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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
New export controls
‘SWEEPING’ CURBS: The Chinese government issued “sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies”, the Financial Times reported, with the set of new rules tightening restrictions on exports of rare earths, permanent magnets and batteries and battery components, as well as related processing technologies. Manufacturers will need licences to export any of these products that contain “even trace amounts” of China-sourced materials, it added. The move “underscores how rare earths – vital to high-performance magnets, electric vehicles [EVs], wind turbines and precision weaponry – have become a powerful geopolitical tool”, finance news outlet Caixin reported.
BATTERY BLOCKAGES?: The restrictions on batteries with an energy density higher than 300 watt-hours per kilogram, as well as a variety of battery components, “show China is keen to protect its innovations” and complicate efforts to diversify supply chains, Bloomberg reported. Caixin cited multiple analysts saying the battery threshold “primarily targets high-end nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries used in aviation and defense, rather than lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries common in mass-market EVs”, noting that the “controls focus on ‘next-generation’ batteries [such as solid-state batteries]”. But Cory Combs, associate director at consultancy Trivium China, told Carbon Brief that the controls are cause for “concern”, as they “target nearly all the key components, production tools and associated tech” that newer consumer electronics, including EVs, are expected to be using. There are “open questions” on how this could affect Chinese battery manufacturers’ overseas investments and partnerships, he said, although he expected “Beijing will continue to strongly encourage battery exports and overseas investments in general”.
OPEN QUESTIONS: The restrictions give China leverage in the US-China trade dispute “ahead of a scheduled face-to-face meeting” between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the end of October, Reuters said. In response to the restrictions, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent “accused China of trying to hurt the world’s economy”, the Financial Times reported, adding that in contrast, “China has blamed Washington for the escalation”. Economic news outlet Jiemian said that Europe may also be affected by the curbs, as its EV industry has “high demand for premium rare earth grades” – although it added that “specific impacts” may only become visible by early 2026. Combs told Carbon Brief that he does not think China has a “strategic interest in cutting off EU or Asian companies” from clean-energy technologies, given that it already has a competitive advantage in their manufacture. He added that the move could lead to “frictions and delays”, but “shouldn’t affect the broader EV or [wind] turbine industries too much”.
IEA revised China renewables outlook down
REFORM REVISIONS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its outlook for China’s wind and solar buildout down by about 5% in its Renewables 2025 report, which the agency attributed to the country’s “shift from fixed tariffs [for wind and solar power] to competitive auctions”, Reuters said. Energy news outlet International Energy Net also covered the report, which “notes that…the financial sustainability of [wind and solar] manufacturers remains a major concern”.
EARLY ACHIEVEMENT: Jeremy Wallace, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote on LinkedIn that, despite the 5% revision, the IEA’s “main case estimate [for China] has about 2,100 gigawatts (GW) of renewables added from 2026-2030”, which would put the country “way ahead” of its new target for 3,600GW of wind and solar by 2035. Indeed, the IEA report said that China “continues to account for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach [its 2035 target for renewable energy] five years ahead of schedule”.
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RECORD EXPORTS: Meanwhile, thinktank Ember released a report finding that China’s exports of clean-energy technology “hit a record in August, with $20bn in products shipped globally”, Bloomberg reported. Al Jazeera quoted the report saying: “Within China there is a realisation that the old development paradigm centred on fossil fuels has run its course and is not fit for 21st century realities.” State broadcaster CGTN said the findings “confirm China’s role as the primary driver of the transition” towards clean energy.
China issued draft expanding renewable quotas
BEYOND POWER: Energy news outlet BJX News reported that the Chinese government has published new draft rules to expand China’s renewable portfolio standard (RPS) – provincial quotas for consuming renewable electricity – to also cover energy demand outside the power sector. It said the draft rules divide the RPS targets into two categories: minimum renewable electricity consumption targets, covering “all types of renewable power generation”; and minimum non-electricity consumption targets, including “renewable energy applications such as heating and cooling, production of ‘green’ hydrogen, ammonia and alcohol, as well as biofuels”. The move comes as China’s RPS grows from covering power and aluminium to also include the cement, polysilicon and iron and steel sectors, as well as certain types of data centres.
FINANCE PLANS: China also plans to refine how it invests in “energy conservation and carbon reduction”, BJX News said, to better integrate “hard investments” with “soft infrastructure development”. Another BJX News report elaborated that supported projects under this programme include low-carbon projects in sectors such as power, steel, chemicals and building materials. It added that “clean coal” and coal-chemical projects, clean-energy alternatives for “coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns” and “geothermal and biomass” clean heating solutions, would also receive support.
Carbon prices hit a two-year low
CREDIT OVERSUPPLY: Carbon prices in China’s national carbon market reached the “lowest level in more than two years as the nation’s carryover rules triggered a sell-off”, with prices hitting a low of 58.8 yuan ($8.25), according to Bloomberg. It added that “prices are down almost 40% since the start of the year, weighed by a persistent oversupply and lagging demand”.
EV PRESSURES: Meanwhile, EV sales in China “hit an all-time high” in September, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), with a rush in purchases ahead of the expiration of EV tax breaks and consumer subsidies. A total of 826,000 EVs were sold last month, it said, up 29% from the previous year and breaking the previous record set in December 2024. State news agency Xinhua reported that sales of “new-energy vehicles”, a category including EVs, rose 35% year-on-year to 11m from January to September 2025. Bloomberg quoted CPCA secretary general Cui Dongshu saying that car dealerships urgently need financial assistance as overcapacity and intense competition pushes them to “operat[e] at cash flow negative”. Meanwhile, China plans to double EV charging capacity by 2027, “building 28m facilities nationwide”, another SCMP article said.
OVERCAPACITY ORDERS: Finally, the government has announced new measures on governing “disorderly price competition”, BJX News reported, including guiding industry associations to suggest reference costs to help “operators to set reasonable prices” and penalising companies it identifies as repeatedly violating orders. Reuters said that a state-run financial news outlet “reported…relevant authorities may release a notice on strengthening the regulation and control of solar production capacity”, adding that the article in question “did not contain further details”.
Spotlight
Only half of Chinese provinces finalise key ‘Document 136’ renewable rules
Only half of China’s provinces have finalised new rules for pricing wind and solar power, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Local governments are required to have published final plans to reform the way wind and solar power is priced in their jurisdiction before the end of this year, following the release of “Document 136” (136号文).
Carbon Brief examines China’s progress on developing the new rules. The full article, including an interactive tracker of which provinces have released their plans, is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
Central direction, local rules
In February this year, China’s central government issued a notice on “deepening market-based reform of feed-in tariffs for new energy”, also known as “Document 136”.
The document called on local governments to develop plans for new pricing mechanisms for wind and solar power. A key feature of this will be the “sustainable new-energy pricing mechanism” (新能源可持续发展价格结算机制), in which they only offer a fixed price to a set amount of new wind and solar capacity each year.
Any additional wind and solar projects would need to find buyers for their electricity on the open market.
The move is part of wider efforts to shift China’s giant electricity system towards more market-based operation.
When the policy was first released, analysts expected the rules and subsequent low auction prices to have a chilling effect on wind and solar in the short term.
But some believe that “Document 136” may strengthen China’s clean-energy industries in the long term, by forcing companies to become more innovative and competitive.
New territory
So far, Carbon Brief finds, only 18 provinces have issued finalised plans. Collectively, these provinces account for 61% of China’s energy-related emissions.
Another 10, representing 31% of emissions, have published draft plans, while Jiangsu, Tianjin and Tibet – the final 8% – have yet to publish anything.
A few provinces published finalised rules in early June, including renewable-power heavyweights Shandong and Inner Mongolia.
In a nationwide conference call at the end of August, National Energy Administration officials urged provinces to “promptly promote” concrete plans.
Eleven provinces have published finalised rules since then, with a further eight publishing draft rules, according to Carbon Brief calculations.
The delay can be attributed to the fact that local policymakers are trying to establish a completely new system of pricing power from scratch, said David Fishman, principal at energy consultancy the Lantau Group.
He told Carbon Brief that “fairly meaningful differences” can be found between the final version and earlier drafts for some provinces, indicating a high level of debate.
In September, Shandong province became the first to hold auctions for solar and wind power under the new rules.
While prices secured by the wind industry are seen as high enough to be relatively acceptable to project developers, the solar price is below the level thought to be needed to finance such developments. As such, it could “discourage” further solar investment in the province, Reuters reported.
Future additions
Analysts disagree about what impact the “Document 136” policy will have on the pace of China’s clean-energy additions.
Dr Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, told Carbon Brief that he does not see the pricing reforms as a “signal of a structural slowdown in clean capacity [additions]”.
But Fishman noted that the pricing reforms could make it “challenging” for China to hit Xi’s new 2035 target.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) shaved 5% – or 129 gigawatts (GW) – off its outlook for China’s wind and solar growth by 2030, which it attributed to the pricing reforms.
Nevertheless, it added, China is still projected to add “nearly 2,660GW” of new renewable capacity between 2025 and 2030, reaching its 2035 wind and solar target “five years ahead of schedule”.
Watch, read, listen
AFRICAN ENERGY: The China Global South Project hosted a discussion on China’s role in shaping Africa’s energy landscape and how African governments are responding.
GENDER LENS: The Climate Watch podcast spoke with Wang Binbin, associate research professor at Peking University’s Institute for Carbon Neutrality, on intersections between climate action and gender in China.
LEADING TOGETHER?: Economic policy thinktank Bruegel published an analysis arguing that broader EU-China tensions “should not be allowed to derail joint work to cut emissions”.
ARCTIC SHIPPING: CNN examined how melting polar sea ice is “altering the map” in a way that could bring “big economic and geopolitical rewards” for China’s plans to establish shipping routes through the Arctic.
218 billion yuan
Or $30.5bn, the value of economic losses caused by “natural disasters” in the first three quarters of 2025, Jiemian reported, in coverage of a press conference by the Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM). These disasters, which included “intense” rainfall, heat and typhoons, caused 742 people to be reported dead or missing, it added. Climate change was not mentioned during the press conference.
New science
Future warming exacerbates heatwave-ozone compound extremes in China
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Human exposure due to “heatwave-ozone compound events” will double across by the middle of the century under “high-emissions scenario”, causing an additional 61,600 deaths nationwide, according to new research. The authors used climate models to estimate excess deaths due to heatwave-ozone compound extremes from climate change under a range of future emissions scenarios. They projected that the number of ozone pollution events in China will grow by 58% by the middle of the century, “half of which are also heatwave days”.
Nature Communications
A new study on electric vehicle charging stations found that, without policy regulation, “large-scale deployment of ultra-fast charging stations with energy storage could raise peak loads by over 70-85% by 2030 and multiply them by up to 7.5 times by 2050”. The authors used real-world charging data from a number of Chinese cities to develop simulations of various scenarios. They found that “deploying 2,000 ultra-fast charging stations in a city may increase the peak-to-valley differences of the public charging load by up to 32% daily relative to baseline cases”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 16 October 2025: New export controls; IEA China projections; Provincial ‘Doc 136’ progress appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes
Greenhouse Gases
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