Recent drying over the Amazon could be the “first warning signal” that the rainforest is approaching a tipping point, new research says.
The Amazon is the largest rainforest in the world and receives 2-3 metres of rain every year. However, intensifying droughts and human-driven deforestation mean parts of the forest are beginning to dry out.
The study, published in Science Advances, finds that deforestation is delaying the start of the South American monsoon, leading to reduced rainfall over the Amazon.
The authors warn that continued deforestation could push the region past a tipping point in which a further, rapid reduction in rainfall would kill vast swathes of trees.
Over the past 40 years, the Amazon’s dry season has already become longer, the paper finds. This might be the early warning signal that the combined rainforest and South American monsoon systems are approaching a critical threshold, the authors say.
The authors also stress the importance of ongoing experimental work to quantify the impacts of increasing temperature and CO2 on the Amazon rainforest, so that scientists can produce more accurate models of the links between deforestation and rainfall.
Amazon water cycle
The Amazon is the largest rainforest in the world.
The region contains around 400bn trees and is home to at least 10% of the world’s known species. It is also a key carbon store, holding more than 120bn tonnes of carbon in its vegetation and soil.
Tropical rainforests are warm and humid all year round. The Amazon basin receives around 2-3 metres of rainfall every year on average. It “recycles” much of this rainfall back into the atmosphere through evapotranspiration – the movement of water from the land to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and transpiration.
Much of this rainfall comes from the South American monsoon, which is driven in part by the temperature difference between the warm Amazon rainforest and cooler Atlantic ocean.
However, as droughts become more intense and frequent, the humid Amazon climate is beginning to dry, killing trees or making them less resilient to future changes. The ongoing drying trend is exacerbated by deforestation and wildfires.
Around 20% of the Amazon has already been deforested and a further 6% is “highly degraded”.
Dr David Lapola is a research scientist at the State University of Campinas in Brazil and a Carbon Brief contributing editor. Lapola, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the Southern and south-eastern Amazon are “currently experiencing a crisis in terms of changing climate and land use”.
Scientists have warned for decades that human-caused climate change could push key components of the Earth system – such as ice sheets, rainforests and monsoons – past critical thresholds and into new states.
Identifying these “tipping points” is an active area of research.
Previous studies suggest that the Amazon could be pushed beyond its tipping point if forest loss exceeds 40%. At this level of deforestation, evapotranspiration in the Amazon would reduce significantly, leading more trees to die from lack of water.
This self-perpetuating cycle could see large areas of tropical forest turn into dry grasslands in just decades, in a process called “dieback”.
Deforestation
To investigate the link between Amazon deforestation and rainfall, the study authors produce a model of moisture transport across South America that simulates how air moves through the Amazon. The model includes key feedbacks between vegetation, soil moisture and the atmosphere.
The authors find that deforestation reduces the amount of water released into the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. The drop in atmospheric moisture drives a reduction in rainfall.
To form raindrops, water vapour in the atmosphere condenses into liquid water, releasing energy in the form of heat. The reduction in rainfall means that less energy is released in this way, limiting warming in the atmosphere above the region.
As a result, the temperature difference between the warm Amazon rainforest and cooler Atlantic ocean becomes less pronounced. This can cause delays in the onset of the Amazon’s wet season and a lengthening of the dry season, resulting in drier soils and higher tree mortality.
Overall, this feedback means that deforestation in the Amazon weakens the South American monsoon, further reducing rainfall over the Amazon.
Prof Dominick Spracklen is a professor of biosphere-atmosphere interactions at the University of Leeds and co-wrote a “focus” article on the new study.
He tells Carbon Brief that including this complex feedback between the forest and atmosphere makes the rainforest-monsoon system “more sensitive to deforestation, compared to many previous studies that did not include this feedback”.
The graphic below shows the relationship between deforestation and rainfall. The dashed line shows the model used in the study with all feedbacks included, while the solid line shows a model which does not include the atmosphere-vegetation feedbacks.

The study authors find that if deforestation crosses a “critical threshold”, rainfall could drop by 30-50% over just a few years, pushing the system past a tipping point and damaging or killing large areas of the forest.
The model shows that Amazon rainfall is more sensitive to deforestation when key feedbacks between the atmosphere and vegetation are taken into account. This indicates that the tipping point could be crossed sooner than previously thought, the authors warn.
Dr Nils Bochow – a researcher at the Arctic University of Norway and co-author of the study – tells Carbon Brief that “changes in the South American monsoon have a strong influence on the rainforest and vice-versa”. He adds:
“If we do not include these interactions and feedbacks, then we might strongly underestimate the response of the rainforest. This might give a false sense of security or undermine the urgency to act.”
Early warning signs
If an Amazon tipping point is crossed, large sections of lush rainforest could transform into a dry savannah. This process of “savanisation” would take decades to take full effect, but once underway the process is difficult to reverse. The knock-on impacts for the rest of the planet could be profound.
“Tipping points are notoriously hard to understand or predict,” Spracklen tells Carbon Brief.
However, he says there are often early warning signs when a tipping point is approaching. He likens these to the wobble of a spinning top before it falls over.
After using the models to determine what this “wobble” would look like in the Amazon, the authors analyse decades of ERA5 reanalysis data to search for it.
The map below shows the change in soil moisture between 1979 and 2019. Red indicates a drying trend over the four-decade period, while blue indicates wetting.

The authors find that over 1979-2019, soil in the Amazon has become drier. They also find that the dry season now lasts between five and 15 days longer than it used to – meaning that the region is receiving less rainfall, on average, than it was four decades ago.
This indicates that the monsoon-rainforest system has been losing stability in the last decades, the authors say. This might be the first warning signal that a tipping point is approaching, they add.
“The results of this study underline the need to double down on efforts to stop deforestation and help the Amazon region develop in a way that does not lead to additional deforestation,” Spracklen tells Carbon Brief.
Forest loss in the Amazon is beginning to slow. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by at least 60% in July 2023 compared to the same month last year, after a new administration led by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power in Brazil.
Leaders of the eight Amazon basin countries met in August 2023 to agree on the need to sustainably develop while preventing further deforestation in the region, and formally recognised that the Amazon is approaching a tipping point.
Model uncertainty
This study is “one of the first” to simulate the feedbacks between the monsoon and Amazon, according to the study authors.
Bochow tells Carbon Brief that including these “non-linear” components is key, because when small changes “reinforce each other” they can lead to significant impacts.
However, the model is unable to account for everything. Most notably, it does not include the impact of rising CO2 levels or temperatures on the forest. This omission is a notable “gap” in the study, according to Lapola.
He tells Carbon Brief that elevated CO2 levels can have a significant impact on the forest through changing evapotranspiration levels, reducing rainfall and inducing plants to use water more efficiently.
Lapola adds:
“[We should] have more experimental studies, in which we manipulate the ecosystem to test its limits in terms of resilience – for example, testing [the effects of] higher temperature and CO2.”
Spracklen tells Carbon Brief that researchers need more observational data, but warns that observations also have their “limitations”. A combination of observations and models are needed to make better predictions, he says.
Bochow points out that climate models show “a big spread in the response of the Amazon rainforest to climate change and deforestation” and agrees that there is an “urgent need to constrain the models better by doing more field experiments and observations”.
He also emphasises that “the exact numbers of our model are not to be taken for granted”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The model simulations are used as guidance where to look for characteristic changes of stability loss in observations. Our study really focuses on the observed changes in the historical data and these do not depend on our employed model.”
The post Drying of Amazon could be early warning of ‘tipping point’ for the rainforest appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Drying of Amazon could be early warning of ‘tipping point’ for the rainforest
Climate Change
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.
The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.
Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.
“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.
Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.
Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.
Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.
In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.
Corporate lobbying in the shadows
Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.
“That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”
The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.
The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.
Green groups fail to stop bill
The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.
But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.
A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.
“Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035
Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.
But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.
The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.
Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”
Copycat legislation on the rise
New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.
In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.
The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.
“Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.
The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
Climate Change
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS.
Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.
Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.
The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.
The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.
Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output
Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.
Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.
Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.
Stronger environmental enforcement
Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.
This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.
The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.
In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.
None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.
Unequal benefits
For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.
In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.
Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.
The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.
None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.
The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry appeared first on Climate Home News.
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Climate Change
Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans
SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.
The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.
An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.
Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.
Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.
“The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.
“The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”
Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.
“The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.
“The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”
After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.
Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.
“Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465
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