A few months ago, I was hiking along the Hooker Valley trail at the base of Aoraki Mt. Cook in Aotearoa, New Zealand.
The sky was a light blue, the sun was reflecting off the snow capped mountains and glaciers, and the river was rushing beneath the suspension bridges. How was it even possible that I, a girl from Cleveland, Ohio, could be experiencing this? How could I be standing under the looming shadow of Aoraki Mt. Cook? I don’t know if I will ever be able to come up with the correct words to describe this experience, but it raises a question: can you be in a constant state of awe when experiencing nature? Awe is defined as, “a feeling of reverential respect mixed with fear or wonder,” and as I reflect on my time spent at Aoraki Mt. Cook, I can’t help but think that I was in awe. The day before the hike I had some free time after class and decided to go for a run along a different trail: a winding path that led to a small look out of one of the glaciers. I was running in a place that I could never create in my dreams, a place that has made me understand my climate story.
My climate story begins on a snowy December morning as I shopped for a new fleece sweatshirt before my 8am class in high school. I clicked on the Patagonia website and was greeted with the phrase “The President Stole Your Land” printed in plain white letters against a black background. This happened at a point in my life where I had no idea what I was interested in.
As a sophomore in high school, I was pretty sure I wanted to be a biologist of some sort but as I began to learn exactly what Patagonia was talking about, I learned that my real passion lay in the world of politics.
On December 4th, 2017, former President Donald Trump announced that he was reducing the size of Bears Ears and Grand Escalante National Monuments. Shortly thereafter I walked around school with a shirt that said, “Protect Bears Ears,” talked about the issue to anyone who would listen, and I wrote two different research papers on various aspects of the controversy. I have continued to follow the Story of Bears Ears until President Joe Biden reinstated the original boundaries when he entered office. But as I continually checked on this issue for five years, some questions arose: Why did I care about this? Why did I allow the Southeast corner of Utah to occupy my thoughts on so many occasions?
The answers are not simple, as they are rooted in different parts of who I am. When I was a toddler, my dad would push me in a baby jogger as he ran along the Tow Path Trail in the Cuyahoga Valley in Ohio, and subsequently the Valley became my favorite place to run. I would go alone, with family, or with friends. But the key point is that I had continual access to a place I could explore and wander on my own time. I was unimpeded by any outside laws or circumstances, there was nothing stopping me from running along the crooked river under red and orange painted leaves. I grew up being in awe of the Valley and everything that lived within the boundaries of the national park.
Maybe that is why I was drawn to the issue of Bears Ears having the National Monument Status taken away. The Indigenous people that maintained their ancestral lands were suddenly barred from continuing their preservation and stewardship of key parts of the National Monument because of political battles that favored big oil companies. Political systems should help people, not tear them down. Political systems should empower people to protect what they believe in while also ensuring the continued rights of people and the environment. If I have an odd passion for the world of politics, why not use that to help lift the voices of those around me? If I love running in the Cuyahoga Valley then there is someone like me who loves running in Bears Ears or another natural area, and they have the same rights as I do to seek access to the land in a respectful way.
Learning about Bears Ears sparked a curiosity in me that forced me to learn about the intersection of politics and the environment.
I forgot to reflect on one key component of the definition of awe. The aspect of fear. While I respect nature and enjoy my time in it, is there ever a time where I am scared. Have I been scared while running through the Cuyahoga Valley or hiking under Aoraki Mt. Cook or any number of times where I have immersed myself in nature?
The answer is yes. Mother Nature has created some of the most beautiful things and places on this planet. Ocean reefs, old growth forests, and mountains that scrape the sky all the way down to plains that stretch for miles. But, Mother Nature also encompasses mudslides, droughts, wildfires, and flooding. These are natural processes that have existed long before humans roamed the Earth, and will exist long after we are gone. While it may not seem evident in every part of nature, climate change is disrupting and shifting pre-existing patterns. Climate change is destroying the world around us, creating more intense weather events, causing glaciers to melt, drought and diseases are becoming more prevalent, and the temperature is clearly rising around the globe.
If part of being in a constant state of awe of nature is fear, then I am in awe because I am scared that climate change is only getting worse. I am scared that running outside will be replaced with running on a treadmill with a screen as my window to the world. I am scared for the people who are forced to embark on a dangerous journey as they migrate across countries to seek refuge from climate change. I am scared because the political systems enacted to address climate change are failing. And I am scared because the power of nature cannot be harnessed by humans.
My climate story may not even be a story so much as it is a realization within myself that my future will involve seeking climate solutions. My climate story begins and ends with the confirmation that I am in awe of nature and will continue to be as I find my place in the world.
Julia is a Summer Climate Resilience Fellow with the Education Team at Climate generation for the 2023 summer. She is currently a senior at St. Olaf College where she is double majoring in political science and environmental studies. She is originally from Cleveland Ohio where she spent a vast amount of time exploring the Cuyahoga Valley National Park with her family and more importantly, her dog Fable. Throughout college, she has conducted research on various political and environmental topics and even presented research on the connection between voting behavior and abortion attitudes during the 2022 midterm election at an undergraduate conference. After recently studying abroad in Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia, she is excited to learn more about environmental and climate education while working at Climate Generation.
The post To Stand in Awe of Nature appeared first on Climate Generation.
Claver Gatete is Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. Jason Veysey is Energy Modeling Program Director and Senior Scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute. Lisa Sachs is Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment at Columbia University.
The case for global energy transition has rarely been clearer. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year exposed the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems, while the falling cost of renewables, the rising penetration of electric vehicles, and the growing value of demand flexibility have made the direction of travel obvious. The benefits of a clean, secure, integrated system are no longer in dispute. What remains unclear is how to build it.
Countries around the world have called for faster renewable energy deployment and alternative energy arrangements. A secure, affordable, resilient, decarbonised system requires specific investments in specific places in a specific sequence, optimised across sectors and borders. But very few governments have the analytical foundation to translate those imperatives into investment.
The two instruments that are supposed to determine investment priorities for decarbonisation – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and country platforms – cannot answer the most basic question facing any country undertaking an energy transition: what should the energy system look like?
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To close this gap, every country needs a bankable, economy-wide optimisation model for its energy system. A model is not a plan, but it can help answer the critical question of what the future energy system should look like. It shows how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, calculates investment requirements and sequencing, and quantifies how system costs are affected by assumptions, policies, and exogenous variables like trade policy and financing terms.
Tool for efficient investment
Optimisation is a simplified way of simulating an energy system, but it can be an extremely powerful tool for moving energy planning from reactive (how do we manage the disparate actions in the energy system?) to intentional (what energy system underpins our national objectives?). A model can show how optimal scenarios vary as assumptions and policies are adjusted, and how investment requirements are quantified and sequenced.
Optimisation models can treat the energy system and the sectors it serves as an integrated whole, optimising across sectors and projects in ways that can be mutually reinforcing. If considered independently, growth in industrial demand, transport electrification, and digital infrastructure can add stress to the energy system. But an optimised plan can arrange these and other changes in an efficient, synergistic way.
Two to tango: How governments can unlock private investment for national climate goals
New load can be added where low-cost power is available; industrial customers can ensure the viability of investments in energy supply; electric vehicle charging policy can smooth load curves and reduce costs for all consumers.
Additionally, optimisation modeling can also change the financeability of investments. Taken alone, each project faces uncertainty about the rest of the system, which raises the cost of capital and causes projects to stall or unwind after contracts are signed. A coherent, optimised plan makes visible the coordination that private capital would otherwise have to bet on: identified offtake, sequenced and committed transmission, contracted power supply, and so on.
What COP31 and COP32 should do
The upcoming COPs in Turkey and Ethiopia can shift the center of gravity of international climate cooperation from fragmented commitments to planning. Three moves are urgently needed.
First, optimised, economy-wide, long-term energy system planning must be the foundation on which any meaningful NDC, country platform, or finance commitment rests. NDCs are typically drafted by environment or single-line ministries, with limited cross-sectoral input from ministries of energy, finance, and planning. They contain targets, derived from sectoral strategies or national commitments, not from an analytically grounded picture of what the energy system should look like and what investments would make it work. Country platforms are generally a portfolio of investments assembled from existing project pipelines, rather than derived from a system-level analysis of what an optimised, decarbonised energy system would require.
Second, recognise regions as a key planning unit. Modern integrated energy systems are inherently regional. Renewable endowments are unevenly distributed; balancing variable supply across borders lowers aggregate cost, reduces redundant backup capacity, and unlocks economies of scale no individual nation can achieve. Many energy investments in Southeast Asia, East Africa, Southern Africa and Central Asia may only be financeable in a regional context. Assessing domestic infrastructure without regional optimisation perpetuates the perception that decarbonisation is more expensive than it is.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
Third, finance the planning capacity. A coordinated commitment by multilateral development banks, bilateral donors, and philanthropic partners to help every region and its constituent countries develop and maintain their own modelling capability, with open-source tools and regional analytical hubs, would close the most consequential gap in the current architecture. The cost is small relative to current spending on country platforms, failed project preparation, and misallocated infrastructure investment.
This includes supporting regional institutions such as the ASEAN Centre for Energy, the African Energy Commission, regional power pools, and the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization to determine what optimised regional systems require. Country-by-country pledging, repeated at every COP, will not deliver what meaningfully integrated systems can.
The 2026 energy crisis made the cost of unplanned, fossil-dependent systems newly visible. That window of clarity will close. The international community should seize the moment to build the planning foundation that has been missing for thirty years, rather than commissioning another round of NDCs or pledges, striving for outcomes neither was designed to deliver.
The post Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition
The world is currently experiencing what is expected to become the strongest El Niño on record – dubbed a “super El Niño” by many.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.
This temporarily raises global temperatures and reshapes rainfall and extreme weather around the world – impacting the lives of billions of people.
The current El Niño event began in June and is expected to last into 2027.
El Niño is part of a wider climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
The ENSO cycle also has a cool phase, known as La Niña, as well as a “neutral” phase. El Niño and La Niña events typically last between nine and 12 months, but can go on longer.
Below, Carbon Brief explains how the ENSO cycle works, its impacts on extreme weather and global temperatures and why this El Niño event is projected to be the most intense since records began.
The post Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-explainer/index.html
The second-largest reservoir in the US reached a record-low water height on Saturday – just days after the country’s largest reservoir broke its own record.
Both Lake Mead and Lake Powell are located on the Colorado River.
They provide water for populations across seven US states in the south-western US, with around 40 million people getting some or all of their municipal water from the Colorado River.
The river also provides water for around 5.5m acres (22,258 square kilometres) of farmland across Colorado, Arizona, California and the other states in the river basin.
Experts tell Carbon Brief that climate change, population growth and over-consumption are all contributing to the current record-low levels of the reservoirs.
Record lows
At full capacity, Lakes Mead and Powell can hold a combined 68 cubic kilometres of water – enough to supply all household consumption in the contiguous US for nearly 1.5 years. However, the water level in both reservoirs has been declining for decades.
The chart below shows the water level of Lake Mead, in metres above mean sea level. The reservoir, which began to fill in 1935 following the construction of the Hoover Dam, has a “full pool” maximum capacity of 347.60 metres. The water level in Lake Mead reached a record low of 317.11 metres on 7 August.
The following chart shows the water level of Lake Powell, in metres above mean sea level. Lake Powell’s full-pool level is 1,127.76 metres.
While the reservoir reached its maximum capacity several times in the 1980s, it has not done so since. On 15 August, the water level in Lake Powell was recorded at a new record-low of 1,072.87 metres.
Both reservoirs have continued to decline in the days since breaking their respective records. The downward trend will largely continue in both lakes until next spring, when the snowpack in the mountains of the Upper Colorado River Basin begins to melt, says Dr Jack Schmidt, a senior research scientist at Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The big dilemma of the moment is that we’re only in the middle of August, and we have no assurance of what the coming winter will be. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will be depleting overall total basin reservoir storage from now until, roughly, early April.”
Compounding factors
The record lows across the two reservoirs are the result of several compounding factors, experts tell Carbon Brief.
Since the turn of the 20th century, the amount of water flowing along the Upper Colorado River has declined by about 20%. Research suggests that half of this decline can be attributed to human-induced climate change.
Most of the river’s streamflow comes from the snowpack of the Upper Colorado River Basin, which stretches across five western US states but is primarily located in Colorado and Utah.
This region has been gripped by a historic “megadrought” for more than a quarter of a century. Nearly half of the megadrought’s intensity over 2000-18 is attributable to climate change, according to a 2020 study.
At the same time, the increasing population in the US south-west has put added pressure on the Colorado River’s water supply. The number of people obtaining some or all of their water from the Colorado system has grown by 15 million (around 60%) since 1992.
Schmidt tells Carbon Brief:
“There’s an ultimate cause of the present water crisis, and there’s a proximate cause. The ultimate cause is a warming climate, a warming planet and a pretty clear correlation between warming conditions and decreased runoff in the Colorado River Basin.
“The proximate cause is that in this messy democratic republic of ours, big policy decisions that match the variability of the climate occur painfully slowly – with intense political negotiations – and only incrementally.”
On 31 July, the US Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water resources in the western US, released an environmental impact statement on its proposed post-2026 strategy for managing Lakes Powell and Mead. The strategy itself has not been released yet.
Schmidt notes that the statement does appear to give the Bureau flexibility to “respond to crisis” by reducing the delivery of water to several states. However, he adds:
“They acknowledge it won’t work if we just stay critically dry, and of course every climate model for the 21st century, especially with a continually warming planet, says that that’s exactly what’s going to happen.”
The post Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: The two largest reservoirs in the US have hit record-low levels
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