The recent rains that washed through West Africa didn’t fall just on one country. They caused severe flooding and fatalities across Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Mali and Niger.
The drought that came before this latest disaster didn’t single out one place either. Farmers across the region were faced with destitution from crop losses.
Extreme weather fuelled by climate change does not respect national borders or geographical boundaries. This simple fact has multiple knock-on effects and dictates how we should respond to such crises – including through international coordination.
In September, Nigeria’s Alau Dam collapsed as a result of floods in the country’s northeastern region, killing up to 1,000 people and displacing a million. The rupture of the dam was mainly due to poor maintenance over the years – and a government failure to heed warnings of danger.
A week later, across the border in Cameroon, the government there decided to release water from the Lagdo dam, after the same bout of heavy rainfall had increased levels. This put added pressure on 11 states downstream in the part of Nigeria that was already scrambling to deal with the crisis – although the water releases were regulated, and alerts were issued.
Nepal says China withholds “essential” info on bursting Himalayan glacial lakes
South Asia is also grappling with cross-border river-related threats. Izabella Koziell, deputy director general of ICIMOD, a Nepal-based research centre working to protect the Hindu Kush Himalaya, said the mountain region is “falling under increasing risk from the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and air pollution”.
“Each of these risks are mobile and not limited by national borders,” she said. The region extends over 3,500 kilometres from Afghanistan to Myanmar, making cooperation between countries essential, she added. “Over two billion people living within the mountains and downstream will be affected by changes that happen here.”
Shared prosperity
Climate change is fuelling new and complex risks that require countries – and the international community – to look beyond their own borders and siloes. But that is not how governments and their partners have typically responded to the threats.
“Adaptation is still very much seen as a local to national issue. Thinking more broadly and working regionally is challenging. We saw this with the COVID-19 pandemic – just how difficult it was to get coordinated regional and global responses on something which affected everyone,” said Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, a senior research fellow at ODI Global, a London-based think-tank.
Opitz-Stapleton has been working with a research programme called “Supporting Pastoralism and Agriculture in Recurrent and Protracted Crises” (SPARC) to help policymakers better understand and manage transboundary climate risks, including in Africa.
She told Climate Home: “Countries tend to think first about their own sovereignty and protecting their own populations. This is understandable – but when we are facing challenges like this, everyone going in on their own is insufficient.”
Food and finance
People’s livelihoods and future prosperity are dependent on a globalised economy and shared resources, with flows of trade and finance binding countries together across continents. And it is becoming increasingly how clear how climate change – which affects the whole planet – can hijack development efforts in an interconnected world.
A simple example of this is food. In Senegal, changing dietary habits have led to a sudden surge in imports of rice from Southeast Asia. This now makes Senegal’s food security dependent on countries far away that are facing their own severe climate risks – because how they adapt to those risks will influence rice supplies to West Africa.
In 2022, India temporarily banned wheat exports after a severe heatwave jeopardised its own domestic supplies. The move led to a sudden jump in the price of this crucial commodity, impacting countries in Africa, such as Kenya, which rely on imports.
Transboundary climate risks come in many guises – from shared ecosystems to migration patterns, infectious diseases and ocean resources.
Finance is one example where the risks and impacts can be indirect and not always immediately clear. Financial firms are often greatly exposed to climate-related risks through investments in sectors from energy to mining.
When a gold mine is hit by drought or flooding, for example, this can lead to plant shutdowns, lower production and a higher probability of debt default.
Money is as transboundary as the climate. Banks that fail to carry out climate risk assessments across whole supply chains could be creating the conditions for stranded assets in the future.
Adaptation winners and losers
By focusing solely on how to adapt to issues within borders the problem is pushed into someone else’s backyard – the adaptation equivalent of whack-a-mole.
“The problem is the way we crafted the policy,” said George Wamukoya, team lead at AGNES, a non-profit which advises African governments on climate issues.
“We focused on ‘national’ adaptation plans and commitments which leads people to think inward. There is competition among neighbouring countries who don’t want to share resources or investment. This is despite the need for regional and global support to achieve these plans. We need to be alive to these facts,” he added.
Examples abound of so-called “maladaptation”. This can occur when a country seeks to control coastal erosion and flooding by building protective infrastructure but ends up pushing the problem to shorelines further away where the impacts might be worse. Or switching to climate-resilient crops can reduce harvests – and increase prices – for more mainstream varieties.
Global adaptation goal
On the other hand, done right, adaptation can lead to shared resilience between neighbours and strengthen global supply chains. Instead of redistributing the risk, the idea is to confront it with collaboration.
As the world kicks off two weeks of climate negotiations in Baku next week, campaigners are hoping that transboundary risks are higher on the agenda.
Last year’s UN climate summit, COP28, made only two references to transboundary issues in its final decision text. New work on adaptation did come out of the Dubai talks, including a programme to develop indicators to measure progress on targets under the Global Goal on Adaptation.
So far, the two-year initiative – called the UAE-Belem work programme – has led to over 5,000 indicators being submitted for consideration. Yet only 22 of these are related to transboundary climate risks.
This speaks to a lack of awareness among states of the shared risks they face and the dangers of ignoring them. Both Kenya and Ethiopia – which share a border that is porous especially for pastoralist communities – failed to mention cross-border risks in their national adaptation plans (NAPs) submitted to the UN.
Ensuring that transboundary risks are included in the UAE-Belem work programme is seen as crucial, as its results will dictate how adaptation policy and finance are set in the future. “If we don’t have these indicators, then it becomes very hard to track these particular risks,” said Wamukoya.
COP29 and beyond
Experts agree that national and local governments need to do a better job of assessing cross-border risks and working with their neighbours to understand how to collectively address them. To date, they feel that not enough work has been done to research transboundary risks and work out strategies for tackling them.
“We need to demystify the issue for countries and convince them that, when you include transboundary issues, this will not limit access to resources. We also need to show how and where these risks are occurring within the five subregions of Africa, because some places will be more exposed than others,” adds Wamukoya.
COP29 offers a unique forum to address transboundary risks that are global in nature – and this perspective also needs to be applied to finance for adaptation projects, where multiple countries are involved, Wamukoya said. COP29 is tasked with agreeing a new global goal for climate finance, he noted.
Rich nations “on track” to double adaptation finance but huge gap persists
To date, adaptation financing typically goes to a single country, and there are few mechanisms for allowing funding to be split across states – although the Green Climate Fund has taken a regional approach in some of its projects.
Opitz-Stapleton – who is helping organise several COP29 events on transboundary climate risks at the Climate, Peace and Transboundary Climate Pavilion, the first such COP pavilion – noted that awareness of the issue has grown.
But, she said, “many countries are not adequately assessing these risks and there isn’t capacity to manage them”. “They need to be incorporated within a country’s adaptation plans and actually acted on,” she emphasised.
Sponsored by ODI Global. See our supporters page for what this means.
Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK.
The Climate, Peace and Transboundary Resilience Pavilion at COP29 will host 30 events with world-leading experts, including heads of state and other leading representatives from governments, climate funds, aid agencies, civil society organisations, and more. All events will be livestreamed. For more information visit the Pavilion page here.
The post Cross-border climate risks can’t be solved in isolation appeared first on Climate Home News.
Climate Change
“Sink or swim”: WA Gov hugely underestimating decline in regional gas demand while sleeping on green exports, new report finds
PERTH, Tuesday 13 October 2026 — A new report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals green commodity exports are an untapped economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, while offering a genuine solution for decarbonising Asia.
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State is a comprehensive analysis of the declining gas market in Asia, and the untapped economic opportunity for WA to become a global leader in green commodity exports while driving the regional shift away from fossil fuels.
The report offers key recommendations for the WA Government to support regional decarbonisation through an orderly phase out of gas exports in favour of green iron and other green exports. It comes as global climate leaders from across business, politics and advocacy prepare to meet for the Global Citizen Now: Perth event focused on decarbonising WA.
Key findings:
- Gas demand is falling across WA’s core markets in Asia: Gas demand fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline, driven by a combination of global geopolitical factors and domestic concerns.
- Policy shifts in key markets since the war on Iran now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas: Japan, South Korea and China have legislated energy plans that prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- New WA gas would arrive in a saturated, uncertain Asian market filled with cheaper gas: The US is now the world’s largest liquefied gas producer and plans to double its capacity as it also targets Asian markets.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to sustain WA’s economy: WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars.
- Exporting more WA gas is likely to delay or impede Asia decarbonisation: Despite claims by the gas industry, there is no evidence that WA gas is displacing coal in Asia, and in fact diverts resources from genuine decarbonisation options.
Geoff Bice, WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said: “As our export partners in Asia shift away from expensive and polluting gas, the WA Government has a golden opportunity to pivot our economy to green exports, like green iron, which is the most effective way to help our region to decarbonise.
“The writing is on the wall: gas is in decline, renewables are our future. In this context, it makes zero sense for the government to encourage high risk projects like Woodside’s reckless Browse gas proposal at Scott Reef.
“This report clearly shows that the WA Government faces a choice: sink or swim. They can either allow the gas industry to keep ripping off West Australians and continue propping up its decline, or choose the path that will deliver enormous benefits to the state and the world by becoming a leader in the rapidly expanding green economy.”
Tom Quinn, Managing Director of Springmount Advisory: “Western Australia prospers when it looks to the future and builds for future demand. Twenty years from now, what the world needs is green commodities made using WAs abundant renewable resources. Just like it did with iron ore in the 1950s and gas in the 1970s, WA should look to the future and build what the world will need, not sunsetting industries like gas that are already past their peak.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org
Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lucy.keller@greenpeace.org
A report from Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Springmount Advisory reveals the untapped green economic opportunity for Western Australia in a declining Asian gas market, which also offers a genuine solution for decarbonisation in Asia.
Is Western Australia clinging to a fading gas industry while a thriving green future passes it by? As major Asian trading partners rapidly pivot away from volatile gas imports toward cheap solar and battery storage, this report exposes a high-stakes choice: risk becoming stranded in an oversupplied fossil fuel market, or harness WA’s unmatched sun and wind to lead the global clean energy transition.
Summary
From Gas to Green: Building Western Australia’s Future State reveals that Western Australia (WA) faces a critical juncture as falling Asian gas demand, geopolitical gas supply volatility and accelerating renewable energy deployment undermine the long-term economic viability of gas exports. By harnessing its world-class wind and solar resources, the report demonstrates that WA can execute an orderly phase-out of gas and pioneer a green commodity export economy that could generate $987 billion in economic value by 2060, create 24,000 ongoing jobs, and drive a 9.6% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Key Findings
- Gas demand is falling in Asia – WA can no longer rely on gas exports: Gas demand in core Asian markets fell in 2025 and is projected to continue to decline in 2026. Legislated energy plans in Japan, South Korea, and China now prioritise renewables and nuclear over gas.
- Asia is increasing renewables, importing gas just gets in the way: Evidence from markets like Thailand suggests that gas imports are increasingly crowding out cheaper renewable energy investments and battery storage rather than displacing coal, locking in more emissions over time.
- Green commodities offer a real solution to decarbonise Asia – this is a major win for WA: With world-class renewables, WA can lead Australia’s green commodity exports, which by 2060 could be worth almost a trillion dollars ($987 billion) and support a genuine 9.6% reduction in global emissions.
Recommendations to WA government
Recommendation 1: Plan an orderly gas phase-out aligned with a trading partner pivot plan
Implement a managed, orderly phase-out of gas exports aligned with trading partners’ decarbonisation pathways, rather than waiting for demand to collapse, by:
- Developing and implementing a staged phase-out of gas facilities aligned with feedstock supply expiry or typical end of facility lifespans.
- Committing to no new gas development for gas expansion, including Browse and Kimberley fields.
- Developing new, reciprocal trade relationships with existing gas trade partners, structured to progressively replace gas exports with green commodities – integrated with recommendation 2.
Recommendation 2: Develop an integrated green commodity export strategy, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub
Establish an integrated green commodity export strategy that immediately prioritises green iron development, positioning WA as a global green iron manufacturing hub, by:
- Committing to green commodity export targets to give industry and investors a clear demand signal.
- Prioritising green iron as the lead sector within the broader green commodity strategy, given WA’s iron ore endowment and first-mover potential.
Recommendation 3: Reject false solutions such as carbon dumping (CCS) and blue hydrogen
Reject carbon dumping (also described as carbon capture and storage, or CCS) and blue hydrogen as viable decarbonisation technologies, and prioritise green hydrogen and proven renewables for clean energy and fuel production by:
- Excluding blue hydrogen projects (and CCS-dependent projects) from all government support programs.
- Requiring existing hydrogen-based production (including ammonia, methanol, synthetic fuels) to have clear, near-term transition timelines to switch to green hydrogen production.
What you can do
Together, we can push for a prosperous green future.
You can help by:
- Sending an email to Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, calling on them to reject Browse.
- Sharing this story to help more Australians understand what’s at stake.
- Encouraging your friends and family to take action.
REPORT: “From Gas to Green” Building Western Australia’s Future State
Cleaner cooking projects in the UN carbon market will have to set aside a share of their credits to insure against the risk that the trees they save are lost to fire, drought or logging, after the market’s regulator rejected calls to exempt the sector.
The requirement is part of a new rulebook that the Paris Agreement carbon market regulator – the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body – approved last Friday for programmes that aim to cut emissions by distributing new and cleaner cookstoves in regions that still burn wood or charcoal for cooking.
These are the UN mechanism’s first rulebooks for cookstoves, one of the carbon market’s most popular credit types and also one of its most criticised for overstating climate benefits.
They consist of two methodologies: one for programmes that aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions by distributing more efficient cookstoves that burn less wood or charcoal, and a separate methodology for projects shifting households to lower-emissions cookers running on electricity or liquid petroleum gas (LPG).
Mkhuthazi Steleki, the South African chair of the Supervisory Body, said “this decision gives cleaner cooking projects a new pathway under the UN carbon market, with clear rules to ensure that each credit represents a real and credible emission reduction”.
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Exemption push rejected
More efficient cookstove projects earn credits based on the amount of carbon they save by preserving trees that would have otherwise been cut down and burned for fuel. But if those trees later burn in a wildfire or are logged, the carbon stored would be released anyway, erasing the climate benefits of the credits.
Several carbon credit developers, conservation NGOs and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) disputed that cookstove projects face this risk, in what critics described as a “coordinated lobbying campaign”.
They argued that, unlike forest protection schemes, this type of credit represents a “flow” of avoided emissions rather than a “stock” of stored carbon that can be released. They also warned that requiring a buffer would impose disproportionate costs and undermine the financial viability of these activities.
But the UN carbon market regulator was not persuaded by the argument. It decided that projects would have to protect against this reversal risk by handing over a percentage of credits to a so-called “buffer pool” instead of selling them.
‘New paradigm’
The amount of credits to be given up is calculated by applying different methods for natural risks, like wildfires, droughts or hurricanes, and human-caused ones, such as logging or land clearing.
For natural risks, project developers will need to apply local risk values derived from new modelling published by a group of independent scientists.
Campaigners have broadly welcomed the decision. Federica Dossi, an expert at Brussels-based advocacy group Carbon Market Watch, said it sets a new paradigm for calculating reversal risk based on empirical data. “This approach is grounded in science and we hope to see this now being adopted by other carbon crediting mechanisms in the voluntary market,” she added.
Backers claim this method is more rigorous than current practice in the voluntary carbon market, which largely relies on expert guesswork.
Pre-COP draws attention to Pacific’s climate plight and 1.5C go