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Key developments
Shanghai cooperation summit
SUSTAINABLE COOPERATION: A “final declaration” from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin this week included a pledge to “strengthen cooperation on sustainable development issues”, said Russian news agency Tass. The SCO grouping, which includes China, India, Russia and others, adopted a “statement on sustainable energy development and approved a roadmap for implementing the strategy for energy cooperation” out to 2030, according to the full text of the declaration published by the Hindustan Times.

‘GREEN INDUSTRY’: In his speech at the summit, Chinese president Xi Jinping said that “China will establish three major platforms” for cooperation with other SCO members, covering “energy, green industry and the digital economy”, according to a transcript released by state news agency Xinhua. Xi committed to host the “SCO green and sustainable development forum” and to “work with” SCO countries to increase the installed capacity of solar and wind each by 10 gigawatts (GW) in the next five years. Xi added that SCO members “have rich energy resources” and “should seek integration, not decoupling”, according to the transcript. The Associated Press said that Xi was “attempting to expand the scope of the SCO”, originally a security forum. It added that his plans included a “development bank run by the organisation” and $1.4bn in loans over the next three years to member states.
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POWER OF SIBERIA 2: Meanwhile, Russia announced that it had signed a deal with China to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline linking the two countries, the Financial Times reported. Bloomberg cited Alexey Miller, CEO of Russian energy company Gazprom, saying the long-anticipated scheme could send as much as 50bn cubic metres of gas a year to China via Mongolia for 30 years. It noted that China had “yet to confirm the detail” of the deal. The flow of pipeline gas to China could “extend the oversupply period [of liquefied natural gas (LNG)] beyond the late 2020s”, according to a LinkedIn post by Anne-Sophie Corbeau, global research scholar at Center on Global Energy Policy. In another LinkedIn post, Michal Meidan, director of China energy programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, called the announcement a “huge turning point in the geopolitics of energy”. She said that China is “hedging against over reliance on US LNG” and that the project would “increase China’s reliance on Russian gas considerably”.
‘Absolute’ carbon market caps from 2027
ETS CAP: From 2027, China will begin introducing “absolute emissions caps in some industries for the first time” under its national carbon market, the emissions trading scheme (ETS), reported Reuters, citing a statement from the State Council. The newswire added that, according to this statement, the cap will be implemented with a combination of “free and paid carbon emissions allowances”. Bloomberg explained: “The plan also calls for setting absolute limits on emissions, a tougher standard than the current system, which imposes caps based on carbon intensity and allows emissions to rise over time.” The outlet quoted the official statement saying China is aiming to have a “transparent, standardised and internationally aligned voluntary reduction market” in place by 2030. State broadcaster CCTV reported the news in its morning bulletin, available online in three videos.
N2O ACTION PLAN: Meanwhile, China has published an action plan for controlling industrial emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), industry news outlet BJX News reported. N2O is a powerful greenhouse gas with 273-times the warming impact of carbon dioxide (CO2). The plan called for the emissions of N2O, per unit of production for specific chemicals, to decrease to a “world-leading level” by 2030. A government official said that N2O accounted for 4.3% of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, according to energy news outlet International Energy Net, with industrial processes accounting for 28% of N2O emissions overall.
MARKET INCENTIVES: The plan’s key measures include finance and market incentives and technology development, as well as monitoring and reporting, according to a summary published by the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. Dr Jiang Lin from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab said in a LinkedIn post that the “successful implementation” of this plan could “reduce emissions by about 120m tonnes of CO2 [carbon dioxide] equivalent a year”. China has pledged that its next 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement will cover all greenhouse gases, whereas it previously only targeted CO2. It also discussed controls on N2O – and on methane – in talks with the outgoing Biden administration of the US late last year.
‘GREEN’ CITIES: China has also announced a policy for the construction of “high-quality urban development”, reported Xinhua. The headline of the report called the policy – issued by the Central Committee of the Communist party of China and the State Council – a “roadmap” (路线图) for China’s urban development, referring to a comment from Yang Baojun, chairman of the Urban Planning Society of China. The “main goal”, according to the policy, is to make “significant progress”, including cities’ “green and low-carbon” transitions, by 2030, and establishing “modern people’s cities” by 2035, added Xinhua.
Wind and solar capacity ‘tripled since 2020’
ENERGY ‘ACHIEVEMENTS’: At a press conference on China’s energy “achievements” during the 14th “five-year plan” period (2020-25), China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) said the capacity of wind and solar has more than tripled since the end of 2020, with the total hitting 1,680GW as of the end of July, reported finance news outlet Caixin. The head of the NEA said China was on track to achieve its “key” energy goals for the 14th five-year plan period “on schedule”, Xinhua reported, citing the agency’s head Wang Hongzhi. Wang stated that China’s wind and solar exports in the same period have allowed other countries to cut carbon emissions by 4bn tonnes, said another Xinhua article. CCTV said that, according to Wang, China’s “newly increased” electricity consumption between 2020-25 will exceed the “annual electricity consumption of the EU”.
‘SURGING’ POWER DEMAND: Electricity consumption growth over the next 10 years will ease from 5.6% per year out to 2030 to 4.3% a year to 2035, predicted Ouyang Changyu, deputy chief engineer of State Grid Corporation of China, according to financial outlet Yicai. He said China will “increasingly look” at its west and north regions of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Tibet – which are rich in renewable energy resources such as solar, wind and hydropower – to meet this “surging” demand, added the outlet. Meanwhile, top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released new draft regulations on rules for the “medium- and long-term electricity market”, according to BJX News.
Solar and steel face ‘overcapacity’ controls
TACKLING ‘OVERCAPACITY’: The Chinese government has been continuing in its efforts to curb overcapacity of the solar industry, with Bloomberg reporting “signs of progress”. The Financial Times reported: “China has ordered the solar sector to rein in overcapacity and cut-throat pricing as the biggest manufacturers suffer billions of dollars in losses.” The steel industry, which has also been “tackl[ing] overcapacity”, will face a production cut between 2025 and 2026, Reuters reported, citing an “official document reviewed by Reuters and a source with knowledge of the matter”. A new steel policy will tighten controls on the production capacity and output of the sector, said Xinyi Shen, China team lead at thinktank the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), on LinkedIn.
EXPORTS TO AFRICA: Meanwhile, China exported more than 15GW in solar equipment to Africa over the past 12 months, Bloomberg reported, citing analysis of customs data by thinktank Ember. The New York Times, covering the same report, said Africa offered “huge” markets to Chinese solar panels when domestic prices had “fallen sharply” due to “overproduction”. Wired wrote that while solar sales remain small in Africa, the “global south appears to be at a turning point in how it thinks about energy”, with solar “emerging as the cheaper and greener way forward” for the first time. A Wall Street Journal newsletter also noted the African solar figures and the debate around “overcapacity”, adding: “There’s a novel dimension to China’s clean-tech boom. It’s possible, in the context of climate change, to estimate the ‘correct’ production volume – not based on current levels of supply and demand, but on what’s required to limit global warming.”
Captured

Spotlight
China’s adaptation to ‘more frequent and intense’ heat extremes
China has seen a series of temperature records broken this summer. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) says that “extreme high temperatures” have shown an “increasing trend” in China since its records began in 1961.
In this issue, Carbon Brief looks into the heat extremes in China and how the country is adapting to the impacts. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
How are heat extremes changing in China?
China’s average annual temperature is rising, according to data from the CMA’s Climate Bulletins, with 2024 being the hottest year on record.
Moreover, as the global climate has warmed, the number of “hot days” that China is experiencing has been on the rise.
The CMA defines a “hot day” or “high temperature day” as one that reaches or exceeds 35C. It adds that “high temperatures for several consecutive days constitute a heatwave”.
Prof Wenjia Cai, from the department of earth system science of Tsinghua University, told Carbon Brief that there are more ways to define heatwaves than CMA’s absolute threshold of 35C.
However, regardless of the definition used, the “number of heatwave days is definitely increasing as a result of climate change”, she added.
What role does human-caused climate change play?
A field of climate science called “attribution” has emerged over the past two decades to establish the role that human-caused warming plays in individual extreme weather events.
Some 114 extremes and trends in China have been the subject of an attribution study, including more than 20 relating specifically to extreme heat.
One study found that “more intense and more frequent warm extremes” were observed across “most regions” in China during 1951-2018 and that “greenhouse gas forcing plays a dominant role” in this.
What impact are these heatwaves having?
Heatwaves have a wide variety of impacts on human activities, such as public health, crop yields and economic output.
In 2023, more than 30,000 deaths were related to heatwaves in China – 1.9 times higher than the average over 1986-2005, according to a report by Cai and her colleagues.
Another profound impact of heatwaves is that they can exacerbate droughts, with knock-on impacts for agriculture.
Droughts in 2024 hit more than 11 million people in China, with more than 1.2m hectares of affected crops and direct economic losses topping nearly 8.4bn yuan ($1.2bn), the Ministry of Emergency Management said in early 2025.
Heat-related economic losses could reach nearly 5% of China’s GDP by 2060, according to a recent guest post for Carbon Brief.
Other than manufacturing, electricity supplies in China have also been frequently reported to be affected by hot days.
Dr Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at thinktank Ember, told Carbon Brief that “when temperatures soar, electricity demand spikes – mainly due to air conditioning – and that can stretch the grid, especially in already tight systems”.
How is China adapting to heatwaves?
In recent years, China has implemented more and more policies aimed at adapting to heatwaves. For example, weather forecasts and heatwave alerts have been provided.
Central and local governments have also issued labour policies aimed at protecting workers against extreme heat.
Last year, China published the “national climate change health adaptation action plan (2024-30)”. This followed the 2022 publication of a national adaptation strategy for 2035, which mentions heatwaves in relation to the power sector, agriculture and health.
Ember’s Yang says that in terms of the electricity system, the old “planning psychology” needs to shift towards a more coordinated strategy, so that it can better cope with extreme heat:
“For example, during extreme heat, instead of just ramping up supply, we should also be encouraging users to reduce or shift their electricity use during peak hours, using price signals or incentives.”
Watch, read, listen
HONG KONG ROOF: Climate outlet Xylom published an article exploring why rooftop solar panels have not been rolled out at scale in Hong Kong.
GRID REFORM: In an article for China Electricity Power News shared by Xinhua, Prof Xia Qing of Tsinghua University and Chen Yuguo, director of Qingneng Interconnection Consulting, discussed how developing “new energy market entry and trading mechanisms” will help China’s grid reforms.
ENERGY AND TECHNOLOGY: Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover History Lab, talked to Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast about China’s “breakneck economic growth”, as well as developments in energy, industry and technology.
AMAZON REPORTING: Greenpeace East Asia interviewed Liu Min, one of only three independent Chinese journalists who reported from the COP16 biodiversity summit last November in Colombia, finding out her reporting journeys in the Amazon.
52.2 billion yuan
The value of “direct economic losses” in China – equivalent to $7.3bn in July 2025 alone – due to flooding, landslides, earthquakes and drought, according to a Reuters report citing China’s Ministry of Emergency Management. The newswire said “road damages” since 1 July amounted to 16bn yuan ($2.2bn), according to the Ministry of Transport.
New science
Climate impacts and future trends of hailstorms in China based on millennial records
Nature Communications
The number of “hailstorm days” in China “increased significantly” after 1850 due to global warming, according to a new study. The authors combined hail damage records from Chinese historical books, governmental hail damage records and hailstorm observations from more than 2,000 meteorological stations around China to analyse the variation in hailstorm days over the past 2,890 years. They also developed a model, which suggests a further increase in the number of hailstorm days as the planet continues to warm.
The 2021 Henan flood increased citizen demand for government-led climate change adaptation in China
Communications earth and environment
The 2021 flood in Henan – one of the deadliest floods in China’s history – led to a “sharp increase” in petitions for drainage, neighborhood safety and flood prevention, according to new research. The authors analysed “citizen engagement” on a government-run petition platform to “examine how residents communicate demands for public safety and infrastructure”. The study showed that “climate risk can catalyse political engagement in non-democratic settings, highlighting the value of citizen input in adaptation planning”, according to the authors.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 4 September 2025: Shanghai cooperation summit; ETS ‘absolute emissions cap’; China’s heatwave adaptation appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers
Despite millions of dollars in grants and technical help for African businesses to power farming and other food production activities with renewable energy, most efforts remain stuck at the early stages because they struggle to find the investors, markets and expertise they need to grow.
This was the message from a coalition of global institutions working on energy, water and agriculture at this month’s Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, Rwanda.
“Energy, agriculture, water and nutrition actors rarely design solutions together,” the Agri-Energy Coalition said in a Call to Action on powering food systems with clean energy.
Using more renewables – especially solar power – to drive food systems would reduce food losses, ensure year-round availability and affordability of healthy foods, and improve productivity, income and resilience among farmers, food processors and other small enterprises, the coalition added.
In an interview with Climate Home News at the forum, Olamide Niyi-Afuye, CEO of the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) – a body representing private-sector developers of small-scale, off-grid electricity systems across the continent – said its members are starting to recognise this interdependence and are increasingly considering businesses that combine energy with agricultural activities.
This, Niyi-Afuye added, could lead to greater supply and use of clean power for key processes like irrigation, food processing and storage, creating new sources of revenue for both sectors.
CHN: Conversations at the Africa Food Systems Forum highlighted how organisations working in energy and agriculture often operate in silos. What has hampered their collaboration, and how has that affected Africa’s economic development?
A: Most mini-grid companies in Africa were primarily incentivised to achieve connections. If you look at some ongoing projects, you see a cost-per-connection model [of revenue]. When a subsidy is tied to achieving a connection, regardless of whether it is a productive connection, you might not notice the problem until five years down the line, when you realise the cash flows are not what you projected.
Despite African walkout, fractious land COP ends without drought deal
So now we’re in a “come-to-Jesus moment” as an industry, where we’re righting the wrongs and adjusting our business models to make sure companies do not go bust and there is some level of sustainability over the long term.
The saying is not wrong that we’ve been working in our own silos because we’ve focused on the smaller things instead of the helicopter view. There needs to be cross-pollination [between the energy and agriculture sectors] because, if we are thinking about industrialisation, energy is a key driver of industrialisation. We will not achieve that if we’re not in the room and part of those conversations.
CHN: Productive use of energy is intended to ensure electricity access goes beyond lighting homes to improving livelihoods, creating jobs and powering equipment. But what happens when farmers cannot afford the equipment they need to do that? How can energy, agriculture and equipment players work together to make the transition more accessible?
A: That’s why we’re having conversations with companies set up to de-risk the agriculture sector. By leveraging that connection, we’re able to aggregate potential energy needs and develop instruments that make equipment more affordable through bulk procurement.
We can have arrangements that make it easier for farmers and food producers to lease equipment and eventually own it over a period. There’s no real pressure to recover the capital very quickly because you’re looking at scale.


There is a whole lot across the agricultural value chain that needs energy, from farming and harvesting to food processing and value-addition. We need to understand the energy needs across the value chain and bring our members in to provide solutions.
Developers do not necessarily need to provide every productive-use solution themselves. They can partner with equipment suppliers, financiers, agribusinesses and other service providers to enable customers to use electricity productively. The objective is simple: do not just electrify communities; enable economic activity that uses that electricity.
CHN: When Africa’s industrialisation is discussed, you hear things like renewables cannot provide enough baseload, while some food processors are sceptical about switching to renewable energy because of these concerns about reliability. What is your response?
A: It’s not a controversial statement to say that a typical baseload is usually from the grid, and it’s usually from multiple sources including renewable energy. For large-scale operations, we can look at blending multiple sources of energy. But how do we solve the problem of a mid-sized farmer? We can solve it with a mini-grid using renewable energy.
Comment: Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition
If you go to a small farmer in a rural area, they don’t care about what source of energy they’re getting. They just want something that can help them get from A to B. If you look at the direct energy needs of farmers and food processors, I’m sure 90 percent of their consumption can be solved by renewable energy. Let’s start with that problem first. Then, as they scale, they might need to ramp up, and we can start talking about a bigger baseload.
CHN: How much agricultural value is lost because farmers and food businesses lack reliable, affordable electricity?
A: If you look at, for example, the fact that we need to maybe plant tomatoes or strawberries in Jos before it gets to Lagos [Nigeria], which most likely is by road, I can assure you that a good chunk, if not stored properly, would be bad by then. So the fact that we do not have energy is in itself a lost opportunity to maximise the potential of the agriculture sector. So until we’ve solved the energy problem, we will not salvage waste – and for me that is a lost opportunity.
CHN: AGRA, an institution focused on scaling agricultural innovations to help smallholder farmers, estimates a massive shortfall between current investments in the continent’s food systems and what is actually needed to build a resilient, profitable agricultural economy – to the tune of $180 billion per year. Can integrating energy into food systems help bridge that gap?
A: Yes – if energy can help unlock the potential to earn more money, investors will follow the money. Investments go where there is certainty, and until there is certainty around cash flow and revenue, investment will be limited.
My vision is to see more Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) being signed between energy players and the agriculture sector. We can start by getting people into the room, understanding their pain points, crafting a framework and documentation that works for both parties, and then seeing deals happen.
This interview was shortened and edited for clarity.
The post How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers appeared first on Climate Home News.
How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers
Climate Change
Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality
Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience with the United Nations Foundation and Mattias Söderberg is global climate lead at Danish NGO DanChurchAid.
Recent extreme events – from wildfires and heatwaves in Europe to flash flooding following a glacier collapse in Nepal – have shocked and devastated communities, bringing years of warnings about such climate impacts to the doorstep of communities around the world.
One thing is certain: the new climate reality is here – and the adaptation strategies designed for yesterday’s world are no longer sufficient.
Attribution science has since shown that the hotter and more frequent heatwaves we’re experiencing around the world would have been virtually impossible without today’s high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate shocks are now so severe that they reverberate through supply chains, food and water systems, financial markets and the movement of people.
They must be a catalyst for a new way of thinking about adaptation and resilience, and how we finance solutions that work. A failure to invest in adaptation in one region can create costs far beyond it, which is why the concept of shared resilience is critical for leaders to grasp.
Investment not charity
At the UN General Assembly (UNGA 81) this month, leaders have an opportunity to translate today’s urgency into concrete commitments on adaptation and loss and damage finance ahead of COP31.
Those commitments are needed to underpin global stability, shared prosperity and human security. Governments should use this moment to show what a new response looks like: finance that reaches communities faster, supports locally grounded solutions, strengthens national systems, and helps countries prepare before the next shock arrives.
If we want sustained economic growth, food and water security, and resilient and prosperous societies across every region, adaptation must be at the heart of today’s development and security agenda. It cannot be just a future planning consideration or a narrow issue for climate ministries. Adaptation is now everyone’s business – and it must be financed fast and fair.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly framed climate finance as an investment rather than charity, warning that “a world in climate chaos cannot be a world at peace” and describing human security as freedom from the chronic and sudden disruptions that climate change multiplies.
What’s more, adaptation delivers a real return-on-investment, with researchers estimating that every dollar invested produces $10 in benefits, saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and reducing the costs of future disasters.
Hitting adaptation limits
The urgency to scale adaptation systematically is growing. The newly released “Limiting Overshoot” report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) confirms what scientists have long warned: exceeding global warming of 1.5C is now unavoidable under current policies. Yet, how high temperatures rise – and how long the world remains above the 1.5C threshold – will determine whether communities, economies and entire ecosystems can keep pace.
There are limits to adaptation. When we breach those limits, lives and livelihoods are lost, and people and ecosystems suffer greatly. We cannot simply build yesterday’s infrastructure a little stronger and assume it will be enough.
Nepal flood destruction shows “limits to adaptation”, scientists say
We need to fundamentally change the systems that determine how societies anticipate, absorb and recover from both immediate and evolving non-linear climate shocks. This includes transforming physical systems, such as infrastructure, and the governance systems that affect where and how we live to how we maintain our health and wellbeing.
Finance today is nowhere near the scale of the challenge.
The UNEP “Adaptation Gap Report 2025” estimates the shortfall in adaptation finance in developing countries at $284 billion–$339 billion a year – roughly 12 to 14 times current international public flows of around $26 billion. That gap is a development, economic and human security problem, especially for the most vulnerable populations who have contributed the least to causing the climate crisis.
Building resilience into financial systems
There are already signs of what a more systemic adaptation response could look like. Communities around the world are delivering practical solutions at local level, even as adaptation finance remains notoriously, and appallingly, difficult to access. Cyclone-resistant homes, local forecasting capacities, drought-resistant crops, heat insurance for pregnant informal workers and mangrove restoration are rooted in local knowledge and lived experience, while delivering benefits far beyond the communities where they originate from.
But local innovation alone is not enough; the systems around it need to be resilient too.
Jamaica offers one example. The country has built a multi-layered disaster-risk financing framework, including a catastrophe bond and contingency funds, through sustained fiscal discipline and proactive investment. Its debt-to-GDP ratio fell from around 147% in 2012 to around 62% in 202-25. That groundwork matters when disaster strikes.
Hurricane Melissa’s destruction shows need for climate resilience push
Following Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica was able to secure billions of dollars in reconstruction financing from multilateral banks – finance that might otherwise have been much harder to access. The lesson is clear: resilience can be built into the financial architecture of a country before a crisis arrives. That is the shift we now need to make at scale.
The foundations already exist – in Kingston’s fiscal reforms, in early-warning systems from the Sahel to the Pacific, and in every community that adapted before disaster struck. What is still missing is the political will, and the finance, to take what works and put it to work everywhere, at the speed our world’s new climate reality demands.
To hear more on this issue from high-level officials and experts, sign up for this event during Climate Week NYC, at 8am EDT on September 24 (in person or online), moderated by Climate Home News Editor Megan Rowling: Adapting to the New Climate Reality: Why Accelerating Impacts Demand New Responses.
The post Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality appeared first on Climate Home News.
Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality
Climate Change
Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous
Lidy Nacpil is the coordinator of Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD).
Recent reporting on international climate negotiations has highlighted a sharpening divide within civil society and multilateral diplomacy. A troubling, simplistic narrative has taken root: that the UN climate process is witnessing a binary struggle between defenders of science and those attacking it.
This framing is not only inaccurate; it is dangerous. Characterising a substantive methodological and political debate in these terms misdiagnoses the stakes and stirs conflict instead of clarity.
No one disputes that climate action must rest on science. Science tells us what has led us to the climate crisis – the accumulation of historical emissions – and how much carbon budget remains if we are to keep temperature rise below 1.5C. It tells us how much global emissions must drop, and how fast. Science is also essential in assessing each country’s historical contribution to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Responsibility, however, must also be based on capacity. For those who generated the largest share of historical emissions, that capacity includes the enormous wealth and economic power accumulated through the same fossil-fuel-intensive development that generated those emissions.
As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond
While principles that should guide human action aren’t scientific questions – they are matters of values – applying them to real-world problems requires scientific grounding. Equity recognises the scientifically established reality of differentiated responsibilities among countries and within societies. Putting equity into practice demands scientific rigour.
Scrutiny of IPCC models
Today, critics are scrutinising the assumptions and frameworks behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to project future scenarios and map global mitigation pathways. These concerns centre squarely on equity and justice.
The economic, technological and policy assumptions used in IAM scenarios are normative choices rather than scientifically prescribed or neutral facts. These include choices about discount rates, economic growth, energy demand, technology costs, carbon prices, land availability and the regional location of mitigation. Many IAM scenarios reproduce existing global inequalities rather than transform them. Questions about transparency, representativeness and diversity in the scientific process are deeply urgent.
Most IAM scenarios are built primarily around global cost-effectiveness – directing emissions reductions to places where mitigation is modelled as cheapest rather than allocating effort according to historical responsibility, capacity and development needs.
The resulting pathways allow developed countries to retain disproportionately high levels of energy and fossil-fuel consumption while requiring developing countries to undertake substantial mitigation and carbon removal, including land-based measures that threaten food security and local development.
Northern models often assume uniform access to cheap financing. In reality, Global South economies face far higher capital costs, driving up the price tag of rapid infrastructure shifts.
Constraints on development space
Scenario constraints also limit the development space poorer nations need without guaranteeing adequate climate finance. When models treat profoundly unequal starting points as uniform baselines, policy pathways lock in global inequality under the banner of scientific objectivity.
Pointing out these structural flaws isn’t rejecting science. It is essential scientific scrutiny aimed at producing stronger, fairer, and more actionable results.
Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks
The fight is not about whether we want to keep temperature rise below 1.5C, but about how we get there. A pathway can be technically compatible with 1.5C or 2C while still being deeply unequal in who gets to consume energy, who must reduce emissions, and whose development is constrained. Temperature compatibility alone does not make a pathway fair.
Critiquing IAM scenarios from an equity perspective is neither an attack on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nor an attack on science. Rigorously examining IPCC reports – their substance, assumptions, and processes – is an acknowledgement of the IPCC’s importance and entirely consistent with scientific method.
Tensions over AR7 timing
There is a separate but related tension over the cycle and timeline of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). Some governments and civil society voices advocate completing its Working Group reports in time to feed directly into the UN’s Second Global Stocktake in 2028.
The motivation makes sense: policymakers need timely science. But several developing-country negotiators and researchers have warned that meeting that deadline could severely disadvantage the Global South.
Funding gap threatens next round of IPCC climate science reports, chair warns
Global North authors and institutions remain disproportionately represented in the research underlying IAM assessments. Developing-country researchers often work with fewer institutional resources, smaller research budgets, and less administrative support. Accelerated publishing and assessment schedules can further limit their ability to generate, submit, and peer-review research in time for inclusion.
The AR7 timeline concerns boil down to inclusivity, representation, and equity. Requiring the IPCC to meet tight political calendars without ensuring meaningful support and participation for developing-country researchers risks reproducing the very inequalities being challenged.
Cooperation requires equity
Political interests are indeed at work in UNFCCC negotiations and must be surfaced. Bad-faith actors seek to evade fossil-fuel phase-outs or shirk climate-finance obligations. Many developed country parties are guilty of both, including those who style themselves as “Friends of Science.”
We must not lump legitimate scientific critiques raised by several Global South researchers and many civil society organisations concerning representation, economic assumptions and fair-share accounting together with obstructionism. Doing so risks misrepresenting and delegitimising critical scientific work and Global South equity and justice perspectives.
The climate movement is strongest when it aligns rigorous science with global equity and justice. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals requires robust science that fully integrates the experiences, economic realities and academic contributions of the Global South. Effective climate action also requires international cooperation, and without equity, such cooperation cannot be sustained. We do not have to choose between science and equity. We need both.
The post Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous appeared first on Climate Home News.
Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous
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