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Avinash Persaud is special advisor to the president of the Inter-American Development Bank on climate change and an architect of the 2022 Bridgetown Initiative. Emily Wilkinson is director of the Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (RESI) at ODI Global.

Many communities are vulnerable to climate shocks – from the urban poor in Brazil to smallholder farmers in Africa’s Sahel region. But few are more vulnerable than those living in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) around the world, from the Caribbean to the South Pacific.

Storms and rising sea levels present an existential risk. They can wipe out annual incomes several times over. We don’t yet know the full extent of the damage wrought on Jamaica by Hurricane Melissa – the strongest hurricane to hit the island since records began – but they are expected to run into tens of billions of dollars, and recovery will take at least a decade.

These nations are the “canaries in the coal mine”, signalling the dangers that lie ahead. In 2022, the world set out a plan to tackle the threat. Economists, nonprofits and nation states got behind the Bridgetown Initiative, spearheaded by Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley.

It has historically been difficult and expensive to finance the projects many nations need to cope with our changing climate. Yet much progress has been made on the Bridgetown Initiative’s five-step plan to reform the global financial system.

Momentum builds for strong adaptation outcome at COP30 

We have seen wider adoption of pause clauses in debt arrangements aimed at taking the pressure off countries when they face disasters. These clauses were used for the first time by Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl in 2024. In 2023, countries agreed to unlock $100 billion in Special Drawing Rights, an international reserve of assets held by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), scaling up states’ efforts to build resilience to climate change.

More recently, progress has been made to reduce the cost of capital and currency volatility, two other major brakes on resilience investments. Brazil, the COP30 host nation, has just launched the Eco Invest programme with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), which will mobilise significant new private and public finance to restore degraded rural areas, produce clean energy and create green jobs.

Closing the yawning climate finance gap

These measures have helped to close a yawning climate finance gap, but more action is needed.

Global average temperatures continue to rise, and we are close to biophysical tipping points with disastrous consequences. For many climate-vulnerable countries, investing in resilience is the best response. Climate adaptation technologies have improved substantially and countries can now build heat-ready homes and schools, while coastal defences can withstand Category 5 hurricanes like Melissa. Every dollar spent on adaptation saves up to $10 on avoided losses.

    The investments that have the greatest savings tend to be public goods, such as sea walls and flood defences, with few capturable revenues for private investors. The private sector has an important role to play in developing resilience technologies and implementing resilience investments, but 90% of the time, the public sector ends up paying.

    Many call on rich nations to provide more grant support for the climate vulnerable. But grants are shrinking, so we must consider other ways to unlock more investment.

    Climate adaptation can’t be just for the rich, COP30 president says

    First, the major players who influence debt sustainability – ratings agencies such as Fitch and Moody’s, private investors, the IMF, the World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) – could change their approach. Too often, the risks of climate shocks are priced into debt repayments without considering the opportunity to gain by making countries more resilient to them. This makes it harder for countries to do the right thing.

    Second, the most climate-vulnerable nations will need new borrowing instruments that are low-cost, long-term and flexible, for example ensuring that debt interest repayment timings can be adjusted if a disaster such as a devastating hurricane strikes.

    Because of their AAA credit ratings, MDBs like the World Bank are best positioned to help. Small island nations require an estimated $36 billion for adaptation efforts but received a fraction of that last year, and the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) have committed to raising their adaptation finance portfolio overall to 50% of climate finance, up from 30%.

    A man walks on a flooded road, after Hurricane Melissa made landfall, in Prospect, Manchester, Jamaica, October 29, 2025. REUTERS/Octavio Jones

    A man walks on a flooded road, after Hurricane Melissa made landfall, in Prospect, Manchester, Jamaica, October 29, 2025. REUTERS/Octavio Jones

    Third, climate-vulnerable countries are still paying a huge portion of their tax revenues in servicing debt. More can be done to break this vicious cycle, and one solution is something called a debt-for-resilience swap. That’s when a AAA-rated guarantor guarantees the debt of a climate-vulnerable country, allowing it to borrow at significantly lower interest rates. The proceeds are then used to buy back expensive debt – keeping the level of debt unchanged, but re-routing interest savings for resilience investments. Barbados, the Bahamas and Ecuador have done debt-for-climate swaps, but guarantors are in limited supply.

    Comment: Can COP30 mark a turning point for climate adaptation?

    To tackle this challenge, the IDB and other MDBs are developing the first-of-its-kind Multi-Guarantor Debt for Resilience Facility, where multiple guarantors work together to unlock more debt swaps on a larger scale.

    In these difficult times, when climate change is driving ever more dangerous and unpredictable impacts in vulnerable places, we must press forward with further reforms. Bridgetown has already channelled hundreds of billions into building stable countries with a secure future – something that benefits all of us. Now we all need to raise our adaptation ambitions.

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    Hurricane Melissa’s destruction shows need for climate resilience push

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    UN chief says fossil fuel industry must cut methane for warming “relief”

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    UN chief António Guterres called on Tuesday for stronger action to cut emissions of planet-heating methane, taking aim at the fossil fuel industry’s practices and profits, and pointing to coal, oil and gas as the root of today’s climate and energy crises.

    In a major speech at London Climate Action Week, with the British capital under a heatwave warning, the UN Secretary-General said countries had not done enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with what is needed to keep warming below the globally agreed goal of 1.5C. 

    “The task before us is to strictly limit the overshoot, shorten its duration, and bring temperatures down below 1.5 degrees Celsius as fast as possible,” Guterres said. One way of doing that, he added, is by cutting methane emissions first.

    He noted that methane – a potent greenhouse gas that traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide – is responsible for around one-third of global warming but breaks down in the atmosphere within a decade or two.

    “That means that aggressive cuts could produce visible temperature relief within a generation,” the UN chief emphasised, launching a global call to action on methane covering fossil fuel production, agriculture and organic waste disposal.

      Of the three main sources of methane, he singled out the fossil fuel industry, where he said “the most immediate gains can be made”.

      He cited the International Energy Agency (IEA) finding that around 70% of oil and gas methane emissions can be eliminated using existing technology, mostly at low or no net cost. This is because the gas leaking from coal mines and oil and gas production facilities can be captured and then used or sold.

      Despite this, in 2025 alone, Guterres said some 167 billion cubic metres of gas were flared – as much as Africa consumes in a year.

      “I am urging the fossil fuel industry to step up and do what is long overdue,” added the UN chief, whose term ends this year.

      Guterres said voluntary action “is no longer enough” and there were similar global precedents for getting rid of harmful substances, including leaded petrol and ozone-depleting chemicals. “Methane pollution must be next,” he emphasised.

      Methane emissions stuck at highs

      The latest Global Methane Tracker report from the IEA shows that methane emissions from fossil fuels remained at very high levels in 2025, with no sign of a decline globally despite progress in some countries. In 2025, energy generated 41% of global methane emissions, followed by agriculture (40%) and waste (17%).

      On Tuesday, a World Bank tracker showed that global gas flaring rose for the third year in a row in 2025, wasting an estimated $54 billion worth of gas by burning it off.

      Demetrios Papathanasiou, the World Bank Group’s global director for energy, said that at a time when many countries are struggling to expand their access to affordable and reliable energy, “the economic development costs of continued flaring are simply too high”. “The gas currently flared could be captured to power industries and businesses, create jobs and strengthen energy security,” he said in a statement.

      As well as easing climate change, the IEA says capturing waste methane could help improve gas market security after Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed close to 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply from the market. 

      The prime minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, last year called on leaders at the UN General Assembly to draw up a “legally binding global agreement” to reduce methane emissions, an idea that is also supported by France.

      Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible

      However, Guterres stopped short of supporting such a solution on Tuesday, throwing his weight instead behind a proposal for governments to set a new global standard for net near-zero methane emissions across the value chain in the oil and gas sector.

      This initiative, outlined in a report on the new call to action, would establish a common, internationally recognised methane intensity benchmark, for use by both producers and consumers. Compliance with the standard would then become a condition for financing, procurement and long‑term market access.

      Voluntary action ‘not enough’

      In recent years, countries and companies willing to act on the methane problem have teamed up on the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels, and the UAE-led Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, signed by over 50 oil and gas companies. But their success has been limited in real terms.

      Speaking at a separate event on Monday, Jonathan Banks, vice president of methane pollution prevention at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), said the global pledge had been successful in creating “high-level political buy-in”, raising more money to detect methane emissions and helping countries plug their sources.

      But it “is not there to be this all-encompassing binding treaty that drives emissions down”, he added.

      At last year’s COP30, 11 countries representing around 10% of global oil production and 18% of gas exports signed a pledge to “drastically reduce” methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector, including by eliminating routine gas flaring and venting.

      Comment: Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace

      The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) also runs a system that detects methane leaks around the world. It has issued more than 5,000 alerts across 33 countries, but received responses in only 12% of cases.

      Meghan Demeter, a programme manager at the UNEP service, said on Monday that countries face several barriers to responding to the alerts, including limited capacity to interpret the data and act on it, as well as funding shortages, particularly among national oil companies.

      A senior UN official told journalists that existing initiatives on methane had raised awareness of the issue but had failed to deliver the emissions cuts needed. “’It’s absolutely critical that governments step in and strongly regulate the oil and gas sector,” he added.

      Norway leads the way

      As an example of how this could work, the call to action report singled out Norway, which banned routine flaring in 1971, imposed a tax on emissions from petroleum production and transport in 1991, and increased its tax on flaring and methane emissions in 2017. It now has one of the lowest methane emissions intensities of upstream oil and gas production in the world. 

      The report said that if all countries matched Norway’s standards, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations could fall by roughly 90%.

      Recent COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan linked to “super-emitting” methane plumes

      It added that China, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar reduced or maintained their methane emissions from oil and gas production between 2023 and 2024, even as output increased, indicating a decline in the emissions intensity of their operations.

      On Monday, the Fossil Fuel Regulatory Programme (FFRP), a UNEP-backed initiative that works with governments to strengthen regulatory frameworks for cutting methane emissions from their energy sectors, added Egypt, Brazil, and Bosnia and Herzegovina to its existing partners, Ghana, Kazakhstan and Iraq.

      Windfall tax on fossil fuel profits

      Guterres also made a strong push for states to hit the very deep pockets of fossil fuel companies with windfall taxes, as countries like the UK, Italy or Spain have done in recent years.

      He said fossil energy giants had reaped ”extraordinary profits”, with the eight biggest making an extra $6.5 billion in the first quarter of this year alone, which included only one month of the Middle East crisis which has pushed up oil prices.

      “These are windfall gains born of pain – of instability, hardship and dependence. I urge governments to tax them,” said the UN chief. 

      He added that the proceeds should be used “where they belong: helping vulnerable families and communities, and accelerating the shift to clean, affordable energy”.

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      China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past

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      Aiqun Yu, Christine Shearer and Joe Hittinger work at Global Energy Monitor, a US-based organisation that seeks to provide the worldwide energy transition with transparent data and analysis.

      With global oil and gas prices soaring at the start of the Iran war, China quietly broke ground on three major coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemical projects worth roughly $10 billion in two regions with abundant coal resources.

      But as a Chinese saying goes, “three feet of ice does not form in a single day”. China’s push to use coal as a substitute for imported oil and gas has been gathering momentum since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, prompting a recalibration of energy security priorities in Beijing and beyond.

      The policy raises new concerns, threatening China’s climate goals and growing reputation as a global clean energy leader by creating renewed demand for coal.

      A new expansion wave

      Over the past three years, China has entered a new cycle of investment in so-called “modern coal chemicals”, differentiated from conventional coal chemicals. Four pathways – coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-ethylene glycol – account for the bulk of new modern coal-chemical capacity under development.

        According to Global Energy Monitor data, proposed and under-construction coal-to-gas capacity is approaching three times current operating capacity. Together, 34 projects under active consideration represent more than 1 trillion yuan ($150 billion) in planned investment and could add roughly 300 million tonnes of annual coal demand if completed, equivalent to South Africa’s entire coal mining capacity.

        Most projects are in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Ningxia, regions with plentiful coal resources and relatively low mining costs. Xinjiang has emerged as the epicentre of the new boom, accounting for more than half of all proposed modern coal chemical projects.

        Why the world abandoned coal chemicals

        Coal chemicals are often presented as an emerging industry, but the technologies themselves are more than a century old.

        Earlier “conventional” coal chemistry was a byproduct of coking, a process run primarily for iron and steel making. “Modern” coal chemistry instead uses gasification to convert coal into synthesis gas, a versatile building block for fuels, plastics, fertilisers and other chemicals that would traditionally be made from oil or gas.

        These modern processes were developed in the early 20th century and expanded during periods of wartime fuel shortages. For example, Germany relied heavily on synthetic fuels during the Second World War while South Africa developed similar technologies in the apartheid era to reduce vulnerability to international sanctions.

        A livestreamer promotes coal during a livestreaming session for Huaze Coal Industry on the Douyin app, in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

        A livestreamer promotes coal during a livestreaming session for Huaze Coal Industry on the Douyin app, in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

        Once cheap oil and gas became widely available, however, most countries moved away from coal chemicals, which required large amounts of energy, water and capital investment, and generally produced more pollution and carbon emissions than the conventional alternatives.

        Today, only a handful of commercial coal gasification facilities operate outside China.

        China has already tested this theory once

        The current expansion is not China’s first attempt to build a major coal chemical industry.

        A previous boom emerged during the 2010s, driven by many of the same arguments: high oil prices, concerns over energy security and expectations that technological improvements would unlock a new era of coal-based industrial growth.

        Brazil jostles for rare earths share as US-China rivalry heats up

        The outcome was far from successful. Dozens of projects were proposed, but many were delayed, suspended or scrapped before completion, and there were difficulties among those that did get off the ground.

        Three of China’s four operating coal-to-gas projects reportedly spent much of the past decade operating at a loss, and several large coal chemical facilities generated only marginal returns despite government support.

        Policy support is driving the revival

        Backers say technological improvements have made the industry more competitive than it was a decade ago.

        Yet coal chemical projects remain highly dependent on oil and gas prices. When international prices rise, coal-derived products can appear competitive. When prices fall, the economics often deteriorate rapidly.

        More than changes in technology, government policy has played a pivotal role in the sector’s revival.

        Following power shortages in 2021 and the energy market disruptions that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy security became a national priority. Coal production expanded, particularly in western China, boosted by government support.

        China’s solar exports reach “gigantic” record in March as energy crisis bites

        A key policy change in 2022 exempted coal used as industrial feedstock from certain energy consumption controls, easing regulatory pressure on coal chemical projects.

        The impact of such measures highlights the degree to which coal chemicals depend on expansive and favourable policy treatment to remain viable.

        At the same time, the current expansion is creating new demand for an industry confronting structural decline as China races to renewables in electricity generation.

        The cost to China’s climate leadership

        Converting coal into fuels and petrochemical products also releases substantially more carbon dioxide than conventional oil- and gas-based alternatives, which themselves are a major source of emissions.

        Proponents argue that coupling production with green hydrogen and carbon capture could resolve the emissions problem, but the arithmetic doesn’t support this.

        Sinopec’s flagship Dalu coal-to-olefins plant, paired with a 10,000 tonne-per-year green hydrogen demonstration, displaces less than 2% of the plant’s annual coal use. Replicating this across the proposed buildout would consume enormous quantities of clean energy just to partially decarbonise an inherently dirty process.

        China could instead leverage that same industrial capacity and policy support to lead the development of cleaner chemical pathways, such as green ammonia for fertiliser, bio-based and CO2-derived feedstocks for plastics, and e-fuels or biofuels where liquid fuels are still needed.

        Rather than locking in another generation of coal-dependent infrastructure, China should learn from the lessons of the past and seek a cleaner and more viable industrial future.

        The post China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past appeared first on Climate Home News.

        China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past

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        Project Cosmos

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        Welcome to the Project Cosmos homepage.

        The project was launched by Carbon Brief in June 2026 following an 18-month research and development effort.

        The aim: to build the world’s largest database of climate change research.

        Containing more than 1.8 million unique publications linked by 40 million citation relationships, the Cosmos database represents the most complete and expansive mapping of human knowledge on climate change ever assembled.

        The articles and visuals below will guide you through how the Cosmos database was built, as well as all the subsequent analysis, including the Cosmos 500 rankings of most cited authors, publications and institutions.

        The post Project Cosmos appeared first on Carbon Brief.

        https://www.carbonbrief.org/project-cosmos/

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