The COP process seems to have the ability to bring out the best and the worst in me.
I always consider these annual UN events an anomaly –– its the ‘dreamscape’ of what climate action could be, and also a prime example of everything that is wrong with climate action. Hundreds of cultures coming together to talk about climate change. Greenwashing and fossil fuel lobbyists taking up too much space. All at the same time.
As I close out my first 24 hours in Dubai, I’ve already been on a rollercoaster of emotions. I think this is the reality of anyone thinking about climate change for days on end, but there’s something about being at COP that makes it feel heavier and lighter simultaneously.
I know this might not make sense, but let me try to explain.
Dubai is beautiful. It’s a city that makes you look. Burj Khalifa glitters hundreds of floors into the sky. The architecture is futuristic and modern — orbs, and silver, and strange angles that make you question, “how’d they do that?” It’s a place that visually inspires the thought that anything can be possible; creativity in this way is thriving.
Dubai also hasn’t earned my trust. The 20-foot-high advertisements gracing bridges and highways as you drive into the city boast large businesses partnering with COP28 with vague taglines. “Towards Tomorrow Together.” Luxury car dealerships line the highways, selling fossil fuel lifestyles. Indoor ski hills and penguins are a taxi-ride away even though we’re in the middle of the desert. It’s a place that seems to do things “just because they can.”
I’m reeling a bit from the juxtaposition. I think it’s capturing exactly how I feel about climate change action right now. Everything is possible, and yet we’re not committing to changing how we survive, as human beings, on this planet.
Part of my role as crafting the negotiations summary for the Window into COP digests is to be well-informed about COP happenings, narratives, actions, and failings. I read so many articles about the big announcements and progress, and then I read about how they’re actually just pledges, not action. I read about the innovative solutions happening in the Global South, and then I read some more about how they’re not getting funded with anywhere near the amount of capital they need. I read about closed door meetings. I read about inaccessibility. I read about false solutions and a lack of ambition.
As I prepared to leave our Airbnb for my first day on the ground this morning (attending a side event called the Climate Action Innovation Zone), I was overwhelmed. I had just finished all that reading for today’s digest, and I couldn’t shake this sad, deep feeling in my gut. Like even though I’m here, and we’re all here, doing what we can, we’re also part of the problem. Thoughts like, “It’s too big.” We can’t do it at the scale we need to.
And then I got up and I went to the Innovation Zone, and my entire mood shifted. And it’s because of the people I met. The people I connected with from around the world.
Someone from Moscow who works at a climate tech company. She sends her daughter to school in Dubai, and she’s worked in the business sector for more than 20 years. She believes that businesses have a role to play.
A young woman from Kenya who makes biochar, a material created from biomass waste that increases soil fertility and decreases drought. She was representing Kenya and Uganda, trying to build momentum for a community-based project that could help farmers in her region.
A man from Scotland who was passionate about waste management and providing services to communities on how to actually change their habits. He was advocating for all islands, from the Global North to the Global South, to decarbonize urban life and share their learnings. My favorite line? “The world is just one big island. And we’re all on it.”
As I settle down for the evening and prepare to enter the Blue Zone tomorrow, I’m ruminating on one thing that hasn’t left me since this morning.
The climate crisis is truly a connection crisis. An inability to talk to each other.
To move each other. To inspire the understanding of why a specific solution matters to one specific community, and why it doesn’t work for others. And it’s not our fault, but it also is entirely our fault. There’s so many factors at play on why climate change is hard to communicate about, and why it’s hard to understand one another in general. An inability to see the world, and each other, in all of the gray areas.
The climate crisis isn’t this or that. It’s all of the above. It’s every option from the solutions buffet, please, so we can phase out fossil fuels while also decarbonizing every part of our society. It’s holding leaders and businesses accountable, and giving land back to Indigenous communities. It’s scaling innovative solutions that involve tech, and agriculture, and education, while also pouring funding into communities getting ravaged by impacts.
I’m eager to connect with more people tomorrow, and the next day, and the next, until I fly out next week.
Selfishly, so I can feed the part of me that finds so much joy in connecting with people who care just as much as I do. Because I need joy to sustain this work. But I need the deep, sad feeling in my gut to ground me in how much losing this planet as we know it hurts; that I need to do something about it.
And collectively, so we can build a stronger climate movement and understanding, and make the world feel just a little bit smaller than it did the day before.
Lauren Boritzke Smith manages online audience engagement, communications and branding, marketing, and media outreach for Climate Generation’s programming, fundraising, and events. She was introduced to the climate justice movement through her interest in food access, public health, and stewarding plants – from reporting on food deserts, participating in WWOOF (World Wide Opportunities on Organic Farms), to advocating for the importance of diverse ecosystems. Lauren has bachelor’s degrees in Strategic Communications and English from UW-Madison, and approaches nonprofit communications and marketing with a community lens, bringing enthusiasm for the importance of art and story in building change and centering voices that are most impacted by the issue at hand. After college, Lauren served in AmeriCorps VISTA, building community outreach capacity and development strategies for a tutoring and creative writing nonprofit in St. Paul. In her free time, she enjoys traveling around to state and national parks with her husband and pup River, designing graphic art and pressing flowers, and playing the banjo.
The post The climate crisis is a connection crisis appeared first on Climate Generation.
Claver Gatete is Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. Jason Veysey is Energy Modeling Program Director and Senior Scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute. Lisa Sachs is Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment at Columbia University.
The case for global energy transition has rarely been clearer. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year exposed the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems, while the falling cost of renewables, the rising penetration of electric vehicles, and the growing value of demand flexibility have made the direction of travel obvious. The benefits of a clean, secure, integrated system are no longer in dispute. What remains unclear is how to build it.
Countries around the world have called for faster renewable energy deployment and alternative energy arrangements. A secure, affordable, resilient, decarbonised system requires specific investments in specific places in a specific sequence, optimised across sectors and borders. But very few governments have the analytical foundation to translate those imperatives into investment.
The two instruments that are supposed to determine investment priorities for decarbonisation – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and country platforms – cannot answer the most basic question facing any country undertaking an energy transition: what should the energy system look like?
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To close this gap, every country needs a bankable, economy-wide optimisation model for its energy system. A model is not a plan, but it can help answer the critical question of what the future energy system should look like. It shows how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, calculates investment requirements and sequencing, and quantifies how system costs are affected by assumptions, policies, and exogenous variables like trade policy and financing terms.
Tool for efficient investment
Optimisation is a simplified way of simulating an energy system, but it can be an extremely powerful tool for moving energy planning from reactive (how do we manage the disparate actions in the energy system?) to intentional (what energy system underpins our national objectives?). A model can show how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, and how investment requirements are quantified and sequenced.
Optimisation models can treat the energy system and the sectors it serves as an integrated whole, optimising across sectors and projects in ways that can be mutually reinforcing. If considered independently, growth in industrial demand, transport electrification, and digital infrastructure can add stress to the energy system. But an optimised plan can arrange these and other changes in an efficient, synergistic way.
Two to tango: How governments can unlock private investment for national climate goals
New load can be added where low-cost power is available; industrial customers can ensure the viability of investments in energy supply; electric vehicle charging policy can smooth load curves and reduce costs for all consumers.
Additionally, optimisation modeling can also change the financeability of investments. Taken alone, each project faces uncertainty about the rest of the system, which raises the cost of capital and causes projects to stall or unwind after contracts are signed. A coherent, optimised plan makes visible the coordination that private capital would otherwise have to bet on: identified offtake, sequenced and committed transmission, contracted power supply, and so on.
What COP31 and COP32 should do
The upcoming COPs in Turkey and Ethiopia can shift the center of gravity of international climate cooperation from fragmented commitments to planning. Three moves are urgently needed.
First, optimised, economy-wide, long-term energy system planning must be the foundation on which any meaningful NDC, country platform, or finance commitment rests. NDCs are typically drafted by environment or single-line ministries, with limited cross-sectoral input from ministries of energy, finance, and planning. They contain targets, derived from sectoral strategies or national commitments, not from an analytically grounded picture of what the energy system should look like and what investments would make it work. Country platforms are generally a portfolio of investments assembled from existing project pipelines, rather than derived from a system-level analysis of what an optimised, decarbonised energy system would require.
Second, recognise regions as a key planning unit. Modern integrated energy systems are inherently regional. Renewable endowments are unevenly distributed; balancing variable supply across borders lowers aggregate cost, reduces redundant backup capacity, and unlocks economies of scale no individual nation can achieve. Many energy investments in Southeast Asia, East Africa, Southern Africa and Central Asia may only be financeable in a regional context. Assessing domestic infrastructure without regional optimisation perpetuates the perception that decarbonisation is more expensive than it is.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
Third, finance the planning capacity. A coordinated commitment by multilateral development banks, bilateral donors, and philanthropic partners to help every region and its constituent countries develop and maintain their own modelling capability, with open-source tools and regional analytical hubs, would close the most consequential gap in the current architecture. The cost is small relative to current spending on country platforms, failed project preparation, and misallocated infrastructure investment.
This includes supporting regional institutions such as the ASEAN Centre for Energy, the African Energy Commission, regional power pools, and the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization to determine what optimised regional systems require. Country-by-country pledging, repeated at every COP, will not deliver what meaningfully integrated systems can.
The 2026 energy crisis made the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems newly visible. That window of clarity will close. The international community should seize the moment to build the planning foundation that has been missing for thirty years, rather than commissioning another round of NDCs or pledges, striving for outcomes neither was designed to deliver.
The post Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition
The world is currently experiencing what is expected to become the strongest El Niño on record – dubbed a “super El Niño” by many.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.
This temporarily raises global temperatures and reshapes rainfall and extreme weather around the world – impacting the lives of billions of people.
The current El Niño event began in June and is expected to last into 2027.
El Niño is part of a wider climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
The ENSO cycle also has a cool phase, known as La Niña, as well as a “neutral” phase. El Niño and La Niña events typically last between nine and 12 months, but can go on longer.
Below, Carbon Brief explains how the ENSO cycle works, its impacts on extreme weather and global temperatures and why this El Niño event is projected to be the most intense since records began.
The post Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-explainer/index.html
The second-largest reservoir in the US reached a record-low water height on Saturday – just days after the country’s largest reservoir broke its own record.
Both Lake Mead and Lake Powell are located on the Colorado River.
They provide water for populations across seven US states in the south-western US, with around 40 million people getting some or all of their municipal water from the Colorado River.
The river also provides water for around 5.5m acres (22,258 square kilometres) of farmland across Colorado, Arizona, California and the other states in the river basin.
Experts tell Carbon Brief that climate change, population growth and over-consumption are all contributing to the current record-low levels of the reservoirs.
Record lows
At full capacity, Lakes Mead and Powell can hold a combined 68 cubic kilometres of water – enough to supply all household consumption in the contiguous US for nearly 1.5 years. However, the water level in both reservoirs has been declining for decades.
The chart below shows the water level of Lake Mead, in metres above mean sea level. The reservoir, which began to fill in 1935 following the construction of the Hoover Dam, has a “full pool” maximum capacity of 347.60 metres. The water level in Lake Mead reached a record low of 317.11 metres on 7 August.
The following chart shows the water level of Lake Powell, in metres above mean sea level. Lake Powell’s full-pool level is 1,127.76 metres.
While the reservoir reached its maximum capacity several times in the 1980s, it has not done so since. On 15 August, the water level in Lake Powell was recorded at a new record-low of 1,072.87 metres.
Both reservoirs have continued to decline in the days since breaking their respective records. The downward trend will largely continue in both lakes until next spring, when the snowpack in the mountains of the Upper Colorado River Basin begins to melt, says Dr Jack Schmidt, a senior research scientist at Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The big dilemma of the moment is that we’re only in the middle of August, and we have no assurance of what the coming winter will be. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will be depleting overall total basin reservoir storage from now until, roughly, early April.”
Compounding factors
The record lows across the two reservoirs are the result of several compounding factors, experts tell Carbon Brief.
Since the turn of the 20th century, the amount of water flowing along the Upper Colorado River has declined by about 20%. Research suggests that half of this decline can be attributed to human-induced climate change.
Most of the river’s streamflow comes from the snowpack of the Upper Colorado River Basin, which stretches across five western US states but is primarily located in Colorado and Utah.
This region has been gripped by a historic “megadrought” for more than a quarter of a century. Nearly half of the megadrought’s intensity over 2000-18 is attributable to climate change, according to a 2020 study.
At the same time, the increasing population in the US south-west has put added pressure on the Colorado River’s water supply. The number of people obtaining some or all of their water from the Colorado system has grown by 15 million (around 60%) since 1992.
Schmidt tells Carbon Brief:
“There’s an ultimate cause of the present water crisis, and there’s a proximate cause. The ultimate cause is a warming climate, a warming planet and a pretty clear correlation between warming conditions and decreased runoff in the Colorado River Basin.
“The proximate cause is that in this messy democratic republic of ours, big policy decisions that match the variability of the climate occur painfully slowly – with intense political negotiations – and only incrementally.”
On 31 July, the US Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water resources in the western US, released an environmental impact statement on its proposed post-2026 strategy for managing Lakes Powell and Mead. The strategy itself has not been released yet.
Schmidt notes that the statement does appear to give the Bureau flexibility to “respond to crisis” by reducing the delivery of water to several states. However, he adds:
“They acknowledge it won’t work if we just stay critically dry, and of course every climate model for the 21st century, especially with a continually warming planet, says that that’s exactly what’s going to happen.”
The post Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels
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