Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
China submits WTO complaint against US over EV tax credit
US-CHINA SUBSIDY CONFLICT: On 26 March, China filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against the US’s “discriminatory” requirements for electric vehicles (EV) subsidies, which, it argues, makes EV containing components made in China, Russia, North Korea and Iran ineligible for tax credits worth $3,750 to $7,500, said the Associated Press. A day later, the US treasury secretary Janet Yellen raised the issue of “overcapacity” of “green technologies” from China, including solar, EV and lithium-ion batteries, during her visit to a solar cell factory in the US, reported the New York Times. The outlet quoted Yellen saying “China’s overcapacity distorts global prices and production patterns and hurts American firms and workers, as well as firms and workers around the world”.
PRESIDENTIAL CONVERSATION: Earlier this week, Chinese president Xi Jinping and US president Joe Biden held a phone conversation. The read-out of the conversation released by the US embassy in China said: “President Biden also raised continued concerns about the PRC’s unfair trade policies and non-market economic practices, which harm American workers and families.” But it said the two leaders “reviewed and encouraged progress on key issues discussed at the Woodside summit…and continuing efforts on climate change.” The briefing from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “The two sides agreed to stay in communication…carrying out dialogue and cooperation in such areas as counternarcotics, artificial intelligence and climate response.”
CLIMATE DIPLOMACY: Meanwhile, Rick Duke, the deputy US special envoy on climate change, told Reuters that the cooperation between the US and China on methane emissions is “advancing”. He added: “We are, indeed, in the process of propelling that work together.” According to Politico, EU climate envoy Tony Agotha and top climate diplomats from Germany, France, Denmark and the Netherlands will join a trip to Beijing on 8 April to build a “multinational diplomatic track to engage China on climate change”. Separately, the US embassy and Chinese foreign ministry confirmed upcoming visits to China by Yellen on 4-9 April and US secretary of state Antony Blinken “in the coming weeks”.
EV EXPANSION: According to a report in the Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post, anti-subsidy probe and trade restrictions “reduced” the export volume of Chinese EVs to the EU and US by 20% and 42%, respectively, in the first two months of this year, prompting Beijing to look towards other markets. Chinese EV sales in Central Asia have increased 2.3 times during the same period. Meanwhile, an analysis by Transport & Environment showed Chinese EV sales are “on track” to reach 25% of electric car sales in the EU by the end of 2024. The outlet added that the bloc should not aim to shield its carmakers from “meaningful competition”, which would limit affordability of EVs for Europeans.
EU probes Chinese solar firms
SOLAR INVESTIGATION: The Financial Times reported that the EU has opened investigations into the subsidiaries of two Chinese solar manufacturers which may have “been granted foreign subsidies that distort the [EU’s] internal market”. The outlet adds that “the probes reflect a hardening stance in Europe towards cheap Chinese imports, which the EU’s solar industry has blamed for the heavy losses and plant closures of several European solar panel manufacturers”.
SECOND INQUIRY: The South China Morning Post said that this marks the second use of the EU’s foreign subsidies regulation to investigate Chinese firms, which “demonstrates Brussels’ willingness to use the commercial weaponry at its disposal to counter what it sees as unfair competition from Beijing”. In February, the EU investigated a Chinese rail firm, which later withdrew its bid to enter the Bulgarian market, it added.
Renewable installations push coal capacity share down
COAL SHRINKING?: The China Electricity Council, a government-affiliated research thinktank, announced that coal’s share of installed capacity has fallen to 39% of the total mix, as of February 2024, according to industry news outlet BJX News. This was driven by the rapid installation of renewables, the outlet added. China Energy Net reported that, in January and February this year, China installed 36.7 gigawatts (GW) of solar, which is 80% more than last year. Total installed solar capacity stood at 650GW at the end of February, a 56.9% increase, while wind capacity grew 21.3% to 450GW. However, it added, utilisation of both solar and wind shrank slightly in the first two months of the year compared to a year ago.
GRID OVERLOAD: According to Bloomberg, following “record” solar and wind power installations last year, “several regions in China have shown strains handling the new surges of electricity”. Meanwhile, London Stock Exchange Group analyst Chen Xuewan shared on Twitter that the southern provinces of Guangdong, Yunnan and Guizhou may face “power gaps” this year unless power system flexibility is improved.
2024 TARGETS: The National Energy Administration (NEA) released its guidelines for the department’s energy work in 2024, which pledges both to “focus on improving energy security capacity” and to “focus on promoting green and low-carbon energy transformation”. It aims to have non-fossil energy comprise 55% of the energy mix and 18.9% of power consumption. More specifically, wind and solar power will account for more than 17% of power generation by the end of the year. Meanwhile, coal production will be “stabilised and increased”, while oil production will be “stabilised at more than 200m tonnes” and natural gas will “maintain its rapid pace of production”.
China’s climate envoy reinforces role of fossil fuels at Boao
‘CLEAN’ FOSSIL FUELS : At this year’s “Boao forum for Asia” in Hainan – Asia’s version of Davos – China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said that “[China] will still keep our fair share of fossil fuels, but they must be used purely”, adding that this was a “critical” point, Bloomberg reported. Liu also said that the world needs to “massively scale up deployments of solar, wind and hydropower”, but that US trade restrictions increase the cost of clean energy overseas and slow the energy transition, added the outlet. State news agency Xinhua quoted Liu saying at the same event that “humanity’s response to climate change depends on the development of technology” and that developed nations must help meet the financing needs of developing nations.
‘GREEN’ ECONOMY: Zhao Leji, chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s legislative body, also spoke at Boao. He stated that “[China is] speeding up efforts to promote green and low-carbon economic and social development” and will “strive” to meet its dual carbon goals, according to the Associated Press. CGTN published the full text of Zhao’s speech, in which he also said the country will “cultivate large-scale new growth drivers in green infrastructure, green energy, green transportation and green lifestyle, which is expected to generate investment and consumption markets with a size of 10tn yuan ($1.4tn) every year”. Other notable speakers, the South China Morning Post said, included former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan and former deputy trade minister Long Yongtu, who both argued that overcapacity in the “clean-energy sector” will be temporary, as long as global demand for energy transition technologies remains robust.
Spotlight
How climate change could reduce China’s GDP growth
A new study by a group of Chinese scientists, published in Nature, finds that China could significantly constrain future economic growth, due to the impact of climate change on global supply chains.
Carbon Brief invites the paper’s lead authors Prof Guan Dabo and doctoral candidate Sun Yida from Tsinghua University to outline their main findings of the potential impacts of global warming on China’s manufacturing capabilities and economic growth.
In recent years, global supply chains have faced a global pandemic, commercial ships under attack in the Red Sea and a container ship getting wedged in the Suez Canal for six days. The impact of each of these events has rippled across the global economy.
In our new research, published in Nature, we show that climate change poses a similar threat to supply chains around the world, bringing economic losses that will increase exponentially relative to the rise in global temperatures.
Focusing on heat extremes, our research team constructed a “disaster footprint” model to assess the health risks and economic losses associated with heatwaves.
To estimate the impact of extreme heat on global GDP, our model combines projections of future climate, simulations of future population dynamics in response to warming and estimates of heat-induced labour loss on the global economy and supply chains.
Our study is the first to chart “indirect economic losses” from climate change on global supply chains, underscoring the risk to regions that will likely be less affected by warming directly.
The results suggest that, by 2060, China could suffer soaring economic losses amounting to 1.5-4.8% of GDP growth by 2060. Some of its industries, including construction and manufacturing, could lose around 4.6-6.4% of their value.
How could indirect disruptions affect economic growth?
While the direct mortality and productivity loss resulting from heat stress have been extensively studied, previous analysis has yet to account for indirect economic loss.
Indirect economic loss is the reduction in economic output or welfare due to disruptions caused by feedback loops after a shock to the economic system, rather than by a direct impact from a shock. These losses could be due to changes in production, consumption or employment.
For example, crop failures, labour slowdowns and other economic disruptions in one part of the world can affect the supply of raw materials flowing elsewhere. This can cause production stagnation where trading partners cannot access the supplies they need.
These indirect disruptions could cause a projected net economic loss of $3.75-$24.7tn globally by 2060, depending on how quickly climate change is tackled.
We estimate expected economic losses across three scenarios, called “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSPs), broadly covering futures under very low, intermediate and very high emissions.
The charts below illustrate the potential economic losses as a percentage of GDP China may face under the SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which project an average global temperature rise of around 1.5C, 2C and 2.5C by mid-century, respectively. Economic losses are split into indirect losses (dark blue), labour losses (blue) and health losses (light blue).
What is the impact on China?
As the global economy has grown more interconnected, disruptions in one part of the world have knock-on effects elsewhere in the world.
For example, as a manufacturing-heavy country, China faces indirect economic losses of up to 2.7% of total GDP in 2060.
Overall, indirect losses were the most significant component of China’s economic losses, accounting for just over half of total losses.
By 2060 China’s heat-induced economic losses could total about 1.5% of total GDP under 1.5C of global warming, 3% under 2C of warming and 4.9% under 2.5C of warming.
Sectors such as the extractive industries, construction and non-metallic manufacturing – which are some of China’s “key industrial sectors” – could see the highest losses.
These industries are not only located in regions with significant warming, but also import large quantities of upstream primary products from south-east Asia, Africa and South America – regions which are expected to face heightened exposure to production volatility caused by high temperatures.
They are projected to lose about 4.6-6.4% of their “value-added” under the compounded impacts of direct production reductions and indirect spillover shocks.
In addition, under the lowest emissions scenario, 2060 could see an additional 590,000 heatwave deaths annually across the globe, rising to 1.12m additional annual heatwave deaths under the highest scenario. This human toll entails economic costs as well, such as increased healthcare costs and production losses stemming from lost labour.
What next?
This research is an important reminder that preventing every additional degree of climate change is critical.
It should be noted that China’s recent investments in south-east Asia, the Middle East and Africa have shifted towards renewable energy and low-emission mining technology, rather than coal projects and large-scale infrastructure. This will contribute to building climate resilience and creating more stable global supply chains.
In addition, understanding which nations and industries are most vulnerable is crucial for devising effective and targeted adaptation strategies, including establishment and targeted use of the “loss-and-damage funds” agreed at COP27 in 2022.
Watch, read, listen
HUMAN COST: Environmental activist Wang Xiaojun gave a TED talk on his experience growing up in China’s top coal-producing province and the impact that environmental degradation had on his village and family.
SECURITY DILEMMA: The state broadcaster CCTV “exposed” a case of the illegal use of reserved farmland being converted into a solar power plant in Hubei.
FEATURE OR BUG?: An article in World Politics Review argues that excess capacity is a “tolerated feature” of China’s industrial system because it allows China to meet high-level targets, while “local governments clean up the mess [of] bankrupt firms or laid-off workers”.
LITHIUM’S FUTURE: A podcast by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies discussed the possible path of the lithium market as it matures and grapples with China’s dominance of lithium processing.
575
In gigawatts, the estimated heat pump capacity for buildings (residential and commercial) in China by 2030 under the stated policies scenario (STEPS), according to a report by the International Energy Agency on the future of heat pumps in China.
New science
End-year China wind power installation rush reduces electric system reliability
Energy Economics
Research identified “significant adverse effects” of the rapid installation of wind power on electricity reliability. It found that a faster rate of installation led to lower reliability rates and more power outages. The authors raised the importance of “improvements in grid infrastructure and management in the transition to a low-carbon world”.
Managing fragmented croplands for environmental and economic benefits in China
Nature Food
A new study found that improving the management of croplands could “achieve synergies between food security, economic benefits and environmental protection” without needing to use more land. It revealed that “10% of Chinese croplands have no potential to be consolidated for large-scale farming” and, if the land was instead used to grow animal feed, nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions could drop by 10% and 101%, respectively.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 4 April: Heat-driven impact on economy; Coal capacity ‘pushed down’; China’s WTO complaint appeared first on Carbon Brief.
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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