China’s coal demand is set to drop by 2027, more than cancelling out the effects of the Trump administration’s coal-friendly policies in the US, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Global coal demand is due to grow by 0.5% year-on-year to reach record levels in 2025, according to the latest figures in the IEA’s annual market report.

Yet this will be reversed over the next couple of years, as a faster-than-expected expansion of renewables in key Asian nations and “structural declines” in Europe push coal demand down, the agency says.

While US coal demand is set to continue falling, the decline will be slower than expected last year, due to new federal government efforts to support the fuel. 

However, the IEA’s upward revision of an extra 38m tonnes (Mt) of US coal use in 2027 is dwarfed by an even larger 126Mt downward revision in China’s coal use.

‘Unusual trends’

Coal demand will reach 8,845Mt around the world in 2025. This is slightly (44Mt) higher than the IEA had forecast in its 2024 coal market report.

The agency notes some “unusual regional trends” impacting this growth, including a 37Mt year-on-year increase in US coal demand in 2025 to 516Mt. This is 59Mt (17%) higher than the IEA projected in 2024.

A new suite of measures under the Trump administration have supported the short-term use of coal, including the modernisation of existing coal plants and reopening shuttered ones.

EU coal use declined at a slower pace than expected due to lower wind and hydropower output, according to the IEA. Nevertheless, the bloc “continues its structural decline” in coal demand, driven by renewables expansion, carbon pricing and coal phaseout pledges.

India saw an unexpected dip in coal consumption in 2025, linked to a strong monsoon season that increased hydropower output and curbed electricity demand.

In China, which accounts for more than half of the world’s coal use, coal demand remained roughly unchanged between 2024 and 2025, the IEA says.

Demand drop

In its 2024 market report, the IEA projected a continued increase in global coal demand out to 2027. This was largely driven by China, which was on track to see its demand exceed 5,000Mt each year, up from 4939Mt in 2024.

In its latest forecast, the agency estimates that global coal demand will instead “plateau” in the coming years, “falling slightly by the end of the decade”.

Again, this is largely due to trends in China’s power sector, reflecting the “crowding-out” of coal from the grid by the nation’s “formidable renewables expansion” and “steady growth” of nuclear power.

(By contrast, last year clean-power sources were only expected to meet “most of” China’s rising electricity demand.)

The IEA estimates that China’s coal demand will drop to 4,879Mt by 2027 and continue falling to 4,772Mt by the end of the decade.

The global projection for 2027 is 149Mt (2%) lower than expected last year.

As the chart below shows, while US short-term coal demand is now expected to be higher than the IEA’s previous forecast, the drop in China more than makes up for this.

The projected dip in Chinese coal use is largely attributed to the “rapid expansion” of its renewable-energy capacity, the IEA notes. Renewables are soon set to provide a greater share of China’s electricity than coal, rising to 49% of generation by 2030, according to the report.

The Chinese government has set an ambition of peaking coal use before 2030. 

While the IEA’s data suggests this goal will be met, the agency stresses that several factors “could turn the slight drop into a small increase”.

These include higher electricity demand, an increase in coal-to-chemicals projects and fluctuations in renewable-energy output due to weather conditions and other factors.

Meanwhile, India remains a “key driver of global coal demand”, but the new report also downgrades estimates for the nation’s future coal growth. The IEA forecasts that Indian coal demand will be 1,383Mt in 2027 – 39Mt (3%) lower than last year’s forecast.

This comes as a growing share of India’s electricity mix is provided by low-carbon power sources, with coal’s share set to decline from 70% in 2025 to 60% by 2030, according to the IEA.

Guest post: China and India account for 87% of new coal-power capacity so far in 2025

China energy

|

27.08.25

Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop

China energy

|

12.08.25

Analysis: Nearly 60 countries have ‘dramatically’ cut plans to build coal plants since 2015

Coal

|

08.04.25

Q&A: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power

Coal

|

27.09.24

The post IEA: Declining coal demand in China set to outweigh Trump’s pro-coal policies appeared first on Carbon Brief.

IEA: Declining coal demand in China set to outweigh Trump’s pro-coal policies

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here. This is the last edition of Cropped for 2025. The newsletter will return on 14 January 2026.

Key developments

UN talks face headwinds

GLOBAL OUTLOOK: A major new report calling for joint action on climate change and biodiversity was published this month at the UN Environment Assembly talks in Nairobi, Kenya, the Associated Press reported. The newswire said that more than 300 scientists from 83 countries contributed to the latest UN Environment Programme (UNEP) global environment outlook report.

‘SHARP DIVISIONS’: However, for the first time ever, countries failed to agree on a “summary for policymakers” to be published alongside the outlook, according to Agence France-Presse. It said that “sharp divisions” prevented countries reaching consensus on the high-level political summary, with “major oil producers Saudi Arabia and the US oppos[ing] references to phasing out fossil fuels”. The newswire added that UNEP chief Inger Andersen called the lack of a summary “regrettable”, but said the “integrity of the report” remained.

NEW AGREEMENTS: Separate to the report, negotiators in Nairobi were also tasked with agreeing on 15 resolutions and two decisions on a wide range of environmental topics, from plastics to the impact of artificial intelligence, forcing them to “work throughout the day and into the night” towards the end of the summit, according to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB). In the end, countries adopted 11 resolutions, including on protecting coral reefs from climate change, the global management of wildfires and the preservation of glaciers, a second ENB report said.

TURKISH INFLUENCE: Climate Home News reported that Turkey, the country co-hosting the COP31 climate summit next year alongside Australia, “sought to weaken language on climate change in several draft resolutions” being discussed at the talks. The publication said that the nation, often working alongside Saudi Arabia, “pushed to dilute wording on the climate crisis, the science of melting glaciers and the role of young and Indigenous people”. A separate Climate Home News story said that countries agreed to a first-of-its-kind resolution on addressing the environmental effects of AI, but failed to include a reference to examining its “life cycle” impacts.

‘Deadly’ Asia floods

‘NOT NORMAL’: Climate change made the rainfall behind the “deadly” floods and landslides in parts of south Asia earlier this month more likely to occur and more intense, a World Weather Attribution study covered by the Hindustan Times found. Deforestation and rapid urbanisation also contributed to the extreme flooding that killed more than 1,600 people in several countries, including Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Thailand, the newspaper said. The Guardian noted that while monsoon rains often bring flooding, scientists said this level of intensity was “not normal”.

FOREST LOSS: Mongabay looked at how deforestation contributed to the “catastrophic” impacts from Cyclone Senyar, which caused floods and landslides in Sumatra, Indonesia. The outlet said that “decades of deforestation, mining, plantations and peat drainage left watersheds unable to absorb intense rainfall”. Indonesian environmental group WALHI told the Associated Press that deforestation “stripped away natural defences that once absorbed rainfall and stabilised soil”. Gus Irawan Pasaribu, a local government leader in Tapanuli, told Reuters: “If our forests were well-preserved…it would not have been this terrible.”

NATURE IMPACTS: A separate Mongabay article reported on the “extensive” damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah to Sri Lanka’s “biodiversity-rich” central highlands earlier this month. The outlet said that initial assessments have shown disastrous impacts of flooding and landslides in places such as the Knuckles mountain range, a “Unesco-listed biodiversity hotspot”. Meanwhile, the floods that hit Indonesia were an “extinction-level disturbance” for the Tapanuli orangutan – the world’s rarest great ape, scientists told the Guardian.

Spotlight

Building a bird sanctuary at a London reservoir

In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief visits a radical conservation project aiming to reverse a decline in water birds at a Victorian reservoir in north London.

“I’d recommend bringing wellies! It’s very muddy.”

Those were the instructions of Ben MacMillan, an ecologist at the Canal & River Trust, a charity responsible for looking after the UK’s waterways, including canals, reservoirs and towpaths.

On a damp and grey Tuesday morning, he guided Carbon Brief round the back of a playing fields car park in Hendon, north London, past a metal fence reading “no entry” and across ground covered by several inches of mud to the unlikely site of a radical new conservation effort.

The site is at a degraded wetlands on the northern edge of the Welsh Harp reservoir, a large human-made lake capable of holding 400 Olympic-sized swimming pools of water, first established by the Victorians in the 1830s.

In the 1950s, the reservoir was declared one of the UK’s “sites of special scientific interest”, due to its ability to host an unusually large number of species, including breeding waterbirds, such as silvery-grey common terns and elegant great-crested grebes.

Despite the designation, little was done to protect the site from various threats, including the spread of invasive species, increasing urbanisation and pollution from major roads. The reservoir is bordered on one side by the M1, the main motorway from London to northern England, and by the North Circular, part of central London’s busy ring-road, on another.

In the 1980s, a conservation project led by ecologist Leo Batten transformed the site to create new refuges for breeding birds.

However, for the past 40 years, the reservoir has fallen into “mismanagement”, according to MacMillan – with devastating consequences for its wildlife.

In 2022, just two tern chicks were successfully fledged at the reservoir, compared to 44 in 2000, MacMillan said. Great-crested grebe nests have also dropped from 55 in 1987 to 27 in 2022.

Redesigning the landscape

The dramatic decline has spurred the start of a new £400m restoration project, called “wings on water”, which began in October 2025 and will continue for the next three years.

Headed by MacMillan, the project is making radical changes to the landscape of the site in order to create new habitats and breeding spots for its water birds.

MacMillan has contracted the services of restoration specialists Ebsford Environmental, who have used diggers to create a network of channels across the site.

These channels have uncovered a series of islands that can offer birds a safe place to breed, away from predators such as urban foxes and mink, MacMillan said.

As well as dredging the landscape, MacMillan also plans to introduce new micro-ecosystems, such as wildflower meadows, that will eventually form a “patchwork” capable of supporting a wide range of species.

“It’s all about creating a diversity of habitat,” he said. “It might take five or 10 years to develop, but eventually we’ll end up with an amazing complex mosaic of habitats.”

While MacMillan is “very happy” with the progress being made, the project has some issues to contend with.

One of the recently dug channels is contaminated by toxic silt, poisoned by the runoff of petrol from the nearby major roads. If the petrol seeps out of the silt, it could coat the feathers of birds, negatively affecting their health, MacMillan said.

Ninja turtle legacy

The site is also home to a number of invasive species, each with their own impacts.

One animal causing a particular nuisance are red-eared terrapins, a type of omnivorous shelled reptile, similar in appearance to a turtle, that are native to the US.

“They link back to the 1990s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle craze,” MacMillan explained. “People bought loads of them. Then they thought: ‘Oh, these are getting a bit big now’ – and decided to release them in their local park.”

Terrapins have a life span of around 40 years, meaning many released on a whim 30 years ago have now established themselves in waterway habitats across the UK.

While terrapins feed on plants, they have also been seen taking chicks and eggs from nesting birds, MacMillan said:

“In an ideal world, we would move them on. But in practice, it’s very difficult to actually catch them.”

As well as restoring the site for the good of birds, the project also aims to improve access to nature for the local community.

The team plans to install a new boardwalk and viewing platform for the public, which they aim to open next year.

“It should provide a really nice space for people to take a walk in a green space, while being able to spot some breeding birds, in a very urbanised area,” MacMillan said.

News and views

NATURE CASH: The ‘Cali Fund’ – which could generate billions of dollars each year for conservation – recently received its first donation of just $1,000, Carbon Brief reported. On 19 November, nine months after the fund launched, UK start-up TierraViva AI put forward the contribution. The company’s chief executive told Carbon Brief that this was an “ice-breaker” aimed to encourage others to pay in. One expert described the contribution as a good “first step”, but said it is now “time for larger actors to step forward”. Large companies in sectors such as pharmaceutical, cosmetic, biotechnology, agribusiness and technology could contribute to the fund.

FARMING LOSSES: UK crop farmers lost more than £800m in 2025 due to poor harvests and “record heat and drought”, the Guardian reported, based on analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). Farmers recorded one of the worst harvests on record this year, with production of wheat, oats, spring and winter barley and oilseed rape dropping 20% below the 10-year average. Three of the five worst harvests have occurred since 2020, the newspaper added, quoting the ECIU’s Tom Lancaster: “The evidence suggests that climate impacts are what’s actually driving issues of profitability.” Meanwhile, BBC News reported that the UK government “roll[ed] back” certain nature protection requirements for housing developers in England.

CLIMATE FINANCE: Biodiversity, conservation and anti-desertification programmes in Africa have struggled to fill a “funding vacuum” since the US froze its development aid earlier this year, according to Mongabay. Experts and observers told the outlet they are “increasingly concerned” about the funding gap that “neither Europe nor billionaire philanthropists seem ready to fill”. Amhed Moustapha Mfokeu, a Cameroonian expert in climate finance, told Mongabay that the closure of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) “created a significant gap in funding for climate-related projects”.

SAVING SOILS: Around 70% of countries do not prioritise soil restoration in their national climate plans, a new report covered by EFEVerde found. The report, from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s world commission on environmental law and other groups, said that healthier soils can absorb more carbon and help to limit global warming, the outlet noted. Praveena Sridhar from the Save Soil movement wrote in Earth.org that the recent COP30 climate talks in Brazil “regarded [soils] as a sub-component of the agricultural machine, instead of the foundation to agriculture and many other components of terrestrial life”.

TRADE DEAL: The European parliament voted in favour of including measures to “protect European farmers” in a potential trade deal with South American countries, Bloomberg reported. The outlet said the EU is “rushing” this week to finalise the Mercosur deal, which has been negotiated over the past 25 years and aims to boost trade between the EU and Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. Reuters reported that France and Italy want to delay the vote, with France trying to “form a blocking minority” against the agreement.

XMAS CHEER: Christmas tree farmers in Canada are adapting to climate change impacts such as warmer weather, CBC News reported. Michael Cormack, who owns a tree farm near Toronto, told the outlet: “This year in July, we were averaging over 29C. So we had trees from two to three years ago that just died…Four years ago, we had a tornado here that wiped out a bunch of our stuff.” The outlet also addressed the age-old question of whether a real or artificial christmas tree is more “eco-friendly”, with one tree researcher saying that a real tree bought from a “local farmer” tends to be a lower-emission choice, or re-using an artificial tree for a long time.

Watch, read, listen

KOLAHOI GLACIER: A retreating glacier in Kashmir is “transforming landscapes and communities”, the Guardian said.

FISHY: DeSmog investigated accusations that the world’s largest salmon producer has wielded a “charm offensive” in the Scottish Highlands to distract from its “noisy” and “polluting” fish farms.

LIVING UNDER THREAT: The Associated Press reported on the “steep risks” environmental activists face in Colombia – the “deadliest country in the world” for environmental defenders.

BAMBOO BARRIER: Rivercane – a species of bamboo – could help protect the southern US from future floods, Grist reported.

New science

• Hard coral cover in Caribbean reefs has reduced by almost half since 1980 | Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and International Coral Reef Initiative
• Three decades of Amazon forest data shows “higher tree mortality during intense droughts” | Nature
• Vertebrate species could face unsuitable conditions across 10-52% of their range by 2100 due to climate and land-use changes | Global Change Biology

In the diary

• 15-19 December: 70th meeting of the Global Environment Facility council | Virtual

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Ayesha Tandon also contributed to this issue. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

Cropped 3 December 2025: Extreme weather in Africa; COP30 roundup; Saudi minister interview

Cropped

|

03.12.25

Cropped 19 November 2025: COP30 edition

Cropped

|

19.11.25

Cropped 5 November 2025: Nature finance at COP30; Storms devastate crops; Brazilian deforestation decline

Cropped

|

05.11.25

Cropped 22 October 2025: Global forest loss dips; Bird species in peril; Climate impact on Thai trees

Cropped

|

22.10.25

The post Cropped 17 December 2025: ‘Deadly’ Asia floods; Boosting London’s water birds; UN headwinds appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 17 December 2025: ‘Deadly’ Asia floods; Boosting London’s water birds; UN headwinds

Evans Njewa of Malawi is chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group at UN climate talks.

At COP30 in Belém, the world took a long-awaited step forward. Countries agreed to triple international finance for adaptation by 2035.

Using the current goal as a starting point, as proposed by the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the new target amounts to about $120 billion a year.

For the LDCs, which are home to more than a billion people on the frontlines of climate impacts, this commitment is more than just a number. It is a signal of hope, solidarity and the possibility of a more resilient future.

Now the real work begins to turn this promise into reality.

The path ahead is clear. The UN Environment Programme’s 2025 Adaptation Gap Report shows that developing countries will require between $310 billion and $365 billion annually by 2035 to protect lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

The current adaptation finance target is around $40 billion a year by 2025 – but we do not know yet whether it has been met, with projections suggesting that is unlikely.

Business-as-usual: Donors pour climate adaptation finance into big infrastructure, neglecting local needs

Tripling this goal would be real progress, but still only a foundation. While the global adaptation gap remains wide, we now have a mandate to begin closing it.

The world is no longer debating whether adaptation matters. COP30 made it clear that adaptation is essential; the priority and line of survival for LDCs – and many developing countries are ready to act.

We are ready

Twenty-five LDCs and 72 countries globally now have national adaptation plans in place while others have included adaptation as a component in their broader Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Communities have identified concrete, ready-to-implement actions across agriculture, biodiversity, water, health, energy and infrastructure sectors. The blueprints exist. The needs are known. The financial gap is known, too.

People on the ground are prepared to introduce drought-resilient crops, restore mangroves, upgrade drainage systems and build early-warning systems that save lives and livelihoods.

This is where developed countries have an unprecedented opportunity to lead. The technologies exist. Finance exists in the world’s wealthiest economies.

Rich nations “on track” to double adaptation finance but huge gap persists

What is needed now is political will – to honour commitments, uphold the principles of the Paris Agreement, and support those who contributed least to this crisis but suffer its worst impacts.

Grants, not loans

For too long, much of the adaptation support on offer has come as loans, many of them non-concessional, pushing vulnerable countries deeper into debt.

COP30 gives the world a chance to change course. For the LDC Group, the message is clear: adaptation finance must be predominantly grant-based.

Without debt relief, climate action will fail

Grants build resilience without placing new burdens on countries already stretched thin. It is fairer, just and economically wiser than debt-creating finance. When providing adaptation finance, both the quantitative and qualitative aspects must be taken into consideration.

So here is our invitation to developed countries:

• Confirm and make concrete national commitments toward the tripling target of $120 billion a year – accessible, predictable, transparent and aligned with need.
• Prioritise grants at scale, ensuring that protection from climate impacts does not come with a price tag communities cannot afford.
• Channel support for adaptation through funds established under the UNFCCC, particularly those designed to specifically support LDCs and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• Streamline access procedures so that LDCs and SIDS can receive support quickly – because bureaucracy should never stand between people and their safety.
• Respond to country needs: Providing funding for countries’ priorities promotes sustainability – and wherever possible, supporting locally-led initiatives that incorporate Indigenous knowledge and technology is preferable.

Disappointment on LDC Fund replenishment

At COP30, LDCs called for scaling up of the Least Developed Countries Fund to $3 billion over the next four years under the Global Environment Facility’s ninth replenishment cycle. This request aligned with the climate finance commitment made at COP29 in Baku.

However, developed countries refused to meet this expectation. If it had been agreed upon in the COP30 decision, it would have significantly strengthened morale and fostered trust with LDCs.

Nonetheless, the COP30 decision on adaptation finance still offers a rare moment of hope and possibility. Early ambition now can build momentum. Factoring in inflation, adaptation needs will rise to between $440 billion and $520 billion by 2035 – so success today must pave the way for even stronger action in the future.

Resources and resolve required

To the developed countries: your leadership can unlock a chain reaction. Your commitments can build trust. Your partnership can help transform vulnerability into resilience.

This is one of history’s defining moments. The world can still choose to meet the climate challenge – not only by cutting emissions, but by ensuring every community has the tools to adapt and thrive.

The LDCs are ready. We bear the leadership in adaptation, have the plans, the determination and the ingenuity. What we need now are partners with resources and resolve.

The post Tripling adaptation finance is just the start – delivery is what matters appeared first on Climate Home News.

Tripling adaptation finance is just the start – delivery is what matters