For several years, the UK car industry has been claiming that demand is not high enough to meet the government’s targets for sales of “zero emissions vehicles” (ZEVs).
To date, however, the car industry has actually beaten the targets under the government’s “ZEV mandate”.
This pattern of claiming demand is not high enough is being repeated in a regular cycle, following the publication of monthly statistics on new UK car sales by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
Each month, this messaging is amplified by large sections of the media, which have published dozens of articles stating – incorrectly – that car companies are missing their ZEV targets.
Meanwhile, the car industry is lobbying for an “urgent review” of the targets, on the basis that “natural demand is still well below the level demanded by the [ZEV] mandate”.
UK car market has ‘over-complied’ with its targets
In 2021, the UK’s then Conservative government developed the idea of a “ZEV mandate” as a way to drive sales of electric vehicles (EVs).
The idea, inspired by a similar scheme in California, is to set a rising target for the share of new car and van sales that must be “zero-emissions vehicles” (ZEVs) each year.
For cars, these targets started at 22% of sales 2024, increasing gradually each year to 80% by 2030.
Towards the end of the first year of the scheme, in November 2024, the SMMT warned that the industry was “likely to fall short”, with EVs making up “just…18.7%” of sales. It said:
“The industry looks likely to fall short of the 22% EV market share demanded, potentially creating a £1.8bn bill for compliance.”
(If manufacturers fall short of their target, they can still avoid having to pay a “bill for compliance” by trading “credits” with other firms, or “borrowing” allowances from future years.)
But, contrary to the industry messaging on the headline 22% goal, the car market actually “over-complied” in 2024, according to official figures published in early 2026.
As such, all carmakers in the UK avoided fines for failing to meet their ZEV-mandate targets.
This was despite only 19.8% of new sales being EVs in 2024 – a final tally that was notably more than one percentage point higher than the industry estimate from November of that year.
The industry was able to “over-comply” with the ZEV mandate because the regime has a series of “flexibilities”, which have been created and added to after lobbying by carmakers.
These “flexibilities” allow individual firms to reduce their targets for ZEV sales by selling combustion-engine cars with lower emissions, such as hybrids or plug-in EVs.
When these “flexibilities” are considered, the car market met the equivalent of a 24.5% target, according to the government, with the surplus of 2.5% being “banked” for use in future years. This is shown in the figure below.
In May 2026, the SMMT again told Carbon Brief that EV sales in 2024 had been below the headline target.
When asked by Carbon Brief to confirm that – per the official figures – the UK car market had, nevertheless, “over-complied” with the ZEV mandate in 2024, it did not respond.
Car industry continues to lobby for weaker rules
In a January 2026 release on car sales for the previous year, the SMMT said the “gap between demand [for EVs] and ambition [in the ZEV mandate] is increasing rather than diminishing”.
At the time, Carbon Brief asked the SMMT if it recognised independent estimates from thinktanks and NGOs, showing that – on the contrary – the car industry had also met its ZEV-mandate targets for 2025.
In response, the SMMT sent Carbon Brief a quote from SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes saying that “no one will know” if the industry complied with the 2025 target until official figures come out in 2027.
While this is technically true, the official figures for 2024 showed that the thinktanks and NGOs behind the independent estimates for 2025 had been accurate with their previous forecasts of compliance.
The car industry continues to repeat similar messaging.
The SMMT stated in May 2026 that there is a “persistent gap of around six percentage points against the mandate target” of 33% in 2026 and 38% in 2027. Chief executive Mike Hawes said in the statement that “natural demand is still well below the level demanded by the mandate”.
The gap that the SMMT is referring to is between the headline ZEV targets and the expected level of EV sales, which the body says will reach 27% of all new cars this year and 33% in 2027.
The car industry continues to use these figures to call for a review of the ZEV mandate.
In its latest news release, it says the UK “needs an urgent review” and quotes Hawes saying this should be used to “align policy with market realities”.
These comments are reflected in media coverage, with the Independent, for example, running a misleading headline that says the car market is “still missing government EV targets”. The article adds:
“[T]he industry is still warning that EV demand is not growing quickly enough to meet government targets.”
What neither the SMMT press release nor much of the media coverage mentions is the existing “flexibilities” under the ZEV mandate, which were already expanded last year.
This means the headline 33% goal for 2026 can be met, even if EVs only make up around 25% of sales, according to an estimate of the “real” target published by thinktank New Automotive.
Again, the SMMT expects EVs to make up around 27% of sales this year, which would be comfortably ahead of the “real” target once flexibilities are taken into account.
The government has already pledged to review the ZEV mandate, with the results due to be published in “early 2027”.
In April, car sales platform Autotrader announced that new EVs are now cheaper to buy than petrol cars on average, “for the first time”. EVs were already significantly cheaper to own.
The post Factcheck: What the UK car industry is not saying about EV targets appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Factcheck: What the UK car industry is not saying about EV targets
Climate Change
‘Step up and lead’: All eyes on Australia as it takes the reins of UN COP31 climate negotiations
ANTALYA, Türkiye, Saturday 7 November 2026 — As leaders and delegates gather for the UN COP31 climate summit, Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling on the Australian government in its role as President of Negotiations to ensure the just transition away from fossil fuels is central to negotiations, rigorously defend the 1.5°C temperature goal, and significantly scale up climate finance commitments.
This year’s climate talks take place amidst a deepening global energy shock, and grim reports that the world will barrel past the 1.5°C temperature goal. They also follow a deadly summer of extreme weather disasters that swept the northern hemisphere, with fears that a severe El Niño will see similar dangerous impacts in Australia.
But recent election wins by progressive candidates in the United States and Brazil are set to breathe energy and optimism into the negotiations as people around the world, bearing the brunt of soaring cost of living and climate disasters, shun regressive and divisive politics.
Speaking from Antalya, Dr Simon Bradshaw, COP31 Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “The world is in a moment of flux. We know it is in moments of huge upheaval that era-defining progress can happen — but only when countries step up and lead.
“As Australia takes control of COP31 Negotiations, we have an opportunity and responsibility to shepherd global climate cooperation through this moment of interlocking crises. That means backing Pacific leadership and priorities, and leading by example at home to end fossil fuels and deliver new, multi-year climate finance commitments.
“As a major coal and gas exporter, Australia plays an outsized role in fuelling the climate crisis, and has approved 38 new, extended and expanded fossil fuel projects since first elected in 2022. More than half the world’s coal export project pipeline is in Australia, and the Albanese Government is poised to make decisions on massive new gas projects. Australia must reckon with this reality.
“Domestically, we have made significant strides on ramping up renewables and the global ‘35 by 35’ electrification goal is welcome and necessary. But electrification must end fossil fuel dependence, not be an end in itself — its ultimate success depends on ensuring electricity comes from renewable sources that displace fossil fuels and align with a 1.5°C pathway.
“In Türkiye, the Australian government can rise to the occasion and show what true climate leadership looks like, but we can not move the world towards a clean energy future while expanding the industry we need to leave behind.”
Speaking from Antalya, Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “As leaders meet in Türkiye amidst warnings that we will pass the 1.5°C threshold, the stakes have never been higher. Every heatwave, every flood, every storm is being unleashed on communities with the deadly force of accumulated emissions and gives a warning of what is to come.
“In Antalya, the COP31 Presidency must respond to the accelerating climate crisis and defend the 1.5°C goal based on the law and the science. 1.5°C is a non-negotiable survival line for Pacific communities and climate-vulnerable nations facing rising seas, extreme weather disasters, food insecurity and soaring economic costs. It is a fundamental component of the Paris Agreement and enshrined as a binding legal benchmark by the world’s highest court, the International Court of Justice.
“Australia must arrive at COP31 with more than meaningless speeches. The Pacific and the world need concrete dates, credible plans to deliver roadmaps away from fossil fuels built on the best available science, and a commitment to put people, energy security and the planet ahead of fossil fuel interests.
“We need real action to advance multilateral climate cooperation, ensure the just transition away from fossil fuels is high on the agenda, and back longstanding Pacific priorities — including keeping 1.5°C alive and significantly scaling-up climate finance.”
ENDS
Images and footage from Greenpeace’s COP31 ‘Keep 1.5°C alive’ photo opp in Antalya can be found here
Greenpeace has a diverse range of experts available for interviews and commentary from Antalya. Headshots can be found in Greenpeace Media Library here
Media contact: Kate O’Callaghan in Antalya (GMT+3) on +61 406 231 892 (Whatsapp/Signal)
‘Step up and lead’: All eyes on Australia as it takes the reins of UN COP31 climate negotiations
As an extreme El Niño breaks marine temperature records, COP31 is set to boost the profile of the ocean’s role in solving climate change, but finance and clear conservation measures will be needed for it to move the needle, experts said.
The Turkish presidency has announced plans for an Antalya Ocean Declaration that recognises the centrality of the global ocean – the world’s largest carbon sink – in regulating the climate and minimising the now unavoidable overshoot of global temperatures above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels.
Meanwhile, as part of the formal UN negotiations, Australia has announced plans to land a cover decision in Antalya, which, according to veteran former US negotiator Sue Biniaz, would be the only section of the formal negotiations where the role of oceans could be included.
She added that an outcome at COP31 seems likely, given the initiative from both presidencies and a push from over 100 countries – including Brazil, the EU and the African Group of countries – calling for the UN negotiations to deliver a plan for implementing ocean measures.
Governments will arrive in Antalya with a “super El Niño” adding stress to marine ecosystems and expected to continue to intensify until December 2026, with parts of the Pacific averaging almost 30C (86F) – over 3C more than normal – in October, according to monthly EU sea temperature data.
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COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Electrification, the fossil fuel transition, adaptation to rising impacts, climate science and trade are key themes as governments gather for COP31 in Türkiye -
European nations signal support for fossil fuel roadmap, says COP30 president
André Corrêa do Lago told Climate Home News that it’s up to other nations to decide how the fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps are used -
Nepal seeks stronger recognition of mountain issues in UN climate process
Flood-hit Nepal wants COP31 to adopt a new agenda item formalising work on mountains and climate change and boosting the response to rising risks
Needs for ocean conservation and funding
While elevating the ocean agenda is “critical”, it must lead to funding for ocean conservation and a clear plan for reaching the global target – set at UN biodiversity talks in 2022 – of protecting 30% of the global ocean by 2030, said Pradeep Singh, senior ocean governance expert at Oceano Azul Foundation.
The ocean is precisely where governments are farthest off track from meeting this target – informally known as the 30×30 goal. Even if countries meet all their nature conservation plans, only about 12% of the global ocean would be protected, the UN says.
“Acknowledgment of marine protected areas and the 30×30 target as climate infrastructures will certainly boost efforts and funding for science and management,” Singh told Climate Home News.
Shamini Selvaratnam, director of international climate and clean energy at Ocean Conservancy, said an ocean commitment that makes a difference in coastal communities “takes funding, local capacity and support that countries can actually access”.
An analysis by climate think tank Zero Carbon Analytics shows that investment in the blue economy – through activities like sustainable fisheries or cleaner shipping – is only at about 2% of the needs, which are estimated at $550 billion per year.
Following-through on commitments
Selvaratnam added that countries must also establish mechanisms to follow through on these measures, which currently only exists in the form of a non-binding dialogue that is not expected to produce any negotiated agreements.
She said that countries at COP31 must find ways for their ocean commitments to inform the next global stocktake, the UN’s five-yearly review of progress on climate action. Some countries – including African countries, Latin American nations, small island states and the European Union – have backed a process that culminates in the next global stocktake.
At climate negotiations, countries are not mandated to include ocean conservation measures in their climate plans. But a group of countries led by France and Brazil is pushing them to do so voluntarily through an initiative called Blue NDC Challenge. Seventeen countries have joined the initiative so far.
In its list of COP31 priorities, the EU has called for the “critical role” of oceans to be recognised, but falls short of calling for any specific actions to feature marine action more prominently in climate plans.
As part of their demands, ocean campaign groups have called for the establishment of an “Antalya Ocean Compact”, a platform where countries can coordinate efforts across different environmental treaties, including the UN climate, biodiversity and high seas negotiations.
Ultimately, Selvaratnam said a strong deal “must accelerate emissions cuts, clean energy, and a transition away from fossil fuels, including offshore oil and gas”.
Ilana Seid, chair of the AOSIS group of small island states and permanent representative of Palau to the UN, said during a press briefing last week that “meaningful progress” on emissions reduction is “the best way” to alleviate stress on the ocean.
The post ‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat appeared first on Climate Home News.
‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat
In the wake of its recent glacial flooding disaster, Nepal and the kingdom of Bhutan have proposed a new agenda item on mountains and climate change for the COP31 summit which opens on Monday in the Turkish city of Antalya.
In a submission addressed to the COP31 presidency and the head of the UN climate secretariat (UNFCCC), Nepal said the agenda item, entitled “1.5°C Warming in Mountains”, is an effort to strengthen the response of the international community to the climate risks facing the world’s mountain regions.
The item proposes that mountain issues should become a regular part of the formal UN climate change process, with a focus on scientific assessment of the risks associated with warming overshooting 1.5C, an annual high-level dialogue, a dedicated work programme and improved access to climate finance.
Maheshwar Dhakal, chief of the climate change management division of Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Environment, told Climate Home News that Himalayan countries face similar problems such as collapsing glaciers and flooding from glacial lakes.
“We are trying to bring all Himalayan countries together under this agenda item,” he said.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
At this year’s UN General Assembly, Nepal’s Prime Minister Balendra Shah called for strong global action to ensure climate justice and proposed creating a Himalayan Climate Resilience Mechanism led by India, China and Nepal. It would share satellite data, monitor glacial slopes and lakes, strengthen early warning systems and coordinate cross-border disaster response.
Nepal has experienced significant infrastructure losses and human casualties from flooding every year since 2020. In late August, the collapse of a glacial slope on the border with Tibet caused a torrent of water and debris to course down the Bhote Koshi River, leaving more than 6,000 people dead or missing.
According to a government needs assessment, the disaster caused an estimated $2.7 billion in physical damage and economic losses, while around $4.8 billion will be required for recovery and reconstruction.
More research needed on threats
Although high mountain regions are known to be fragile ecosystems, especially as global warming accelerates glacier melt, the extent of their vulnerability is still not fully understood. When the devastating Bhote Koshi floods hit, it opened the eyes of the world to the risks.
Dhakal said the Bhote Koshi floods “have proved the impacts of climate change in the Himalayan region”, which were linked to rising temperatures by scientists with the World Weather Attribution group. “Therefore, Nepal wants scientific studies, research and political discussions on mountain climate risks to receive greater attention at international climate conferences,” he added.
Nepal has been making efforts on this front since 2009, when it held a cabinet meeting at Kalapatthar near Mount Everest. Since COP28 in Dubai, Nepal has organised high-level events and dialogues on mountain issues at COPs and is co-hosting one at COP31 with Bhutan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Editor’s Desk: Nepal’s disaster has laid bare the world’s adaptation accountability gap
Dhakal said the dialogues held so far have raised awareness, but mountain concerns must become part of the formal UN climate process to unlock climate finance and technical support that can bolster countries’ capacity to tackle climate threats.
If specific indicators and priorities are developed for mountain regions, vulnerable developing countries like Nepal would have better access to finance to help them adapt to the climate warming they have done very little to cause, he added.
More detailed data would enable them to prepare stronger project proposals for international climate funds, including the Green Climate Fund (GCF). In 2025, the GCF backed a project to protect livelihoods from climate-induced flooding in Nepal but it took seven years to get approval.
Sindhu Dhungana, an alternate board member at the GCF, said the problem is becoming more widespread and urgent for the Hindu Kush Himalaya region.
“The economies, cultures and almost everything in Himalayan countries depend on mountains,” he explained. “For us, climate change is mountain change… [it has] affected everything, including the economy and biodiversity.”
Destroyed development projects
Nepal wants the UN climate process to address mountain risks both before and after disasters. Countries need better research, technology, early warning systems and other adaptation measures to protect people and infrastructure. But even when countries take precautions, loss and damage is likely to occur and will require international support to address it.
Nepal has been provisionally allocated $21.6 million from the United Nations’ new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) to help with the aftermath of the Bhote Koshi disaster, but this is just a fraction of needs and the money will come only months after it made an initial request.
Dhakal pointed to the damage caused by floods to infrastructure built with loans, such as the Melamchi Drinking Water Project, which received $312 million from the Asian Development Bank but was destroyed by a major flood in 2021, shortly after it began operating. The recent Bhote Koshi disaster wiped out a dozen hydropower facilities, as well as solar energy systems.
Nepal flood destruction shows “limits to adaptation”, scientists say
Nepal wants international discussions on what should happen when climate-related disasters destroy development projects built using credit, and how the loans should be treated afterwards.
“Climatic disasters wash out… projects, but the burden of loan is still paid by Nepal,” Dhakal said.
For now, it remains unclear whether the opening session of COP31 will consider or adopt the proposed agenda item on mountains and climate change, with consultations on how to respond still underway among governments and th