Disseminated on behalf of Alaska Energy Metals Corporation.

On the surface, the global nickel market looks comfortable. Supply appears ample. Prices remain under pressure. Inventories continue to climb. However, this apparent balance hides a deeper problem. The world’s nickel supply has become heavily concentrated in one country, creating long-term risks that today’s surplus does not fully reflect.

The S&P Global Nickel CBS January 2026 report makes this point clear. While Indonesia continues to push large volumes of nickel into the market, warning signs are emerging. Policy uncertainty, slowing demand, and swelling inventories now shape the near-term outlook. At the same time, today’s oversupply is quietly setting the stage for future instability.

The Nickel Market is in Surplus, But Not in Balance

At first glance, the nickel market seems well supplied. S&P Global projects a 156,000-tonne surplus in 2026, even after Indonesia announced sharp cuts to its nickel ore quotas. This surplus explains why prices struggle to move higher, despite occasional rallies.

However, the quota cuts have not reduced output as much as expected. Indonesian smelters continue to run at high utilization rates. They rely on existing ore stockpiles and imports from the Philippines to keep production steady. As a result, global supply still runs ahead of demand.

This imbalance shows up clearly in inventories. LME nickel stocks climbed to 275,634 tonnes in January 2026, marking the largest inflows since 2019. Rising inventories signal that excess nickel has nowhere to go. Even Class 1 nickel remains widely available, keeping prices capped.

Weak Nickel Demand Keeps the Surplus Alive

Strong supply alone does not explain the surplus. Weak demand plays an equally important role.

S&P Global further analysed that in late 2025, manufacturing activity slowed across key regions. U.S. and Eurozone PMIs fell into contraction, weighed down by trade tariffs introduced under President Trump. These tariffs raised costs and disrupted supply chains, hurting industrial activity. At the same time, consumer confidence weakened, reducing demand for stainless steel and other nickel-intensive products.

China offered some support, but not enough to change the overall picture. Its PMI showed mild expansion, backed by measures in the 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan aimed at stabilizing the property sector. Even so, stainless steel production remains oversupplied, and EV battery makers continue to adjust designs to use less nickel.

As a result, near-term nickel demand growth stays muted. Despite this, speculative investors remain optimistic. Net long positions have stayed elevated for seven months, reflecting bets that supply disruptions will eventually outweigh weak fundamentals.

Is Oversupply More Than a Price Problem?

Oversupply does more than suppress prices. It distorts market balance.

When supply consistently exceeds demand, prices lose their ability to send clear signals. Even meaningful policy actions, such as Indonesia’s quota cuts, fail to trigger lasting price increases. The market simply absorbs the news and moves on.

At the same time, oversupply discourages investment outside low-cost regions. Higher-cost producers struggle to survive. In Australia, several operations have already cut output due to poor margins. These curtailments reduce supply diversity without tightening the market.

As a result, the world becomes more dependent on Indonesian nickel. While this keeps prices low today, it increases vulnerability tomorrow.

• ALSO SEE: Nickel Prices Hit $18,000 in 2026 Amid Global Oversupply, US Boosts Domestic Supply Chain

2030s Set to Flip the Nickel Market Balance

According to S&P Global, today’s surplus will not last forever.

The report projects that global nickel stocks will peak around 2028. After that, inventories begin to fall as demand improves and supply growth slows. By the early 2030s, the market balance flips.

By 2031, S&P Global expects the primary nickel balance to turn negative. EV battery demand accelerates as electrification expands. Stainless steel consumption recovers alongside global manufacturing. Meanwhile, Indonesian supply growth slows as easy expansions run out and regulatory risks increase.

Once inventories drop below comfortable weeks-of-consumption levels, prices respond quickly. S&P Global points to nickel prices rising toward $25,000 per tonne or higher, especially for Class 1 material.

Non-Indonesian Projects Hold the Key to Future Balance

As we understand now, oversupply is reshaping how the market thinks about security. During surplus periods, buyers focus on price. Origin matters less. Reliability takes a back seat. However, as balance tightens, priorities shift. A stable, politically secure supply becomes critical.

This is when non-Indonesian projects regain importance. Oversupply may delay their development, but it also ensures that fewer alternatives exist when demand rebounds. As a result, high-quality projects outside Indonesia gain strategic value.

AEMC’s Nikolai Project Stands Apart

This shifting market context brings Alaska Energy Metals Corp. (AEMC) into focus.

AEMC’s Eureka deposit, part of the Nikolai Nickel Project in Alaska, is now the largest known nickel resource in the United States. Importantly, the project is polymetallic. Alongside nickel, it hosts copper, cobalt, chromium, platinum, and palladium—materials critical to clean energy, infrastructure, and defense.

In March 2025, AEMC released an updated NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate, prepared by Stantec Consulting Services. The update significantly expanded the project’s scale.

The estimate includes:

• 1.19 billion tonnes of Indicated resources, up 46%
• 2.09 billion tonnes of Inferred resources, up 133%
• 61 billion pounds of contained nickel in the Indicated category
• 9.38 billion pounds of nickel in the Inferred category

On a nickel-equivalent basis, the resource exceeds 29 billion pounds, placing it among the world’s largest undeveloped nickel assets.

Long-Life Supply with Strong Economics

Beyond size, the project’s quality strengthens its case.

The Eureka deposit features a low strip ratio of about 1.6:1, which supports lower operating costs. A higher-grade core sits near the surface, reducing early capital requirements. Mineralization remains consistent and continuous, extending in multiple directions with room for expansion.

Early metallurgical work suggests the ore should respond well to conventional processing, avoiding complex or risky technologies. Together, these factors support a long-life, stable supply source—something the U.S. currently lacks.

Why AEMC Fits the U.S. Strategy

The United States faces a widening gap between critical mineral demand and domestic supply. Nickel ranks near the top of that list, driven by EVs, grid infrastructure, and defense needs.

AEMC aligns closely with this strategy. The company is advancing permitting under the FAST-41 framework, plans to deliver a Preliminary Economic Assessment in Q1 2026, and continues hydrometallurgical testing to support future U.S.-based refining.

In a market dominated by Indonesian supply, AEMC offers diversification, security, and scale.

Today’s nickel surplus keeps prices low and inventories high. However, it also hides growing structural risks.

As oversupply fades and demand accelerates, the market will need new, reliable sources of nickel. Projects like AEMC’s Nikolai are not competing with today’s surplus—they are preparing for tomorrow’s shortage.

And when balance finally tightens, supply security may matter just as much as price.

• MUST READ: AEMC’s Nikolai: America’s Answer to Indonesia’s Nickel Crunch
  

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The post Nickel Demand for EVs Could Flip the 2030 Market Balance appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Energy giant Shell reported around 1.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions in 2025. Most of these emissions come from the use of the fuels the company sells, known as Scope 3 emissions.

Scope 3 emissions occur when customers burn oil, gas, and other fuels produced by energy companies. For Shell, these emissions dominate its carbon footprint.

The company’s operational emissions are much smaller. Shell recently reported about 50 million tons of Scope 1 emissions from its operations. It also noted around 8 million tons of Scope 2 emissions from purchased electricity.

Together, these numbers show the scale of emissions linked to global fossil fuel use. In comparison, the United Kingdom’s total emissions were about 480 million tons in 2024, less than half of Shell’s overall carbon footprint. This comparison highlights how emissions linked to energy supply chains can exceed those of entire countries.

Why Scope 3 Emissions Dominate Oil and Gas

Most emissions linked to oil and gas companies come from the fuels consumers burn. This explains why Scope 3 emissions are the largest part of Shell’s carbon footprint.

• Shell’s reporting shows Scope 3 emissions of over 1 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent, far higher than emissions from its direct operations. As seen below, the oil major’s GHG emissions have been declining since 2018.

Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions come from Shell’s operations and purchased energy, based on the company’s sustainability reports. Scope 3 emissions represent the use of fuels sold by Shell. Scope 3 accounts for the vast majority, around 95% of the company’s carbon footprint.

About 78% of these emissions occur downstream, mainly when customers use gasoline, diesel, or natural gas. The rest come from upstream activities such as equipment manufacturing and fuel transport.

This pattern is common across the oil and gas industry. Energy companies produce fuels, but most emissions occur when the fuels are burned.

Because of this structure, reducing emissions in the energy sector requires changes across the whole system. These include cleaner fuels, new technologies, and changes in how energy is used.

Shell’s Net-Zero Targets and Climate Strategy

Shell says it aims to become a net-zero emissions energy company by 2050. To move toward this goal, the company has set several climate targets.

• One key target is to cut emissions from its operations (Scope 1 and 2) by 50% by 2030 compared with 2016 levels.

The oil giant has already made some progress on this goal. By 2024, the company had reduced operational emissions by about 30% compared with 2016.

Another metric Shell uses is Net Carbon Intensity (NCI). This measures emissions per unit of energy sold. In recent reporting, Shell’s NCI stood at 71 grams of CO₂ equivalent per megajoule, unchanged from the previous year.

The company plans to reduce this measure to net zero by 2050 as part of its transition strategy. However, intensity targets measure emissions relative to energy production. This means total emissions can remain stable if energy demand continues to grow.

Shell’s Offset Strategy: Retiring Millions with Certified Credits

In 2025, Shell retired 5.8 million carbon credits. Of these, 5.5 million were tied to its Net Carbon Intensity (NCI) efforts. This included 2.0 million linked to energy product sales. The company emphasizes careful sourcing and screening of credits.

Of the total retired, 59% were certified by Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), 22% by Gold Standard, 10% by the ACR program, and 9% via Climate Action Reserve.

Rising Energy Demand Keeps Fossil Fuels in Play

Global energy demand continues to rise. This affects emissions across the energy sector. According to the International Energy Agency, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grew in many regions due to rising industrial activity and energy demand.

• Emissions from natural gas increased by 2.5% in 2024, while coal emissions rose almost 1% in recent global energy data, per the IEA report.

Oil emissions also increased slightly as countries continued to rely on fossil fuels to meet economic growth and energy access needs. This demand helps explain why oil and gas companies still play a large role in global energy supply.

At the same time, the energy transition is accelerating. Governments and companies are investing in renewable power, electric vehicles, and cleaner fuels. These trends are reshaping the global energy system.

LNG and Carbon Capture in Shell’s Transition Plan

Shell continues to expand its liquefied natural gas business. The company expects global LNG demand to grow about 60% by 2040, driven by economic growth and industrial energy needs.

Natural gas produces fewer emissions than coal when burned. Because of this, some countries view LNG as a transitional fuel during the shift to cleaner energy systems.

Shell is also investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS). One major project is the Northern Lights carbon storage project in Norway, developed with industry partners. The facility aims to store at least 5 million tons of CO₂ per year once expanded.

• SEE MORE: World’s First Commercial CCS Plant Owned by Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies Injects CO2 in North Sea

Carbon capture technology can help reduce emissions from industries that are difficult to electrify, such as heavy manufacturing and shipping. However, CCS projects remain limited in number compared with the scale of global emissions.

The Enormous Scale of the Global Energy Transition

The world’s energy system is changing quickly. But the scale of fossil fuel use remains large.

Energy companies like Shell supply fuels used across transportation, power generation, and heavy industry. This explains why emissions linked to these companies are so high.

At the same time, new technologies are reshaping the energy landscape. Renewable power, electric vehicles, hydrogen fuels, and carbon capture are expanding rapidly.

Shell itself notes that new technologies could cut the carbon intensity of the global energy system by half by 2050 if current trends continue. Still, hitting global climate targets will require faster progress.

What Shell’s Emissions Reveal About the Energy System 

Shell’s reported 1.1 billion tons of CO₂ emissions in 2025 show the scale of the global energy challenge. The majority of these emissions come not from company operations, but from the fuels used by millions of consumers and industries worldwide.

Reducing emissions across this system will require major changes in energy production, infrastructure, and technology. Oil and gas companies remain central players in this transition. Their investments, technologies, and energy supply decisions will influence how quickly the global economy moves toward lower-carbon energy.

The next decades will determine whether the energy system can meet rising demand while also reducing emissions at the scale required to reach global climate goals.

• READ MORE: Shell’s Initiative to Cut Methane in Rice Farming in the Philippines and Create Carbon Credits

The post Big Oil’s Carbon Reality: Shell’s 1.1 Billion-Ton Footprint Shows the Scale of the Energy Transition appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Carbon markets continue to grow as countries and companies work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many firms now set net-zero targets. To reach those goals, they must cut emissions and offset the emissions they cannot eliminate. Carbon credit exchanges play an important role in this process by providing platforms where verified carbon credits are bought and sold.

Each carbon credit represents one metric ton of carbon dioxide removed or avoided through climate projects such as reforestation, renewable energy, or methane capture. Carbon exchanges help the credit markets work. These platforms support price discovery, market liquidity, and transparent trading.

This article explores the top carbon credit exchanges shaping the market in 2026: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Xpansiv, AirCarbon Exchange (ACX), and ESGCX. They span global compliance markets, voluntary carbon credit venues, and next-generation digital marketplaces.

Carbon Credits and Market Trends Shaping 2026

The carbon credit market has expanded quickly in recent years. Governments have introduced carbon pricing programs, while many corporations now use carbon credits as part of their climate strategies.

The global carbon market hit around $783 billion in 2024 and exceeded $1 trillion in 2025. This growth shows strong demand from corporate climate programs and government policies.

Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) also continue to grow. The sector reached over $2 billion in traded value in 2024. Forecasts suggest strong growth ahead. The VCM could exceed $10 billion by 2030.

Several trends are shaping this market:

• Corporate climate commitments. More companies now include carbon credits in their climate strategies. Studies suggest that over 60% of sustainability-focused companies plan to increase their use of carbon offsets.
• Nature-based climate projects. Forestry and land-use projects remain major sources of credits. Forestry projects account for about 41% of the carbon credit supply, while renewable energy projects represent roughly 32%.
• Demand for high-quality credits. Many buyers now seek projects with strong verification and measurable impact. Around 44% of buyers prefer high-quality certified credits with stronger transparency standards.
• Digital technology in carbon markets. New platforms use digital tools and data systems to track carbon reductions. About 41% of market participants are adopting digital monitoring and verification systems.

As the market grows, trading infrastructure also becomes more important. Carbon exchanges provide the platforms that allow buyers and sellers to transact efficiently.

How Carbon Exchanges Support Climate Markets

Carbon exchanges create structured marketplaces for environmental assets. They connect buyers and sellers and provide transparent trading systems. These exchanges typically support two main types of markets.

• Compliance carbon markets: Governments create these markets through emissions trading systems. Companies must hold carbon allowances equal to their emissions. The European Union Emissions Trading System is the largest example.
• Voluntary carbon markets: Companies buy carbon credits voluntarily to offset emissions. These credits usually come from climate projects such as forest protection or renewable energy development.

Exchanges support both markets by providing tools for trading and price discovery. Some exchanges focus on derivatives and futures contracts. Others focus on spot trading of voluntary credits.

Reliable trading platforms also help reduce risk. They improve transparency by publishing prices and trading data. Several exchanges now play a major role in these global markets, and we’re breaking down each one of them so you’ll know your best pick. 

• READ MORE: The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): The Global Benchmark for Carbon Derivatives

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) operates one of the largest environmental derivatives markets in the world. It focuses mainly on compliance, carbon markets, and emissions allowance trading.

ICE hosts futures and options contracts tied to several carbon pricing systems. These include European Union Allowances (EUAs), which serve as a global benchmark for carbon pricing. The exchange has recorded strong trading activity in recent years.

In 2025, ICE environmental markets saw a record of 20.9 million environmental futures and options contracts. This was a 4% rise from the previous record year.

The trading volume exceeded $1 trillion in notional value. This trend marks five years of trillion-dollar environmental trading on the platform. The exchange also reported $117 billion worth of physically delivered carbon allowances in 2025.

ICE supports several major environmental products:

• EU Carbon Allowance (EUA) futures
• UK Carbon Allowance futures
• California Carbon Allowance contracts
• Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) futures

North American environmental markets on ICE also reached record activity. In 2025, 6.2 million contracts were traded in these markets. This total included 4.2 million California Carbon Allowance contracts.

Because of its deep liquidity and strong participation, ICE remains a key platform for companies and financial institutions managing carbon price risk.

Xpansiv: Powering the Largest Spot Market for Carbon Credits

Xpansiv operates the CBL carbon exchange, a leading marketplace for voluntary carbon credits. The exchange focuses on spot trading of environmental commodities. These include carbon credits and renewable energy certificates.

Xpansiv has become a major infrastructure provider for voluntary carbon markets. Since 2020, the platform has facilitated transactions involving more than 330 million carbon credits and environmental certificates.

CBL provides a central order book system that helps improve price transparency. Buyers and sellers can trade standardized contracts that represent verified carbon credits.

The exchange also supports the Aviation Carbon Exchange (ACE), developed with the International Air Transport Association. ACE offers a marketplace for airlines to buy carbon credits that meet CORSIA requirements.

• Since its launch, the platform has supported the trading of over 20 million tonnes of carbon credits used by airlines and other participants.

Xpansiv also connects to major carbon credit registries. These include Verra, the American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, and Gold Standard.

These integrations allow credits to move between registries and trading platforms. This improves liquidity and market access for project developers and buyers. As voluntary markets expand, platforms like Xpansiv play an important role in connecting carbon projects with global buyers.

• SEE MORE on Xpansiv:
  • From Tokyo to New York: Xpansiv Strengthens Global Role in Climate Data and Carbon Market Innovation
  • Xpansiv and KRX Collaborate on Korean Carbon Credit Market Launch

AirCarbon Exchange (ACX): A Digital Marketplace for Global Carbon Trading

AirCarbon Exchange (ACX) is a digital carbon credit exchange designed to simplify trading of environmental assets. The platform operates fully online and connects market participants across regions.

Members, over 190 globally, include corporations, traders, financial institutions, and project developers. The exchange has transacted over 21 MtCO2e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent).

ACX focuses on providing efficient digital infrastructure for environmental markets. Its trading system supports carbon credits and other environmental products. The exchange serves members from more than 30 countries, reflecting the growing global nature of carbon markets.

ACX also emphasizes transparent pricing and streamlined trading systems. Digital exchanges reduce barriers for companies that want to participate in carbon markets.

The platform has gained recognition from industry groups and environmental finance organizations for its trading technology and market structure. It has been voted as the Best Carbon Exchange for four consecutive years.

Digital exchanges such as ACX illustrate how technology is changing environmental markets. As more companies join the carbon economy, digital platforms may help scale global trading.

ESGCX: Integrity‑Focused Carbon Market Platform

ESGCX is a platform focused on carbon credit quality, transparency, and verification. It integrates project evaluation, digital monitoring, and trading readiness in one system.

In 2025, ESGCX launched the Carbon Credit Integrity Pilot Program (CCIPP). The program brings together project developers, investors, and verification partners. Participants get early access to ESGCX’s tools for digital MRV, credit ratings, and market readiness.

The exchange supports only premium carbon credits with third-party verification. This ensures buyers access high-quality credits with measurable climate impact.

The platform also uses digital tools and blockchain-friendly systems. These help improve transparency and simplify trading. Institutional buyers gain priority access to high-impact projects.

Market demand for high-integrity credits is rising. Corporate buyers committed over $10 billion to durable carbon removal in 2024–2025. ESGCX positions itself to meet this growing demand.

In short, ESGCX is building a transparent, verified, and reliable carbon market. Its focus on quality and digital verification makes it a strong platform for developers, investors, and buyers. 

As VCMs mature, stronger integrity systems may become more important for buyers and regulators.

The Major Carbon Exchanges at a Glance

The exchanges discussed in this article operate in different parts of the carbon market. Here’s the summary of what they are and their market focus.

Each platform serves a different role within the global carbon economy.

Carbon Exchanges as the Backbone of Climate Markets

Carbon credit exchanges now serve as critical infrastructure for climate markets. They provide transparent pricing, enable trading, and connect climate projects with buyers. As carbon markets expand, exchanges will likely play an even larger role.

The carbon economy continues to evolve. Governments are expanding emissions trading systems, while companies increase investments in climate solutions.

At the same time, buyers are demanding stronger verification and higher-quality credits.

These trends are shaping the next phase of carbon markets. Exchanges such as ICE, Xpansiv, ACX, and ESGCX illustrate how trading platforms are adapting to support a rapidly growing global climate economy.

• MUST READ: Top Carbon Credit Companies to Watch in 2026

The post The Top Carbon Credit Exchanges Driving Climate Markets in 2026 and Beyond appeared first on Carbon Credits.