Connect with us

Published

on

Rapidly rising emissions from China’s agricultural machinery could “hinder” the country’s push to net-zero, according to new research.

The study, published in Nature Food, finds that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from agricultural machinery have increased approximately seven-fold in the country since 1985.

Using government statistics on the quantity of farm equipment over time, researchers calculate the changes in CO2 emissions and other air pollutants between 1985 and 2020.

They find that CO2 emissions from farm equipment have grown, on average, by nearly 6% annually since 1985.

Based on “anticipated trends”, they say, increased mechanisation of agriculture could account for 21% of China’s total emissions in 2050, under a pathway to its 2060 net-zero goal.

This could make it harder for China to meet its emissions reduction goals, as well as “degrade” its air quality, the authors say.

However, the study also finds that widespread adoption of machinery powered with renewable energy could mitigate 65-70% of these emissions.

One expert, who was not involved in the research, tells Carbon Brief that the work is “valuable”, although she adds that farm machinery would likely not reach such a large proportion of total emissions:

“If China is making rapid progress in reducing emissions from other emitters…then I expect it will have made significant progress in the decarbonisation of agricultural machinery too.”

Machinery-related emissions

Food systems are responsible for around one-third of human-driven greenhouse gas emissions.

This figure includes everything associated with producing food – from the emissions caused by deforestation or other land-use changes to the methane belched by cows or off-gassed from manure.

In the new study, researchers rely on data from the China Statistical Yearbook, which provides annual statistics on a wide range of socioeconomic indicators. From the yearbook, the researchers use data on both the quantity and power of agricultural machinery in use in the country, as well as the properties of the fuel used in the machinery, cultivated land area, population and more.

In addition to CO2 emissions, the researchers calculate the machinery-related emissions of three types of air pollutants: fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and total hydrocarbons (THC).

They divide the equipment into four categories: small tractors, large tractors, field-management machinery and harvest machinery. Then, they calculate the CO2, PM2.5, NOx and THC emissions for each type of machinery in each year.

The chart below shows the CO2 emissions for the study period of 1985 to 2020. The bars show emissions resulting from harvesting machinery (light blue), field-management machinery (pink), small tractors (light green) and large tractors (dark green).

Annual emissions of CO2 from farm machinery over 1985-2020. The colours indicate the type of machinery responsible for the emissions: small tractors (light green), large tractors (dark green), field-management machinery (pink) and harvesting machinery (light blue). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)
Annual emissions of CO2 from farm machinery over 1985-2020. The colours indicate the type of machinery responsible for the emissions: small tractors (light green), large tractors (dark green), field-management machinery (pink) and harvesting machinery (light blue). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

They find that the total farm equipment CO2 emissions have increased from around 23m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in 1985 to nearly 160MtCO2 in 2020, growing annually by a rate of 5.7%.

This is equivalent to around 1.5% of the country’s total emissions in 2020. While this is only a small percentage, the amount of CO2 actually exceeds the annual emissions of entire countries – such as the Netherlands, the Philippines and Nigeria, the authors note.

In particular, the emissions contribution of large tractors has increased steadily since 2005. The authors attribute this to a “series of policies to promote large-scale machinery”.

Disaggregating the emissions of agricultural machinery from food systems more broadly “provides a unique perspective”, says Prof Zhangcai Qin, from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China. Qin, who was not involved in the new study, says that doing so “allow[s] policymakers to design targeted interventions without compromising agricultural productivity”.

Regional breakdown

The researchers also break the emissions down to the province level, finding a large range of agricultural machinery emissions – from 0.1MtCO2 for the lowest-emitting provinces to 17.5MtCO2 for the highest emitters.

They find that five provinces in eastern and north-eastern China – Shandong, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hebei and Anhui – account for more than 40% of agricultural machinery emissions. Together, those provinces contain one-third of the country’s cropland area and about 46% of the total engine power.

However, even between these high-emitting regions, the makeup of the machinery was different, with some provinces more dependent on large tractors and some more dominated by field-management machinery.

The sub-national emissions analysis is one of the key advances of the new research, says Dr Hannah Ritchie, deputy editor at Our World in Data. Ritchie, who was not involved in the study, explains:

“This spatial resolution of emissions estimates is valuable, because there is such large [variety] across a country of China’s size. It also offers important insights into potential emissions pathways in the future, under different rates of mechanisation and low-carbon technology uptake.”

Growth factors

The researchers identify four socioeconomic factors contributing to the rise in emissions: population growth, changes in per-capita cropland area, level of mechanisation and emissions intensity.

The chart below shows the change in CO2 emissions (black) due to changes in emission intensity (dark blue), level of mechanisation (light blue), per-capita cropland area (yellow) and population (orange).

Total CO2 emissions (black) for the years 1985, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The emissions are broken down by four contributing factors: changes in emission intensity (dark blue), level of mechanisation (light blue), per-capita cropland area (yellow) and population (orange). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)
Total CO2 emissions (black) for the years 1985, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The emissions are broken down by four contributing factors: changes in emission intensity (dark blue), level of mechanisation (light blue), per-capita cropland area (yellow) and population (orange). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

Of those, the increasing level of mechanisation “dominate[s]” the change in emissions, the paper says. It notes that these changes alone were responsible for around a 100% increase in emissions over 1985-2000.

Population growth was another large driver of increasing farm equipment emissions over the early part of the study period, the study notes, but it has been less of a factor since 2000.

In contrast, increasing emissions intensity uniformly acted to decrease emissions, the authors say, while “tillage pressure” increased emissions early on in the study period, but decreased emissions since 2000.

Carbon goals

Under current policies, China aims to “achieve comprehensive mechanisation in major crop production processes by 2035”, the authors note.

Therefore, unabated continued growth of agricultural mechanisation could compromise China’s efforts to achieve its “dual-carbon” goals, they warn.

(The term “dual-carbon” goals refers to the country’s pledge to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.)

They write that effective mitigation of these emissions will require different strategies in the short- and long-term future, noting that near-term availability means that “biofuels and natural gas [will] play an important role over the coming decade”.

In the longer term, they say, renewable energy sources, as well as green hydrogen, “have the largest mitigation potential”. Previous work has shown that using automated equipment, electric tractors and renewable energy sources can reduce agricultural emissions by 90%.

Ritchie says she is “a bit sceptical that the relative contributions of agricultural machinery will be as high as 20% in 2050”. She adds:

“This rests on the assumption that these emissions go mostly unabated, while most other sectors rapidly decline. If China is making rapid progress in reducing emissions from other emitters, including larger on-road transport, such as trucks and other agricultural emissions…then I expect it will have made significant progress in the decarbonisation of agricultural machinery too.”

The post Rising emissions from farm equipment could ‘hinder’ China’s net-zero goals appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Rising emissions from farm equipment could ‘hinder’ China’s net-zero goals

Continue Reading

Climate Change

Scientists Deploy First Satellite Tag on a Leatherback Sea Turtle in Ecuador to Better Reveal Gaps in Ocean Protection

Published

on

Tracking the turtle’s movements could help identify where high-risk fishing areas overlap with the critically endangered species.

Just after 3 a.m. on a recent Friday morning, a 4.5-foot-long leatherback sea turtle covered her freshly dug nest with sand, sweeping and packing it into place with steady strokes of her flippers just above the high tide along a remote, rugged stretch of Ecuador’s Pacific coast.

Scientists Deploy First Satellite Tag on a Leatherback Sea Turtle in Ecuador to Better Reveal Gaps in Ocean Protection

Continue Reading

Climate Change

Green Climate Fund picks locations for five developing country hubs

Published

on

The UN’s flagship climate fund has selected five locations for its new regional offices, a move aimed at bringing it physically closer to developing countries and making its finance easier to access.

After fraught discussions during a meeting last week, the board of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) decided in a secret vote on Saturday to open regional offices in Panama City, Amman in Jordan, Suva in Fiji, Nairobi in Kenya and Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire. The African office will be split across two locations to better serve the continent with the largest number of countries and projects supported by the fund.

The decision marks a significant shift for the fund, which has operated from its headquarters in Songdo, South Korea, since its launch in 2013.

“This is a landmark moment for [the] GCF,” said the fund’s executive director Mafalda Duarte. “It has taken a lot of work, careful negotiation and persistent advocacy for a model that will bring us closer to the countries, to our partners and the communities we were created to serve”.

‘Less delay, more action’

The new offices are expected to act as the GCF’s front line, working more closely with governments, the private sector and civil society to improve access to climate finance and support the delivery of projects aimed at cutting emissions and strengthening resilience to climate impacts.

Welcoming the decision in a LinkedIn post, Fiji’s Permanent Secretary for the environment and climate change Sivendra Michael described it as “a win for the entire Pacific”, citing “long hours” and “tough negotiations” behind the outcome. “Less delay, more action — real support where it matters most,” he added.

    A total of 43 countries applied to host the new offices, with 16 making a final shortlist after the GCF secretariat assessed bids on criteria including cost, connectivity and the ability to attract a “world-class workforce” through quality of life and access to international schools.

    Panama emerged as the top-ranked location overall, according to a document seen by Climate Home News, while some selected hosts, including Amman and Abidjan, scored lower than rival candidates in their regions.

    Establishing the new hubs is expected to cost an initial $6.5 million, but the fund anticipates these upfront expenses will be offset over time through operational savings, including lower staff and travel costs.

    First Palestinian entity approved

    The GCF board also accredited the first organisation in Palestine that will be able to directly apply for and access funding.

    Created by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, the Municipal Development and Lending Fund supports local infrastructure projects and services. Working with partners, including the World Bank, it is developing projects to help communities cope with escalating climate risks such as drought and extreme heat.

    In the West Bank, which is occupied by Israel, just under half of the population lives in areas classified as having high to very high climate exposure, according to a recent study.

    The post Green Climate Fund picks locations for five developing country hubs appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Green Climate Fund picks locations for five developing country hubs

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    Island nations fight to save cultural heritage from climate change

    Published

    on

    Farmers and fishermen in the Maldives have long relied on an ancient calendar to guide their daily lives.

    The Nakaiy system divides the year into 27 distinct periods, each named after a star or constellation in the night sky.

    Any one period in the calendar tells you about expected weather and tidal patterns, navigational routes, and fishing conditions. The Nakaiy was created through centuries of careful observation and local knowledge, passed down through families as an essential tool for survival.

    But things are now changing. The climate crisis is leading to more extreme weather events across the Indian Ocean island nation and upending the Nakaiy calendar.

    “When you go and speak to communities and ask them what kind of impacts they are facing, a lot of elders will tell you that the weather, it doesn’t follow the calendar anymore,” explained Aishath Reesha Suhail, a programme officer in the Maldives’ Ministry of Tourism and Environment.

    As the effects of climate change worsen, it is a real prospect that the Nakaiy may be abandoned by local people, representing a major cultural loss to the Maldives.

    ‘Systemic and growing threat’

    With extreme weather becoming the norm, communities are observing a domino effect of consequences in their everyday lives. The slow onset of heritage loss is now being seen across continents, but notably among small islands in remote parts of the ocean.

    “Climate change represents a systemic and growing threat to cultural heritage worldwide,” a UNESCO spokesperson told Climate Home, adding that the World Heritage Committee has identified climate change as “one of the most significant long-term risks affecting properties across all regions.”

    UNESCO, the UN body for education, science and culture, defines the loss of cultural heritage as “the erosion of traditional knowledge systems, craftsmanship, social practices and identity, particularly where communities are displaced or livelihoods disrupted”. A clear example is historical sites and even entire islands washed into the ocean as a result of rising sea levels and coastal erosion. 

    The Maldives is dealing with such a situation now. The Koagannu Cemetery is a 900-year-old resting place, located on the country’s southernmost atoll, a mere 50 metres from the shoreline. The monument’s intricate coral gravestones are being actively threatened by the encroaching Indian Ocean. 

    The government and local community have responded to this challenge with emergency protection measures. Sandbags and concrete structures have been installed along the coastline, complemented by large numbers of palm trees to create a seawall. A wider solution is ‘beach nourishment’, a common practice in the Maldives where sand from elsewhere is brought in to replace what has been lost through erosion. Taken together, these solutions have so far protected the cemetery.

    Pacific islands push back against growing climate threats

    Among the many issues climate change creates, cultural heritage is not always front of mind. In the Maldives, one of the main barriers people face is awareness. “Most of what we are dealing with relates to the erosion of our islands along with areas such as fisheries… but we are quite limited in our capacity to do something about it,“ Suhail said.

    “We don’t understand the full breadth of the issue at present because we haven’t been able to do extensive research on the matter,” she added. However, assessing the extent of the damage – and how to respond effectively – is a key priority for the government, outlined in its latest climate plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution, and as part of its National Adaptation Plan process.

    Fishing is at the core of the country’s culture and identity, employing thousands of people. Most dishes include fish – “we have it for breakfast, lunch and dinner,” Suhail noted – but the climate crisis and overfishing are shifting how and when communities can fish. Tuna makes up 98% of all fish caught in the Maldives, but warmer ocean temperatures are changing migratory patterns, pushing the species into deeper, colder waters.

    As a critical economic and cultural resource, the government has outlined a range of solutions to protect the fisheries sector in its first Biennial Transparency Report to the UN. These include using real-time tracking data to improve the efficiency of fishing operations; investing in canneries to increase fish storage; and diversifying away from tuna through marine farming.

    Koagannu Cemetery, a 900-year-old resting place in the Maldives, is threatened by rising sea levels in the Indian Ocean. (Image: Ashwa Faheem) 

    Koagannu Cemetery, a 900-year-old resting place in the Maldives, is threatened by rising sea levels in the Indian Ocean. (Image: Ashwa Faheem) 

    Culture and nature go hand-in-hand

    The same pattern is playing out elsewhere.

    Palau and the Maldives are not close to one another. The two states are separated by around 4,000 miles and sit in different corners of the ocean. But both are experiencing very similar climate challenges, based on their position as a set of scattered, low-lying islands surrounded by an imposing body of blue water.

    In the same way as the Maldives, Palau’s cultural heritage is closely tied to “land, coastlines and traditional food systems,” according to Toni Soalabla, at the Palau Office of Climate Change.

    “Many of the places that hold stories, history and identity of our communities are located along the coast and are increasingly exposed to erosion and sea level rise,” she said.

    One of these places is Ngerutechei village, reportedly the oldest in Palau, and home to ancient stone paths and carvings. The village provides a glimpse into the past social values and culture of the people in this western Pacific nation.

    How Vanuatu is facing up to rising climate risks

    As part of the development of Palau’s National Adaptation Plan, the government has worked with local leaders to identify similar sites of cultural significance. The plan encourages communities to use their own knowledge to create protective measures for these sites.

    Climate change is also prompting communities to take up traditional land and food practices again. These include cultivating taro, a stable food source that has historically supported water, soil and food security on the islands. 

    “These systems developed over generations in response to local environmental conditions, so strengthening them today is both a climate adaptation measure and a way of maintaining cultural knowledge that might otherwise fade,” said Soalabla.

    Cultural practices in Palau have developed alongside the natural ecosystems that people rely on to survive. It is within this context that researchers believe adaptation policies should be created. Recognising this relationship “can strengthen both community identity and environmental resilience at the same time”, according to Soalabla.

    Taro farming is making a return to Palau as a traditional source of food security. (Image: Kiara Worth / IISD / Palau Office of Climate Change)

    Taro farming is making a return to Palau as a traditional source of food security. (Image: Kiara Worth / IISD / Palau Office of Climate Change)

    An ancient monolith in Ngerutechei village is being protected against coastal erosion. (Image: Kiara Worth / IISD / Palau Office of Climate Change).

    An ancient monolith in Ngerutechei village is being protected against coastal erosion. (Image: Kiara Worth / IISD / Palau Office of Climate Change).

    Heritage on the global stage

    The issue of cultural loss has not gone unnoticed in international climate negotiations. 

    Small island states such as the Maldives have used their role at the UN to push for greater awareness and action, with some key successes.

    In 2015, the Paris Agreement established a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) which recognised that countries needed to do something about climate change now and not later. However, it took six years before a framework and a set of adaptation targets were agreed at the UN climate summit in Glasgow to pursue this goal. 

    From this came the establishment of seven overall themes – from poverty eradication to access to health – to guide adaptation action and a set of around 60 indicators to measure progress against the targets.

    World leaders invited to see Pacific climate destruction before COP31

    Emilie Beauchamp, an adaptation specialist at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), said that “cultural heritage was highlighted as one of the global priorities [of the GGA Framework] and is one of the seven themes, so it is considered very important by the international community.”

    The much-debated set of indicators, only finalised in Belém at last year’s COP30, include five related to cultural heritage with a focus on preserving cultural practices and important sites that are “guided by traditional knowledge, Indigenous Peoples’ knowledge and local knowledge systems”. A spokesperson for UNESCO said the inclusion of heritage indicators “marks an important recognition that climate impacts extend beyond economic losses”. 

    While critics said the set of final indicators was rushed through by the Brazilian presidency, they now serve as guidance for national governments that wish to implement plans to protect their common heritage. The missing piece of the puzzle remains how to finance these plans – something notably absent from the Belém text, which made clear that the adaptation indicators “do not create new financial obligations or commitments, nor liability or compensation”.

    The lack of financial commitments proved disappointing for many small states grappling with how to prevent their cultural history from being entirely forgotten, especially at a time when adaptation finance remains below requirements. A recent UNEP report found that developing nations would need an estimated US$310 billion per year in 2035 to adapt to climate change, while current public financing was around $26 billion.

    At these low levels “only a small percentage of what the framework outlines could be implemented,” according to Beauchamp.

    Recent research from WRI and UNESCO found 73% of non-marine World Heritage Sites are threatened by at least one severe water risk.

    Recent research from WRI and UNESCO found 73% of non-marine World Heritage Sites are threatened by at least one severe water risk.

    The challenge of cultural heritage

    When looking at low-lying islands on a map, they can appear as specks of land amid a vast ocean. Many of the stories from these remote places go unnoticed. But the specks represent millennia of human culture that is slowly being lost to the ocean.

    While the international community has now recognised the problem and solutions exist, the recurring issue of scarce finance may prevent governments from taking sustained action. Island communities have already been forced to move home as sea levels rise, leaving behind their cultural connections to a place.

    The value of any cultural asset, or of human heritage, can be judged by how it is engaged with over generations. Without human intervention, many historical sites, language, cuisine and other local customs would become a forgotten part of history. The rapid onset of climate change brings the role of cultural heritage into sharp relief, challenging communities to decide in real time what they value, what deserves saving, and how to achieve that.

    Stories of cultural loss are not confined to small islands but it is here where the challenge is presenting most acutely. The experiences of these vulnerable nations in protecting their heritage will provide the litmus test for effective adaptation responses elsewhere.

    Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK.

    (Main image: The Isdhoo Havitha is an ancient Buddhist monastery in the Maldives, located moments from the shoreline. Photo: Ashwa Faheem) 

    The post Island nations fight to save cultural heritage from climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Island nations fight to save cultural heritage from climate change

    Continue Reading

    Trending

    Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com