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As artificial intelligence (AI) is taking over industries, its impact on global copper demand is becoming increasingly evident. BHP, the world’s largest mining company, has warned that AI’s growth and clean energy transition could aggravate an already looming copper shortage. With copper’s critical role in powering data centers, EVs, and renewable energy systems, the metal’s future availability is a growing global concern.

BHP Predicts Soaring Copper Demand in The Future

BHP’s chief financial officer Vandita Pant has reported to Financial Times that the company predicts the global demand for copper to soar by 72% by 2050. This clearly shows a rising trend from 30.4 million tons in 2021 to 52.5 million tons annually. She further explained the surge to be driven by the increasing need for copper in electric vehicles (EVs), solar farms, and particularly, data centers powered by AI technologies.

Pant added,

“Today, data centers are less than 1 percent of copper demand, but that is expected to be 6 to 7 percent by 2050.”

Notably, AI applications, which require energy-intensive computing, are expected to increase copper demand by an additional 3.4 million tons each year by 2050. The copper dominates the power transmission and cooling systems that keep these facilities operational. As AI continues to drive the expansion of data centers, its infrastructure will rely heavily on copper, intensifying competition for the red metal.

To sum up, BHP right now sees a temporary weak copper demand but predicts strong long-term potential.

copper demand

Global Copper Shortage an Imminent Challenge, Reports Financial Times

BHP’s concerns come amidst a broader conversation about the future of copper supply. A copper shortfall is expected in the medium to long term, triggering a race among mining companies to secure access to copper deposits.

Financial Times reported, that earlier this year, BHP failed to acquire Anglo American, a major copper producer, in a bid to strengthen its position in the copper market. Though the $49 billion offer was rejected, BHP continues to invest heavily in copper assets. In July 2024, the company teamed up with Canada’s Lundin Mining to acquire South America-focused Filo Corp. for $3 billion, securing copper-rich assets in Chile and Argentina.

Colin Hamilton, commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets said,

“Data centers themselves are becoming incrementally less copper intensive, but getting the electricity to them, that is copper intensive”

Despite these efforts, global copper inventories have been declining. In CME warehouses, copper stock fell by 71% between March and July, reaching their lowest levels since 2008. Furthermore, new copper mines aren’t being developed quickly enough to meet rising demand, as it takes nearly more than a decade to actively set up a project. This lag in supply could lead to a significant shortage of copper in the coming decades.

CopperSource: IEA

Is China’s Slowdown Holding Copper Prices Steady?

While the long-term outlook for copper remains robust, the short-term market is facing challenges. This year weak demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, has weighed on prices. Copper is currently trading at around $9,207 per tonne, down 15% from its peak earlier this year. Media reports say that concerns about China’s property sector and slower-than-expected economic growth have contributed to this decline.

Most recently Bloomberg reported,

  • The latest 3-month closing price for LME copper is $9,515.00, reflecting a 1.22% increase.

Even The Wall Street Bank has projected copper prices to average $10,100 per metric ton in 2025 which is significantly lower than its earlier forecast of $15,000.

copper price forecast

Source: Technopedia

However, analysts and mining executives agree that copper’s demand remains solid. The energy transition, driven by renewable energy projects and electrification, will be a key growth driver for copper demand. BHP expects that as the world advances towards its net-zero goals, the demand for copper will certainly spike, especially in developing countries.

A Race for Copper in the Age of AI: Who Are the Top Players?

As copper prices hit a two-month high, major mining firms like Anglo American, Southern Copper, Vale, Ero Copper, Rio Tinto (RIO), Antofagasta, Freeport-McMoRan, and Glencore gained the spotlight on the London Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the recent half-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve has contributed to broader gains in the metals market, making it an exciting time for copper investors.

copper IEA

Source: IEA

The growing influence of AI and the energy transition is reshaping the global copper market. BHP’s warnings about a potential shortage underscore the importance of securing copper resources for the future. As the demand for AI-driven data centers and clean energy solutions rises, industries are bracing up for the coming copper crunch.

We can see how significant sustainable mining and innovation in resource management have become more critical than ever. Copper, once only made for traditional industries, is now at the forefront of the global energy transition.

Well, the race to secure copper mines is on, with mining giants like BHP positioning themselves to meet the future needs of the tech world. Nonetheless, the question remains: Will the supply of copper keep up with the rapid advancements in AI and the shift toward renewable energy? Let’s wait and watch!

The post Will AI Drive A Global Copper Shortage? BHP Rings the Alarm appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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