Published

3 years ago

November 24, 2023

Alice Rush

Climate Change

DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño begins | COP31 hosts eye electrification | Atlantic current monitoring at risk

Published

6 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

El Niño begins

‘DOMINO WEATHER’: The natural weather phenomenon El Niño, which can raise global heat and “bring domino weather effects across the planet”, is now underway, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on Thursday, reported the Washington Post. The Japanese Meteorological Administration also identified the start of El Niño on Wednesday, said Bloomberg. According to the Japanese weather agency, the event is “expected to intensify in the coming months and become very strong later in the year, persisting into at least December”, reported the outlet.

‘SUPER EVENT’: BBC News reported that “many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called ‘super’ El Niño” and be “among the strongest ever recorded”. It added: “Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year – most likely in 2027 – with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.”

COP31 hosts eye electrification

‘35 BY 35’: COP31 hosts Turkey and Australia have called for countries to support a target of electrifying 35% of global energy use by 2035, reported Politico. Speaking at climate talks in Bonn, Germany, Turkish minister Murat Kurum said that electrification would be a “flagship priority” at the COP31 summit, noted the publication. Kurum added that “electrifying daily life, from transport to buildings and industry” could “protect families and businesses from volatile energy markets”, said the outlet.

WASTE AND BUILDINGS: Climate Home News reported that electrification was one of three priorities unveiled by the COP31 hosts, with the other two being waste and buildings. On buildings, the COP31 hosts “quietly overhauled [their] goal”, Climate Home News said. It reported: “An initial press statement on Monday set out a target ‘to achieve at least a 25% increase in energy efficiency in buildings by 2035’. But…on Tuesday, that was replaced with a different goal to ‘reduce energy consumption intensity in the building sector by at least 25% by 2035’.”

‘HARDEST’ CHALLENGE: Elsewhere in Bonn, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said “governments must stop revisiting climate commitments and start delivering on them”, South Africa’s Mail and Guardian reported. It quoted Stiell as saying: “Tackling the global climate crisis is the hardest but most important thing humanity has ever tried to do together…We are not yet where we need to be. But we are somewhere we have never been before.”

Around the world

ETS EXTRA: The EU has agreed “stronger” price controls on “ETS2”, its planned trading system for heating and transport emissions, according to Reuters.
OCEAN STRESS: The rate of sea level rise has doubled in 10 years amid “severe and accelerating” pressures on oceans, said a UN report covered by Time.
CLIMATE MIGRANTS: Donald Trump’s “immigration crackdown is largely targeting people from the countries most vulnerable to displacement from climate-driven disasters”, according to Guardian analysis.
ULTRA-RICH: Investments by the world’s ultra-rich in 2022 are linked to nearly $1tn in climate damages, according to a Greenpeace Africa analysis covered by BusinessGreen.

Two

The number of bidders for Trump’s auction for drilling rights in an Arctic wildlife refuge, with big oil companies “sitting out the sale”, reported Bloomberg.

Latest climate research

As the Arctic warms, increased iceberg activity could “reshape” deep-sea habitats and “elevate” navigational hazards as maritime traffic expands | Nature
Around 11% of the population of the world’s “rarest great ape”, the Tapanuli orangutan, is estimated to have perished in an extreme rainfall event in Indonesia in 2025 | Current Biology
Canada’s forests are shifting from a carbon sink to a carbon source, due to “wildfires disturbances” | Global Change Biology

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Solar power has overtaken gas in Asia to become the region’s third largest electricity source behind coal and hydropower, according to Carbon Brief analysis of data from the thinktank Ember. Solar became the third largest electricity source for Asia on an annual basis in April 2026, according to the analysis. In the year to April 2026, solar generated 1,727 terawatt hours (TWh), while gas generated 1,711TWh, it added.

Spotlight

Atlantic current monitoring at risk

This week, Carbon Brief reports on how Trump plans could disrupt efforts to track a major ocean current.

The Irminger Sea, a patch of frigid ocean east of Greenland, plays an outsized role in the Earth’s climate.

Here, surface water that has travelled thousands of kilometres from the tropics grows cold and dense enough to sink to the ocean’s depths – a transformation that must occur for the water to begin a long journey back to the southern hemisphere.

This makes the Irminger Sea an “action centre” for the mighty Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the vast system of ocean currents that keeps temperatures in Europe mild.

Last week, the US government announced plans to dismantle ocean moorings installed in the Irminger Sea which, among other things, collect data on the health of the AMOC.

This came as part of a programme to “descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a $368m network of ocean sensors installed in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

Two of the moorings earmarked for removal in the Irminger Sea form part of an internationally funded, trans-Atlantic AMOC monitoring array, known as OSNAP, that stretches from Canada to Scotland.

Experts told Carbon Brief the move by the Trump administration highlights the vulnerability of AMOC observation systems around the world. These deep-sea moorings – scattered across the Atlantic – collect real-time data on, among other things, ocean current, temperature, pressure and biochemistry.

Prof Penny Holliday, chief scientific officer of the UK National Oceanography Centre, told Carbon Brief that the OSNAP array, as well as the RAPID array at 26N, are “entirely dependent” on research grants that have to be “continually reapplied for”.

“Funding is perilous all the time,” she said.

A report prepared last month by scientists for Nordic ministers exploring the security of funding for AMOC observing systems warned that RAPID and OSNAP were in “critical condition” and faced “material exposure over an 18-month horizon”. Meanwhile, other key basin-wide and global components of the global AMOC observing system were rated as “at risk”.

It is not just US funding that is uncertain. The report notes, for example, that the five-yearly funding the UK provides to RAPID and OSNAP is “at risk from 2027 due to year-on-year budget reductions” at the Natural Environmental Research Council.

(RAPID is funded by the US and UK, whereas OSNAP is backed by five different countries, with the US contributing half of the total financial support.)

Report co-author Dr Femke de Jong from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research told Carbon Brief that “continued AMOC observations” are under pressure in “multiple countries”. She said:

“While the risk of a declining AMOC to society is starting to be recognised, there is not yet a system or institution in place to guarantee a way to monitor it.”

AMOC monitoring arrays are still in their infancy – RAPID, the oldest, was launched in 2004. Two decades of data captured so far shows that the AMOC is slowing down. However, scientists will need many more years of data to be able to confidently link the decline to climate change, rather than natural variability in the ocean.

NOC’s Holliday points to the disconnect between scientific and funder timelines:

“The timescale of observations needed in order to be able to detect a climate change signal from the very naturally variable ocean is around 40-60 years…. [And yet], in the Netherlands, they have to apply for a new grant for their ocean moorings every two years. They are going to have to do that for 40 years.

“This is a very inefficient way of getting funding for what should be critical infrastructure.”

This spotlight first appeared in Cited, Carbon Brief’s new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free.

Watch, read, listen

‘BEYOND GROWTH’: A group of economists set out a “roadmap for eradicating poverty beyond growth” in the Guardian.

OIL CAMPAIGN: Politico reported on how “oil industry allies” are campaigning against attribution science, including by working to discredit a US National Academies report that “will examine research into the ways corporate climate pollution is intensifying natural disasters”.

‘FIGHT BACK’: For the Apocalyptic Optimist podcast, Dr Dana Fisher spoke to historian and author Dr Naomi Oreskes about how to “fight back” against climate misinformation.

Coming up

8-18 June: Bonn climate talks, Bonn, Germany
16-18 June: 11th Our ocean conference, Mombasa, Kenya
18 June: International Energy Agency Global Hydrogen Review 2026 report launch

Pick of the jobs

S-Curve Economics, head of road transport | Salary: £75,000-£80,000. Location: Remote (UK)
UK Department for Energy Security and Net-Zero, speechwriter to the secretary of state | Salary: £62,595-£69,765. Location: London (hybrid)
Basque Centre for Climate Change, postdoctoral researcher for JustBioSolar project | Salary: €27,040-€34,320. Location: Bilbao, Spain
Boston Globe climate science and environment reporter | Salary: Unknown. Location: Boston, US

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño begins | COP31 hosts eye electrification | Atlantic current monitoring at risk appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño begins | COP31 hosts eye electrification | Atlantic current monitoring at risk

Climate Change

Analysis: Solar overtakes gas power in Asia for first time ever

Published

7 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Alice Rush

Solar has overtaken gas power in Asia to become the continent’s third-largest source of electricity, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

The rapid expansion of solar power in nations such as China, India and Pakistan has seen its annual output increase nearly fourfold since 2020.

Asia accounts for around 60% of the world’s solar-power growth in this period, putting the continent at the heart of the global solar boom.

Coal and hydropower remain Asia’s largest sources of electricity, generating roughly 52% and 12% of the continent’s power each year, respectively.

Yet despite expectations that gas power would undergo “explosive growth” in the region, output has stalled due to supply disruptions, relatively high gas prices and growth in clean alternatives.

In contrast, solar has surged, generating some 1,727 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in the 12 months to April 2026.

As the chart below shows, this pushes it just ahead of gas, which generated 1,711TWh over the same period and has remained roughly flat for the past several years.

Electricity generation from solar (red) and gas (blue), TWh, on an annualised basis between December 2019 and May 2026. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of Ember data.

The milestone reflects wider trends in the global electricity mix, with monthly generation from both wind and solar surpassing gas generation globally for the first time in April 2026.

Asia’s solar expansion has been driven largely by China, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the growth in the region’s output since 2020.

Record installations in 2025 took China’s cumulative installed capacity to 1.2 terawatts (TW) by the end of the year.

China also dominates global solar supply chains, hosting more than 80% of solar manufacturing capacity.

This means it has played an important role in enabling solar deployment in other Asian countries through cheap solar-panel exports. Amid the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war, Chinese solar exports to Asia doubled to reach a record 39 gigawatts (GW) in March 2026.

Meanwhile, Asian countries have faced a number of challenges in expanding gas-power capacity. Most of these nations are reliant on imported liquified natural gas (LNG) to support their gas-power projects.

Around 81GW of planned gas capacity in Asia was cancelled in 2022 and 2023, amid LNG supply disruptions and price spikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

LNG import terminals and pipelines have faced delays and cancellations in south Asia and South Korea as a result of rising fuel and construction costs, as well as weak demand for gas power.

Global gas turbine shortages have also delayed plans to build new gas-power plants in Vietnam and the Philippines.

While Asia’s gas-power capacity increased by 22% between 2019 and 2024, gas-fired generation has only increased by a modest 6% over the same period. Existing gas plants are not always operating at high capacities, as gas is outcompeted by other fuels.

These trends are not uniform across the region, with increased generation in some countries – such as China and Taiwan – being offset by declines in others – such as Japan and India.

Although China has nearly doubled its gas -power generation in the past decade, gas supply issues and high prices make it less competitive than coal and renewables.

The expansion of clean energy has also reduced the need for gas-fired generation in many Asian countries. Pakistan’s widely reported “boom” in rooftop solar is one notable example of this trend.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the latest energy crisis has “renewed gas supply reliability and affordability concerns” among gas-importing countries in Asia, many of which are highly dependent on gas flows through the strait of Hormuz.

Methodology

The figures in this article are based on Ember’s monthly and annual electricity data for Asia.

Annual data was used for the year-end data points, as the coverage is more complete compared to the monthly data.

Rolling annual totals based on monthly data were used to interpolate between the annual data points.

The figures in the chart are based on Ember’s definition of Asia, which covers the following countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

This does not include some countries that are part of the continent of Asia and that use relatively large amounts of gas, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia.

The post Analysis: Solar overtakes gas power in Asia for first time ever appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: Solar overtakes gas power in Asia for first time ever

Climate Change

Nearly 100 civil society groups from Türkiye and Australia urge COP31 Presidency to take bold steps to transition away from fossil fuels

Published

10 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Alice Rush

Bonn, Germany, Friday 12 June 2026 — A diverse coalition of almost 100 civil society organisations representing Türkiye and Australia have released a joint statement at the Bonn climate conference urging the COP31 Presidency put the transition away from fossil fuels at the centre of the COP31 agenda.

The statement, signed by 94 organisations and addressed to Minister Murat Kurum (Türkiye) and Minister Chris Bowen (Australia), both attending the Bonn Climate Change Conference this week, emphasises that close cooperation between Türkiye and Australia brings a historic opportunity to make international progress in the transition away from fossil fuels, while walking the talk domestically and paving the way to a clean future within their respective borders.

By combining the diplomatic reach of both host nations with the long-standing climate leadership of the Pacific, COP31 should champion the action required to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The statement calls on the COP31 Presidency to:

Commit to own and advance the just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
Turn the Just Transition Mechanism – agreed upon at COP30 to enhance international cooperation as well as support and enable equitable and inclusive just transitions – into concrete actions through defined funding, clear timelines, and practical operational details that protect workers and vulnerable communities.
Enable meaningful progress in international climate finance to advance all pillars of climate action on mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, ensuring that “big polluters pay”.
Rebuild trust in the multilateral process by having a Presidency team that acts as an ‘honest broker.’ This includes protecting the integrity of negotiations from fossil fuel industry influence, which has had a worrying record presence in the last few COPs, and ensuring the full participation of civil society, Indigenous Peoples, women, youth, local communities, and upholding human rights.

The letter also urges Türkiye and Australia to inspire strong global outcomes in negotiations in Antalya in November, by leading by example, developing national roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels and taking bold decisions domestically.

Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific, Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “The Pacific is at the forefront of global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. From the beginning, we have worked to advance multilateral cooperation and strengthen the global climate regime — writing the 1.5°C redline into the Paris Agreement, establishing funding for loss and damage, and taking the world’s biggest problem to the world’s highest court. To the COP31 partnership, we bring the experience of 30 years of frontline leadership, the values of reciprocity and collective responsibility, and the warm hearts and unending resolve of our communities. We will continue to be the voice of science, justice and ambition. For us, phasing out fossil fuels and holding the line on 1.5°C is about survival. Together, we can ensure a safer, thriving future for the peoples of the Pacific and for communities worldwide.”

Tanyeli Behiç Sabuncu, WWF-Türkiye Climate and Energy Practice Manager, said: “As the President of COP31, Türkiye should not postpone leaving coal. One-third of the electricity mix in the country comes from it and new coal-fired power plant units are still being planned, despite losing both its economic and social licence. Phasing out fossil fuels is not merely an emission reduction goal. It is also a pathway toward a liveable world for people and nature as well as energy security for consumers and businesses. COP31 presents Türkiye a defining choice: stick to the choices of the past or lead a transformative shift toward a just and clean energy future. Announcing a coal phase-out date would send the clearest initial signal that the country takes its leadership role at COP seriously.

Denise Cauchi, CEO Climate Action Network Australia, said: “The fossil fuel era is ending. The escalating energy crisis is exposing the true costs of fossil fuel dependence—not only through worsening climate impacts, but also through global insecurity, energy price shocks and rising living costs. As the incoming President and President of Negotiations, Türkiye and Australia must put the 1.5°C temperature goal at the heart of COP31, which requires a managed, equitable transition away from coal, oil and gas, backed by finance and supported by a just transition. Australia must lead with credibility. As the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter, it needs a clear plan to phase out fossil fuels, including exports, and contribute its fair share of international climate finance.”

ENDS

Photos from the press conference will be added here after the event. The press conference will be live streamed and archived here

Media contact:
Kate O’Callaghan, Greenpeace on +61 406 231 892 (Whatsapp/Signal) or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org