Unusually warm ocean temperatures fueled one of the worst hurricanes on record. New research finds climate change increased the storm’s likelihood.
Fueled by unusually warm waters, Hurricane Melissa this week turned into one of the strongest Atlantic storms ever recorded. Now a new rapid attribution study suggests human-induced climate change made the deadly tropical cyclone four times more likely.
Climate Change Made Hurricane Melissa Four Times More Likely, Study Suggests
Climate Change
At Rallies in Utah and Wyoming, PacifiCorp Customers Urge the Utility to Pursue Renewables
Residents of both states fear increased pollution and higher bills if the company does not ramp up its investments in wind, solar and batteries.
Activists in Utah and Wyoming held rallies this week urging state regulators to scrutinize a document they believe will raise energy bills for hundreds of thousands of Westerners, and worsen air pollution across the northern Rockies.
At Rallies in Utah and Wyoming, PacifiCorp Customers Urge the Utility to Pursue Renewables
Climate Change
Brazil’s environment minister urges heads of state to address fossil fuels at COP30
Brazil’s environment minister Marina Silva said she hopes for heads of state arriving in Belém next week for COP30 to send a clear message on the energy transition in their speeches, and particularly on the transition away from fossil fuels.
“Our heads of state must think of sending a message on topics that are certainly the causes for climate change, which are: can we supply the planet with more renewable energy and can we have a just, planned, gradual and long-term decommissioning of fossil fuels,” said Silva during a press briefing on Friday.
At COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed on a landmark deal to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. But at last year’s COP29, governments failed to address this pledge after oil-producing nations blocked all mentions to fossil fuels.
The minister, a close ally of Brazilian president Lula da Silva, noted that this was the language agreed at COP, adding that “this should be for the ending of fossil fuels and deforestation.” “But,” she added, “this needs investment and planning. Things do not happen with magical thinking.”
Fossil fuel-producing countries – among them Brazil – still plan to produce more than double the amount of oil, gas and coal by 2030 than would be consistent with the 1.5C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, according to a 2025 Production Gap report by a group of think tanks.
The Brazilian COP30 presidency also reported that 57 heads of state are expected to participate in the leaders’ summit, a high-level section where countries send political guidelines for negotiators. This year, the summit will take place on November 6 and 7, days before formal talks begin on November 10.
In total, 143 delegations are expected to send representatives to the summit, according to the Brazilian government. Some delegations like the US and Argentina – both with anti-climate presidents – have not yet confirmed participation at COP30, they added.
Silva added that heads of state joining the Belém Climate Summit should set an early tone for negotiations on gender and climate adaptation, both of which are set to deliver outcomes at this COP. On adaptation, the Brazilian minister said messaging should include finance for developing countries and a key list of indicators to measure resilience to climate impacts known as the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).
“If there is no global support for local responses to the impacts of climate change, the most vulnerable countries will keep paying the biggest costs,” said the Brazilian minister.
New fund set to be launched
On November 6, Brazilian president Lula da Silva is expected to host a launch event for the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a new fund that would leverage public and private investments in financial markets and use the returns to pay tropical countries protecting rainforests.
The World Bank was recently confirmed as the interim host and trustee for the TFFF, which Brazilian officials said transforms the fund “from an idea into a fully operational reality”. Brazilian officials tried to appease concerns from developing coutnries, which have been critical of the bank’s role in the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.
“The World Bank will not set the priorities (for the fund). It is an operator,” Silva told journalists at the briefing. “The TFFF does not lose any controls from donor and recipient countries because it is being operated by the World Bank. The advantage is that the World Bank operates with AAA titles, which makes the TFFF structure viable.”
So far, Brazil and Indonesia have announced the first contributions to the TFFF, both with a $1 billion investment. The fund’s concept note says that the fund should ideally have a startup capital of $25 billion in public funds and $100 in private investments. Brazilian officials say this figure does not need to be met at COP30, but that the fund must receive political backing.
Donor countries, who are expected to pledge new funds at the leaders’ summit, have posed “tough questions”, a Brazilian TFFF official told a panel hosted by Climate Home News. “It seems Ethiopia may be more willing to commit to this than the UK and France,” he joked.
Mauricio Carvalho Lyrio, secretary for Climate, Energy and Environment at the Brazilian Foreign Relations Ministry, said at the press briefing this Friday that “we have very positive expectations that Brazil will have good company in terms of new announcements.”
The post Brazil’s environment minister urges heads of state to address fossil fuels at COP30 appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil’s environment minister urges heads of state to address fossil fuels at COP30
Climate Change
DeBriefed 31 October 2025: Hurricane Melissa strikes Jamaica; Climate plans overshoot 1.5C; Protest crackdowns
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Hurricane Melissa
‘TOTAL DEVASTATION’: Hurricane Melissa has killed at least 49 people after sweeping through the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and Bermuda, reported Independent. Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holness said the storm left “total devastation”, destroying homes and infrastructure and leaving people “stranded on roofs and without power”, said BBC News. In Haiti, at least 30 people were killed in floods, Reuters added.
WARM WATERS: Melissa is tied as the strongest Atlantic hurricane to ever hit land, slamming Jamaica with winds of 185mph and fuelled by anomalously warm waters, reported the Associated Press. Fossil-fuelled climate change made the storm “four times more likely”, according to analysis cited by Agence France-Presse. Early estimates suggest infrastructure damage alone could amount to 40% of Jamaica’s gross domestic product, said the newswire.
RECORD RAINS: Elsewhere, Al Jazeera reported on major floods in central Vietnam, where the former imperial city of Huế saw record rainfall of more than 1,000mm over a 24-hour period, according to the country’s weather agency. The Associated Press reported that climate change is “driving more intense winds, heavier rainfall and shifting precipitation patterns across East Asia”.
Climate plans off track for 1.5C
‘DRASTICALLY SHORT’: The latest national climate plans will cause global emissions to drop 10% by 2035 from 2019 levels, “bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time”, but falling “drastically short” of the 60% cut needed to keep 1.5C in sight, said the Guardian. The plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement – were assessed by the UN in a synthesis report ahead of COP30, the publication said. The 10% cut reflects plans announced by China and the EU, in addition to formal submissions from 64 countries, according to Reuters.
OVERSHOOT ‘INEVITABLE’: UN secretary-general António Guterres said in a joint interview with the Guardian and the Amazonian publication Sumaúma that overshooting 1.5C of global warming was now “inevitable” and would have “devastating consequences”. Guterres “did not give up on the [1.5C] target”, but urged world leaders to “change course” during COP30 to ensure the “overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon”.
Around the world
- DELIVERY: The UK government published its “carbon budget and growth delivery” plan, outlining policies to meet its mid-2030s climate targets. Read more in Carbon Brief’s in-depth coverage of the plan.
- DEAL UNEARTHED: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have settled a dispute over rare-earth mineral supplies during trade talks, said the Guardian. Trump described the talks as “amazing” and agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, it added.
- AVOIDABLE DEATHS: Climate change and policy “failures” are leading to “millions” of avoidable deaths each year, according to Le Monde’s coverage of the latest Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change.
- DEFORESTATION DOWN: On the eve of hosting COP30, Brazil’s government announced an 11% drop in annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, the fourth consecutive annual fall and lowest deforestation rate since 2014, reported Agence France-Presse.
- DUTCH ELECTION: Democrats 66 (D66), the centrist party led by former climate minister Rob Jetten, narrowly won a snap general election in the Netherlands, said Brussels Signal.
- EU FLEXIBILITY: As the EU continues to negotiate 2040 emissions targets, the bloc is considering a “more flexible path” for industries to meet the goals, reported Reuters.
12 times
The extent to which current finance flows would have to increase to meet developing countries’ adaptation finance needs in 2035, according to the latest UN adaptation gap report covered by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- Young children in sub-Saharan Africa are 77% more at risk from malaria for every 1C temperature increase | PLOS One
- Social media use is linked to “climate anxiety, climate doom and support for radical action” | Climatic Change
- Future droughts could weaken peatlands’ ability to store carbon, creating a positive feedback cycle for climate change | Science
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured

Carbon Brief explored the importance of soil health for food security and climate change in a new Q&A. As the diagram above illustrates, agricultural soil is composed of four layers – known as soil horizons – containing varying quantities of minerals, organic matter, living organisms, air and water. The world’s soils have lost 133bn tonnes of carbon since the advent of agriculture around 12,000 years ago, with crop production and cattle grazing responsible in equal part.
Spotlight
Crackdowns on climate and environmental activism
This week, Carbon Brief speaks to Mary Lawlor, UN special rapporteur on human rights defenders, who led a recent report highlighting crackdowns on the rights of climate and environmental activists around the world.
Carbon Brief: Why do you see climate change as a human-rights issue?
Mary Lawlor: I don’t think there’s any doubt about climate change being a human-rights issue nowadays, because everyone can see it. It interferes with so many rights. The right to food, for example. We’ve seen the situation where drought, storms and floods interfere with food production. And then if you look at the right to life – according to the WHO, we’re currently seeing an average of 175,000 heat-related deaths per year around the world, and those numbers will increase. But we now also have advisory opinions of the ICJ, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, all of which state clearly that climate change is a reality. They see it as a human-rights crisis.
CB: What human-rights violations are being faced by climate and environmental activists around the world right now?
ML: We went to a lot of Indigenous communities in the Amazon and we saw firsthand the threats against Indigenous defenders in Brazil who are opposing carbon-credit projects in their territories, where they themselves have been reducing deforestation with success for years. Then, for example, there were smears against a lawyer in Argentina who was supporting communities in their legal fight against the extraction of lithium from their territories without their consent. And, then, you have surveillance of climate activists organising peaceful protests against new fossil-fuel projects, for example, in the Philippines. So it’s kind of like an octopus, the tentacles are reaching out.

In some of the more developed countries, like France and Spain, you have accusations of terrorism against peaceful climate-justice movements. In Germany, you had the investigation and prosecution of a climate-justice group for alleged organised crime based solely on their peaceful protests that put no human being in danger and did no harm to anyone.
CB: What are some examples that you’ve seen of good practice by governments in relation to the work of climate and environmental activists?
ML: My favourite is Brazil and MST [Landless Workers’ Movement]. They were aided in their tree-planting programme by the federal authorities, who provided helicopters and the federal highway police piloted these helicopters. Seeds of the endangered juçara palm and araucaria trees could be air-dropped over land in Paraná, after the devastating fires that took place. So that’s my absolute favourite, because it showed how a state and defenders can work together as allies to prevent destruction and even worse climate change.
CB: According to Global Witness, 413 land and environmental defenders were killed in Brazil during 2012-2024. What is the current situation for environmental defenders in Brazil going into COP30?
[Brazil] are really making efforts, as far as I can see, to address the root causes – and this is really why human-rights defenders are in such danger – that is, land is at the heart of all the problems there. But progress is still very slow. At the moment, only 16 territories have been demarcated by [Brazilian president] Lula and that is hugely important because, as I said, it’s at the root of pretty much all the attacks and killings by either the thugs associated with the companies, or the big landowners, the illegal logging, and all the stuff that is happening there. So that is something that we really need a speed up of – the demarcation of Indigenous lands.
When it comes to COP30, they’ve put some effort into making it more inclusive, especially when it comes to bringing the voices and experiences of Indigenous defenders into the negotiations. Now we’ll see what will happen in November and what the negotiations bring.
This interview has been edited for length.
Watch, read, listen
‘GOD’S WILL’: Samaa TV followed four street workers across Pakistan, exploring their views on climate change through the lens of faith.
COP EXPECTATIONS: Down to Earth unpacked what to expect from COP30 from a global-south perspective in their Carbon Politics podcast.
1.5C ALIGNED: Scientist and former UN climate lead Ploy Achakulwisut grappled via a LinkedIn post with the challenges of assessing whether national targets are aligned with a 1.5C world.
Coming up
- 4 November: UN emissions gap 2025 report launch
- 4 November: International Energy Agency (IEA) world energy outlook 2025 report launch
- 6-7 November: COP30 leaders summit, Belém, Brazil
Pick of the jobs
- International Institute for Sustainable Development, head of secretariat, national adaptation plan global network | Salary: CA$129,000-CA$161,000. Location: Ottawa or Toronto, Canada (hybrid)
- SRM360, lead writer/editor | Salary: $100,000-$120,000. Location: Remote
- Project Drawdown, senior analyst, climate philanthropy and investing | Salary: $120,000-$160,000. Location: US
- Climate News Tracker, journalism insights analyst | Salary: Unknown. Location: London (hybrid)
- University of Birmingham, climate and public health policy impact fellow | Salary: £36,636-£46,049. Location: Birmingham, UK
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 31 October 2025: Hurricane Melissa strikes Jamaica; Climate plans overshoot 1.5C; Protest crackdowns appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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