Connect with us

Published

on

Copper Crunch! How Trump's Tariffs and Supply Shocks Drive Prices Up

Copper prices have risen due to market uncertainty, trade policies, and supply changes. Recently, copper jumped by more than 5% after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a 25% tariff on copper imports. This caused a rush in the market as traders tried to adjust prices and secure copper before tariffs took effect.

U.S. Tariffs Shake the Market: The Great Copper Rush

Trump’s comments on tariffs have caused a stir in the copper market. In a speech to Congress, he suggested that a 25% tariff on imported copper might already be in place. This shocked traders, as the market expected lower tariffs or a longer timeline.

Following this news, Comex copper prices soared, reaching nearly 12% higher than London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. This price gap led to a global scramble for copper that could be shipped to the U.S. before tariffs are enforced. U.S. manufacturers have also been stocking up to avoid paying extra costs in the future.

copper prices LME
Source: Bloomberg

Copper Inventories and Supply Constraints

Apart from tariffs, copper inventories have played a major role in price movements. Recently, copper stockpiles in China and overseas markets have dropped. 

In China, inventories fell by 9,000 metric tons in early March. In the U.S., both Comex and LME copper inventories declined, showing strong demand for the metal.

Copper ore supply has also tightened. A major copper producer, Indonesia, recently changed its mining regulations, impacting exports. This has added to concerns about future copper availability. Additionally, mining companies are struggling with declining ore grades, leading to lower copper output.

To address these shortages, companies are investing in new mining projects. For example, mining giant BHP is expanding operations in Botswana, Africa, in an effort to meet rising demand. However, opening new mines takes years, meaning supply issues are unlikely to be resolved quickly.

Why Copper Prices Matter and What Affects Them

Copper is a key material in construction, electronics, and renewable energy. The rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and green energy projects has made copper even more valuable. Experts predict that in 2025, global demand for copper will grow by about 2.9%.

Higher copper prices can make products more expensive. For example, the cost of electrical wiring, batteries, and even home construction may rise if copper stays expensive. Many industries rely on stable copper prices to keep production costs low.

The U.S. dollar also influences copper prices. Recently, the dollar index dropped to 103.6, making copper more expensive for international buyers. This, combined with uncertainty about U.S. economic growth, has contributed to market volatility.

China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is also playing a role. A positive economic outlook in China has supported copper demand. Lower inventories and increased construction projects have further pushed up prices. 

Additionally, China’s government is investing heavily in infrastructure and clean energy, further increasing the need for copper.

The Role of Green Energy in Copper Demand

One of the biggest drivers of copper demand is the green energy sector. Copper is used in solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicle batteries. As countries push for more renewable energy, demand for copper is expected to keep growing.

For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that demand for copper from renewable energy projects will double by 2030. This will put even more pressure on copper supplies, potentially leading to further price increases.

According to IEA data, global refined copper demand could grow from 26 million tonnes in 2023 to around 40 million tonnes by 2050 in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. 

  • In 2023, renewables and EVs accounted for about 25% of global refined copper demand. By 2030, this share could rise to about 45% in an accelerated NZE scenario. EV-related copper demand could increase more than twelvefold, from 2% of global demand in 2023 to 12-13% by 2050.
copper demand outlook IEA
Source: IEA Report

However, the IEA warns of a significant supply gap after 2025. Mining output may struggle to keep up with demand. 

By 2030, there could be a 4.5 million-tonne deficit in primary copper supply under the NZE scenario. This highlights the need for increased investment in mining and recycling​.

copper supply projection IEA
Source: IEA Report

Future Outlook: Will Copper Prices Keep Rising?

Experts are divided on what comes next. J.P. Morgan predicts that the global copper supply deficit will grow, pushing prices even higher. The bank expects copper to reach an average price of $11,000 per metric ton by 2026

The bank also expects China’s copper demand growth to slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, posing a key risk to market tightening.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, down from 124,000 metric tons in November. Citi has anticipated a 25% tariff on copper imports by late 2025 under Trump’s executive order.

Meanwhile, ANZ suggests that if the U.S. fully implements its 25% tariff, copper prices will climb further as trade flows shift.

Some analysts believe copper prices could rise by more than 75% in the next 2 years. However, if the U.S. economy slows down, copper demand could weaken. Investors are watching key economic indicators, such as job reports and inflation data, to understand where the market is headed.

Last year, copper faced a supply shortage, and demand is expected to rise even more with the growth of EVs, where copper plays a crucial role.

BHP forecasts a 70% increase in global copper demand, surpassing 50 million tonnes per year by 2050. The copper market could expand at an average annual rate of 2%, driven by the shift to clean energy and advanced technology.

copper demand projection 2050 BHP
Source: BHP

A mix of political, economic, and supply factors is driving copper prices. The potential for a 25% U.S. tariff has already shaken the market, while declining inventories and strong demand continue to support higher prices. 

As global trade shifts and supply chains adjust, copper remains a key material to watch in the coming months.

The post Copper Crunch! How Trump’s Tariffs and Supply Shocks Drive Prices Up appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

Published

on

The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

Published

on

Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

Published

on

Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com