The energy world is changing fast, yet not fast enough to protect the planet from dangerous warming. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025, released at the start of COP30 in Brazil, lays out three futures for global emissions. These scenarios show how close — or far — the world is from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The findings are sobering, but they also give countries clear signals on where action must accelerate.
The IEA makes one point very clear: 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded, and for the first time, global temperatures stayed above 1.5°C across the entire year. The last decade was also the hottest in history. This puts huge pressure on countries as they update their national climate plans at COP30.
Yet the IEA also stresses something important — none of its scenarios are forecasts. They are pathways, and the direction we take still depends on policy choices made today.
A World on a Hotter Track: What the IEA’s Scenarios Show
The IEA’s three major scenarios outline different ways the global energy system could evolve. Two reflect today’s conditions. The third shows what it would take actually to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Current Policies Scenario (CPS): The Dangerous Path
This scenario assumes governments stop at policies already written into law. No new climate pledges. No new incentives. No strengthened targets.
Under this path:
- Coal use falls only slightly.
- Oil and gas demand have been rising for decades.
- Global energy-related emissions stay close to 2024 levels all the way to 2050.
The result is alarming. Global warming will hit 2°C by around 2050 and reach 2.9°C by 2100, and temperatures will still be rising. The IEA even warns there is a 5% chance of hitting 4°C, a level associated with extreme climate disruptions and irreversible tipping points.
The CPS was removed after 2020 because it seemed unrealistic in a world trying to cut emissions. But political pressure, especially from the Trump administration, pushed the IEA to bring it back. Its return shows how vulnerable global climate ambition can be when big economies shift direction.
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Better, but Still Off-Track
This scenario reflects what governments say they plan to do — but not what they have legally locked in.
Here:
- Emissions peak within a few years.
- They fall slightly to 35.2 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2035.
- Advanced economies and China reduce emissions.
- But developing economies emit more as energy demand rises.
Even with these changes, the STEPS pathway still results in 2.5°C of warming by 2100. This is far above the Paris goal of “well below 2°C” and nowhere near keeping warming under 1.5°C. The IEA notes that this year’s STEPS outcome is worse than last year’s due to slower clean energy progress and higher expected coal use.
Net Zero by 2050 Scenario (NZE): The Only Path that Stabilizes the Climate
Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, often called the NZE, shows what a 1.5°C-aligned future would require. It is the only pathway that eventually brings warming back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
But the challenge has grown sharply. Because real-world emissions remain high, the NZE scenario now includes:
- a higher and longer overshoot of the 1.5°C limit
- warming peaks around 65°C mid-century and slowly declines
Large-Scale Carbon Removal Technologies: The Saviour
The only way to return below that threshold later this century is to combine deep emissions cuts with large-scale carbon removal technologies. These technologies remain expensive and unproven at the scale required.
So the IEA emphasizes that countries must do everything possible to limit the overshoot by cutting emissions faster now. Notably, in the NZE pathway, global emissions fall by more than half by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050.
By the end of the century, carbon removal technologies would need to eliminate nearly four gigatonnes of CO₂ each year to bring temperatures back down.
A Fossil Peak Nears as Clean Energy Surges — but the World Still Falls Short
The IEA shows the energy system shifting, with coal already at or near its peak and oil expected to peak around 2030, though its decline will be slower than once expected. Gas demand levels off around 2035, but at a higher baseline than earlier forecasts, revealing how deeply rooted fossil fuels remain in the global mix.
At the same time, clean energy is rising fast. Solar capacity could more than triple by 2035, wind is set to nearly triple, and nuclear expands by close to 40 percent. Renewables will even overtake oil as the largest energy source by the early 2040s. Yet the world is still not moving fast enough. Under stated policies, renewable capacity reaches about 13,700 gigawatts by 2035, far short of the roughly 19,600 gigawatts required under the net-zero pathway.
Global Carbon Emissions: Peaks and Plateaus
Both IEA scenarios point to sustained high emissions, though at different levels. In the CPS, global energy emissions stay near 2024 levels through 2050, as small coal reductions are offset by rising oil and gas use. In the STEPS, emissions peak soon, drop to 35.2 gigatonnes by 2035, and decline slowly to 2050.
Reductions in advanced economies and China are balanced by rising emissions in developing regions. The gap between CPS and STEPS comes mainly from higher coal emissions, slower industrial efficiency, and delayed adoption of electric and efficient vehicles.
All in all, this gap underscores the need to accelerate clean energy deployment to align with global climate goals.
Why COP30 Matters More Than Ever
With the world heating faster than expected and the 1.5°C threshold already breached annually, COP30 becomes a turning point. The IEA’s outlook directly shapes negotiations because it:
- Shows the world is far off-track.
- Highlights the widening gap between political promises and real action.
- Makes clear that overshoot is now unavoidable.
- Warns that delay will force much heavier reliance on expensive CO₂ removals later.
At COP30, countries need to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The IEA warns that current NDCs do not reflect the full potential of national policies or domestic clean energy momentum. In other words, many countries are doing more at home than they are willing to commit to on paper.
COP30 is a chance to fix this gap.
What Can Be Done to Get on Track? The IEA’s Priority Actions
The message is clear: the world is not on track, and the window to avoid the worst climate impacts is shrinking. Still, the IEA shows that meaningful progress is underway.
It highlights several actions that could quickly bring global emissions closer to the NZE path. The world needs faster renewable energy deployment, stronger energy efficiency improvements, and large reductions in methane emissions from the energy sector.
Electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry has to accelerate, and sustainable fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen must expand significantly. These steps are well understood, often cost-effective, and achievable with current technology. What remains missing is the political will to scale them up at the speed required.
With COP30, countries certainly have an opportunity to match ambition with action and take decisive steps toward a safer climate future.
The post What the IEA’s New Scenarios Mean for the Global Climate — and for COP30 appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Nasdaq has backed one of the first carbon removal credit deals licensed under European Union rules. The project is based in Stockholm and is designed to generate high-quality carbon removal credits under a formal EU framework.
This marks a key shift. For years, carbon markets have relied on voluntary standards with mixed credibility. Now, the European Union has developed a regulated system to define what counts as a valid carbon removal. This move aims to build trust and attract large investors into a market that is still in its early stages.
The deal shows growing interest from major companies. It also reflects rising demand for reliable ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Inside the Stockholm Carbon Removal Project
The removal project is run by Stockholm Exergi. It uses a process called BECCS, or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This method burns biomass, such as wood waste and agricultural residues, to produce heat and electricity. At the same time, it captures the carbon dioxide released and stores it underground.
The captured CO₂ will be transported and stored deep beneath the North Sea in rock formations. Over time, it will turn into solid minerals. This makes the carbon removal long-lasting and more secure than many nature-based solutions.
The facility is expected to start operating in 2028. Once active, it will generate carbon removal credits that companies can buy to balance their remaining emissions.
Beccs Stockholm is one of the world’s largest carbon removal projects. In its first ten years, the project could remove about 7.83 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. This makes it a key tool for helping the European Union reach climate neutrality by 2050.
The project also aims to scale carbon removal by building a full CCS value chain in Northern Europe and supporting a growing market for negative emissions credits.
This project is important because it is one of the first to follow the EU’s new carbon removal certification rules. These rules define how carbon removal should be measured, verified, and reported. They also aim to reduce risks like double-counting and weak accounting.
EU Certification: Building Trust in a Fragile Market
The European Commission has introduced a framework, also called Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming (CRCF) Regulation, to certify carbon removal activities. This includes technologies like BECCS, direct air capture with carbon storage, and biochar.
The goal is to create a trusted system that investors and companies can rely on. It also established the first EU-wide certification framework for carbon farming and carbon storage in products, not just removals.
Until now, the voluntary carbon market (VCM) has faced criticism. Concerns about transparency and “greenwashing” have made some companies cautious. Many buyers want stronger proof that credits represent real and permanent carbon removal.
The EU framework tries to solve this problem. It sets clear rules for:
- Measuring how much carbon is removed.
- Verifying results through independent checks.
- Ensuring long-term storage of CO₂.
This structure may help standardize the market. It could also make carbon removal credits easier to compare and trade across borders. The Commission states that the goal of having the framework is:
“to build trust in carbon removals and carbon farming while creating a competitive, sustainable, and circular economy.”
Corporate Demand Is Growing—but Still Limited
Large companies are starting to invest in carbon removal. However, the market remains small compared to what is needed.
One major buyer is Microsoft. It currently holds about 35% of all global carbon removal credits, making it a dominant player in the market. In fact, it is responsible for 92% of purchased removal credits in the first half of 2025.
Other companies, including Adyen, a Dutch payments provider, have also joined the Stockholm project. These early buyers aim to secure a future supply of high-quality carbon credits as demand grows.
Ella Douglas, Adyen’s global sustainability lead, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal:
“This project does exactly that [“catalytic impact” to the VMC] while also building key market infrastructure in collaboration with the European Commission.”
Still, many firms remain cautious. Carbon removal technologies are often expensive and not yet proven at a large scale. Some companies also worry about reputational risks if projects fail to deliver real climate benefits.
This creates a gap. Demand is rising, but the supply of trusted credits is still limited.
- SEE event: Carbon Removal Investment Summit 2026
A Market Set for Rapid Growth
Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook for carbon removal is strong. Estimates suggest the market could reach $250 billion by mid-century, according to MSCI Carbon Markets.
Several factors drive this growth:
- First, global climate targets require large-scale carbon removal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the world may need to remove around 10 billion metric tons of CO₂ per year by 2050 to limit warming.
- Second, many companies have set net-zero goals. These targets often include removing emissions that cannot be avoided, especially in sectors like aviation, shipping, and heavy industry.
- Third, new regulations are pushing companies to disclose and manage emissions more clearly. This increases demand for credible carbon solutions.
However, the current supply falls far short of what is needed. Only a small share of the required carbon removal credits has been developed or sold so far.
Balancing Removal and Emissions Cuts
While carbon removal is gaining attention, experts stress that it cannot replace emissions reductions. Removing carbon from the atmosphere is often more expensive and complex than avoiding emissions in the first place.
Groups like the European Environmental Bureau warn that over-reliance on credits could delay real climate action. They argue that companies should set separate targets for reducing emissions and for removing carbon.
The EU framework reflects this concern. It treats carbon removal as a tool for addressing residual emissions, not as a substitute for cutting pollution at the source. This distinction is important. It helps ensure that carbon markets support, rather than weaken, overall climate goals.
From Concept to Market Infrastructure
The Stockholm project marks a turning point for carbon removal. It shows how rules, strong verification, and corporate backing can bring structure to a fragmented market.
With support from players like Nasdaq, carbon removal is moving closer to becoming a mainstream financial asset. At the same time, the European Union’s certification system is setting the foundation for a more credible and scalable market.
The path ahead remains complex. Technologies must scale. Costs must fall. Trust must grow. But the direction is clear.
Carbon removal is no longer a niche idea. It is becoming a key part of the global climate economy, with the potential to shape investment flows for decades to come.
The post Nasdaq Invests in First EU-Certified Carbon Removal Credits from Stockholm Exergi appeared first on Carbon Credits.
The nuclear energy industry is entering a new phase of transformation. This shift is no longer just about building reactors—it is about building them faster, smarter, and more efficiently.
A recent breakthrough led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Everstar, and Aalo Atomics, highlights that AI tools can streamline the nuclear regulatory process.
AI and DOE’s Genesis Mission: Breaking Bottlenecks in Nuclear Energy Deployment
The work supports President Trump’s Genesis Mission, a national initiative aimed at driving a new era of AI-accelerated innovation and discovery. The mission focuses on using advanced technologies like AI to solve critical national challenges, from energy to healthcare and beyond.
Under the Genesis Mission, DOE recently announced $293 million in competitive funding to tackle twenty-six pressing science and technology challenges, including one dedicated to speeding up nuclear energy deployment.
Rian Bahran, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Reactors. said,
“Now is the time to move boldly on AI-accelerated nuclear energy deployment,” “This partnership, combined with the President’s orders, represents more than incremental ‘uplift’ improvements. It has the potential to transform how industry prepares its regulatory submissions and deploys nuclear energy while upholding the highest standards of safety and compliance.”
Simply put, from licensing to construction and operations, AI is now helping eliminate long-standing bottlenecks.
Faster Nuclear Licensing with Advanced Tools
The DOE’s recent announcement is a big step in modernizing nuclear regulation. Normally, preparing licensing documents for nuclear reactors is slow and complicated. It requires reviewing thousands of pages of technical data and making sure everything meets strict rules.
This shows how AI can make nuclear licensing faster and more accurate, helping advanced reactors reach the market sooner. Here’s how AI is simplifying this usually long and complex process.
Everstar’s Gordian AI: Streamlining Nuclear Licensing with AI
Everstar, an NVIDIA Inception startup, is transforming nuclear licensing with its Gordian AI platform built on Microsoft Azure. Recently, the team used Gordian to convert a safety analysis document into a format aligned with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing requirements.
For instance, a 208-page licensing document that normally takes four to six weeks to generate was completed in just one day, with AI automatically identifying missing or incomplete data.
Gordian is designed for nuclear-grade technical work. Unlike generic AI, it combines physics-based models, engineering logic, and semantic ontology mapping to ensure outputs are verified, not inferred.
The platform offers several key features:
- Cross-references technical data automatically
- Identifies documentation gaps
- Maintains alignment with regulatory standards
- Provides a clear audit trail for every output
- Highlights its own limitations, allowing experts to focus on areas that need further attention
By accelerating document preparation while maintaining accuracy, Gordian reduces bottlenecks in nuclear licensing. Its capabilities build trust among regulators and industry stakeholders, making AI adoption safer, more practical, and scalable for the industry
Kevin Kong, CEO and Founder of Everstar, added:
“Nuclear is poised to solve today’s critical energy challenges,” said “We’re excited to partner with INL to meet the moment, working together to accelerate regulatory review and commercialization.”
Microsoft and NVIDIA Partnership: Building AI Infrastructure for Nuclear Energy
While the DOE demonstration focused on licensing, the broader transformation is being driven by a powerful collaboration between Microsoft and NVIDIA.
Together, they are developing a full-stack AI ecosystem designed specifically for nuclear energy. This platform combines cloud computing, simulation tools, and advanced AI models to streamline every phase of a nuclear project.
Key technologies in this ecosystem include:
- NVIDIA Omniverse for simulation and digital modeling
- NVIDIA CUDA-X and AI Enterprise for high-performance computing
- Microsoft Azure AI for data processing and automation
- Microsoft’s Generative AI tools for permitting and documentation
This integrated system enables developers to manage complex workflows in a unified environment. Instead of working with disconnected tools and datasets, teams can now operate within a single, AI-powered framework.
As a result, nuclear projects become more efficient, transparent, and predictable.
Carmen Krueger, Corporate Vice President, US Federal, Microsoft, further added:
“Our collaborations with DOE, INL, and across the industry are demonstrating how we can effectively bring secure, scalable AI technologies to solve key energy challenges and achieve the broader national and economic security goals envisioned by the Department’s Genesis Mission.”
Aalo Atomics: Cutting Permitting Time and Costs with AI
One of the most compelling real-world examples of AI impact comes from Aalo Atomics.
By leveraging Microsoft’s Generative AI for Permitting solution, Aalo has achieved dramatic improvements in project timelines. The company reported:
- A 92% reduction in permitting time
- Estimated annual savings of $80 million
These results show how AI can address one of the biggest challenges in nuclear development—delays caused by regulatory complexity.
Permitting often takes years and requires extensive documentation. However, AI can automate much of this work, allowing teams to focus on critical decision-making rather than repetitive tasks.
For Aalo, the value goes beyond speed. The technology also improves confidence in project execution by ensuring that all documentation is consistent, complete, and aligned with regulatory expectations.
This video demonstrated further details:
AI-Powered Nuclear Lifecycle: From Design to Operations
The impact of AI is not limited to licensing. It extends across the entire lifecycle of a nuclear plant. In the blog post, written by Darryl Willis, Corporate Vice President, Worldwide Energy and Resources Industry of Microsoft, explained how AI can help nuclear in a broader context.
- Design and Engineering Optimization: AI and digital twins allow engineers to simulate reactor designs in real time. This enables faster iteration and better decision-making. Developers can reuse proven design patterns and instantly evaluate how changes affect performance, safety, and cost.
- Licensing and Permitting Automation: Generative AI handles document drafting, data integration, and gap analysis. It ensures that applications are complete and consistent, reducing delays during regulatory review. This allows experts to focus on safety assessments instead of administrative tasks.
- Construction and Project Delivery: Advanced simulations now include time and cost dimensions. These 4D and 5D models allow developers to track progress, predict delays, and avoid costly rework. AI also enables real-time monitoring, ensuring that construction stays on schedule and within budget.
- Predictive maintenance and Plant Performance: Once a plant is operational, AI continues to add value. Predictive maintenance systems can detect issues early, reducing downtime and improving reliability. Digital twins provide continuous insights into plant performance, helping operators maintain optimal efficiency.
Why AI Is Critical for Scaling Nuclear Energy
Global electricity demand is rising fast, driven by digital growth and electrification. At the same time, countries need clean, reliable power to cut emissions. Nuclear energy can meet this need, but slow and complex processes have held it back.
AI is changing that. It speeds up licensing by automating documentation, improving accuracy, and reducing manual work. As a result, projects can move forward much faster without compromising safety.
In addition, AI connects data across design, permitting, construction, and operations. This improves efficiency, reduces errors, and makes timelines more predictable.
In short, AI removes key bottlenecks, helping nuclear energy scale faster to meet growing global demand. Most significantly, DOE’s approach aligns with growing global efforts to modernize energy infrastructure.
And partnerships with tech giants like Microsoft and NVIDIA will only accelerate the pace of innovation—and shape the future of global energy.
The post AI Solutions from Microsoft and NVIDIA Power DOE’s Nuclear Energy Genesis Mission appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Climate change is not only a physical threat, but it also affects the world’s economy. A major new study published in the journal Nature on March 25, 2026, puts a clear number on this impact. It finds that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the United States caused about $10.2 trillion in total economic damage worldwide between 1990 and 2020. This makes the U.S. the largest single contributor to climate-related economic loss over that period.
The study shows that emissions slow economic growth in many countries. Rising temperatures cut productivity, lower output, and hurt long-term economic performance around the globe.
Marshall Burke, the lead author of the study, remarked:
“If you warm people up a little bit, we see very clear historical evidence, you grow a little bit less quickly. If you accumulate those effects over 30 years, you just get a really large change by the end of 30 years. It’s like death by a thousand cuts. And you have people being harmed who did not cause the problem, and that feels just fundamentally unfair.”
The researchers focused on carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas. They used data on how temperature affects economic activity and then linked that to how much CO₂ different countries have emitted since 1990. This method links climate science to real economic results, including slower growth, lower productivity, and smaller national outputs.
Counting the Dollars: $10 Trillion in U.S.-Linked Damage
One of the study’s central findings is striking. From 1990 to 2020, U.S. emissions likely caused around $10.2 trillion in global economic damage. This means that warming linked to U.S. emissions has reduced economic production across many countries. The study links these impacts to heat’s long-term effects on labor, agriculture, and overall economic growth.
The damage is not confined to other nations. Roughly 30% of that $10.2 trillion figure is estimated to have occurred within the United States itself. In other words, U.S. emissions have slowed economic growth at home as well as abroad. The remaining impacts are spread across the global economy.
The researchers found that U.S. emissions led to about $500 billion in damage in India and around $330 billion in Brazil during that time. These figures show how carbon released in one area can affect economies far away.
A New Framework for Loss and Damage
The Nature study introduces a new framework for assessing what scientists call “loss and damage.” This term refers to harms that cannot be prevented by reducing emissions or avoided through adaptation alone.
The study uses economic data and climate models. It tracks how temperature changes over the years impact economic output.
- To put the numbers into context: one tonne of CO₂ emitted in 1990 is estimated to have caused about $180 in global economic damages by 2020.
But that same tonne is projected to cause an additional $1,840 of cumulative damage by 2100, as warming continues and its effects compound over time. This highlights that past emissions still contribute to future economic harm.
The researchers highlight that these estimates focus on economic output, like goods and services. They do not account for all types of climate damage. They do not include costs from loss of life, health impacts, biodiversity collapse, cultural heritage losses, or many kinds of infrastructure damage. These excluded impacts could raise the true total cost of climate change even further.
The Social Cost of Carbon Revisited
This study is part of a broader scientific effort to understand the economic impacts of climate change. Climate and economic models show that rising temperatures are already slowing economic growth. If emissions stay high, this slowdown will get worse in the future.
Analyses by major international institutions and research groups project that climate change could reduce global GDP by a significant percentage by mid-century. This is compared to scenarios with strong mitigation, though exact figures vary by method.
The concept of estimating a “social cost of carbon” (SCC) — a monetary estimate of economic damage per tonne of CO₂ — has been used in policy analysis for years. It helps governments weigh trade-offs in climate policy. For example, they can decide how much to invest in emissions cuts versus adaptation.
However, traditional SCC estimates have been debated. They depend on assumptions about future growth, discount rates, and climate sensitivity. The Nature study advances this approach by tying economic outcomes directly to observed climate impacts.
Economists and climate scientists agree that warming impacts several areas. These include agricultural yields, labor productivity, energy demand, and health outcomes. These effects reduce economic output and increase costs for businesses and governments. The latest research makes these links more explicit by assigning dollar values to the historical impacts of emissions.
Equity and Global Responsibility
The research’s results also highlight important equity questions. Low-income countries often face bigger economic impacts compared to their emissions histories.
For example, nations with warmer climates and more fragile infrastructure may experience greater output losses due to temperature increases. These effects grow over time and can worsen existing development challenges.
At the same time, richer countries with higher historical emissions may take a larger share of responsibility for damage. The Nature study shows it is possible to calculate responsibility in monetary terms. However, turning those numbers into legal or financial obligations is still complex.
Remarkably, the paper also shows that climate damage can be linked to specific activities, individuals, and companies. Burning fossil fuels for long flights greatly adds to warming.
- Just one round-trip intercontinental flight each year for ten years can cause about $25,000 in global economic damage by 2100.
Bill Gates’ emissions stand out due to his frequent air travel and high energy use. These personal and business choices significantly contribute to his overall impact. Saudi Aramco, a top fossil fuel producer, has caused an estimated $3 trillion in climate-related economic damage worldwide since 1991.
Tail Risks and Future Costs
The researchers also point toward the future. It finds that future damages from past emissions are much larger than the losses already accrued.
Since CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for centuries, its warming effects — and the economic damages linked to them — will persist well beyond 2020. This “tail risk” means that the total cost of historical emissions could rise sharply over the rest of this century.
Climate risk is increasingly integrated into economic planning and finance. Governments, businesses, and international institutions are incorporating climate scenarios into investment decisions and risk models.
This includes assessing how rising temperatures may affect infrastructure costs, insurance markets, supply chains, and national budgets. Without strong mitigation and adaptation measures, these economic pressures are expected to grow.
A Shared Reality, Quantified
The Nature study offers a clear and data-based way to think about the economic harms of climate change. Emissions from the United States since 1990 have caused over $10 trillion in global economic damage. This includes harm in the U.S., India, and Brazil.
These findings do not assign legal liability. However, they provide a meaningful picture of how climate change affects the global economy in terms of the social costs of carbon. They show that the costs of climate impacts are measurable and significant.
As the world continues to adapt and respond to climate change, understanding these economic links will be crucial for policymakers, businesses, and communities.
The post $10 Trillion in Carbon Cost? How U.S. Emissions Hit the Global Economy appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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