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Our new scientific assessment of how humans are affecting the climate is nothing short of alarming, yet it does contain some encouraging news.

The second “Indicators of Global Climate Change” report, published in Earth System Science Data, provides an annual update on a set of metrics originally assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

With the latest IPCC assessment report on climate science completed in 2021 and the next one not expected until at least 2027, there is a substantial gap to fill. 

This is crucial at a time when human activity is changing the climate system at a rate and scale not experienced since records began.

For 2023, which smashed the record for the warmest year, our best estimate of the warming caused by human activity is 1.31C above pre-industrial levels

This is the first year where this estimate has reached the 1.3C threshold. Our report also shows that human-caused warming has been increasing at a rate of 0.26C per decade.

This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being close to an all-time high and a reduction in the cooling impacts of aerosols as society tackles deadly air pollution

Yet, there is some positive news: greenhouse gas emissions have not yet risen beyond pre-pandemic levels and there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the past decade has slowed compared to the 2000s.

Headline results from an analysis of key climate indicators in 2023 compared to the last IPCC climate science report.
Headline results from an analysis of key climate indicators in 2023 compared to the last IPCC climate science report. Source: Forster et al. (2024) Figure 11

Tracking climate change

We track and document how datasets and methods evolve between IPCC report cycles. The aim is to increase transparency and consistency from one cycle to the next, as well as filling the gap between reports.

This takes an international team of more than 50 scientists, including former IPCC authors and curators of global datasets.

The work builds a chain of evidence from emissions to temperature change, bringing around 20 global datasets together, to make a consistent estimate of human-caused warming based on the best-available current data and science.

The data and their changes are displayed on a dedicated Climate Change Tracker platform, shown below.

Snapshot of Climate Change Tracker
Snapshot of Climate Change Tracker

Greenhouse gas emissions

The starting point for updating the indicators is data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The most recent decade we have data for (2013-22) shows that average global GHG emissions were equivalent to 53bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) per year.

Total GHG emissions remain ever so slightly below the pre-pandemic high set in 2019, as the chart below illustrates. 

Annual global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions by source, in CO2 equivalent.
Annual global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions by source, in CO2 equivalent. Note, CO2 emissions are split between fossil fuel and industrial (FFI) and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Source: Forster et al. (2024) Figure 2a

With emissions rebounding in the wake of the Covid-induced lockdowns around the world, it is too early to say whether GHG levels have already peaked. For example, both CO2 emissions from coal and gas and emissions of non-CO2 gases are rising. Emissions from oil are also increasing again, but remain below pre-pandemic levels.

These growing emissions have been offset by a small decline in land-use emissions.

With the high levels of ongoing emissions, GHGs have continued to build up in the atmosphere. These in turn affect the heat gained by the Earth system, which is increasing its effective radiative forcing (ERF).  

ERF resulting from human activity rose to 2.79 watts per metre squared (W/m2) in 2023, compared to 2.72 W/m2 in 2019. However, last year’s ERF is lower than 2022’s (2.91 W/m2), mainly because of the increase in aerosols from wildfires in 2023, which had a cooling effect. In 2023, the increased aerosols from wildfires more than compensated for the ongoing fall in sulphur emissions from shipping and other sources. (See sections below for more detail.)

Warming impact

High GHG emission levels are also affecting the Earth’s energy balance, with observations showing an increase in the rate of heating on land and in oceans. Satellites and ocean buoys are tracking unprecedented flows of heat into the Earth’s oceans, ice caps, soils and atmosphere.

This rate of heat flow has doubled from the levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s to 0.96W/m2 measured over 2011 to 2023. This means nearly 1W/m2 of additional heat is flowing into every square metre of the Earth surface, 24 hours a day, 365 days per year.

Human-caused global warming has also increased by 0.1C in the four-year gap in tracking since the last IPCC report. 

Summary of percentage changes in global climate change indicators between 2019 and 2023.
Summary of percentage changes in global climate change indicators between 2019 and 2023. Credit: Indicators of Global Climate Change, IGCC (2024)

Remaining carbon budget

Our publication also reassesses the remaining carbon budget – the amount of CO2 that can be emitted while still keeping global warming below a certain level.

In 2020, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood of staying below 1.5C was around 500GtCO2, with an uncertainty range of 300-900GtCO2. At current emissions rates, that would be exhausted within around 12 years.

Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued. At the start of this year, the same budget stood at 200GtCO2, with a range of 100-450GtCO2. This would be blown within less than five years at current rates.

The remaining carbon budget is also impacted by future non-CO2 emissions such as methane, as well as the cooling effects of aerosols such as sulphates. With non-CO2 emissions expected to contribute to warming going forward, the carbon budget also accounts for their predicted warming effect.

In this future scenario, we also assume methane and nitrous oxide emissions decline; if they do not, the carbon budget will be even smaller.

Record warmth in 2023

Last year saw a large increase in global temperatures, approaching 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in some datasets and reaching 1.43C in the average of four datasets used in the IPCC report.

Seeing 1.5C total warming during one year – or even more than one – does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, nor does reaching or exceeding 1.5C warming in a particular month or location.

The Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal reflects global, human-caused, long-term temperature change that excludes short-term natural variability in the climate system.  However, higher and rising annual temperatures clearly mean that we are heading in the wrong direction. 

Our indicators show that, for the 2014-23 decade, observed global warming was 1.19C, of which 1.19C – that is, 100% – was caused by human emissions. 

This is shown in the chart below, which compares the estimated human contribution to warming in individual years (grey) with assessments for 2023 (red), the trend in 2023 (blue) and the 2014-23 decadal average (green).

Assessments of human-caused warming across different time periods.
Assessments of human-caused warming across different time periods. Single-year values shown by grey dots (with whiskers indicating uncertainty range). Methods from the IPCC special report on 1.5C for assessing 2023 as a single year and a trend are shown by red and blue dots, respectively. And the 2014-23 decadal average is shown as green dots. Source: Forster et al. (2024) Figure 6

For the individual year of 2023, humans were responsible for 1.31C of the 1.43C that was recorded globally. This means that there was a substantial contribution from other causes to the record temperatures of 2023.

Contributing factors

The reasons for the record warm 2023 are still being investigated – for example, they could include shipping emission reductions (see below) as well as natural factors, such as the climate phenomenon El Niño.

Sometimes these factors are not easily distinguished as human or natural. For example, growing forest fires and their impact on emissions and the climate system.

Last year, Canada experienced its most severe fire season of the modern era, while there were also catastrophic fires in Hawaii, the Mediterranean, central Amazonia and central Chile. 

Establishing how much of this biomass burning, the resulting emissions of aerosols and their effect on the climate is from natural wildfires is not easy.

For example, if the wildfires were caused by higher temperatures, themselves caused by human activity, this would be a climate feedback rather than from direct human activity.

This is an area where development of a consistent approach across datasets is needed.  The same goes for methane, where emissions are primarily from fossil fuel production, agriculture and waste. Yet, emissions are also increasing from tropical wetlands under a warming climate.  

There has been a lot of interest in how sulphur regulations from shipping led to a rapid fall in sulphur dioxide emissions in 2020 and possibly contributed to high global temperatures in 2023

Our paper makes a preliminary investigation of its climate impact and we find that the global radiative forcing effect of the declining emissions would likely only have had a minor role in the high 2023 global temperatures.

We estimate that, globally, the cooling effect of the aerosols from the fires in Canada likely dominated any warming effect from shipping emission regulation changes.

Next steps

As 2024 unfolds, we hope that the indicators can shed further light on how human activity is shaping our climate at rates and levels not previously seen.

The aim is that they help lay the groundwork for the level of ambition needed for the latest national pledges under the Paris Agreement – the 2035 nationally determined contribution (NDC) commitments – where we expect countries to put more ambitious targets forward to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 2025.

Perhaps our next update, which will be delivered to the Bonn negotiations in 2025, will begin to track a change in direction for the climate system that reflects a realisation of stronger and ambitious climate action for the longer-term.

The post Guest post: Tracking the unprecedented impact of humans on the climate appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Guest post: Tracking the unprecedented impact of humans on the climate

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Climate Change

Coles, Woolworths failing on deforestation commitments 

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SYDNEY, Wednesday 26 August 2026 — New 2026 Sustainability Reports released by supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths this week demonstrate the retailers are failing on their commitments to end deforestation in their supply chains.

Adele Chasson, Nature Policy Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said:

“These so-called sustainability reports are revealing. Despite their public commitments in 2024 and 2025, neither Coles nor Woolworths have taken deforestation-linked beef off their shelves. Meanwhile, bulldozers continue to tear up forests and bushland, pushing wildlife closer to extinction and causing mass toxic runoff to flow into the Great Barrier Reef. Millions of native animals like koalas are losing their homes to beef pastures each year, while the big supermarkets put off action.

“Australians would be shocked to know that beef on the shelves of our biggest supermarkets could be pushing threatened species to the brink of extinction. Collectively Coles and Woolworths have made more than $2 billion in profits in the last year, profiting from the destruction of wildlife and precious Australian nature. Coles and Woolworths owe it to shoppers to deliver on their promises and end deforestation in their supply chains now.

“As big beef buyers, Coles and Woolworths have an essential role to play in keeping Australia’s unique forests standing. They can help stop the Great Barrier Reef from being poisoned by runoff and protect iconic forest wildlife by taking deforestation off their shelves. It’s time these big companies put their money where their mouths are and follow through on their promise of sourcing and supplying deforestation-free beef.”

Coles, Woolworths failing on deforestation commitments 

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New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

        The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry  appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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