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Key developments
China missed 2024 targets
INTENSITY SLIP: China’s carbon intensity – its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of economic output – only fell by 3.4% in 2024, “below its goal of 3.9%”, Reuters reported. Citing official data, it added that “fossil-fuel energy consumption per unit of economic growth [energy intensity] fell by 3.8% in 2024, beating an annual target of 2.5%”. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, attributed the shortfall to “rapid growth in the energy consumption in industries and the civilian sector as a result of post-Covid economic recovery and frequent extreme weather events”.
EMISSIONS RISE: The data showed China’s “fossil[-fuel related] CO2 emissions increased by 0.7%”, wrote Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), adding that China’s 2025 carbon-intensity target of an 18% cut on 2005 levels will now be “extremely hard to meet”. Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, told Carbon Brief that changes to the energy-intensity methodology – which now only covers energy from fossil fuels – “may be a key reason” for its sharp drop in 2024.
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RECORD HEAT: China’s climate in 2024 was “generally poor”, the current affairs newspaper Guangming Daily reported in its coverage of China’s Climate Bulletin 2024, citing a China Meteorological Administration (CMA) official as saying extreme weather events were “more frequent and stronger”, partly due to “climate warming”. Xinhua said in its coverage that 2024 was the warmest year on record and that the number of “heavy rain” events was “four times higher than normal”.
STAYING THE COURSE: Meanwhile, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) outlined a number of “key tasks” for 2025 in a new notice, Xinhua reported. These included adding 200 gigawatts (GW) of “new energy capacity” and for non-fossil energy to comprise 60% of capacity and 20% of consumption. (China’s solar association estimated that at least 215GW of solar alone will come online this year, Bloomberg said.) The NEA also aims in 2025 to increase total electricity generation to 10,600 terawatt-hours, Xinhua added. The notice stated that coal and gas production will “increase”. Echoing its earlier work conference, the NEA also listed a number of priority thematic tasks – first among these is to “strengthen” energy security, followed by “deepening” China’s energy transition.
Climate veteran returns to government
LI’S RETURN: The Ministry of Environment and Ecology (MEE) brought back former official and “climate diplomacy veteran” Li Gao as a vice-minister, replacing the outgoing Zhao Yingmin, Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper reported. Li, it added, joined MEE when it was formed in 2018 and was responsible for “organising China’s response to climate change”. Economic news outlet Caijing noted that one of the “most important” tasks awaiting Li will be “promoting” China’s voluntary carbon market (CCER), as well as “helping [to] finalise and publish” China’s next climate pledge (nationally determined contribution, NDC).
BLUE-SKY THINKING: MEE has pledged to “effectively eliminate severe air pollution by the end of 2025”, Reuters reported, by “ramp[ing] up efforts in pollution control and emissions reduction”. Part of this effort, it added, will be to “boost the share of new energy vehicles and machinery”. Other plans to reduce air pollution include addressing “clean heating, ultra-low emission transformation [and] volatile organic chemical controls”, the state-run newspaper China Daily said.
POLICY FLURRY: Meanwhile, MEE issued a new policy to improve innovation “in the field of ecological and environmental protection”, energy news outlet International Energy Net reported. China Daily reported MEE “unveiled two new [CCER] methodologies” for coal-mine gas and streetlights. The ministry will also establish mechanisms for “voluntary disclosure” of corporate greenhouse gas emissions by 2027, business news outlet EastMoney said. Elsewhere, China Daily reported on the ongoing “compilation” of China’s ecological code. The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily said China released new guidelines on “green finance”.
China hosts IPCC meeting
HANGZHOU HUDDLE: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) held a meeting in China for the first time, the science-focused newspaper Science and Technology Daily reported. The outlet quoted CMA director Chen Zhenlin telling delegates gathered in the city of Hangzhou that China, as a “developing country”, is “actively” promoting a “comprehensive” energy transition. Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin also said at the event that China is an “active contributor to IPCC reports and a diligent practitioner of scientific response to climate change”, according to Xinhua.
TIMELINE CONTROVERSY: The IPCC failed for a third time to agree on a timeline for the organisation’s seventh assessment cycle, Carbon Brief coverage of the event explained, although the outlines for several key reports were agreed. Climate Home cited unnamed delegates as saying there was a “disconnect between public statements from Chinese officials and negotiating positions in closed meetings”, which it said included pushing back against including the IPCC reports in the next “global stocktake”.
CLIMATE LEADER?: In response to a question about the US’ absence from the meeting, China’s foreign ministry said China will “fulfil its climate commitments and make active contributions” to climate action, the Paper reported. Elsewhere, COP30 president-designate Andre Aranha Correa do Lago told Reuters that “others may look to [China] for additional leadership” on climate change. These comments were not quoted by Xinhua, which only reported him saying: “We have to work even harder with China, because China has provided some excellent solutions to combat climate change.”
Trade frictions hit steel
INVESTMENT RESTRICTIONS: The US issued a memo on curbing Chinese investment into “tech, energy and other strategic American sectors”, Bloomberg reported. Separately, the US announced plans to impose an “additional 10% levy on goods from China”, BBC News said. Industry newspaper China Energy Net quoted the state-run trade association China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) saying the investment curbs will “disturb the security and stability of global supply chains”. Chinese president Xi Jinping told policymakers they must “calmly respond to challenges” Bloomberg said. However, the state-supporting Global Times said China may take “retaliatory measures” to the tariffs.
STEEL YOURSELVES: Vietnam, South Korea, India and the EU have revealed new “measures or plans” to curb their Chinese steel imports, Reuters reported, following earlier US tariffs. The “flurry of protectionism will pile pressure on Beijing” to scale back steel production, Bloomberg said. New CREA analysis covered separately by Bloomberg found that China would need to cut coal-based steel production capacity by 15% this year for mills “to meet their 2025 climate goals”.
BATTERY DIPLOMACY: China’s commerce ministry “hopes” for more “green industry cooperation with Europe”, including on electric vehicles (EVs), China Daily reported. Spain has urged the EU to “forge China policy without the US”, according to the Financial Times, which added that it recently received “two Chinese investments in lithium battery production”. Chinese firm CATL will work with Volkswagen on “EV battery research and development”, the Wall Street Journal said. Elsewhere, China and Nigeria have “signed a €7.6bn (£6.3bn) green hydrogen energy deal”, Nigerian newspaper the Nation reported.
Spotlight
What does the 2025 ‘government work report’ say about climate and energy?
China’s “two sessions” kicked off in Beijing this week, with Premier Li Qiang outlining the country’s main policy priorities in the 2025 “report on the work of the government”, widely known as the “government work report”.
Carbon Brief assesses what the report means for climate and energy policy this year.
Key meeting
The “two sessions” (两会) is the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). This year, it runs from 4 to 11 March.
Its centrepiece is the “government work report”, a speech delivered by the premier – the head of China’s State Council, the top body of the country’s central government. This outlines the previous year’s achievements and priorities for the year ahead, including the annual GDP target.
At the meeting, China also releases a report by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, as well as a central and local government budget report.
Climate and energy policy
China pledged to reduce energy intensity – a measure of energy consumption per unit of GDP – by 3% in 2025, the report said. (Note that this measure now excludes renewables and nuclear, meaning it only applies to fossil fuels.)
This target means China will likely “miss its 14th five-year plan energy-intensity target”, Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, told Carbon Brief. Analysis for Carbon Brief found that energy intensity would have needed to fall 6% in both 2024 and 2025.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), wrote on Bluesky that the target was “not strong”, adding that this showed the government “is not prioritising controlling CO2 [carbon dioxide] at the moment”.
He said the new methodology for calculating energy intensity would, in theory, allow fossil-fuel demand to grow by 1.9% in 2025, pushing CO2 emissions up by more than 2%.
The 14th five-year plan’s carbon-intensity target, which measures CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, will likely also be missed, according to the Carbon Brief analysis. China does not typically announce annual carbon-intensity targets in the “government work report”.
Priorities in 2025
China’s climate and energy policy in 2025 will likely follow well-established priorities, such as balancing decarbonisation and energy security, based on the report’s language.
The state-run newspaper China Daily highlighted the report’s support of China’s “dual-carbon” goals on its frontpage, saying that China pledged to “diligently work” towards them.
According to the report, China “will develop major projects for climate-change response and engage in and steer global environmental and climate governance”, it added
A number of climate measures were announced, but Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub and senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Carbon Brief that there were “no major surprises”.
Climate and environmental protection remained a key priority. Renewable energy buildouts will continue, with a particular focus on “new energy bases in desert areas” and offshore wind. The report also recognised the need for China to upgrade its electricity grid to cope with vast renewables additions.
But the report also continued to commit to fossil-fuel infrastructure. This year, it said China will launch “low-carbon upgrade trials” for coal-fired power plants, which are seen as necessary for energy security. (Recent analysis found that a “substantial amount” of new coal capacity will soon come online.)
The separate NDRC report also reinforced coal’s position as a “baseline power source”, announcing that China will “continue to enhance coal production”, Reuters reported.
Consumption and ‘involution’
China’s approach to boosting growth includes a number of stimulus measures. The net impact of these measures on China’s emissions is currently unknown, however.
At this year’s meeting, the government stated that domestic consumption was a key “driving force” for economic growth.
In part, China is putting its hopes – and 300bn yuan ($41bn) – into a consumer trade-in programme, which will likely continue to allow drivers to swap combustion-engine cars for electric vehicles (EVs).
The report also pledged to incentivise “eco-friendly consumption”.
While technological innovation remained a major priority, clean-energy technologies were not explicitly mentioned in this context.
Last year’s “government work report” emphasised the need to “consolidate and enhance [China’s] leading position” in industries such as EVs and hydrogen, as well as to “create new ways of storing energy”.
Instead, this year’s report emphasised the need to combat “involution”, stating it will take “comprehensive” steps to address the problem. Involution refers to the overcrowded markets and price wars plaguing sectors, including EVs and solar panels.
Extreme weather
There was continued recognition of the drag of “natural disasters” on China’s economic growth, with the report pledging to “better guard against and respond” to floods, droughts, typhoons and other extreme weather events.
The “government work report” noted that floods “occurred frequently in some parts of China” last year. This was not explicitly linked to climate change.
However, the NDRC report attributed China’s failure to meet its energy intensity goal in 2024 in part to “frequent extreme weather events””.
A recent Carbon Brief analysis found that, of 114 attribution studies for Chinese extreme weather events, 88 had their “severity or likelihood” increased by climate change.
A full analysis of the climate and energy signals from the two sessions will be published by Carbon Brief after the meetings conclude on 11 March.
Watch, read, listen
HUMAN IMPACT: Shanghai-based current affairs outlet Sixth Tone released a two-part report on how extreme weather in Hunan province, and the government response, has affected some of China’s poorest citizens.
STOCKTAKE: The China consultancy Trivium China’s podcast hosted a wide-ranging discussion on Chinese climate policy, including the recent renewables pricing reform.
ENERGY SECURITY: The Wire China carried a wide-ranging interview with Anders Hove, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, on China’s approach to energy security and other matters.
FINANCE LOOPHOLES: Perspectives Climate Research outlined how Chinese lenders could improve clean-energy lending and “close loopholes for continued fossil fuel support” in a new report supported by Peking University.
2028
The year in which China could peak its carbon emissions, meteorologist Dr Zhang Xiaoye, IPCC Working Group 1 co-chair, said at an event attended online by Carbon Brief.
New science
Impact of climate change on farmers’ crop production in China: a panel Ricardian analysis
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
A new paper concluded that the impact of climate change on Chinese farmers’ crop production is more pronounced for cash crops than grain crops, as well as affecting large farms more than small farms. The authors found that changes in temperature and rainfall “significantly impact” crop revenue, but that adaptation measures by farmers can partly reduce these effects.
Climate change is leading to an ecological trap in a migratory insect
PNAS
Climate change-induced changes in the East Asian summer monsoon are making seasonal migration a “riskier strategy” for the rice leafroller moth – a “severe pest of rice that annually invades the Lower Yangtze River Valley of China from winter-breeding areas further south” – according to a new study. This is resulting in “declining” pest pressure, the paper said.
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China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 6 March 2025: ‘Two sessions’ climate news; New vice-minister; Targets missed appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 6 March 2025: ‘Two sessions’ climate news; New vice-minister; Targets missed
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
