A new analysis of jurisdictional REDD+ (JREDD+) in Brazil’s Amazon reveals a big chance. The potential credit sales could reach $10–$20 billion this decade. However, the market faces delays, integrity issues, and a drop in voluntary demand.
The report from the Earth Innovation Institute (EII) outlines the numbers and assumptions. It also offers a roadmap connecting carbon credit sales to real forest results and social safeguards.
The $20B Amazon Question: EII’s JREDD+ Forecast
The Amazon remains a vital carbon reservoir, holding approximately 56.8 billion metric tons of carbon above ground. Brazil alone contains over 32 billion metric tons of this total. This carbon stock equates to more than one and a half times global annual CO₂ emissions in 2023.
EII’s Amazon Forest Climate Solution (AFCS) expects Amazon emissions from deforestation, fire, and logging to drop by 90% by 2030 from a 2018–2022 baseline. Then, they aim for a 95% reduction by 2040 and a 98% cut by 2050.

Brazil’s Amazon states could issue around 1.05 billion TREES standard credits. This would be for reductions achieved from 2023 to 2030. At $10–$20 per credit, that equals $10–$20 billion in potential revenue.

Timing matters. EII notes it typically takes two to three years to verify, issue, and sell credits. The four most advanced states—Acre, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins—might sell around 100 million credits in 2026. This could bring in about $1 billion at $10 per ton. That figure is roughly comparable to the $1.4 billion donated to the Amazon Fund since 2008.
A state-by-state table shows around 1,048.8 MtCO₂e in potential credits by 2030. This could bring in about $10.49 billion at $10 per ton. Pará leads with 348.5 Mt and $3.49 billion, followed by Mato Grosso with 200.1 Mt and $2.00 billion.

Why Billions Haven’t Flowed Yet
Analysts underscore the gap between early promises and actual transactions, while the EII report highlights these bottlenecks:
- No Brazilian state issued credits by June 2025.
- Only Pará and Tocantins signed forward Emissions Reduction Purchase Agreements (ERPAs).
- Acre and Mato Grosso are advancing through pay-for-performance (non-credit) mechanisms.
Meanwhile, the voluntary carbon market retrenched in 2023–2024. Global transactions fell to about 84 MtCO₂e from a 516 MtCO₂e peak in 2021, and forest/land-use project volumes slid from about 227 MtCO₂e to about 37 MtCO₂e. This slump undermines demand just as Brazilian states prepare to sell large volumes.

Put simply, the supply pipeline is maturing faster than demand. Integrity controversies around some project-level REDD+ credits have cooled buyers’ risk appetite.
EII argues that jurisdictional programs, using conservative baselines and including leakage deductions, can tackle many concerns. They also have social safeguards under the TREES standard. However, these programs still need clear policies and buyer confidence to turn modeled volumes into cash.
What Makes JREDD+ More Credible than Old REDD+?
EII emphasizes that JREDD+ credits reward performance at the state or national scale, not farm-by-farm activities. Also, participation is voluntary. The programs are created with Indigenous peoples, traditional communities, and farmers. They do not limit how landholders can use their land. Critically, project-level credits are subtracted from the jurisdictional pool to prevent double-counting.
Under TREES, crediting leaves out some removals, like those from fire-damaged forests. It also tightens baselines every five years. Moreover, there are significant deductions for leakage, uncertainty, and reversals. These choices underestimate climate benefits but aim to raise robustness.
These features are key to EII’s claim. They say JREDD+ can help finance quick emissions cuts now. Meanwhile, longer-term funds like the proposed “Tropical Forest Forever Fund” can grow.
Policy Shifts and Potential Buyers: From Petrobras to China
Converting potential into real revenue hinges on policy and demand signals:
- Domestic regulation:
Brazil’s federal government can explain how states can access Paris Agreement Article 6.2 transactions. This is for those who exceed the national NDC pathway. It could raise carbon prices and volumes for jurisdictional credits. - Corporate demand:
EII floats a COP 30 initiative where Petrobras convenes oil-and-gas peers to buy JREDD+ credits equal to about 1% of the sector’s Scope 3 emissions. This alone would multiply current forest and land-use demand on the voluntary carbon market tenfold. - Trade linkages:
A Brazil–China partnership on “forests, food, and climate” could link trade with local deforestation cuts. It might also direct credit purchases into state JREDD+ programs. Discussions are underway with Brazilian states.
EII believes these steps can shift the market from intent to action. They could also help bridge the multi-billion-dollar funding gaps in law enforcement, fire management, and regenerative land use.
What Success Would Mean for Climate — and the Amazon
The AFCS scenario suggests around 1.5 GtCO₂e in net reductions from 2025 to 2030. This is nearly double what the EU-27 is expected to achieve during that time. This relies on Brazil continuing to reduce deforestation and improving fire prevention and natural regeneration.
About 21% of the cleared land in the Amazon is marginal and turning back into forest. So, targeted incentives could boost natural regeneration at a lower cost than active restoration. This could also help stabilize regional rainfall.

EII connects climate benefits to public health and economic gains. This means fewer smoke-related illnesses and deaths. It also lowers risks for farm and forest investments. Plus, it creates new income streams for Indigenous peoples and smallholders. These include non-timber products, perennials, and aquaculture.
Still, EII’s main claim can be tested soon. If states set benefit-sharing rules, secure Article 6.2 eligibility, and finalize multi-buyer offtakes, then the first $1 billion in 2026 would prove that jurisdictional crediting works at scale.
Signals to Watch Before COP30
The report highlights COP30 in Belém, Brazil, as a pivotal moment for Amazon JREDD+. The country will host global climate negotiators in November 2025. This event will allow states to showcase their programs. They can also finalize pathways for Article 6.2 crediting.
EII believes COP30 can be used to reveal big corporate groups. This includes oil-and-gas or agribusiness buyers who commit to JREDD+ purchases. This event may determine whether modeled revenues of up to $20 billion move from projections to real contracts within the decade.
Some of the key market trends to watch are:
- State milestones: publication of final benefit-sharing frameworks and issuance of first TREES credits.
- Federal signals: Brazil’s alignment of Article 6.2 pathways for subnational programs.
- Buyer coalitions: oil-and-gas Scope 3 purchase commitments and commodity-trade linkages with China.
- Market breadth: whether jurisdictional credits revive voluntary carbon market volumes and pricing after the 2024 slump.
The EII report quantifies a plausible $10–$20 billion revenue pathway for Amazon JREDD+ this decade if governance, integrity, and buyer demand align. That level of financing could speed up Brazil’s forest-climate shift and provide social benefits. But this will only happen if policies and purchase commitments develop as quickly as expected.
The post Amazon’s $20B Carbon Credit Boom? Brazil’s REDD+ Faces Integrity and Demand Test appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Finding Nature Based Solutions in Your Supply Chain
Carbon Footprint
How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living
Americans are paying more for insurance, electricity, taxes, and home repairs every year. What many people may not realize is that climate change is already one of the drivers behind those rising costs.
For many households, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue. It is becoming a cost-of-living issue. While climate impacts like melting glaciers and shrinking polar ice can feel distant from everyday life, the financial effects are already showing up in monthly budgets across the country.
Today, a larger share of household income is consumed by fixed costs such as housing, insurance, utilities, and healthcare. (3) Climate change and climate inaction are adding pressure to many of those expenses through higher disaster recovery costs, rising energy demand, infrastructure repairs, and increased insurance risk.
The goal of this article is to help connect climate change to the everyday financial realities people already experience. Regardless of where someone stands on climate policy, it is important to recognize that climate change is already increasing costs for households, businesses, and taxpayers across the United States.
More conservative estimates indicate that the average household has experienced an increase of about $400 per year from observed climate change, while less conservative estimates suggest an increase of $900.(1) Those in more disaster-prone regions of the country face disproportionate costs, with some households experiencing climate-related costs averaging $1,300 per year.(1) Another study found that climate adaptation costs driven by climate change have already consumed over 3% of personal income in the U.S. since 2015.(9) By the end of the century, housing units could spend an additional $5,600 on adaptation costs.(1)
Whether we realize it or not, Americans are already paying for climate change through higher insurance premiums, energy costs, taxes, and infrastructure repairs. These growing expenses are often referred to as climate adaptation costs.
Without meaningful climate action, these costs are expected to continue rising. Choosing not to invest in climate action is also choosing to spend more on climate adaptation.
Here are a few ways climate change is already increasing the cost of living:
- Higher insurance costs from more frequent and severe storms
- Higher energy use during longer and hotter summers
- Higher electricity rates tied to storm recovery and grid upgrades
- Higher government spending and taxpayer-funded disaster recovery costs
The real debate is not whether climate change costs money. Americans are already paying for it. The question is where we want those costs to go. Should we invest more in climate action to help reduce future climate adaptation costs, or continue paying growing recovery and adaptation expenses in everyday life?
How Climate Change Is Increasing Insurance Costs
There is one industry that closely tracks the financial impact of natural disasters: insurance. Insurance companies are focused on assessing risk, estimating damages, and collecting enough revenue to cover losses and remain financially stable.
Comparing the 20-year periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, climate-related disasters increased 83% globally from 3,656 events to 6,681 events. The average time between billion-dollar disasters dropped from 82 days during the 1980s to 16 days during the last 10 years, and in 2025 the average time between disasters fell to just 10 days. (6)
According to the reinsurance firm Munich Re, total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average. Average annual inflation-adjusted costs more than quadrupled from $22.6 billion per year in the 1980s to $102 billion per year in the 2010s. Costs increased further to an average of $153.2 billion annually during 2020–2024, representing another 50% increase over the 2010s. (6)
In the United States, billion-dollar weather and climate disasters have also increased significantly. The average number of billion-dollar disasters per year has grown from roughly three annually during the 1980s to 19 annually over the last decade. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. recorded 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters respectively, both setting new records. (6)
The growing impact of climate change is one reason insurance costs continue to rise. “There are two things that drive insurance loss costs, which is the frequency of events and how much they cost,” said Robert Passmore, assistant vice president of personal lines at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “So, as these events become more frequent, that’s definitely going to have an impact.” (8)
After adjusting for inflation, insurance costs have steadily increased over time. From 2000 to 2020, insurance costs consistently grew faster than the Consumer Price Index due to rising rebuilding costs and weather-related losses.(3) Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the average home insurance premium increased from $75 to $360 due to climate change impacts, with disaster-prone regions experiencing especially steep increases.(1) Since 2015, homeowners in some regions affected by more extreme weather have seen home insurance costs increased by nearly 57%.(1) Some insurers have also limited or stopped offering coverage in high-risk areas.(7)
For many families, rising insurance costs are no longer occasional financial burdens. They are becoming recurring monthly expenses tied directly to growing climate risk.
How Rising Temperatures Increase Household Energy Costs

The financial impacts of climate change extend beyond insurance. Rising temperatures are also changing how much energy Americans use and how utilities plan for future electricity demand.
Between 1950 and 2010, per capita electricity use increased 10-fold, though usage has flattened or slightly declined since 2012 due to more efficient appliances and LED lighting. (3) A significant share of increased energy demand comes from cooling needs associated with higher temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the United States has experienced increasing Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreasing Heating Degree Days (HDD). Nearly all counties have become warmer over the past three decades, with some areas experiencing several hundred additional cooling degree days, equivalent to roughly one additional degree of warmth on most days. (1) This trend reflects a warming climate where air conditioning demand is increasing while heating demand generally declines. (4)
As temperatures continue rising, households are expected to spend more on cooling than they save on heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that by 2050, national Heating Degree Days will be 11% lower while Cooling Degree Days will be 28% higher than 2021 levels. Cooling demand is projected to rise 2.5 times faster than heating demand declines. (5)
These projections come from energy and infrastructure experts planning for future electricity demand and grid capacity needs. Utilities and grid operators are already preparing for higher peak summer electricity loads caused by rising temperatures. (5)
Longer and hotter summers also affect how homes and buildings are designed. Buildings constructed for past climate conditions may require upgrades such as larger air conditioning systems, stronger insulation, and improved ventilation to remain comfortable and energy efficient in the future. (10)
For many households, this means higher monthly utility bills and potentially higher long-term home improvement costs as temperatures continue to rise.
How Climate Change Affects Electricity Rates
On an inflation-adjusted basis, average U.S. residential electricity rates are slightly lower today than they were 50 years ago. (2) However, climate-related damage to utility infrastructure is creating new upward pressure on electricity costs.
Electric utilities rely heavily on above-ground poles, wires, transformers, and substations that can be damaged by hurricanes, storms, floods, and wildfires. Repairing and upgrading this infrastructure often requires substantial investment.
As a result, utilities are increasing electricity rates in response to wildfire and hurricane events to fund infrastructure repairs and future mitigation efforts. (1) The average cumulative increase in per-household electricity expenditures due to climate-related price changes is approximately $30. (1)
While this increase may appear modest today, utility costs are expected to rise further as climate-related infrastructure damage becomes more frequent and severe.
How Climate Disasters Increase Government Spending and Taxes
Extreme weather events also damage public infrastructure, including roads, schools, bridges, airports, water systems, and emergency services infrastructure. Recovery and rebuilding costs are often funded through taxpayer dollars at the federal, state, and local levels.
The average annual government cost tied to climate-related disaster recovery is estimated at nearly $142 per household. (1) States that frequently experience hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, or flooding can face even higher public recovery costs.
These expenses affect taxpayers whether they personally experience a disaster or not. Climate-related recovery spending can increase pressure on public budgets, emergency management systems, and infrastructure funding nationwide.
Reducing Climate Costs Through Climate Action
While this article focuses on the growing financial costs associated with climate change, the issue is not only about money for many people. It is also about recognizing our environmental impact and taking responsibility for reducing it in order to help preserve a healthy planet for future generations.
While individuals alone cannot solve climate change, collective action can help reduce future climate adaptation costs over time.
For those interested in taking action, there are three important steps:
- Estimate your carbon footprint to better understand the emissions connected to your lifestyle and activities.
- Create a plan to gradually reduce emissions through energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and more sustainable choices.
- Address remaining emissions by supporting verified carbon reduction projects through carbon credits.
Carbon credits are one of the most cost-effective tools available for climate action because they help fund projects that generate verified emission reductions at scale. Supporting global emission reduction efforts can help reduce the long-term impacts and costs associated with climate change.
Visit Terrapass to learn more about carbon footprints, carbon credits, and climate action solutions.
The post How Climate Change Is Raising the Cost of Living appeared first on Terrapass.
Carbon Footprint
Carbon credit project stewardship: what happens after credit issuance
A carbon credit purchase is not a transaction that closes at issuance. The credit may be retired, the certificate filed, and the reporting box ticked. But on the ground, in the forest, in the field, and in the community, the work continues. It endures for years. In many cases, for decades.
![]()
-
Climate Change10 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases10 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿:满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Renewable Energy7 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Greenhouse Gases11 months ago
嘉宾来稿:探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测

