Nicola Sturgeon is an MSP (Member of the Scottish Parliament) and former First Minister of Scotland. Ben Wilson is International Policy Lead for Stop Climate Chaos Scotland.
The world is at a crossroads. The impacts of climate change are destabilising societies, causing conflict, and deepening economic hardship. Yet, instead of rising to the challenge, too many political leaders are retreating from climate commitments, undermining a global consensus that has anchored peace and security since the Second World War.
This, then, is a moment to remind ourselves that climate action is not just about protecting the environment – it is also essential for global security. Failure to act now will drive population displacement, fuel political unrest, and create conflict.
Climate change is already driving conflicts around the world. The war in Tigray, Ethiopia, was fuelled in part by climate-induced droughts. Similarly, in Sudan, shifting migration patterns due to desertification and water scarcity have heightened ethnic and regional tensions, leading to violence and mass displacement.
These are not isolated incidents. If we don’t act now, climate disasters will fuel human insecurity on an unprecedented scale.
The economic consequences of climate inaction also pose a serious threat to peace. When communities lose their livelihoods, social unrest can follow. Economic hardship opens the door to far-right forces seeking to stoke xenophobia and racism. Governments that neglect climate action now increase the likelihood of instability in future.
“Forgotten” fragile states unite to end climate-finance blind spot
Net zero will bring economic benefits
The trend of global leaders backtracking on climate action is being driven by an increasingly sensationalist (and ill-informed) public narrative that net zero is bad for the economy. This is a falsehood now (a recent CBI report showed that the net-zero industry is an important driver of growth) and certainly wrong in the long-term. Ignoring climate action now will saddle us with significant financial and human costs in the years ahead.
As the Stern Review made clear nearly two decades ago, the economic benefits of taking decisive action on climate change far outweigh the costs of inaction. But it’s not just about economics – it’s also about justice.
The latest IPCC reports confirm that climate impacts are already driving poverty, hunger and displacement in some of the world’s most vulnerable communities. These inequalities will deepen – with consequences for all of us – unless emissions are reduced and adaptation efforts accelerated.
UK aid budget cuts threaten climate finance pledge to vulnerable nations, experts warn
The decision of the UK and many other governments to cut aid budgets to fund defence is particularly jarring. The climate finance commitments of the Paris Agreement will almost certainly be hit, further undermining the delicate balance between the Global North and the Global South. COP29 in Baku only just avoided collapse. Without a renewed commitment to climate justice this year, COP30 and the underlying premise of global cooperation on climate change will be at risk.
Loss and damage funding not a luxury
There is no doubt that climate justice demands a sharper focus on mitigating emissions and adaptation. But it needs more than that.
At COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland became the first country to commit finance to the issue of loss and damage. Loss and damage refers to payments from the Global North to the Global South to deal with the irreversible climate impacts they are already experiencing. It is an act of reparation rather than charity.
The Scottish Government’s initial commitment of £2m was modest but heralded as “breaking the taboo” on this most contentious of issues. Other countries followed and by COP28, the United Nations Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage had been established with more than US$700 million pledged.
Loss and damage fund to hand out $250 million in initial phase
In the face of pushback against action on mitigation and adaptation, and a re-emergence of climate denial in UK and global politics, many people, even climate activists, might wonder if loss and damage is now an unaffordable luxury, and question if this is the time to spend political capital, let alone hard cash, on reparations.
In our view, stepping back from loss and damage would be a serious mistake. Failure to ameliorate the irreversible impacts already being suffered will drive more conflict across the world. Moreover, if the Global North breaks its promises again, the understandable scepticism of the Global South about the efficacy of the COP process will only grow. Acting in good faith on all aspects of climate injustice is fundamental to any vision of a peaceful world.
At its core, climate action is a question of justice. The poorest countries have contributed least to the crisis and yet they bear the brunt of its impacts. This is not just a moral failure – it is also a geopolitical risk. We cannot expect the Global South to cooperate in a system that repeatedly ignores their needs and priorities. The principle of fairness is not just an ethical consideration; it is a practical necessity for sustaining peace.
Multilateralism on the line at COP30
This is why the principle of multilateralism – the foundation of the post-war global order – must be defended.
Small nations matter. The principle that Fiji and Kiribati have the same vote as the United States or Russia in climate negotiations is not a flaw – it is a cornerstone of global peace. When powerful countries sideline ‘one country, one vote’ multilateralism – as many in today’s geopolitical wrangling are doing – they signal that might makes right, an approach that make conflict more, not less, likely.
In short, the retreat from strong, multilateral climate action is not just an environmental failure – it is a security risk. Leaders who defund climate finance in favour of military spending are not making the world safer; they are creating the conditions for future conflicts.
COP30 chief calls for global unity on climate action as cooperation falters
At COP30 in Brazil, the future of global cooperation on climate change – indeed of the UN process itself – is on the line. Leaders of goodwill across the world must recognise that climate justice, whether on mitigation, adaptation, or loss and damage, is an essential ingredient for a peaceful world. Pandering to strong-man egos will only deepen injustice and increase global instability.
For the sake of future generations, this one’s leaders must stand up for justice. They must be willing to see beyond today’s headlines and secure a future built on the common good. 2025 might feel like the start of a road toward global conflict and climate breakdown, but it doesn’t need to be.
With political will, COP30 can be a bounce-back moment when the norms and values necessary for peace are reinforced. The imperative of bequeathing a healthy and peaceful planet to those who come after us demands that it be so.
The post Climate justice is vital for global security appeared first on Climate Home News.
The launch of the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) has been put back yet again, raising doubts about the institution’s future ability to finance fossil fuel projects – its main objective – as global lenders retreat from such investments over climate concerns, experts told Climate Home News.
The bank, which had been billed to launch in September after a series of delays, is now scheduled to begin operations in November, according to the head of the African Energy Chamber, an advocacy body for the continent’s oil and gas sector.
Even as the world aims to transition away from fossil fuels, many African leaders have made clear they want to continue exploring and extracting the continent’s large oil and gas deposits – estimated at around 125 billion barrels of crude and over 600 trillion cubic feet of gas – to boost economic development.
As a group, Africa sided with a number of powerful oil-and-gas producing nations in blocking progress on negotiations to craft a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels at last year’s UN COP30 climate talks, although some countries did individually support the proposal.
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While chairing the African group at the summit, the gas-dependent nation advised the continent’s ministers to block language on transitioning away from fossil fuels
Meanwhile, major projects under development across the continent – including the 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and Dangote’s 700,000-barrel-per-day Kenyan refinery – show that African governments see oil and gas as playing a significant role in meeting their energy and economic needs for many years to come.
In 2022, at a gathering of the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization (APPO) in oil-rich Angola, ministers from its member states adopted a resolution to create the Africa Energy Bank to finance projects for the production, use and trade of oil, gas and broader energy sources.
African control over energy resources
An article on the APPO website explains that the bank was conceived as a way to overcome “disenchantment” with fossil fuels among “the international community” which it said had crystallised around the “energy transition” concept.
“If Western countries, after having long taken advantage of the energy sources they now revile to develop, can afford the luxury of abandoning them, this is not the case in Africa,” it adds, noting that many of the continent’s economies are still largely dependent on oil and gas revenues.
A separate web page about the bank, also hosted on APPO’s website, says its objectives include financing the exploration, production and refining of oil and gas, as well as supporting member states in transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources “while ensuring energy security”.
Said Addi, a former executive with Shell and energy commodities trading house Gunvor, said the new bank was judged necessary because financing for hydrocarbons from many traditional international lenders has become constrained.
In trying to fill this financing gap, Africa is not simply setting up another fund to support oil and gas, he added. “It is also an attempt to give African countries greater control over how their energy resources and infrastructure are financed,” he explained.
Nigeria to host the AEB
The energy bank – a joint initiative of APPO and the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) – has so far suffered several delays and is almost two years behind schedule. The initial plan was to start operations in January 2025, with Nigeria as the host country, but the bank’s opening was delayed to June of that year to allow Nigeria time to finalise the construction of the bank’s headquarters in Abuja.
After the government announced the completion of the offices in late November 2025, a new launch date was set for January 2026, which was moved back to April, June and then September. Now it has shifted again to November, raising concerns that the institution may be losing momentum.
Former Shell executive Addi said that if the capital is eventually paid in, the bank becomes operational and its first projects are commercially credible, then the delays will be regarded as normal teething troubles in setting up a multilateral institution. But, he added, scepticism will be justified if it continues to stall.
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Baron Lamarré, an oil and gas expert and former Petronas oil trader, said that missing “three deadlines in a row is not normal”, and warned that if the timeline slips again, “the story flips from ‘ambitious institution finding its footing’ to ‘good idea that lost momentum before it found any’.”
The Nigerian government, APPO and Afreximbank did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.
The funding challenge
The Africa Energy Bank is targeting base capital of $5 billion, with plans to scale up to $120 billion within five years by mobilising private-sector funds. However, it is expected to start operations with initial seed capital of $500 million.
The funding plan is to have the 18 member countries of the APPO contribute $83 million each to the bank as equity for a combined $1.5 billion. Afreximbank, other non-APPO African countries and investors outside the continent are expected to provide the remaining $3.5 billion.
But even the initial $500 million has not been easy to mobilise. In May, APPO Secretary-General Farid Ghezali called on members to deliver on their pledges towards the startup goal before the end of June. But the delays suggest this may not have been met, with experts saying Africa may be finding it difficult to self-fund its oil and gas projects in the absence of international capital.
Lamarré said every extension of the deadline points to the fact that “raising fossil fuel capital in Africa without the majors and their financing networks is brutally hard”.
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Since 2020, Western lenders, export credit agencies and insurers have been in steady retreat from African hydrocarbons, he said, while oil majors are divesting their African assets, handing over fields to smaller local operators whose credit ratings are not high enough to borrow cheaply.
Even capital from China and the Gulf, which has partially filled the gap, cannot match the volume, tenor or pricing that Western investors once offered, Lamarré argued.
“If mobilising the first $500 million of seed capital [for the AEB] has taken this long, that’s the clearest signal yet of how steep the climb to $120 billion looks,” he said, noting that the continent’s energy financing gap is as large as $30 billion-$45 billion per year.
Africa’s investment landscape, meanwhile, has been shifting. While foreign direct investment dropped from a 2024 peak, inflows remained roughly one-third above the continent’s long-term average in 2025, according to the 2026 World Investment Report from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). They are concentrated in a few sectors including critical minerals needed for renewable energy technologies, battery manufacturing and advanced industrial production.
At the same time, data on global energy investment from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that fossil fuel investment in Africa has declined over the last decade.
“Trojan horse” for fossil fuels
While the Africa Energy Bank struggles to get off the ground, climate campaigners have criticised its primary aim of financing oil and gas on the continent at a time when the world is starting to move away from high-carbon fuels to cleaner alternatives.
Bhekumuzi Dean Bhebhe, founder of Africa Change Lab, described the bank as a “Trojan horse”, arguing that its focus on fossil fuel financing runs counter to the global energy transition and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 goals of sustainable development and inclusive growth.
The energy bank, he warned, “risks locking Africa into a new cycle of debt, dependency and fossil fuel entrenchment”, adding that its financing blueprint does not pave the way for a climate-resilient future. “In truth, it is to deepen the same extractive, carbon-heavy pathways that the continent should be moving away from,” he added.
Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline
Kenya-based climate and energy expert Joab Okanda said the AEB’s plan to finance oil and gas is “a misplaced priority” and it should instead back clean energy in line with the policies of some of Africa’s major export markets like Europe.
In addition, the new bank could struggle to mobilise enough resources to advance large-scale oil and gas projects, he added, noting that its proposed $5-billion initial capital is equivalent to the cost of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline alone.
The AEB’s aim of backing more fossil fuels should be flipped “to support countries that are oil-dependent to start working on their transition plans”, Okanda said.
The post Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes appeared first on Climate Home News.
Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes
A booklet published by the UK’s opposition Conservative party includes a “cost of net-zero” that appears to have been doubled by a spreadsheet error.
The “common sense” policy document argues that “what people ultimately want is a government competent enough to solve the problems for which it takes responsibility”.
In a section that says “sophisticat[ed]…modelling” should not be a substitute for “political judgement”, the “Right Way” document disparages various estimates of the cost of net-zero.
The Conservative document then claims – incorrectly – that the government’s official adviser, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), had put the cost of net-zero at close to £1tn. It says:
“In 2020, the CCC estimated that its route to net-zero would cost £957bn.”
In fact, the CCC’s 2020 estimate was exactly half this amount – £478bn – and last year it published a revised figure of £108bn, largely as a result of the falling cost of electric vehicles (EVs).
Spreadsheet error
The Conservative party’s erroneous claim appears to stem from another report that had accidentally added up numbers twice, using a spreadsheet published by the CCC in 2020.
The 2020 spreadsheet contains a table listing the additional investments that would be needed to build a net-zero economy, from low-carbon electricity generation through to heat pumps and EVs.
These extra capital expenditures, listed as “CAPEX”, add up to a total of £1.38tn over the 30 years of 2020-50. They are set against operational savings, listed as “OPEX”, of £0.90tn.
Added up over 2020-50, the combined CAPEX and OPEX figures come to a total of £478bn.
In addition to the annual sectoral CAPEX and OPEX figures, the CCC’s 2020 spreadsheet also has a line giving combined totals for each year. It appears that someone has added all of these numbers together, resulting in the savings and costs being counted twice.
This double-counted total for the cost of net-zero amounts to £957bn – as shown in the image below – and it appears to be the source of the claim in the Conservative booklet.
At the time of publication in 2020, the CCC said that the £478bn net cost of net-zero amounted to less than 1% of GDP over 30 years – and that the large investment needed would not only result in savings due to lower fossil-fuel imports, but that it would boost GDP overall, by around 2%.
In 2025, the CCC revised its estimates for investment costs and operating savings to £670bn and £562bn respectively, giving a net total of £108bn over 2025-50, or less than 0.2% of GDP.
Earlier this year, the committee said that cutting emissions to net-zero would cost less than a single fossil-fuel price shock and that doing so would have benefits worth £110bn per year.
Paper trail
The erroneous claim in the Conservative document is referenced to the CCC’s 2020 advice on the UK’s sixth “carbon budget”, which, as explained, does not contain the £957bn figure.
The earliest online use of the £957bn figure found by Carbon Brief is a 12 January 2026 article in the Spectator, by retired engineer and self-described “accidental energy analyst” David Turver.
A day later, Turver repeated the mistaken number in a report for the free-market Institute of Economic Affairs. His report cites figure 5.3 of the CCC’s 2020 advice.
However, as set out above, the CCC spreadsheet containing the data for figure 5.3 only adds up to £478bn, half the figure claimed by Turver.
It appears that Turver accidentally added up all of the numbers in the CCC spreadsheet, without noting that it already included a line for the annual total. This results in double-counting the cost.
(Turver’s report also triggered a slew of inaccurate headlines stating that net-zero would cost £7.6tn – or even £9tn. These figures, which came from Turver’s report, were based, among other things, on the implicit assumption that fossil fuels and the cars, boilers and power plants that use them are all free.)
After Turver’s report and article in January 2026, the erroneous £957bn figure was repeated in March by the Great British Think Tank. The organisation has the tagline “data, not vibes” and says of its work: “Every figure [is] sourced from official public bodies.”
The £957bn figure then appeared in the Conservative “Right Way” document in October 2026.
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The post Factcheck: UK Conservatives double the ‘cost of net-zero’ after spreadsheet blunder appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-uk-conservatives-double-the-cost-of-net-zero-after-spreadsheet-blunder
SYDNEY, Friday 9 October 2026 — In response to the Environment Protection Order issued by the National EPA to stop deforestation at a cattle station in North Queensland, the following comments can be attributed to Adele Chasson, Nature Policy Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:
“Greenpeace welcomes the Environment Protection Order to stop deforestation operations at Wombinoo Station in North Queensland. This order is good news for koalas, wildlife and the Great Barrier Reef. Without intervention, this bulldozing operation could have led to more than 1,000 tonnes of toxic sediment runoff flowing into the Great Barrier Reef every year. This is the first such order under the reformed national nature laws, and shows the potential for genuine environment protection provided strong action continues.
“But this is just one station in one state, and now we need rapid action. Rampant deforestation in Australia continues to destroy precious forests, pushing threatened animals like the koala to the brink of extinction, and poisoning the Great Barrier Reef with muddy runoff. Every minute, the equivalent of a dump truck of sediment enters the Reef, smothering coral and threatening our global icon.
“This first stop order is a great start, but the Albanese government must stop widespread deforestation threatening the Great Barrier Reef and endangered wildlife using the new nature laws. We need a no-go zone plan for the Great Barrier Reef to reign in the bulldozing of forests in the catchment area, and for the National EPA to use the full extent of its powers to catch bulldozers in real time and crack down on deforestation with strong sanctions.
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‘Good news for wildlife’ as EPA puts stop order on Qld cattle station deforestation