Copper prices fell below $9,000 a ton for the first time since early April due to a global stock market selloff and rising pessimism about demand in China and elsewhere. The industrial metal has dropped by about 20% since its mid-May record high, driven by concerns over increasing inventories and weak conditions in the Chinese spot market.
What Causes the Market Downturn?
Copper is hailed as the economic bellwether because it rises and falls in tandem with industrial production. The metal is also popular as “Doctor Copper”, a slang word for copper’s price to foresee the economy’s overall health.
As seen below, copper price at London Metal Exchange (LME) has been dropping since it hit record high in May.

The falling copper prices is further worsened by a significant selloff in global technology stocks and doubts about the growth of the artificial intelligence industry. The AI industry had previously boosted copper prices due to anticipated surges in data center use and power infrastructure.
Gong Ming, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co., noted that global growth concerns could drive copper prices lower, although prices might find support around $8,900 due to potential supply risks. Copper dropped 2.2% to $8,900 a ton and was trading at $9,010 at the time of writing. Nearly all metals were lower on the LME, with tin declining 2.6% and zinc losing 1.5%.
Iron ore also declined by 0.9% to trade below $100 a ton in Singapore, with signs of robust supply continuing. According to Liz Gao, a senior iron ore analyst at CRU, weak steel demand and negative steel margins in China are causing mills to reduce production and avoid building raw material stocks.
Despite recent rate cuts by China’s central bank to revive the economy, copper price continued to fall. It marks the worst weekly slump in almost two years, as a modest rate cut in China failed to alleviate concerns about demand in the world’s largest commodities consumer.
China’s Copper Exports Hit Record High
The red metal dropped for the 6th consecutive day despite China’s efforts to support its economy through unexpected interest-rate cuts. The lack of short-term stimulus from a recent major Communist Party meeting added to investor disappointment.
Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Bank NV, noted:
“We expect copper and other industrial metals to decline further in the near term. That trend would reflect “a softer demand outlook in China.
China’s refined copper exports reached a record high in June, driven by weak domestic demand, prompting smelters to seek overseas markets. Exports more than doubled to 157,751 tons from May, surpassing the previous all-time high of 102,000 tons set in 2012, according to customs data.

Asia’s largest economy experienced its slowest growth in five quarters in the three months through June. This leads to a 14% drop in global copper prices since mid-May.
The surge in exports is also reflected in the increased copper inventories at LME warehouses, which have more than doubled since mid-May, reaching their highest levels since September 2021. This increase is largely due to the lack of domestic demand.
Benchmark Minerals Intelligence believes that despite spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) at record lows, Chinese smelters are maintaining strong output. Benchmark estimates most smelters in China are loss-making, despite improved by-product credits.
Interestingly, copper prices peaking in May increases scrap copper supply by 20% year-on-year. Most incremental supply went to Chinese smelters, boosting refined copper production.
Copper Demand for Clean Energy is Positive
With prices now below the $9,000 threshold, scrap merchants are less willing to supply, and inventories are low. As scrap supply fades in Q3, raw material supply will tighten. Benchmark projects a refined copper production growth rate of 2.3% in H2.
Moreover, though China’s refined copper supply was strong in Q2, consumption growth was weak. High copper prices led to reduced restocking and plant utilization, causing a counter-seasonal stock-build and record exports in May.
Despite short-term pressures, end-use demand indicators are positive: electric vehicle sales are up 32%, and solar installations and grid investments increased 29% and 22%, respectively.
The post Copper Prices Slump Below $9,000: What Does It Mean for Global Growth? appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments
Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.
1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project
Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.
This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.
CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.
2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain
The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?
Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.
Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.
The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.
3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply
WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.
The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.
The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.
The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.
4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward
Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?
Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.
SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.
For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.
Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.
5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions
Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.
Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.
Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.
A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.
6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision
Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.
Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.
Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.
This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.
Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC
Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.
Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.
Sources
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
- World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
- Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
Carbon Footprint
How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do
A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.
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Carbon Footprint
EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026
EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.
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