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As we enter the second and decisive week of Cop28 in Dubai, an agreement to phase out all fossil fuels and scale up renewables is edging close to a pivotal decision. 

In these kind of talks just a couple of years ago, very few people at the table were able to even entertain conversations on the phasing out of fossil fuels.

But at the  outset of Cop28, 106 countries jointly advocated for the fast decline of fossil fuels, a notable increase from the 80 countries demanding the same at Cop27 in Sharm el Sheikh. Over 120 countries have so far committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. 

The energy transition has finally been dragged centre stage. The Overton window has shifted significantly, and this is in no small part thanks to the resolve and determination of global south negotiators and their allies in the movement for climate justice.

Adaptation and justice

If we land an ambitious energy package in Dubai, it will once again be thanks to climate vulnerable nations, namely small islands states and Latin American countries in the Ailac grouping.

Wealthy blocs like the European Union must urgently address the adaptation concerns voiced by groups like the African group.

Insisting that the just transition work program exclusively focuses on in-country workforce issues while disregarding the global inter-country dimension  is a pitfall that affluent nations must evade.

Negotiations for a global decision to phase out fossil fuels and a renewable energy target are above the paygrade of the mid-level diplomats that do the negotiating in the first week of Cops.

Ministers arriving today, at the start of the second week, is like Champions League football after watching non league.

As fossil fuel phase-out gathers steam, resistance builds

Like football, the higher league doesn’t always reflect a difference in the quality of performances, but the sophistication of tactics applied, and the stakes that are on the table. 

The Cop28 presidency will continue with a double layer of ministerial pairs between them and the energy negotiations, as Denmark and South Africa are facilitating discussions on the Global Stocktake. At the same time, discussions will be further outsourced to ministers from Singapore and Norway.

A significant portion of the UAE team comprises of Cop26 presidency staff, who were the first to apply a strategy of engaging countries in one-on-one negotiations rather than collective ones.

This approach undeniably furnishes the presidency with a knowledge advantage. The UAE could strike a backroom deal with big powers like the US and China rather than driving a transparent process and working with the champions of this process, the small island states and vulnerable countries to land the most ambitious outcome possible.

Different paces

Beyond navigating the broader landscape, achieving such an ambitious outcome demands a closer examination of critical issues within the substance of the energy package: Differentiation, urgency, and support.

At the heart of the fossil fuel phase-out and renewable energy target deal lies the need for fairness. This fairness must be reflected in language that unequivocally states developed countries take the lead, phasing out at a faster pace than lower income countries.

Currently, some developed nations propose a 2050 timeline for the energy transition, without a corresponding earlier hard timeline for developed countries – a clear incongruity. 

Vietnam charts uncertain coal path as finance falls short

A potential solution involves introducing qualitative language emphasizing the leadership role of developed countries while respecting the distinct starting points of low-income nations.

Instead of a 2050 timeline, countries should prioritise immediate progress in this decade. Finally, the energy package necessitates an integrated support plan, acknowledging the investment and support requirements in the global south outside China.

It should establish processes to ensure necessary support, potentially including direct links to the new collective quantified goal on finance and Cop29.

EU and US action needed

Climate-vulnerable nations have once again demonstrated leadership, but a pivotal political question looms: Will some developed countries align with them and form a progressive coalition?

At Cop27 last year, a few countries — Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia — opposed language on the phase-out of all fossil fuels.

The Egyptian presidency at the time was complicit in hiding behind these blockers. The signals from Cop28 President Sultan Al Jaber are inconsistent at best.

So far, more countries than at Cop27 in Egypt have voiced support for phasing out fossil fuels, but closer coordination among those countries fighting for an ambitious energy outcome will be needed.

To achieve this, Europeans, especially, must be more forthcoming and move beyond mere lip service on adaptation and support for the energy transition. 

Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions

The global goal on adaptation remains a pressing concern, with negotiators making minimal progress. Ministers must transcend indicators and dimensions to expedite resilience preparedness.

This is EU negotiator Wopke Hoekstra’s first Cop. It will not only test his ambition but also his grasp of global climate politics and ability to collaborate with climate-vulnerable nations.

Positive actions could create a promising foundation, with the Canadian minister Steven Guilbeault expected to play a crucial role in fossil fuel discussions as a bridge builder.

A potential starting point for the US delegation would be to broaden their focus beyond coal to avoid alienating India, China, and other emerging economies.

Whether the European Union heeds the call of vulnerable nations will be a central question as we enter the decisive days. The prospect of bidding farewell to fossil fuels and embracing renewables gives real hope in our battle against climate chaos.

Andreas Sieber is the associate director of global policy & campaigns at 350.org.

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Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs

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Three countries have been named by the Paris Agreement’s compliance committee for failing to submit a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and repeatedly snubbing offers of help with their climate plans.

After months of internal debate over whether to identify serial non-responders, the Paris Agreement’s Implementation and Compliance Committee (PAICC) named the three countries which have failed to engage with it over their NDCs on Friday.

It named Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal and North Korea in a footnote of its annual report, adding that it decided to name them “with a view to facilitating engagement”, adding that representatives of the three nations had been invited to its meeting in early 2027 “with the purpose of identifying any challenges and constraints”.

“The Committee noted the importance of Parties engaging with the Committee in a timely manner, while noting that some delays may be due to the national capabilities and circumstances of the Parties”, the report said.

    In July, PAICC said 12 countries had ignored its repeated attempts to discuss why they had not published an NDC as required every five years under the 2015 Paris accord.

    Members of the committee had been divided over whether to name them, but at a September meeting decided to do so in their annual report to the annual climate COP summit.

    By the time the report was published on Friday, only Congo, Senegal and North Korea “had not communicated an NDC or submitted a [Biennial Transparency Report] and had not yet responded to any of the Committee’s notifications, despite several reminders issued by the Committee in this regard”.

    Rainforest and renewable energy ambitions

    The silence from Congo and Senegal is notable because the former is home to much of the Congo Basin rainforest while the latter has sought billions of dollars in climate finance to support its renewable energy ambitions.

    After Brazil, Congo has more rainforest than any country in the world. This forest, and the country’s peatlands, absorb huge amounts of greenhouse gas but are fast being lost to expanding farmland, charcoal production, logging and mining.

    Senegal signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership with Canada and wealthy European nations in 2023, to help it meet its renewable energy targets under the-then government of Macky Sall. It was chair of the Least Developed Countries group between January 2022 and December 2023.

    Greenpeace campaigner Raoul Monsembula in the peatland forest around Mbandaka, Democratic Republic of Congo, on September 15, 2017 (Daniel Beltra/Greenpeace)

    Tejas Rao, who is researching the PAICC as part of a doctoral thesis at Cambridge University, said the governments of the three countries should engage with the committee.

    “Engagement costs these governments very little and the committee has shown it will listen,” he said.

    “Silence leaves the committee with no basis to help, and it leaves the [governments] exposed to the narrative that they are simply disengaged,” he told Climate Home News.

    Paris Agreement requirement

    The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all parties to publish an NDC every five years outlining their emissions reduction targets, with each plan meant to be more ambitious than the country’s last NDC.

    The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in February 2025. While most countries missed this deadline, all but around 30 – mostly small emitters but including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have now submitted them.

    Over the year, the PAICC – which is made up of government climate officials from developed and developing countries – has been communicating with governments that have not submitted NDCs and trying to overcome barriers to them doing so.

    Some nations have cited exceptional circumstances as the reason for not submitting an NDC, a process that requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC, seen by Climate Home News, said that the country’s civil war had led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.

      The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement and so do not have active NDCs, nor does Taiwan, which is not a UN member state.

      Rao said that because the PAICC is “facilitative and non-punitive”, naming the countries “is meant to open a door, not close one – the invited consultation is the point”.

      “In recent months, governments that explained their constraints, whether capacity, finance or domestic process, have been met with follow-up and support rather than sanction, and the number of silent governments has fallen sharply,” Rao said.

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      Climate Change

      Q&A: Why a pivotal IPCC meeting in Ethiopia ended in ‘profound disappointment’

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      Countries have failed – for the sixth time running – to agree on the timeline for publishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) next set of influential reports.

      The IPCC’s 65th session (IPCC-65) was seen by many to be the final opportunity for countries to agree on a schedule where its seventh assessment report (AR7) would be published in time for the UN’s second “global stocktake” of climate action.

      Before last week’s meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, IPCC chair Prof Sir Jim Skea had warned that releasing the reports in time for the stocktake in 2028 would depend on a timelines being agreed by the end of 2026.

      But the week-long meeting descended into fraught disagreements between governments, resulting in Skea “suspending” the talks on Friday evening with no decision made.

      Countries were also unable to agree on the IPCC’s budget for the rest of the AR7 cycle, leaving the body with a “serious funding crisis”.

      The IPCC has pledged to reconvene the meeting at the “earliest opportunity”; however, it has not yet given an indication of when this will be.

      In his concluding remarks, Skea described the Addis Ababa summit as a “profound disappointment” and “among the most difficult IPCC meetings”, according to reporting from the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).

      Some countries have reacted with dismay to the breakdown of negotiations, warning that a failure to have the IPCC’s latest assessments on climate adaptation and mitigation ready for the UN stocktaking exercise would undermine global climate action.

      A climate envoy from a Pacific island state said it was a “travesty that a handful of countries continue to delay the IPCC’s reports – the science we need back home to help us save lives and livelihoods”.

      Below, Carbon Brief explores the key developments, debates and disagreements at the IPCC meeting.