primary and secondary schools. This is equipping students from an early age with practical, locally relevant knowledge to build resilience.
“Children and young people are among the most vulnerable to climate change,” said Mikko Ollikainen, head of the Adaptation Fund. “These programmes are not only training young people in adaptation but empowering them.”
Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK.
The post Young South Africans take up sustainable agriculture for food security appeared first on Climate Home News.
Young South Africans take up sustainable agriculture for food security
Climate Change
Santa Marta process can confront trade protection for fossil fuels, experts say
Just as Colombia – a coal-producing country that has halted new exploration licenses for hydrocarbons – was set to host the first fossil fuel phase-out summit in late April, the government received notice from a foreign energy firm operating on its soil. It was being sued for millions of dollars.
One day before Colombia hosted representatives from around 60 countries for the first Global Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, Spain-based firm Termocandelaria Power, which operates two of the country’s diesel- and gas-fired power plants, sued the government for $198 million alleging a breach of investor protection rules under a bilateral agreement.
Termocandelaria said government measures since 2024 have prevented its Colombian subsidiaries from receiving full payment for the power they supplied to a public utility, while the Colombian government justified its actions as needed to guarantee financial solvency and deliver electricity to rural communities.
While Termocandelaria declined to comment for this article, the company said in a press release last month that investment protection treaties “are designed to provide a stable and predictable legal framework for long-term investments in strategic sectors”.
The timing shows how trade agreements that offer investors protection when government decisions are seen as causing harm to their business – a system known as investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) – can hamper the transition away from fossil fuels even when countries are pushing for it. Governments in the Global South are particularly exposed, experts told Climate Home News.
As part of the official academic contribution to the Santa Marta conference, researchers recommended that governments should “recognise” ISDS as a barrier to the energy transition, and called for negotiations on an international initiative to dismantle ISDS protection for fossil fuel investments, either through “a new standalone” international agreement or as part of a broader treaty.
Mario Osorio, a research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), said Termocandelaria’s claim against Colombia “puts in perspective how serious, concrete and real these threats are” for developing countries.
Osorio said the second fossil fuel transition conference – to be held next year in Tuvalu – presents an opportunity for advancing ISDS reform from discussion to “something more concrete”.

Colombia pledges to exit ISDS
ISDS is a mechanism in international trade that allows foreign corporations – many of them linked to fossil fuel interests – to sue governments in international arbitration courts. One 2022 study estimated that possible legal claims from fossil fuel investors could reach $340 billion.
In the lead-up to the Santa Marta conference, Colombian President Gustavo Petro pledged to exit the ISDS system by reviewing Colombia’s 129 investment protection agreements. This came after more than 200 economists sent Petro an open letter urging Colombia to abandon the ISDS system.
Eunjung Lee, a senior policy advisor at UK-based think-tank E3G, said the Santa Marta conference had helped elevate ISDS reform as a key element of the transition away from fossil fuels, despite the issue remaining relatively little-known, even among climate negotiators.
She added that governments tend to be cautious about discussing ISDS at climate summits, as these treaties also implicate trade and economy ministries. “If it is not your file, then you can’t really say much about it and taking action is not necessarily up to you,” she explained.
Kyla Tienhaara, Canada Research Chair in Economy and Environment and a professor at Queen’s University who has worked on the issue for two decades, said the conference in Santa Marta marked a new approach, and that Colombia had placed ISDS “prominently in the agenda”.
The next transition conference presents an opportunity for governments to land on something more practical, particularly under the agreed work stream on “macroeconomic dependence and financial architecture”, but it will depend on the co-chairs Tuvalu and Ireland, she said.
Ireland was sued in May by oil company Lansdowne for failing to award a lease in the Barryroe offshore field. The claim was made under the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), which fossil fuel companies have used to sue several governments over the consequences of enacting their climate policies.
Following a similar move by some other European states, Ireland left the ECT in April while the Santa Marta conference was ongoing, but existing fossil fuel investments are still protected for 20 years under a “sunset clause”.
“Disappointing” conference report
Despite the prominence of the issue in the conference rooms, experts told Climate Home that the chairs’ takeaways report was “disappointing”, as it did not explicitly mention ISDS as a key obstacle to the energy transition.
The Netherlands, which co-hosted the summit, may have faced conflicting interests, said Tienhaara, as it is second only to the US as a “home state” for the investors bringing the most ISDS cases, including foreign companies structuring their investments through the country.
The Dutch government also withdrew from the ECT last year, which means it understands and has acted on the threat of investment treaties to climate action, the researcher said. “Unfortunately, they seem unwilling to extend their concern to the harm that these treaties cause in other countries, particularly in the Global South,” she added.
Lee of E3G said Global North countries like the Netherlands tend to export capital to developing countries, which is why they seek to protect their investors’ interests and are unlikely to drive a dismantling of the ISDS system themselves.
Developing countries like Colombia, which have been negatively affected by ISDS claims, have an incentive in “voicing their concerns” and forming a bloc around this topic. “Uniting Global South countries can make a stronger case,” Lee said.
The post Santa Marta process can confront trade protection for fossil fuels, experts say appeared first on Climate Home News.
Santa Marta process can confront trade protection for fossil fuels, experts say
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