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At the end of the first year in which global average temperatures are almost certain to top the key threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial times, scientists have sounded the alarm about the extremes of climate and weather we’re already experiencing – and are warning things could get even more serious.

At the same time, they say it’s not too late both to limit the damage by phasing out planet-heating fossil fuels and doing more to protect communities from the dangers of worsening heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms.

After Cyclone Chido, France accused of neglecting climate threat to “fragile” Mayotte

In a report outlining their findings for 2024, researchers collaborating with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) and Climate Central projects said climate change had intensified 26 of the 29 weather events they studied during the year.

Those disasters killed at least 3,700 people and displaced millions – but are only a small sample of what was experienced on the frontlines of a warming world. They included severe floods in eastern Spain, hurricanes in the US, drought in South America’s Amazon rainforest, and flooding across West and Central Africa.

Source: "When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024" report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

Source: “When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024” report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

The scientists also found that people around the world experienced, on average, 41 extra days of dangerous heat in 2024 due to human-caused warming.

Friederike Otto, WWA’s lead and a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, said the “unrelenting suffering” could be alleviated if we stop burning coal, oil and gas, use renewable energy to power our economies instead, and adapt to climate impacts.

“The top resolution for 2025 must be transitioning away from fossil fuels, which will make the world a safer and more stable place,” she said in a statement.

Here are some key facts and figures from the report:

Heat: Too hot to handle

2024 is set to be the hottest year on record – again. The first six months saw record-breaking temperatures, extending a streak started in 2023 to 13 months. The world’s hottest day in history was recorded on July 22, while a day earlier more than 5 billion people were exposed to high temperatures made at least two times more likely due to climate change.

However, the scientists note that surpassing global warming of 1.5C for a one-year period, as expected for 2024, does not mean the Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting it to that level has failed, because that would require several years with temperatures above 1.5C. “However, it is a warning that we are getting dangerously close,” the report said.

Nine of our best climate change stories from 2024

The El Niño climate phenomenon, caused by warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, added some heat in the first half of this year, but rising emissions were the main culprit for so many record-shattering temperatures, it added.

The countries with the highest number of risky heat days were largely small island developing states (SIDS), accounting for 18 out of the top 20. Their residents – also threatened by rising sea levels and powerful storms – experienced more than 130 additional days of dangerous heat in 2024. SIDS, many of them highly indebted, pushed for more financial support for vulnerable countries at COP29 and were disappointed with the outcome.

Flooding: Be warned

The high heat levels of 2024 also translated into record-breaking downpours, as warmer air holds more moisture and hotter seas cause increased evaporation. As a result, devastating floods hit many places worldwide, from Dubai to Kathmandu and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul.

The scientists said their work this year highlighted how early warning – and acting on it – often makes the difference between life and death.

In September, for example, four days of record rainfall brought by Storm Boris flooded regions of Central Europe, but people were evacuated days in advance, reservoirs were drained and flood defences built up, meaning that less than 30 people lost their lives.

Source: "When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024" report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

Source: “When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024” report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

Meanwhile, floods in Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad were the deadliest event studied by WWA in 2024, with at least 2,000 people killed and millions displaced. The group found that if warming reaches 2C, which could happen as soon as the 2040s or 2050s, those regions could experience similar periods of heavy rainfall every year.

“Our studies continue to show the need to enhance preparedness for extreme weather to reduce loss of life and damages,” said Julie Arrighi, director of programmes at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “In 2025, it’s crucial that every country accelerate efforts to adapt to climate change.”

Storms: Blown away 

Scientists said that as the world and its oceans warm, a bigger share of the most powerful tropical cyclones are reaching category 3 or above (5 being the highest), with faster maximum wind speeds, heavier rainfall and much greater destructive potential.

Other shifts in tropical cyclones include storms strengthening faster, migrating towards the poles and moving more slowly over land, often leading to more severe impacts.

This year the typhoon-prone Philippines was hit by six consecutive storms in just a few weeks from mid-October to mid-November – including three classed as “super typhoons” – affecting 13 million people and killing more than 160. The likelihood of three or more major typhoons making landfall in the Philippines in a given year has increased by about 25% due to human-induced climate change, WWA  said.

Source: "When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024" report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

Source: “When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024” report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

Also this year, Hurricane Helene killed more than 230 people after extreme rainfall affected communities in the southern Appalachians, making it the deadliest hurricane to strike the mainland United States since Katrina in 2005.

Drought and wildfires: Drier – and more flammable

Rising temperatures make droughts worse by increasing water loss from soils through evaporation and plant transpiration.

In 2024, the Italian islands of Sicily and Sardinia suffered severe droughts that led to water rationing and huge losses of wheat crops. They were made 50% more likely by climate change, WWA’s study found.

As Earth dries out, countries fail to reach drought agreement

Persistent heat also intensified the devastating drought in the Amazon River Basin this year, provoking concerns about tree dieback in the world’s largest rainforest, which could release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming.

Regina Rodrigues, professor of physical oceanography and climate at Brazil’s Federal University of Santa Catarina, said worsening droughts might push the Amazon forest irreversibly into a drier state, reducing its moisture flow and ability to absorb and store carbon, as well as its biodiversity.

“All these critical processes are essential not only locally and regionally but also globally in order to maintain life as we know it. We are already witnessing some of these devastating consequences,” she warned.

Source: "When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024" report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central. 2024: A year of extreme heat and growing climate danger

Source: “When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024” report from World Weather Attribution & Climate Central

One study published in Nature by an international team this year warned that parts of the  Amazon may have already passed a safe boundary, and as much as half of the rainforest could hit this tipping point by 2050 unless deforestation – which harms the forest’s ability to hold water – is halted.

Hot and dry conditions also mean that if fires ignite in forests, the chances of the blazes spreading are much higher and they are far harder to control.

2024 was an extremely active year for wildfires, particularly in the Americas – from Chile and Brazil’s drought-hit Pantanal wetland to western Canada and the United States.

The report said smoke from the fires in North America impacted air quality across the region and as far away as Europe, with recent research suggesting the number of people dying due to inhaling smoke from wildfires is rising due to global heating.

(Reporting by Megan Rowling; editing by Mariel Lozada)

The post 2024: A year of extreme heat and growing climate danger appeared first on Climate Home News.

2024: A year of extreme heat and growing climate danger

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Climate Change

COP17: Key outcomes agreed at the UN biodiversity conference in Yerevan

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Countries have completed the first “global review” of their progress towards reversing nature loss by 2030 at the COP17 biodiversity talks in Yerevan, Armenia.

The review “notes with deep concern” that, unless action is “rapidly accelerated”, the goal to reverse nature loss and meet a set of 23 targets by 2030 “will not be achieved”.

It “urges” countries to accelerate action, including by “increased ambition in addressing the gaps”.

Much of the discussions in Yerevan focused on how to raise the necessary funds to help developing countries protect nature.

Some major economies pushed to expand the range of nations that are expected to provide finance, with countries agreeing at the end of the two weeks of talks that non-donors that want to contribute can “signal interest” before COP18.

This came after developed countries failed to meet a target to significantly ramp up nature finance over the last few years.

It also came as a landmark fund agreed at COP16 in Colombia to pay communities for the genetic resources derived from nature stands nearly empty two years on.

The Yerevan talks marked the halfway point of the “Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework” (GBF), the “Paris Agreement for nature” first made in 2022 and due to be achieved by 2030.

During the nearly 12-hour-long final plenary, countries voted for Quito, Ecuador, to host the COP18 nature talks, which will be held in 2028.

Countries managed to sign off on all the major negotiation texts, marking a stark contrast to COP16, which ran so far over time that the Colombian presidency lost “quorum”, forcing talks to resume in Rome months later. 

Below, Carbon Brief has detailed analysis of all of the key outcomes from COP17.

Formal negotiations

Finance

Finance, predictably, was at the heart of the discord and deadlock at the Yerevan talks.

At COP17, discussions on finance had to achieve several outcomes.

The first part – to take stock of biodiversity finance mobilised so far to meet the nature deal’s goals – fell under the global review.

As the global report noted, developed countries failed to meet their commitments to raise “at least $20bn a year by 2025” for nature. Delegates pointed to falling aid levels and a sharp 27% decline in environmental funding for the 2026-30 period.

The second part was to agree on how to mobilise resources for the next four years, to meet the GBF’s goals and targets.

Calls to “broaden the contributor base” of who pays to protect nature – and whether that should include emerging economies – became the most fraught element of the talks.

Eventually, countries agreed on what Switzerland described as a “super, mega-delicate” text. It hinged on major “political compromises”, with “no major winner or loser”, according to Kenya. 

Per the decision, countries that want to be included on a list of developed country donors can “signal interest” through bilateral, confidential consultations before COP18 and every alternate COP after.

Finally, countries also agreed on criteria to shape and resource a new, permanent financial mechanism to protect nature after 2030.

However, this did not immediately take the form of a new fund under the COP that biodiverse countries have demanded since 2022, deferring the mechanism’s institutional structure to COP18.

Resource mobilisation discussions at the GBF’s halfway mark were supposed to agree on how to close the “biodiversity finance gap” and to “increase resources from all sources” to “at least” $200bn per year by 2030, as set out in target 19 of the GBF.

The talks were largely dominated by a push, led by the JUSCANZ bloc of developed countries, to “broaden the contributor base”. This could see emerging economies, such as Qatar, China, Saudi Arabia and India, being added to the list of countries that pay to protect nature.

BlueSky post by Aruna Chandrasekhar (@arunacsekhar.bsky.social): "COP17 was supposed to be a nature finance stocktake, ramping contributions to "at least $30bn/yr" and sketching the bones of post-2030 nature funding. "Broadening the contributor base" was an outlier, appearing exactly once in the COP16 decision. Now it's the headliner."

Article 20 of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) states that developed countries “shall provide new and additional financial resources” to developing countries to meet the costs of implementing measures to protect nature. 

The second paragraph of Article 20 of the UN biodiversity convention. The text says: "The developed country Parties shall provide new and additional financial resources to enable developing country Parties to meet the agreed full incremental costs to them of implementing measures which fulfil the obligations of this Convention and to benefit from its provisions and which costs are agreed between a developing country Party and the institutional structure referred to in Article 21, in accordance with policy, strategy, programme priorities and eligibility criteria and an indicative list of incremental costs established by the Conference of the Parties. Other Parties, including countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy, may voluntarily assume the obligations of the developed country Parties. For the purpose of this Article, the Conference of the Parties, shall at its first meeting establish a list of developed country Parties and other Parties which voluntarily assume the obligations of the developed country Parties. The Conference of the Parties shall periodically review and if necessary amend the list. Contributions from other countries and sources on a voluntary basis would also be encouraged. The implementation of these commitments shall take into account the need for adequacy, predictability and timely flow of funds and the importance of burden-sharing among the contributing Parties included in the list."
The second paragraph of Article 20 of the UN biodiversity convention. Source: UN CBD

The text states that other countries – including emerging economies – may “voluntarily assume” these obligations to pay. However, it adds that this list of developed countries “shall” be reviewed periodically and amended “if necessary”.

The list was last amended in 2006.

(See this “jargon buster” which explains the specific meaning and legal weight of various terms and verbs used in UN formal documents.)

Discussions around this fraught subject had reached a dead end at intersessional talks this year, but resurfaced in Yerevan.

The first “non-paper” had four different options for expanding the contributor base. These ranged from using the World Bank’s country income groups “as a proxy” to identify high-income countries, to commissioning a study on the impacts of being included on the list.

By 21 October, the number of options swelled to eight, including two from Saudi Arabia and one from Peru.

Some countries “expressed concern” that certain options were based on a CBD secretariat study on “what constitutes a developed country”, Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported.

By the end of the first week, it was clear that the finance deadlock would have to go into informal ministerial consultations for any consensus to emerge.

At a press conference on 28 October, Christopher O’Sullivan, Ireland’s nature minister and representing the EU delegation, told Carbon Brief:

“Our position isn’t that we want to pull back in terms of contributing…but it’s been 20 years since that list was added to, times have changed and there are new realities. We just simply want those new realities reflected. I don’t fully understand why there’s so much opposition to that.”

The EU chose not to comment on which countries it would like to see on that list.

Lim Li Ching from the Third World Network, meanwhile, called the push for others to “assume the obligations” of developed countries “sheer hypocrisy”, adding that any country could make a voluntary contribution. She told Carbon Brief:

“At a forum like the CBD, this linking of income status with finance does not take into account where historical and current responsibilities lie. If you want to generate more funding for biodiversity, let’s look at sovereign debt burdens and rules, which are inequitable for developing countries. But if you can fund wars, and provide resources for your defence industry, then you know where the priorities are.”

On 29 October – at a plenary meant to adopt final texts for the most contentious subjects – Norway’s Gaute Hanssen announced that resource-mobilisation discussions would go into a smaller “friends of the chair” meeting.

Facilitated by Carolina Caceres from Canada and Imèn Meliane from Tunisia, the meeting would discuss the most contentious elements of a draft decision that had swelled to 112 brackets, denoting areas of disagreement on specific details in the text.

While the meeting was open to all, countries that were called to be present included Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, the EU, Fiji, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the UK.

At the same time, a “non-paper” text by finance and environment ministers laid out countries’ red lines and compromises.

A key paragraphs from a minister’s non-paper on nature finance published on 29 October. The text says: "Operative paragraphs (the following paragraphs would replace options A-H in the CRP) 1. Emphasizes the importance of accelerating the implementation of the strategy for resource mobilization for the period 2025–2030; 2. Invites Parties not on the list of developed country Parties and other Parties that may voluntarily assume the obligations of the developed country Parties as adopted in Decision VIII/18, in accordance with paragraph 2 of Article 20 of the Convention, to indicate to the Secretariat their interest in being included in the corresponding list established in accordance with that Article and invites Parties to provide their views on improving the modalities and timing of such invitations;"
A key paragraphs from a minister’s non-paper on nature finance published on 29 October. Source: UN CBD

At the end of COP17, countries welcomed a final compromise text, with Kenya thanking the “strong women” co-chairs who strove to strike a “delicate” balance.

China, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and Fiji cautioned against any further interventions, with Brazil warning: “If we open this text, we will never close it again.”

While the final decision “recognises” that “contributions from more parties would improve the mobilisation” of biodiversity finance, it steered away from issuing criteria to expand the list of donor countries.

The text makes it clear that no additions to the list would be made without inviting and confidentially consulting with interested countries, to secure their explicit consent.

Instead, the CBD secretariat “invites” countries keen to be on the list and “assume the obligations” of developed countries to “signal interest” before COP18 and at every alternate COP thereafter.

At the same time, developing countries can contribute to meeting the GBF and biodiversity convention’s goals on a “voluntary basis”, with contributions not implying inclusion on the list.

A negotiator for China told Carbon Brief at the closing plenary:

“We welcome this balanced document. It was a very long discussion that has gone [on] since [2022 nature talks in] Nairobi. But actually this time, there were a lot of sensitive issues, [there were] a lot of critical things we didn’t open in the contact groups; it mainly went to the high-level discussion.”

The decision also establishes a financial mechanism for nature funding after 2030 under the governance of the COP, a key ask from developing countries.

However, it defers decisions on what form this mechanism would take – whether this would be a new fund or based on existing arrangements – until COP18.

Oscar Soria at the Common Initiative told Carbon Brief that the decision on the financial mechanism leaves things “very open”, with “no movement” towards a new fund or money and no upgrades to existing funding arrangements.

The text acknowledges the links between debt and biodiversity eight times, mentioning how debt-related instruments can be included in biodiversity plans, but does not go further.

“It is almost as if the debt studies they called for at COP16 didn’t happen,” said Soria, who had earlier flagged serious methodological issues with the first-ever COP-commissioned report on debt and biodiversity. 

Global review