Published

8 months ago

October 24, 2025

Alice Rush

Steve Capanna is policy director and Owen Zinaman is senior advisor for Crux Alliance.

Just a few years ago, green hydrogen looked set to become a central pillar of the global energy transition. Governments across the world rolled out sweeping hydrogen strategies, while companies pitched billion-dollar projects to use clean hydrogen throughout the economy.

But the realities of green hydrogen costs, exacerbated by high interest rates and supply chain constraints, have undermined these plans.

Meanwhile, the US – which had among the most ambitious suites of hydrogen policies under the Biden Administration – has reversed course, scaling back its clean hydrogen production incentive, freezing funds for green hydrogen hubs, and cutting the vast majority of federal hydrogen research and development funding. As a result, a number of planned projects have now been canceled.

Clean hydrogen hype fades as high costs dampen demand

Clean hydrogen is experiencing growing pains elsewhere too, with several major production projects in Australia and Europe scrapped or indefinitely postponed. Demand for green hydrogen is increasingly uncertain as well, with manufacturers like steel giant ArcelorMittal backing away from plans to use green hydrogen.

Some ‘no-regrets’ uses remain

Reading the headlines, it can seem like hydrogen has no future as a climate solution.

And yet, while green hydrogen may not be an emissions panacea, climate and energy experts are clear: it remains a crucial tool to cut carbon in some key areas of the economy.

“It’s critical to not throw the baby out with the bathwater,” says Nikita Pavlenko, programs director for fuels and aviation at the International Council on Clean Transportation. “Now is the time for sober consideration of projects that supply the no-regrets uses of hydrogen necessary for long-term decarbonization, whether for the handful of industries with few alternatives or in long-haul shipping and aviation.”

And for those countries that invest in green hydrogen development now, there could be economic as well as environmental rewards.

Not all hydrogen is created equal

Hydrogen currently plays a niche but important role in the global economy. Nearly 100 million metric tons of hydrogen are produced worldwide each year, largely for use in oil refining and to make ammonia and methanol – feedstocks for fertilizers and industrial chemicals. And most of this hydrogen is produced using methane gas, contributing roughly 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

But there are other, cleaner ways to produce hydrogen.

“Blue” hydrogen still relies on natural gas but includes equipment to capture some of the carbon emissions released at the production facility. This could significantly lower on-site emissions – although not entirely.

However, it would do nothing to reduce methane and CO₂leaks from natural gas fields or pipelines, which an established body of evidence suggests have been systematically underestimated and are often not accounted for in many existing regulations anyway. Put together, this means blue hydrogen is likely much more polluting than is often claimed.

That’s why clean energy experts view “green” hydrogen as the best option for cutting emissions.

Green hydrogen is produced via a process called electrolysis, in which electricity is used to split hydrogen from water, leaving only oxygen as a byproduct. This process can be emissions free – but only if the electrolysis is powered by new clean electricity resources that are physically deliverable on an hourly basis to the hydrogen production facility.

A narrow but necessary path for green hydrogen

Still, scaling green hydrogen is easier said than done. Green hydrogen remains a nascent technology and costs roughly two to three times more than conventional hydrogen produced from natural gas. Costs are expected to decline as production scales, but only if electricity costs and interest rates are kept in check – which, recently, has not been the case.

But there is good news: experts argue that green hydrogen will only be needed in a few specific parts of the economy.

“Given the heavy energy losses in making hydrogen, it will almost always be cheaper and smarter to use electricity directly,” says Katherine Dixon, executive director of the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP). “Heat pumps are the best example: they cut energy demand dramatically compared to gas, while hydrogen for heating would multiply it.”

And as other technologies get cheaper, the number of applications where green hydrogen is a necessary decarbonization tool will only shrink.

‘Hard-to-abate’ sectors need hydrogen

Still, in a net-zero economy, absent unforeseen technology innovations, we are going to need a lot more green hydrogen in the future – roughly four to six times more than all of the hydrogen used today, and many orders of magnitude more than current green hydrogen production.

Why? Because there remain many non-electrifiable sectors of the economy where no other viable decarbonization tool exists besides hydrogen, such as steel production, where hydrogen serves as a clean alternative to coal-based coke for processing iron ore.

“Green hydrogen will be critical for decarbonizing applications that have thus far been referred to as ‘hard-to-abate’, such as in the chemicals or steel industries,” says Julia Metz, director of Agora Industry.

Additionally, experts don’t yet foresee a path for battery technology to work for long-distance shipping or long-haul flights, both highly polluting industries, so green hydrogen and fuels made from green hydrogen will likely be necessary for those uses too.

Boosting demand to support long-term investment

Given the cost premium of green hydrogen, strong incentives will be needed to make using it in industry, aviation or shipping an economically viable choice while driving down costs for the future.

To date, countries have largely focused on policies like tax credits that encourage production of clean hydrogen or government investments in green hydrogen production and equipment manufacturing facilities.

EU backs North Africa hydrogen pipeline, but is it a green dream?

But scaling hydrogen requires demand-side policies as well. Indeed, we’re seeing planned projects and investments stall for lack of committed buyers. Stable demand-side policies, which can include contracts for differences (government financing for the higher cost of green hydrogen), requirements for a set percentage of hydrogen consumption to be green for certain sectors, and sectoral emissions limits, can help provide that long-term investment certainty.

Absent such policies, new clean hydrogen production projects have largely proven too risky.

How green is green enough?

Policymakers must also ensure they are only incentivizing truly clean hydrogen. Hydrogen produced with electricity largely generated by coal, for instance, can be considerably dirtier than conventional hydrogen production.

How to measure hydrogen emissions has been the source of robust debate in the European Union (EU), US, and elsewhere. Fossil fuel companies have argued for more lenient standards about what counts as clean. They have also supported using hydrogen in parts of the economy that could be more easily and cheaply electrified, distracting from efforts to electrify quickly.

For a region like the EU, which is poised to be an importer as well as a producer of green hydrogen, stricter standards can help ensure truly low-carbon hydrogen production around the world.

China, for instance, has developed its clean hydrogen production with an eye towards meeting the EU standards. China is also placing major bets on the green hydrogen market, as it represents roughly 60% of global electrolyzer production.

This investment is beginning to drive down equipment costs, which could help make green hydrogen more commercially viable. It could also give China a long-term competitive edge in the global market.

Smart policies create economic opportunity

However, other countries with abundant, low-cost renewable energy resources are also recognizing the potential of green hydrogen as both an export opportunity and a way to reduce reliance on volatile natural gas imports.

For instance, India’s Green Hydrogen Mission targets the production of 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030, and Brazil has an official goal to be the most competitive low-carbon hydrogen producer by that same year.

To fully capture the economic opportunity, new hydrogen producers will need to ensure their output meets international environmental standards while building up those domestic industries that require green hydrogen to cut emissions, ensuring more economic benefits are realized domestically.

“Governments play a key role in driving innovation that creates economic opportunities across the value chain,” says Metz of Agora Industry. “By supporting green hydrogen investment and adopting targeted industrial policies, they can strengthen resilience while advancing climate and industrial progress.”

It’s time for hydrogen sobriety

The hydrogen bubble has burst. But despite the dire headlines, we cannot achieve global climate goals without some amount of truly clean hydrogen.

If the last few years were dominated by hydrogen hype, we need the future to be dominated neither by hype nor nihilism, but by a sober focus on designing policy to build demand for green hydrogen in the few, important sectors where it’s really needed. 

Let’s hope the era of hydrogen sobriety has finally arrived. 

The post Hydrogen beyond the hype: The green fuel’s narrow but crucial role in a decarbonized economy appeared first on Climate Home News.

Hydrogen beyond the hype: The green fuel’s narrow but crucial role in a decarbonized economy

Climate Change

DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations

Published

6 hours ago

June 20, 2026

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Bonn talks close

‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.

JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.

‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.

US-Iran deal

PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.

‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.

‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.

Around the world

OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.

1.1 billion

The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.

Latest climate research

Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.

Spotlight

Oceans rising at UN climate talks

The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.

Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.

They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.

At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.

These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.

‘Elevate action’

Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.

The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.

COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.

In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:

“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”

Ocean dialogue breakout group. Credit: IISD/ENB, Maja Schmidt-Thomé.

Strategies and finance

The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.

One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).

Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)

Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.

(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)

Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.

‘Political momentum’

With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.

Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:

“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”

Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.

Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.

More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.

“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.

Watch, read, listen

‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.

NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.

ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.

Coming up

20-28 June: London climate action week
21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament

Pick of the jobs

Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations

Climate Change

Planning For Life After Coal Cost a Montana County Commissioner His Seat

Published

7 hours ago

June 20, 2026

Alice Rush

The fiscal future of Musselshell County is uncertain after the coal mine that anchors its economy helped defeat the official working to diversify the area’s revenue streams.

By Jake Bolster

Robert Pancratz couldn’t believe it.

Planning For Life After Coal Cost a Montana County Commissioner His Seat

Climate Change

El Niño Is Here and Will Have ‘Big Consequences’ for Global Weather

Published

7 hours ago

June 20, 2026

Alice Rush

A deep pool of warm water that forms in the Western Pacific could bring strong storms to Southern California and throughout the South while increasing the risks of Western wildfires.

Interview by Jenni Doering, Living on Earth

From our collaborating partner Living on Earth, public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by Jenni Doering with author Kevin Trenberth.