Climate-vulnerable countries are desperately trying to salvage a deal on adaptation after nine days of stalemate.
The big-ticket item in Dubai is the framework for the global goal on adaptation (GGA), a two-year-long exercise to turn the vague provisions of the Paris Agreement into something more concrete. Many hope clear definitions and targets will unlock money for adaptation that has been chronically underfunded.
But the 134-strong group of developing nations known as the G77 is divided.
The hardliners are the Arab group led by Saudi Arabia and the like-minded developing countries (LMDC) spearheaded by China. They have refused to work on any text that does not explicitly mention “common but differentiated responsibilities”, four sources in the room told Climate Home. Putting that in would trigger an automatic rejection from developed countries.
The least developed countries and small island states are increasingly frustrated.
“We’ve invested so much time and energy in this process,” a negotiator from a vulnerable country told Climate Home. “We’re now facing a very scary scenario: either no decision at all or a take-it-or-leave-it text creating a very symbolic framework.”
Meanwhile the mitigation work programme has made negligible progress on long-term emissions cutting measures. Again, LMDC and Arab states engaged in what two negotiators described to Climate Home as “clear obstruction tactics”, moving one islander to tears.
Some negotiators and observers told Climate Home they fear adaptation is being held hostage to talks over a possible fossil fuel phase-out.
An LMDC spokesperson rejected that interpretation. “We’ve been negotiating in good faith,” they said. “These are substantive matters with groups wanting to reopen texts that have already been agreed.”
Technical negotiations are due to finish today, with text expected on the adaptation goal and bilateral carbon trading rules.
The latest headlines
- Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks
- Dutch initiative must turn the tables on fossil fuel subsidy reform – Ivetta Gerasimchuk, IISD
- To land fossil phase-out deal, rich nations must add fairness – Andreas Sieber, 350
Netherlands leads subsidy crackdown
Two months ago, thousands of climate activists braved water cannons to block a highway in Dutch capital The Hague in protest at fossil fuel subsidies.
Today, Dutch climate minister Rob Jetten announced twelve countries had signed up to his club to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies.
Those nations include nine Europeans – including France and Spain – Canada, Costa Rica and Antigua and Barbuda. Jetten said others are “sure” to join.
There have been many promises in the past on this, dating back to the G20 in Pittsburgh in 2009. So, IISD’s Ivetta Gerasimchuk writes, the follow-through is vital.
The countries have signed up to developing an agreed methodology and drawing up inventories of subsidies by Cop29. And an annual Cop dialogue on the issue.
Jetten tempered expectations, claiming that “half of all subsidies are tied up in international agreements” and therefore need cooperation to scrap.
And removing subsidies which make everyday things like driving, cooking and heating cheap can be unpopular. After a rise in the cost of driving sparked the “gilets jaunes” protests in 2018, French climate minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher is well aware of this.
She told the press conference today that this must work “for the planet of course” but also “for the people, for the economy, for the social equity and just transition”.
The only developing country minister present was Antigua and Barbuda’s Gaston Browne. He told Climate Home “we burn gasoline and diesel but even if even if it is more expensive that might very well serve as an incentive to go quickly to renewable energy”.
A network of at least 1900 bots on X (formerly Twitter) are promoting Cop28 in English and Arabic, according to analysis by Marc Owen Jones, professor at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Qatar. The bots praise the UAE and Cop president Sultan Al Jaber as climate heroes.
All mouth, no trousers – Analysis by Climate Action Tracker shows that from the flurry of pledges signed in the first week of Cop28, few have the “ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability” needed to keep align with 1.5C. Around a quarter of the emissions reductions promised are additional and achievable, it estimates.
Two conventions, one statement — For the first time, the UN climate and biodiversity conventions joined forces on a common agenda. China, as the presidency behind the Kunming-Montreal nature deal, cosigned a vague pledge with the UAE and 16 other countries to mobilise finance and align planning between nature and climate.
China backs phase-out? – China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua told Reuters that success at Cop28 will depend on whether countries can agree on phasing out fossil fuels. In a pre-Cop statement with the US, China fell short of calling for a phase out.
The post Cop28 bulletin: Adaptation stalemate jeopardises Cop28 outcome appeared first on Climate Home News.
Cop28 bulletin: Adaptation stalemate jeopardises Cop28 outcome
This is a republication of November’s edition of The Climate Agenda – a subscriber-only newsletter designed to keep you informed of the key events, negotiations and announcements happening every month. If you want to receive The Climate Agenda straight to your inbox at the start of each month, sign up as a subscriber today.
COP31 begins in one week, and we’ll have five specialist reporters on the ground in Antalya, Türkiye, bringing you every development as it happens. From the negotiations to leaders’ speeches and side events, we’ll be there to dissect what it all means for international climate policy on electrification, just transition, adaptation finance and much more.
Here’s what you need to know for November, why it matters and what to expect.
US midterm elections
Tuesday 3 November – United States
The geopolitical highlight for the first week of November is the US midterm elections, which will show whether American voters are in any mood to forgive President Donald Trump for failing to bring down the cost of living. From an energy perspective, his pro-oil and gas stance hasn’t led to cheaper prices for consumers, pushed up by the US-instigated Iran conflict. And his diesel deal with Russia won’t yet have made a difference at the pump.
The key issue for climate and energy policy is whether the Republicans hold onto their governing trifecta. If so, then expect continued dismantling of regulations that protect the environment, as well as strong backing for fossil fuel production. If the Democrats regain control of Congress, which polls suggest is possible, it could trigger a push to restore Biden-era clean energy tax credits, and support states wanting to restart mothballed wind and solar projects.
Data centres have been a hot-wire issue, with growing community opposition to their expansion – partly due to concerns over rising utility bills as the facilities gobble power. Whether Republicans or Democrats win Congress, both are likely to make tech firms pay for the extra electricity production they need, with the latter favouring renewable sources.
Governor races are also taking place in key states for climate issues, including Democrat-run California, which has used the courts to fight Trump’s attacks on clean energy.
Read more: National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN
Read more: The more Europe relies on the US for energy, the more it’s vulnerable to pressure by Trump
COP30 Deforestation and Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmaps
Tuesday 3 November – Brazil
Brazil is set to unveil two global roadmaps: one for transitioning away from fossil fuels, the other for ending deforestation.
The COP30 presidency promised them in the dying hours of the Belém summit last November as a last-minute fix to break a political impasse. Since then, it has been consulting with countries, experts and campaigners around the world to gather ideas and sketch out the elements to include in these blueprints.
Don’t expect the roadmaps to offer any new global targets or give direct instructions on what countries must do, either to cut fossil fuel production and consumption or better protect forests. Rather, Brazil has said the documents will identify barriers and priority actions, highlight existing mechanisms and present a range of options that can be adapted to different national contexts.
It remains unclear what will happen with the reports once they are delivered on Tuesday. At the Bonn talks last June, a group of European and small island nations called for the roadmaps to be brought into the official negotiations, warning that a one-off report won’t cut it. But such efforts would undoubtedly face stiff opposition from fossil fuel-producing nations that objected to drafting the energy transition roadmap within the formal UN process last year.
Read more: European, island states seek clear future for global roadmap to cut fossil fuels
Read more: COP30 roadmap to end deforestation will invite countries to draft domestic plans
Read more: What we need to see in the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels
UNEP Adaptation Gap Report
Wednesday 4 November – Nairobi, Kenya
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) will publish its annual assessment of how well the world is planning, implementing and – crucially – financing measures to cope with worsening climate impacts.
Past editions have made for grim reading. Last year’s report warned of a widening gap between what developing countries need for adaptation and what they can access. It estimated they will need $310–365 billion a year by 2035, which is 12 to 14 times current international flows. The report also found that a goal of doubling international public adaptation finance by 2025 was likely to have been missed.
This year’s edition will be closely watched with adaptation expected to be a big-ticket item at COP31. Governments are likely to discuss the specifics of a commitment to triple adaptation finance for developing nations by 2035, agreed at COP30 last year – particularly what the baseline for that pledge is. Negotiators will be debating how to track progress against the 59 indicators of the Global Goal on Adaptation.
Read more: Editor’s Desk: Nepal’s disaster has laid bare the world’s adaptation accountability gap
Read more: Bonn climate talks end in “gridlock” on adaptation and emissions-cutting
Read more: New data shows rich nations likely missed 2025 goal to double adaptation finance
COP31 Climate Conference
Monday 9 November – Friday 20 November – Antalya, Türkiye
The climate community’s attention turns this month to Antalya for the annual UN climate summit. From the outset, COP31 will have an unprecedented, and potentially explosive, set-up: Türkiye is COP president overseeing the non-negotiated Action Agenda, while Australia runs the negotiations.
Billed, once again, as an “implementation COP”, the talks come amid a global energy crisis largely sparked by the actions of the US government, which is not expected to show up on the Turkish Riviera. It is also the first COP in the era of climate overshoot, coming just weeks after the UN officially confirmed the 1.5C warming limit will be breached and set out a narrow pathway to bring temperatures back down to the most ambitious Paris goal.
Unlike most recent COPs, the formal negotiations lack a clear headline item. Countries are due to establish and define the scope of the Just Transition Mechanism agreed in Belém last year, including its rules, governance and possible funding arrangements. On adaptation, vulnerable countries want a clearer path to delivering last year’s pledge to triple finance by 2035 and to putting the new progress indicators to work on the ground.
Governments are also likely to clash over next steps on the transition away from fossil fuels, and especially over whether the mitigation work programme – the forum dedicated to emission-cutting measures – has any future beyond this year.
Notable events to look out for in Antalya:
Opening session (9 November): The summit kicks off with the customary first-morning plenary. After the usual pageantry from the host nation, negotiating blocs and individual countries will deliver statements setting out their stall for the next two weeks. Watch out for a potential fight over the summit’s agenda – perhaps on issues relating to finance and trade following submissions requesting additional items – also a COP tradition.
Electrification (10 November): On Energy Day, the Turkish presidency is expected to formally launch its flagship electrification pledge, revealing which countries have signed up. Signatories will voluntarily commit to raising electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, though the current text does not require that power to come from clean sources. There is also a question mark over whether and how this can be included in the political cover decision the COP co-hosts have said they will aim to produce.
Leaders Summit (11-12 November): Heads of state and governments will jet into town for the traditional high-level segment in the middle of the first week, where world leaders typically talk up their climate record, air their grievances and call for more action.
Relatively few powerful leaders are on the list this time. Brazil’s Lula is set for another star turn this year, fresh from his surprise election win in October. The UK’s Andy Burnham, Spain’s Pedro Sanchez and China’s vice-premier Ding Xuexiang are expected, alongside Türkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Australia’s Anthony Albanese. In addition, African and small island nations will feature prominently.
Our COP31 Briefing newsletter will offer a more in-depth preview of the talks later this week.
Read more: Early speakers’ list suggests few powerful leaders will attend COP31
Read more: COP31 electrification pledge leaves out clean power commitment
Read more: From Belém to Antalya – gains, gaps and challenges for a new Just Transition Mechanism
International Maritime Organization (IMO) Shipping Talks
Monday 23 November – Friday 4 December – London, United Kingdom
One year on from explosive talks in which Trump’s officials teamed up with Saudi Arabia to delay a deal to make the shipping industry greener, governments will gather on the banks of the Thames for another attempt to reach agreement.
The Net Zero Framework, provisionally agreed in October 2025, includes a series of emissions reduction targets for the owners of large ships along with penalties for not meeting them, rewards for doing so and measures to make the maritime transition fair.
The framework is likely to be either tweaked or radically rewritten so that it’s more acceptable to the US and Saudis. Brazil and Japan have submitted compromise proposals. Analysts find those will move shipping further away from being able to meet its climate goals.
There will be closed-door talks between November 23-27 and a second week of talks open to accredited media from November 30 to December 4. Agreement on a proposal, perhaps decided through a vote, is expected after long and technical negotiations. The shipping industry’s 3% share of the world’s emissions is at stake.
Read more: London talks raise hopes for green shipping deal
The post What’s on the climate calendar for November 2026? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Delegates will soon gather in the Turkish resort city of Antalya for UN climate negotiations, against a backdrop of war, energy crisis and climate extremes.
At COP31, nations will try to find agreement on various issues, including climate finance for developing countries and a global “just transition” towards a cleaner economy.
This summit is unusual due to its joint presidency, which means that Australia is leading the negotiations while Turkey hosts the conference.
Outside the formal negotiations, Turkey is also pushing its own priorities as part of a wider “action agenda”, including electrification, oceans and “green industrialisation”.
In order to track parties’ positions on key negotiating points and wider issues at COP31, Carbon Brief has analysed around 100 documents and captured them in the interactive table below.
The first column shows the countries and UN negotiating blocs, the second shows the topics up for debate and the third indicates specific issues within those topics.
The final column indicates the positions that the parties have expressed on each topic. These range from “priority” – meaning the party is likely to be pushing the issue – to “oppose”, meaning it is likely to push against it.
This is a “living document” that will be updated over the course of COP31.
Please get in touch if you would like to offer additions by emailing policy@carbonbrief.org.
Brief explanations of the key issues and jargon-filled language that permeate the talks can be found below the interactive table.