Even the most ambitious national climate plans aimed at cutting emissions to meet the 1.5C global warming goal in the Paris Agreement often lack a vital ingredient for success: private investment.
With governments facing fiscal and political pressures, attracting private capital will be crucial for accelerating climate action in the coming years.
Yet many Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) still do not have the sector-specific plans, economic incentives, policy certainty, infrastructure investment and ongoing dialogue needed to break silos between the public and private sectors and bring more businesses on board.
“If you just have the high-level (NDC) target from the government in a vacuum, it’s not going to spur much business action,” said Greg Briner, senior manager for policy at the We Mean Business Coalition, which works with companies pushing for stronger climate action.
“But that target combined with … more specific policies and measures that get put in place as a result of that target-implementing process, or as a result of the NDCs, is where the magic starts happening,” he explained.
NDCs: late and inadequate
NDCs are voluntary climate action plans created by countries under the Paris Agreement. They include commitments such as expanding renewable energy, reducing fossil fuels, halting deforestation and other measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
First submitted in 2015 for the Paris Agreement, NDCs should be updated with more ambitious targets every five years, although some governments have not stuck to this timetable.
Last year, most countries missed an initial February deadline to finalise the latest round of plans, known as “NDCs 3.0” – and at least 50 countries, mainly developing nations, have still not done so.
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Although these national plans have helped drive emissions reductions in some sectors – including falling deforestation rates and greater investments in renewables – climate experts say progress remains far too slow to meet the Paris goals and urgent action is now needed.
Last November, the UN climate body projected that global emissions would fall by around 12% from 2019 levels by 2035, based on a preliminary assessment of new NDCs announced by countries that produce nearly 70% of the world’s greenhouse gases.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said countries should cut emissions far more rapidly, with a 60% drop by 2035 needed to limit global warming to 1.5C.
But for developing economies especially, the multi-billion-dollar costs associated with transitioning to greener energy systems and curbing their emissions are still a major barrier. Climate experts say governments and businesses need to move in step if NDC targets are to be achieved.
“There are positive actions going on but we need a significant ramping up. It’s not happening quickly enough,” said Briner. “It’s (about) building on these foundations that are being put in place.”
Nurturing the conditions for private investment
Last September, consumer goods giant Unilever published a report, entitled Bold Plans, Real Impact, examining how corporate climate transition plans and NDCs can support each other.
Among its recommendations, the report called for governments to provide clearer roadmaps for private-sector engagement. It also highlighted the need for stronger regulatory frameworks, market incentives, sector-specific transition pathways and integrated, economy-wide planning.
For businesses, the report recommended aligning their transition plans with national climate priorities, collaborating more closely with industry peers, strengthening monitoring and verification systems, and unlocking finance through public-private partnerships.
Comment: The missing piece in COP climate talks – market signals for adaptation
A year earlier, the We Mean Business Coalition published a similar report, Time to Deliver: Business Call to Action for Ambitious and Investible NDCs.
This report urged governments – particularly in the G20 economies – to unlock private investment through sectoral targets, clean energy expansion, energy efficiency measures, fossil fuel phase-outs and commitments to halt deforestation.
It also stressed the importance of translating climate targets into concrete policies, backed by national implementation strategies and coordination across ministries.
Another key recommendation was the need for more transparent and inclusive dialogue with businesses throughout the NDC process. Early consultation with companies, the report said, should be embedded into the development and implementation of NDCs to ensure that climate plans reflect commercial realities.
Briner of We Mean Business said the economics of decarbonisation have changed dramatically over the past two decades.
“Ten to 20 years ago, decarbonising and investing in clean energy and electrification was seen as nice-to-have and a more expensive option, but these days, it simply makes business sense,” he said, referring to recent geopolitical events in the Middle East that have roiled oil and gas markets, pushing up fossil fuel prices.
However, upfront costs for clean energy infrastructure remain a major hurdle. Governments therefore need to complement climate policies with investments, concessional loans, grants, subsidies and tax incentives to help reduce risks, Briner added.
“Globally, there are still significant subsidies going to fossil fuels in different forms,” he said. “If we could redirect some of those current incentives away from fossil fuels and into clean electrification and clean energy, then that would certainly help.”
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Brazil’s sector-specific climate planning
Brazil’s NDC targets include expanding renewable energy – which already accounts for nearly 45% of its energy mix – ending illegal deforestation and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
According to Briner, Brazil’s climate strategy – known as Plano Clima – offers an example of how governments can provide businesses with clearer implementation guidance.
Years in development, the initiative sets out how Brazil intends to meet its climate goals through a series of sectoral plans covering areas such as energy, transport and land use.
“They’ve put together some pretty detailed, impressive plans,” Briner said. “Those are the types of things that will influence business models and business decisions. It’s this more detailed second layer of setting out national plans which is of interest to business.”
Last year, a transport coalition of more than 50 associations, companies and academia put forward a plan to help reduce the sector’s emissions and attract more than $600 billion in green investments in Brazil.
The previous year, 55 companies operating in Brazil, including Natura, Nestle, Itau and Unilever, called for more ambitious NDCs and clearer implementation policies, as well as encouraging climate-friendly investment and private-sector involvement.
Unilever, for example, has a global goal to create a deforestation-free supply chain and is partnering with a leading supplier in Brazil to ensure that soybean oil used at its factory there is not linked to forest loss.
Cheaper capital, high-quality projects
Although Brazil has relatively sophisticated capital markets, high interest rates still make long-term, low-carbon investments difficult, said Natalie Unterstell, president of the Talanoa Institute, a Brazilian environmental think-tank.
To address this challenge, Brazil is scaling up Fundo Clima – its National Climate Change Fund – as a central part of its implementation strategy by offering cheaper financing at scale.
But Unterstell said the private sector also needs to demonstrate that it can develop and deliver high-quality, low-carbon projects.
“Making Brazil’s policies investable is about making sure cheaper capital meets a pipeline of real, high-quality projects,” she said by email.
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While many companies have announced climate commitments, investment decisions have not always followed, she added.
“What companies can do better is move from targets to investment: adopt robust transition plans, and integrate carbon risk into core financial decisions,” Unterstell said.
On the government side, the priority is to “fix the signals”, she added. That means ensuring Brazil’s regulated carbon market – which is due to start in 2027 for sectors including iron and steel, cement, and oil and gas – operates with clear rules, credible enforcement and no delays, while aligning public finance with climate goals and providing long-term policy certainty.
“At the moment, both sides are waiting for stronger signals from the other, hence breaking that co-ordination problem is key,” she said.
Indonesia’s challenge: bridging the finance gap
Like Brazil, Indonesia is home to large areas of rainforest, but its energy mix relies far more heavily on fossil fuels, with coal providing about a third of supply. In its NDCs, Indonesia has pledged to reduce emissions by 31.9% by 2030 compared with business-as-usual levels, or by 43.2% with international support, on the way to reaching net zero by 2060.
Yet despite being promised more than $20 billion in international financial support from donor governments and investors under its Just Energy Transition Partnership, Jakarta has decided to row back on a plan to close a key coal power station early, saying it will focus on shuttering older and dirtier plants first.
To attract private investment to help achieve its emissions goals, Indonesia must provide policy clarity and long-term certainty, said Fabby Tumiwa, executive director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform, an Indonesian think-tank.
Comment: Indonesia’s failing Just Energy Transition Partnership is a cautionary tale
“Any investor wants to understand the long-term risks of the country so that they can assess the risks properly and come up with a risk mitigation strategy. Uncertain policies basically make investors unable to mitigate the risks,” Tumiwa told Climate Home News.
“To make Indonesia’s climate policies investable for the private sector, the core task is to convert climate ambition into bankable, enforceable, risk-adjusted projects,” he said. “Investors do not only need targets; they need predictable revenue, credible off-takers, permits, grid access, currency-risk management and policy durability.”
Indonesia has estimated the investment needed to meet its NDC goals at more than $400 billion but has yet to clearly outline how businesses can directly contribute, said Egi Suarga, senior manager for climate at World Resources Institute Indonesia, a research organisation.
He said climate action should be framed as an investment opportunity rather than an economic burden.
Evolving policies and regulations
Over 100 Indonesian companies have adopted net-zero and are ready to ramp up decarbonisation given clear national guidance, according to the We Mean Business Coalition.
Indonesia’s Indika Energy is making heavy investments in renewable energy such as solar, while cement company Solusi Bangun Indonesia is also investing in cleaner energy, fuel efficiency and pushing better biodiversity management.
Meanwhile, Unilever’s climate transition plan states that the company is working with local government and environmental NGOs in Indonesia to protect and restore forests in Aceh and North Sumatra. It is also switching from natural gas to biomethane at its Indonesian sites.
One positive development, Suarga noted, is the creation of carbon pricing regulations aimed at attracting private finance, with an initial focus on the forestry sector.
“It can create a good climate for investors,” he said. “It doesn’t directly mention that this is for achieving the NDCs but there is no trade-off between development financing with environmental protections – so that’s a good start.”
Indonesia also needs stronger incentives and regulations for renewable energy, he added.
“We also have to think about other sectors now – like the energy sector and renewables,” Suarga said. “How can the government provide more incentives or facilitating regulations that can be more profitable to create a level playing field for renewables and fossil fuels?”
Ambition loop to drive action
Like Tumiwa, Suarga stressed the need for greater dialogue between the government and businesses so companies can understand better how they can contribute to Indonesia’s emissions targets.
“They know about sustainability because of the market and demands of the market… [but] I’m not sure whether [they] really understand about Indonesia’s target to achieve a certain amount of emissions reductions in the NDCs,” he said.
Currently, the government and private sector are largely working separately, Suarga added. The challenge lies in bringing them together to set targets, plan implementation and monitor emissions reductions. “It will need two to tango. The government should engage more with the private sector,” he emphasised.
Big banks’ lending to coal backers undermines Indonesia’s green plans
For the We Mean Business Coalition’s Briner, what is ultimately needed is an “ambition loop” in which businesses lead on emissions reductions while governments create policies that accelerate private-sector action.
“It really helps governments when they have a strong voice from business calling for policy action. It helps move things forward,” he said.
Without stronger policies and incentives, achieving NDC goals will become increasingly difficult to achieve and costly, experts say.
“It’s really a case of all hands-on deck right now,” Briner said. “We need all sides of this equation working together and trying to get this done because there isn’t an alternative.”
The post Two to tango: How governments can unlock private investment for national climate goals appeared first on Climate Home News.
Two to tango: How governments can unlock private investment for national climate goals
The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.
A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.
“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.
El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.
Fossil fuellling the fires
Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.
A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.
UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.
Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.
Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.
Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.
After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.
The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.
Defending science
Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.
Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.
The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.
Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks
The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”
The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”
Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.
The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.
The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.
More adaptation needed
Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.
As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.
The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.
The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.
UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire
Climate Change
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.
“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”
“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”
—ENDS—
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.
These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.
However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.
These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.
In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.
The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.
The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.
‘Quietest year’
On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.
Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.
Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:
“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”
Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.
Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.
Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.
The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.
As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.
Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.
Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.
“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”
In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.
Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.
By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.
Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.
Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.
French fires
Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.
The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.
For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.
The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.
The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.
On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.
More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.
In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:
“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”
Central Spain scorched
While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.
The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.
In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.
BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.
Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.
Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.
Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:
“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”
Related
The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
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