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Lithium Prices Crash Below $10K, Hitting a 4-Year Low: Will the Market Rebound?

The lithium market is experiencing a major price decline due to rising supply and weaker demand. In February 2025, the lithium carbonate CIF North Asia price fell below $10,000 per metric ton, dropping 4.5% to $9,550/t. This is the lowest level since February 2021. Analysts expect further cuts in production throughout 2025 to balance the market.

The price drop is mainly due to strong production in Chile and a post-holiday demand slowdown in China. Also, new lithium projects in Mali and Argentina boost global supply. This adds to the downward pressure on prices.

Why Are Lithium Prices Falling?

Several key factors contribute to the ongoing decline in lithium prices, ranging from oversupply to shifting market dynamics and policy changes.

Oversupply Floods the Market

Lithium production has been growing rapidly. In January 2025, Chile’s lithium exports increased by 22.8% month over month, flooding the market with additional supply.

Mali’s new lithium mines, Bougouni and Goulamina, will boost lithium output to 40,528 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025. This accounts for 2.7% of the global supply.

Additionally, Argentina’s Ganfeng Lithium Group has started production at the Mariana brine project, adding another 17,420 metric tons of LCE annually. Argentina is now the top producer in the Lithium Triangle. This area includes Bolivia and Chile, which hold some of the richest lithium reserves in the world.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence shows that the global weighted average price for lithium is dropping, as seen in the chart. This change reflects the increase in supply.

Lithium prices global weighted average
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

China’s Demand Woes

China, the world’s biggest buyer of lithium, saw a sharp decline in demand in early 2025. The Lunar New Year holidays slowed down industrial work. Many battery makers also postponed their purchases. This contributed to a 1.6% price drop for lithium carbonate in China, bringing it down to 76,100 yuan per metric ton by mid-February.

Additionally, the shift to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries—which require less lithium than traditional nickel-based batteries—is reducing lithium demand. Companies such as Tianqi Lithium and IGO Ltd. have already halted expansion at their lithium hydroxide refineries due to weaker market conditions.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said lithium prices soared to $81,375 per tonne in China by December 2022. This spike pushed consumers to look for alternatives, such as LFP batteries.

Policy Uncertainty in the U.S.

The future of North America’s lithium supply chain is unclear, adding to the market pressure. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 gave tax credits for lithium from Canada and other allied countries.

Now, it is being reconsidered. The Trump administration also suggested a 10% tariff on energy exports from Canada, like lithium. If enacted, these tariffs could make lithium imports more expensive, limiting investment in the sector.

Currently, only 44.7% of US lithium demand is met by domestic production, rising to 76.4% when including Canadian supply. Any policy changes could significantly impact lithium prices and availability in North America.

Cheaper Lithium Sparks a New EV Price War

The decline in lithium prices has had a notable impact on battery manufacturing costs. The falling prices are closely linked to trends in the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) markets.

Slower-than-expected EV adoption in key regions, driven by reduced government incentives and economic uncertainty, has weakened lithium demand. Automakers are adjusting production forecasts, leading to fluctuations in battery material purchases.

PEV sales
Source: S&P Global

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reports that cell prices have dropped 73% since 2014. This decline comes from higher production volumes, new technology, and lower raw material costs. These factors let battery makers cut prices.

However, lower costs have made EVs cheaper. This could increase demand over time as forecasted below. Yet, the current oversupply of lithium makes it hard for producers to stay profitable.

global lithium carbonate equivalent demand 2017-2027

How the Industry Is Reacting to the Lithium Slump

The prolonged decline in lithium prices has led to significant industry reactions. The industry is responding to the ongoing slump with various strategies aimed at stabilizing the market. Big producers like Albemarle and SQM plan to cut back production. This move aims to stop further price drops. 

Some mining companies are delaying new projects, while others are cutting costs to remain profitable in the face of lower revenues. Smaller lithium miners are having a tough time. Those without strong financial support are struggling the most. Some have had to stop operations or look for mergers to survive.

In December 2024, Rio Tinto acquired Arcadium Lithium for €6.2 billion, consolidating its position in the global lithium market. This acquisition occurred amid an excess supply and significantly lower prices since their peak in 2022.

Despite these challenges, major mining companies expect lithium demand to rise in the next decade. This growth will be fueled by the shift toward electric transportation and renewable energy storage.

However, the oversupply is causing problems for smaller companies. Some have cut back or stopped their operations. Cutting subsidies in key countries has slowed EV sales growth. This means that only a production cut may raise lithium prices in the medium term.

Looking Ahead – When Will Lithium Prices Recover?

Despite the current challenges, there is optimism about the future of the lithium market. Industry analysts foresee a future increase in lithium demand, potentially leading to a market shift by the early 2030s, driven by infrastructure projects and the growth of green technology. Notable investments include Exxon Mobil and Tesla, seeking to capitalize on future lithium needs.

Goldman Sachs Research estimates the overall increase in data center power consumption from AI to be 200 terawatt-hours per year between 2023 and 2030. As AI use and high-performance computing grow, the need for lithium-ion batteries will rise. These batteries are key for backup power in big computing facilities.

Notably, S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the oversupply will make it hard for lithium prices to go up until the next decade.

lithium price forecast
Source: S&P Global

The lithium market is facing oversupply and falling prices. This is due to higher global production, reduced demand from key markets like China, and uncertainties in major economies.

While these factors present challenges in the short term, the anticipated growth in electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy storage solutions offers a positive outlook for lithium demand in the long run. Industry stakeholders must navigate these complexities carefully, balancing current market realities with future opportunities.

The post Lithium Prices Crash Below $10K, Hitting a 4-Year Low: Will the Market Rebound? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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