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Xpansiv Sees Surge in VCM Activity, Spot N-GEO Price More Than Double

Xpansiv’s verified carbon market (VCM) experienced notable dynamics last week, with an increase in buyers and competitive price bids. A participant highlighted this “dynamism in the market,” which was evidenced by a significant number of trades matched on the CBL spot exchange.

The data presented in this report is from Xpansiv Data and Analytics, which provides comprehensive spot firm and indicative bids/offers, as well as transaction data. 

Xpansiv supports the CBL, the world’s largest spot environmental commodity exchange, offering a daily and historical bid, offer, and transaction data for carbon credits, compliance, and voluntary renewable energy certificates, and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) traded on the CBL platform. The spot data is enriched by forward prices from top market intermediaries, aggregated registry statistics, and ratings from leading providers.

Key Carbon Credit Transactions and Prices

A noteworthy transaction included a 5,000 metric ton spot N-GEO trade at $1.15, aligning with the prices of over 200,000 tons of N-GEO-eligible credit OTC transactions settled via the exchange. This carbon price level was more than double the contract settlement from the previous week. 

Meanwhile, CME Group’s CBL N-GEO December futures settled at $1.01, showing a rare discount to the spot N-GEO. The CBL N-GEO, CBL GEO, and CBL C-GEO futures all closed the week with minor movements of $0.01 on light trading volume.

CBL GEO Standardized VCM contracts

CME Group CBL GEO futures contracts

Several project-specific credits were also matched on the CBL screen. These included:

  • VCS 2250 vintage 2020 Pakistani Delta Blue carbon credits: 3,678 credits matched at $30.00.
  • VCS 674 vintage 2018 Indonesian Rimba Raya credits: 6,363 credits transacted at $7.80.
  • VCS 595 vintage 2020 United States Anew Elk Forestry Project credits: $18.00.
  • VCS 1477 vintage 2019 Indonesian Katingan credits: $5.50.
  • Vintage 2015 Katingan credits: $5.00.
  • VCS 2886 vintage 2022 Malawi cookstoves credits: $3.99.
  • ACR 556 vintage 2019 United States Industrial Process credits: $2.75.
  • VCS 1115 vintage 2018 Brazilian AFOLU credits: $2.50.
  • ACR 455 vintage 2018 United States Industrial Process units: $2.00.
  • VCS 1753 vintage 2020 Indian bundled solar credits: $1.25.

An additional 200,000-plus tons of OTC transactions were settled via CBL’s automated post-trade settlement infrastructure, bringing the exchange’s total volume to 325,079 tons.

The 20-day moving average price for recent-vintage nature credits stood at $7.03, while technology instruments averaged $1.30.

What’s Happening in North American REC Market?

PJM REC market activity saw significant trading, particularly with Virginia REC trades and larger New Jersey solar REC transactions. Pricing remained stable across PJM, with New Jersey solar RECs closing at $208.00 as energy year 2024 concluded. This showed an uptick at the end of the week. 

North American REC MarketsVirginia markets experienced slight price increases for 2023 and 2024 vintages, closing at $35.40 and $35.75, respectively.

In NEPOOL markets, Massachusetts solar REC II traded at $243.00, up from $230.00 in late May. Meanwhile, Massachusetts solar REC I and Class I markets were relatively quiet. Maine Class I markets saw a 0.8% increase week-over-week, closing at $39.40.

The VCM demonstrated increased activity and competitive trading last week, indicating growing interest and engagement from market participants. Xpansiv continues to provide essential data and analytics, supporting informed trading decisions in the carbon and renewable energy markets.

The post Xpansiv Sees Surge in VCM Activity, Spot N-GEO Price More Than Double appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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