Droughts spanning multiple years have become drier, hotter and more frequent over the past 40 years, according to new research.
The study, published in Science, finds that the global land surface affected by these extreme events has expanded at a rate of nearly 50,000 square kilometres (km2) per year in the past four decades – an area larger than Switzerland each year.
The authors identify multi-year droughts – which can last from years to decades – that occurred around the world between 1980 and 2018.
They find that multi-year droughts can cause significant declines in vegetation in ecosystems such as grasslands. These impacts can also translate into severe impacts for humans, including water scarcity.
Study author Dr Dirk Karger, a senior researcher at the Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), tells Carbon Brief:
“Everybody was talking about droughts, [that they] will be more [frequent] with climate change, but there [was] no clear database where we could look. We finally have a good baseline of what is happening…[and] provide a new way of thinking about the impact the [multi-year droughts have].”
Long-lasting drought
“Multi-year” droughts – those lasting at least two years and for as long as decades – can have dramatic impacts on nature and societies.
These long-lasting events can deplete soil moisture and leave rivers, lakes and reservoirs parched. This, in turn, can result in “devastating impacts”, such as massive crop failures, tree mortality or reduced water supply, according to the study.
(For more on the different ways that droughts can be defined, see Carbon Brief’s guest post.)
In recent years, multi-year droughts have occurred around the world, including Chile, the western US and Australia. For example, a 2015 study found that the so-called “megadrought” that persisted in Chile from 2010 to 2019 led to a “marked decline in water reservoirs and an extended forest fire season”.
The new study maps the distribution of multi-year drought events between 1980 and 2018. It identifies droughts by looking at a “drought index” based on changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, which measures the amount of water that escapes the soil and plants into the atmosphere.
The researchers also rank the drought events by their severity – based on a combination of the extent and duration, along with the magnitude of the drought index. Then, they use the index to estimate the impact of multi-year droughts on global vegetation.
They identify more than 13,000 multi-year drought events during the four-decade study period, spanning every continent except Antarctica.
The map below shows the location and characteristics of the 10 most severe events, with the colours representing each individual drought and its length.
The longest multi-year drought occurred in the eastern Congo basin. It lasted for almost a decade, from 2010 to 2018, and affected an area of almost 1.5m square kilometres (km2).
The study finds that the most affected ecosystems by these extreme events are temperate grasslands.
However, not all multi-year droughts result in significant damage to ecosystems.
In the humid tropics, which are home to rainforests such as the Amazon, the lack of rainfall is not strong enough to diminish vegetation. This suggests that plants in those regions might have a “greater resistance” to drought conditions, the authors write.
Boreal forests in the far-northern hemisphere and tundra ecosystems also had a “minor response” to these events. The authors say this is because their vegetation productivity is more dependent on temperature than on the presence or absence of rainfall.
The drought with the most severe vegetation impacts occurred in Mongolia from 2000 to 2011 and reduced vegetation “greenness” by almost 30%.
For Karger, it is difficult to pinpoint the strongest multi-year drought ever because it depends on what aspect is considered: the drought that had the largest extent or the one that lasted the longest. He continues:
“With our database we can easily answer any of these questions, it’s just a matter of what we sought for, since we provide that open source and open data”.
Drivers of droughts
The research reveals that multi-year droughts have increased in size, temperature, dryness and duration.
The global land area affected by this kind of drought increased at a rate of 49,279km2 per year during that time – equivalent to a size larger than Switzerland per year.
The factors behind the intensification of multi-year droughts are increased potential evapotranspiration, decreased rainfall and rising temperatures, the study says.
The researchers note that during multi-year drought events, the “precipitation deficit” – the difference in the amount of rain compared to a baseline over a certain period and region – has surged over time.
For the 10 most severe multi-year droughts, the precipitation deficit has increased, on average, by 7mm per year over nearly four decades.
At the same time, the temperature during these events has increased by 0.26-0.35C per decade.
The study attributes the higher temperatures during multi-year droughts to climate change, noting that the warming “align[s] well” with global changes. It also notes that the years with the largest areas under multi-year drought have followed the El Niño events of 1998, 2010 and 2015.
Dr Maral Habibi, a researcher at the University of Graz, in Austria, and who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief:
“The study clearly illustrates how rising temperatures amplify drought through increased evapotranspiration, precipitation deficits and vicious feedback loops (such as reduced cloud cover exacerbating heat).”
‘More regular’ multi-year droughts
The research says that the most severe multi-year droughts identified in the study “represent valuable case studies to prepare for similar events that may occur more regularly in the 21st century”.
It also says that analysing droughts at a global level, rather than focusing on a single drought event, “paves a more realistic way to develop adequate and fair mitigation strategies”.
Dr Ruth Cerezo-Mota, a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) who was also not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the world needs more data, including high-quality and continuous observations, and more investment in science to “understand these dynamic processes”.
Habibi agrees on the need for “enhanced monitoring tools and predictive climate models”. She adds that “investments in AI-driven drought forecasting and cross-border water resource management are also vital” to “mitigate and adapt to the challenges of a warming, drying world”.
The post ‘Multi-year’ droughts have become more frequent, drier and hotter over past 40 years appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Multi-year’ droughts have become more frequent, drier and hotter over past 40 years
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, as the Hormuz crisis continued to hit oil demand and coal use also dropped.
This guest post is by:
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
This was the largest quarterly reduction since the 2022 Covid lockdowns and means that China’s CO2 emissions have now fallen by an estimated 0.5% in the year to date.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows that coal use fell by 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, while oil was down 4%.
The main drivers were a fall in power-sector coal consumption, a continued sharp reduction in transport oil consumption and slowing growth in the coal-to-chemical industry.
The sharp decline in China’s CO2 emissions extends a “flat or falling” trend that began in March 2024 and has now lasted more than two years, as shown in the figure below.
The outlook for China’s CO2 emissions depends on the balance between rising energy demand, clean-energy growth and the government response to a GDP slowdown.
Decline drivers
Key drivers of the fall in CO2 in the third quarter of 2026 included a 3.3% drop in coal-power generation, after demand growth slowed and the amount of “wasted” wind and solar fell.
Power generation from solar, wind and nuclear increased by 110 terawatt hours (TWh) year-on-year, more than twice as much as the growth in total electricity demand. This added clean-power generation equal to Germany’s total power output in the same time period.
The fall in coal-power output and CO2 emissions came despite the fact that China continues to build new coal-power capacity at near-record rates. This means that average running hours for coal plants are falling even faster than total generation, eroding their profits.
Meanwhile, transport oil consumption continued to fall sharply, down 9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. Electric vehicles (EVs) continued to gain market share, hitting a record 67% of passenger car sales and 50% of heavy trucks in September.
The amount of electricity used by EVs grew by 53%, much faster than the number of EVs on the road, showing increased usage of the existing fleet in preference to fuelled vehicles.
Elsewhere, growth in the coal-to-chemical industry continued to slow down in the third quarter of 2026. The sector has been a key source of emissions growth, but high coal prices have weakened profitability and higher output prices hurt downstream demand.
Finally, CO2 emissions from cement and steel production continued to fall in the third quarter, as the contraction in construction volumes accelerated.
Outlook for emissions
Energy consumption growth has been falling after a period of exceptionally high growth during Covid, while clean-power growth has been robust.
This makes it likely that the growth in clean-power generation will exceed total energy demand growth this year, maintaining the structural fall in fossil-fuel use.
Looking ahead, this balance also relies on progress in removing barriers to new solar and wind power being added to the grid, which result in some clean electricity being “wasted”.
The recent slowdown in energy demand growth is partly – but not fully – explained by exceptionally mild weather in the third quarter.
Another key factor is weaker GDP growth. Since reported GDP growth remains within target, however, there is reduced pressure for further stimulus policies.
The focus of the economic stimulus announced to date is “six networks”, which includes the power grid and the transportation network.
These networks are highly relevant for energy and emissions – and they are already covered by policies that emphasise “green” and zero-carbon solutions.
The post Analysis: China’s quarterly CO2 falls 3% in largest drop since Covid appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: China’s quarterly CO2 falls 3% in largest drop since Covid
Climate Change
Coles, Woolworths grilled as beef buyers receive fail grade on new deforestation scorecard
MELBOURNE, Friday 6 November 2026 — As Coles holds its Annual General Meeting today, Greenpeace Australia Pacific has branded the major supermarkets with a fail grade on their commitment to source deforestation-free beef, with an updated scorecard revealing none of the major beef buyers are following through on forest sustainability commitments.
It comes after Woolworths’s AGM last week where the board copped a grilling by environmentalists and shareholders over its failed sustainability commitments. Both Coles and Woolworths committed to eliminating deforestation in their supply chains by the end of 2025, but a year past the deadline, neither company could guarantee that their beef was not sourced from deforested pastures.
From outside the Coles AGM, Adele Chasson, Nature Policy Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said:
“This is a report card Coles and Woolworths should be ashamed to take home. While all major beef buyers had promised to take deforestation off the shelves, none of them followed through. Shareholders and the public demanded answers from Woolworths last week and from Coles today, and we will continue to hold their feet to the fire on their promises.
“Beef is the leading cause of deforestation in Australia, and Coles and Woolworths keep putting off action while koalas continue losing their homes. Aussies must be able to get their groceries without having to worry if their dinner is contributing to the bulldozing of forests or driving extinction of iconic Australian animals.
“Without strong, rapid implementation plans, these companies continue with business as usual, flying in the face of Australia’s deforestation crisis. Big beef buyers like Coles and Woolworths must stop the bulldozers now, make good on their sustainability promises and play their part in stopping Australian forest destruction.”
The scorecard assesses how eight of Australia’s largest beef buyers stack up against a conversion and deforestation-free target. It charts whether the major supermarkets, Aldi, McDonalds, Hungry Jacks, Teys, Metcash/IGA and JBS are taking proper action to end Australia’s deforestation crisis. They all failed.
-ENDS-
Media contact: Kimberley Bernard on 0407 581 404 or kbernard@greenpeace.org
Coles, Woolworths grilled as beef buyers receive fail grade on new deforestation scorecard
Özgür Özel is the leader of Turkey’s main opposition “New Party” and a member of parliament from Manisa.
The world is running out of time to deliver on the Paris Agreement. The UN Environment Programme’s latest Emissions Gap Report concludes that the chance of keeping warming below 1.5C without overshooting it is gone. Even if every country delivers its current national pledges, the planet is heading for about 2.6C of warming this century.
This is the backdrop as governments and their leaders gather in Antalya for COP31, ten years after the Paris Agreement took effect. Turkey lies in the Mediterranean, one of the regions most exposed to climate change, and hosting the summit is a real opportunity.
It is also a responsibility, and that responsibility begins at home. The world does not lack targets. What it has lacked – almost everywhere – is delivery. If Antalya is remembered for anything, it should be for shifting the focus from what countries promise to what they actually do.
For many people in Turkey, the climate crisis is already part of daily life. In 2021, forests in Manavgat, a district of Antalya, burned for more than a week. Last year, wildfires forced more than 50,000 people from their homes around the western coast city of Izmir. This October, Istanbul had its heaviest rainfall in more than 80 years, with the floods killing at least eight people.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Electrification, the fossil fuel transition, adaptation to rising impacts, climate science and trade are key themes as governments gather for COP31 in TürkiyeBrazil’s fossil fuel roadmap sketches out first global timetable
The COP30 presidency’s voluntary timetable asks countries to plan first, then build up clean energy – only turning to oil and gas supplies from 2031
Measurable outcomes
Two weeks of climate negotiations cannot deliver everything that is needed to resolve the crisis, but COP31 can push for a few things that can be measured. The first is a voluntary fossil-fuel transition roadmap, with national milestones for 2030 and 2035 reported in the same format every year.
The second is a stronger commitment to protecting forests, with progress tracked over time. The third is yearly reporting on progress towards the agreed $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance by 2035, backed by a financial roadmap.
On a