Published

2 years ago

July 11, 2024

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

‘Wartime’ floods swamped southern China

‘WARTIME’ EMERGENCY: Extreme weather events continued over the past two weeks. Dongting lake – China’s second-biggest freshwater lake – in southern China’s Hunan province experienced a wide “dyke breach” on 6 July, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. The newspaper found the flooding in Hunan was “the most severe flooding seen in 70 years”, with local authorities declaring a “wartime” emergency. State-run newspaper China Daily said the water level on one Hunan river, at 77.63m, was “the highest water level recorded since 1954”. In central China, Henan province, which had experienced a “one-in-a-thousand-year” rainstorm in 2021, also issued a flood warning, reported the Paper, a state-supported outlet. Another central province, Anhui, evacuated 195,000 people whose lives were affected by heavy rainfall, said state news agency Xinhua.

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RESCUE FUNDING: Chinese premier Li Qiang called for “unswerving efforts” on flood control and disaster relief, reported Xinhua. Some 540m yuan ($74m) of funds were issued by the central government to “help local authorities search, rescue and relocate disaster victims”, reported financial media Caixin. An additional 200m yuan ($27.5m) was provided to help flood rescue efforts in Hunan and Jiangxi, reported Science and Technology Daily. (See Carbon Brief’s recent Q&A for more on flooding in China.)

CLIMATE CHANGE: China’s weather agency forecasted that “extreme heat [will] persist across the country” over the summer as “climate change pushes global temperatures higher”, Agence France-Presse reported, citing state broadcaster CCTV. The Economist said that, as a result of climate change, China is likely to “increasingly experience periods of heavier rainfall, as well as longer periods of dryness”, according to World Weather Attribution. Xinhua reported that provinces in southern China are expecting high temperatures ranging from 35-40C in the coming days.

EU moved ahead with provisional tariffs on Chinese EVs

PROVISIONAL TARIFFS: The EU’s provisional duties on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) came into force on 4 July, despite Beijing calling on Brussels last month to “scrap” them, Bloomberg reported. The tariff rate was set between 20-48% for individual automakers – with companies that cooperated in initial investigations receiving a lower rate, added the newspaper. EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said “we can also find ways not to apply [the tariffs] at the end of the day” since the negotiations with China were still ongoing, “but it is very clear this solution [would] need to solve that market distortion that we are currently having”, according to Reuters. It noted that definitive duties are due by November.

BEIJING’S RESPONSE: The Chinese commerce ministry and foreign ministry both opposed the EU duties. Meanwhile, China announced a probe into EU brandy imports, reported Reuters. This is the second EU product, after pork, that China has investigated as a countermeasure. Xinhua quoted data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and said the export of “new energy” vehicles (NEVs) in June reached 80,000, up 12.3% year-on-year. However, the CPCA told Reuters that the June number was actually 20-30 percentage points lower than expected growth due to the EU tariffs. The newswire quoted the association saying: “Our (NEV export) growth used to be at least 30-40%, and it has slowed to only more than 10%, meaning (the tariffs) had a 20-30 percentage point impact on (NEV export growth), a conspicuous short-term impact.” Chinese manufacturer Neta Auto viewed the EU tariffs as a “temporary setback” that would incentivise Chinese companies to explore other overseas markets, such as in Africa, according to the SCMP.

OTHER COUNTRIES: Following similar moves by the EU and US, Canada was also considering raising tariffs and blocking Chinese investments, with an intention to “deter Chinese-made electric vehicles from accessing the Canadian market”, said Bloomberg. ASEAN members, such as Thailand and Indonesia, also expressed “concerns about the negative effects of massive Chinese imports”, reported the SCMP, but no measures have been announced so far. Meanwhile, leading Chinese EV maker BYD announced plans to build a factory in Turkey, BBC News reported, noting that, as Turkey is part of the EU Customs Union, it will be able to bypass EU tariffs. The announcement came after the Turkish government had also announced tariffs on Chinese EVs, as reported in the 13 June edition of China Briefing.

China published draft carbon market rules

EMISSIONS ALLOWANCES: China has published draft rules aiming to “reduc[e] an oversupply of permits” in its national carbon market, Bloomberg reported. Participants would no longer be able to borrow allowances from “future years” and the rules on “carrying over unused permits from previous years” would become stricter, if the draft rules are enacted, added the outlet. Yan Qin, lead carbon analyst at London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), was quoted by the news outlet saying “the confirmation of supply tightening will send a strong signal to the market participants”.

CLOSING LOOPHOLES: The market has seen “companies hoarding carbon permits in anticipation of tightening allocations, leading to very low liquidity in the carbon market”, financial media outlet Caixin said. The business newspaper added that strict penalties in the interim carbon market rules issued in January encouraged traders to “stor[e] their quotas for the future, rather than selling [them]”, adding that “previous expectations of tighter quota allocations for emissions-controlled companies have heightened the perceived value” of allowances, it added. The draft rules, according to an anonymous source interviewed by Caixin, “means that the quotas previously hoarded by emissions-controlled companies and not traded will lose their value after a set period, potentially releasing more supply”.

Spotlight

Analysis: China’s clean energy pushes coal to record-low 53% share of power in May 2024

Last November, Carbon Brief published analysis suggesting that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions might have peaked, with this being reinforced by analysis published in May.

In this issue, Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, offers further support for his earlier analysis, using recently released data to show that clean energy pushed coal to a record-low 53% of China’s electricity mix in May 2024.

This analysis is published in full on the Carbon Brief website.

Why official data on electricity generation is increasingly limited

Every month, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes data on China’s electricity generation by technology. The figures for May 2024 came out nearly a month ago, in mid-June, and were widely reported at the time.

However, this data is now increasingly limited because it excludes, among other things, “distributed” solar sites, such as those on the roofs of homes and businesses. Analysis for this article shows this misses out about half of the electricity generated by solar overall.

There is now enough data to work around the limitations in the NBS power generation data and give a complete picture of China’s power generation mix in May.

What a complete set of generation data revealed

Putting the various figures together showed that, far from the modest 29% year-on-year increase in the incomplete NBS data, there was a record 78% rise in solar electricity generation in May 2024.

Installed solar capacity increased by 52% to 691 gigawatts (GW) and capacity utilisation improved from 16% to 19%. This delivered the largest increase in China’s electricity generation for any technology, with solar generation rising 41TWh from 53TWh in May 2023 to 94TWh in May 2024.

The second-largest increase was from hydropower, where capacity only increased 1%, but utilisation jumped from 31% to 41%, as the sector recovers from the record drought seen in 2022-23. This led to a 39% or 34TWh increase in power generation, which hit 115TWh.

Wind power saw a strong increase in capacity of 21%. Utilisation fell, however, likely due to month-to-month variations in wind conditions. As a result, power generation grew by a relatively modest 5%, or 4TWh, reaching 83TWh.

Nuclear and biomass-fired power generation also saw small increases in capacity, but the utilisation of nuclear plants fell from 87% to 85%.

How surging clean energy pushed fossil fuels into reverse

In total, clean power generation grew 78TWh in May 2024, which was more than enough to exceed the 49TWh increase in electricity demand.

As a result, gas-fired generation plummeted by 16%, despite a 9% increase in capacity, driving a steep 24% drop in utilisation. Coal-fired generation capacity increased by 3% while power generation from coal fell 3.7%, resulting in average plant utilisation falling by 7%. Falling demand could temper investment in new coal capacity, which has run hot in the past two years.

The changes in coal and gas-fired generation, combined with a slight degradation in the thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants, imply a 3.6% drop in CO2 emissions from the power sector.

Why the clean power surge meant a record-low share for coal

After these changes in output, China’s power generation mix shifted significantly away from fossil fuels in May 2024. The share of coal-fired generation fell to 53%, down from 60% at the same time last year and the lowest share on record, as shown in the figure below.

Meanwhile, solar rose to 12%, up from 7% a year earlier and the highest on record. The remainder was made up of wind (11%), hydropower (15%), nuclear (5%), gas (3%) and biomass (2%).

Share of China’s electricity generation, %, 2016-2024.

Meanwhile, strong clean-energy capacity growth continued in May 2024, with 19 gigawatt (GW) of solar being added, 3GW of wind and 1.2GW of nuclear.

In the first five months of 2024, China has added some 79GW of solar and 20GW of wind. These additions are up 29% and 21% respectively from last year’s numbers, which were already record-breaking.

What the power sector shift means for China’s CO2

The rapid growth in generation from solar shows that the solar capacity boom is delivering new electricity supplies at a scale sufficient to cover much of China’s demand growth.

This reinforces the view that China’s CO2 emissions are in a period of structural decline.

If clean energy additions are kept at the level reached in 2023 and early 2024, then CO2 output is likely to keep falling, confirming 2023 as the peak year for the country’s emissions.

However, with China due to announce new climate targets by early next year, the government’s level of ambition for clean energy growth remains an open question.

Watch, read, listen

GRID INVESTMENT: The Financial Times reported on surging investment in upgrading China’s electricity grid “to support green energy transition”, citing analysis finding “more than $800bn” would be spent by 2030.

FLOOD AND COMMUNIST: Chinese website 12371.cn – the official website for Chinese communist party members – carried a notice by the organisation department of the CPC Central Committee, calling on “communist party members at grassroot level” to play an “exemplary role” in “flood prevention and disaster relief”.

‘HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT’: The Chinese communist party’s Qiushi magazine published an “interpretation” of the “philosophy” behind “high quality development”, a concept widely circulated in Chinese policy documents in recent years.

POWER REFORM: Caixin published an explainer breaking down reasons behind the need for a “green power system” in China, as well as how that new system could operate.

339

The total amount of utility-scale solar and wind, in gigawatts (GW), under construction in China as of June 2024, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM). The number, comprising 180GW of solar and 159GW of wind, is nearly twice as much as the rest of the world combined, according to GEM’s latest updates.

New science

Diversifying heat sources in China’s urban district heating systems will reduce risk of carbon lock-in
Nature Energy

A new study found the share of non-fossil sources in China’s urban district heating systems remained low, but “new coal-fired combined heat and power plants” continued to be built in the past few years. It said replacing “polluting coal” with “new and improved coal-fired combined heat and power plants” will help to reduce emissions; expanding the use of “industrial waste heat and air/ground-source heat pumps” could also help decarbonisation. The paper concluded that “strategic choices for district heating technologies are necessary for China” to reach its “dual carbon goals”.

Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China’s livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost
Nature Food

Methane emissions from livestock in China are projected to rise 13% by 2030, but there is the “technical potential” to cut them by 36%, a new study suggested. Using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys, the researchers created a high-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock methane emissions over 1990-2020. The most effective methane mitigation measures would be “increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage” used for manure, the authors said. At carbon prices below $100 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, this would be “more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China”, the study added.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 11 July: ‘Wartime’ flooding emergency; EU tariff impact; Record-low coal share appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 11 July: ‘Wartime’ flooding emergency; EU tariff impact; Record-low coal share

Climate Change

China maximises battery recycling to shore up critical mineral supplies

Published

8 hours ago

February 9, 2026

Alice Rush

Even the busiest streets of Shanghai have become noticeably quieter as sales of electric vehicles (EVs) skyrocketed in China, with charging points mushrooming in residential compounds, car parks and service stations across the megacity.

Many Chinese drivers have upgraded their conventional vehicles to electric ones – or already replaced old EVs with newer models – incentivised by the government’s generous trade-in policies, or tempted by the latest hi-tech features such as controls powered by artificial intelligence (AI).

“Different from conventional cars, EVs are more like fast-moving consumer goods, like smartphones,” explained Mo Ke, founder and chief analyst of Tianjin-based battery-research firm, RealLi Research. Their digital systems can become outdated quickly, so Chinese people typically change their EVs after five or six years while a conventional car can be driven much longer, he told Climate Home News.

EV sales surpassed 16 million in China last year. Roughly 10% of all vehicles on the road were electric, and half of all new vehicles sold carried a green EV number plate, with an average of 45,000 EVs rolling off the production lines each day.

But while fast-growing EV uptake is good news for Chinese EV and battery manufacturers, it is creating a huge volume of spent batteries.

Tsunami of spent batteries

Last year, China generated nearly 400,000 tonnes of old or damaged power batteries, largely consisting of vehicle batteries, according to government data. That is projected to rise to one million tonnes per year in 2030, officials forecast.

The growing waste problem has spurred the government to launch a series of new policies aimed at regulating the country’s battery recycling industry, which though well-established is marked by a high degree of informality – especially in the lucrative repurposing sector where discarded EV batteries are given a new lease of life in less energy-intensive uses, such as power storage.

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China is determined to build a “standardised, safe and efficient” recycling system for batteries, Wang Peng, a director at China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told a press conference as the government launched a recycling industry push in mid-January.

A policy p a per published by the government last month detailed Beijing’s plans to mandate end-of-life recycling for EVs together with their batteries to prevent them from entering the grey, informal market, and establish a digital system to track the lifecycle of every battery manufactured in the country. Under the plans, EV and battery makers will be held responsible for recycling the batteries they produce and sell.

“The volume of the Chinese market is too big, so it has to take actions ahead of other countries,” Mo said, adding that he expected the government to release more details about implementation of the plans in the near future.

Critical minerals choke point

China’s strategy for the battery recycling sector could also prove a boon for the world’s largest battery producer by bolstering its supply of minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese.

Along with the looming large-scale battery retirement, policymakers’ focus on battery recycling also reflects concern about critical minerals supplies, said Li Yifei, assistant professor of environmental studies at New York University Shanghai. “The government also felt the increasing pressure of securing resources,” he told Climate Home News.

“When you set up an efficient battery-recycling system, you essentially secure a new source for critical minerals, and that can help you enhance economic security. That’s why the industry is so important,” Lin Xiao, chief executive of Botree Recycling Technologies, a Chinese company offering battery-recycling solutions, told Climate Home News.

Cobalt and nickel-free electric car batteries boom in “good news” for rainforests

China dominates global refining of several minerals critical for producing EV batteries, but it still relies on imports of the raw materials – a choke point Beijing is acutely aware of, industry experts say.

China imports more than 90% of its cobalt, nickel and manganese, which are important ingredients for EV batteries, Hu Song, a senior researcher with the state-run China Automotive Technology and Research Centre, told China’s CCTV state broadcaster in June 2025. For lithium, the figure was around 60% in 2024, according to a separate report.

“If [those] resources cannot be recycled, then we will keep facing strangleholds in the future,” Hu said.

Big players gain ground

Spent EV batteries can be reused in settings that have lower energy requirements, such as in two-wheelers or energy-storage systems. When they become too depleted for repurposing, they can be scrapped and shredded into “black mass”, a powdery mixture containing valuable metals that can be recovered.

Reflecting the size of China’s EV market, the country already dominates global battery recycling capacity. It is home to 78% of the world’s battery pre-treatment capacity, which is for scrapping and shredding, and 89% of the capacity for refining black mass, according to 2025 forecasts by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a UK firm tracking battery supply chains.

A number of large corporate players have emerged in the sector in recent years.

Huayou Cobalt, a major producer of battery minerals, has built a business model for recycling, repurposing and shredding old batteries, as well as refining black mass and making new batteries using recovered materials.

It recently signed a deal with Encory, a joint venture between BMW and Berlin-based environmental service provider Interzero, to develop cutting-edge battery-recycling technologies, with their first joint factory set to open in China this year.

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Suzhou-based Botree Recycling Technologies has developed various solutions to turn retired power batteries into new ones. Meanwhile, Brunp Recycling, the recycling arm of Chinese battery giant CATL, has built large factories to recycle lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a type of lithium battery that does not use nickel or cobalt, as well as nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries, which are more popular outside of China.

But Mo, of RealLi Research, said much remains to be done to regulate and formalise the battery recycling industry.

Underground workshops

Across China, small underground workshops plague the repurposing sector, rebundling depleted batteries for sale without following industry standards or complying with health and safety requirements.

Because these operators have lower operational costs, they are able to offer higher prices to EV owners to buy their old batteries, undercutting formal recycling companies.

“This creates distortions in the market where legitimate players, who invest in proper detection, hazardous waste treatment and compliance, struggle to compete purely on price,” a spokesperson at CATL, the world’s largest battery manufacturer, told Climate Home News.

Despite such challenges, CATL’s Brunp subsidiary produced 17,100 tonnes of lithium in 2024 from the 128,700 tonnes of depleted batteries it recycled that year, according to CATL’s annual report.

Recycling expertise in demand

Since it was founded in 2019, Botree has formed partnerships with several major clients, which together recycle about half of China’s power batteries, the company’s CEO Lin said.

As other countries grapple with rising volumes of spent batteries, Chinese recyclers are also finding new foreign markets for their know-how.

Botree has joined forces with Spanish consulting firm ILUNION and renewable energy company EFT-Systems to build a factory to recycle LFP batteries in Valladolid.

The plant, scheduled to start operation in 2027, will be able to recycle 6,000 tonnes of LFPs annually when it opens, accounting for roughly 15% of demand in the Spanish market.

“(The companies) tell us what batteries they recycle and what battery materials they want to regenerate,” Lin said. “We can design a complete process for them.”

The post China maximises battery recycling to shore up critical mineral supplies appeared first on Climate Home News.

China maximises battery recycling to shore up critical mineral supplies

Climate Change

A Groundbreaking Geothermal Heating and Cooling Network Saves This Colorado College Money and Water

Published

9 hours ago

February 9, 2026

Alice Rush

When a former oil and gas developer partnered with Colorado Mesa University on geothermal, the school saved millions and set a new standard for energy-efficient buildings.

By Phil McKenna

GRAND JUNCTION, Colo.—The discussions started roughly a decade ago, when an account manager at Xcel Energy, the electricity and gas utility provider, expressed confusion, officials at Colorado Mesa University recalled.

A Groundbreaking Geothermal Heating and Cooling Network Saves This Colorado College Money and Water

Climate Change

Georgia Power Gas Expansion Would Drive Significant Climate-Damaging Pollution

Published

11 hours ago

February 9, 2026

Alice Rush

The expansion could add millions of tons of carbon pollution annually while polluting the air near vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

By Ryan Krugman

Georgia regulators have approved a massive expansion of natural gas power plants that could dramatically increase the state’s climate pollution, largely to support the rapid growth of data centers.