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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

New five-year plans

GENERATION TARGET: China today released its 15th five-year plan for building a “new-type energy system”, according to finance news outlet Cailianshe. It said the plan covered topics including energy sources, power-market reform and China’s role in clean-energy supply chains and climate governance. The plan, published by the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will aim for clean energy to constitute 30% of power generation by 2030 – up from approximately 22% today. It also stated that wind and solar will become the “mainstay” of China’s power mix. The government will work to increase clean-energy consumption, such as by upgrading the grid to “accommodate” 900 gigawatts of distributed energy and promoting emerging solutions such as virtual power plants and hydrogen. The plan also urged the “strengthening” of coal’s role as a “bottom-line guarantee”.

IN THE WORKS: At a meeting on 11 June, China’s State Council approved the “15th five-year plan for building a beautiful China”, reported industry news outlet BJX News. The meeting readout noted the importance of “actively address[ing] climate change” and developing “green production and lifestyles”, it added. The next day, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) approved a series of environment-related five-year plans, including the “15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change”, said business news outlet 21st Century Business Herald article. The full text of the plans is not yet available.

JOBS AND GOVERNANCE: A separate five-year plan on employment included calls to “unlock employment potential” by developing “new energy system” projects, according to current affairs outlet China News. The government also published a white paper on global governance that said the “general public truly feels that nations are taking action and that unity can overcome any obstacle” to address climate change, reported state news agency Xinhua. It added that the paper called on developed countries to “honor their commitments” on climate finance. Foreign minister Wang Yi said in a press conference that China aims to “innovate governance mechanisms” to address issues such as how countries can “achieve” a global low-carbon transition, Xinhua also reported.

Critical mineral barbs

REDUCE DEPENDENCIES: The Group of Seven (G7) major economies have stated that “no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of rare earths”, reported Bloomberg, in “an effort to reduce their reliance on China”. The full communique, which does not mention China by name, said that diversifying supply chains was “urgen[t]”, due to “market concentration”, the “growing use of arbitrary trade restrictions” and the need to “reduce vulnerabilities”. In response, China’s foreign ministry urged the G7 to “stop disrupting the international trade order” with “self-made rules”.

EXPORTS BLOCKED: The Indonesian government’s new nickel production quotas and pricing rules could put $50bn of Chinese investment at risk, Chinese diplomats argued in a letter covered by the Financial Times. Lithium miners in Zimbabwe, including Chinese firms, are asking for more time to build local processing facilities ahead of a 2027 lithium concentrate export ban, said Reuters. Meanwhile, China restricted trade with two US rare-earth companies, in response to the US adding companies including CATL and BYD to a “blacklist”, said the Financial Times. China’s exports to Japan of rare earths used to make permanent magnets remain “negligible”, reported Reuters.

DIALOGUE URGED: EU member states have asked the European Commission to develop new trade instruments to deal with the “economic threat” posed by China, reported the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. Despite “combative rhetoric” ahead of the summit, the Financial Times reported that the 27 leaders opted for dialogue rather than immediate action to address “global macroeconomic imbalances”. Separately, the European Commission plans to impose tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, reported German business newspaper Handelsblatt.

CLIMATE MINISTERIAL: The EU, China and Canada held a climate ministerial, in which Chinese environment minister Huang Runqiu said countries “must strengthen cooperation rather than retreat from it”, said Euronews. Climate outlet Tanpaifang reported that Huang also said COP31 should address “insufficient emission reduction efforts and financial support from developed countries”. According to a European Commission transcript, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said: “We need to act for climate, but also for competitiveness and independence. We cannot afford to depend on third countries.”

Mandatory targets for energy users

NEW TARGETS: From August, the Chinese government will “set binding targets” for companies on how much low-carbon power and non-electric energy they must consume, said Bloomberg. It added that targets will be set for how much low-carbon power provinces must absorb into their grids. Provinces and “key energy-consuming industries” will see their uptake of clean energy monitored on a quarterly basis and be subject to annual assessments by the State Council, said industry news outlet International Energy Net.

END-USER PRESSURE: The announcement marks the first time that China has established targets for non-fossil energy consumption at the “end-user level”, reported economic news outlet Jiemian. It added that the previous system, which only covered power, placed the responsibility for absorbing renewable energy into the grid “primarily” onto local governments and power grid companies.

SUPPORTING THE MARKET: The new measures will “help address grid integration challenges and promote better utilisation of renewable energy”, an official at the National Energy Administration told reporters, according to Xinhua. The official said it would also help boost demand for other low-carbon industries, such as “green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol”. Liu Guobin, vice-president of the China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute said in an “explanation” posted on International Energy Net that the measures would also “convey clear…expectations to the market” for the long-term outlook for renewable energy, “guiding the rational allocation of investment”.

More China news

  • BECALMED: China’s thermal power generation rose 2.1% year-on-year in May, as “lower wind speeds curbed renewable energy growth”, reported Reuters.
  • TRUCK TARGET: The government issued a new plan for developing “new-energy heavy duty trucks (HDTs)” that aims to have sales of electric, hydrogen and other low-carbon HDTs account for 40% of new truck sales by 2030, said Xinhua.
  • SUPERMASSIVE SYSTEM: China’s total power capacity reached 4,000 gigawatts in May, reported BJX News, larger than that of the US, EU, India, Russia and Japan combined. Coal’s share of the capacity mix fell to 32%, while the non-fossil share rose to 62%.
  • EXPORT DRIVER: China’s exports of electric vehicles (EVs) rose 54% year-on-year in May to $10bn by value and lithium-battery exports “rose 37% to $8bn”, but solar cell exports fell 7% by value to $2bn, said Caixin. The thinktank Ember found that Chinese EV exports to south-east Asia, particularly Thailand and the Philippines, reached an “all-time high” of $1.2bn.
  • ONGOING RISK: The heavy rainfall seen throughout June, as well as drought, is likely to continue during China’s flood season, said the Ministry of Emergency Management in comments covered by Jiemian
  • PROJECTION PUSHBACK: The China Energy Research Society’s Wang Weiquan described projections by BloombergNEF of China’s emissions reduction and share of coal in the power mix as “overly optimistic” and “even radical”, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily.

Spotlight 

What is in China’s new three-year action plan for industry?

China has issued a new action plan for energy conservation and reducing carbon emissions across nine heavy industries.

In this issue, Carbon Brief examines how the plan will impact China’s industrial development and decarbonisation.

China will conduct an “intensive campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades” across heavy industry between 2026 and 2028.

The plan targets nine key industries: steel; electrolytic aluminum; cement; flat glass; oil refining; ethylene; synthetic ammonia; methanol; and coal-fired power.

After 2028, it said that production capacity that does not meet efficiency standards will be phased out and that efforts will be broadened to other industries.

Combined, power and industry make up the vast majority of China’s emissions profile.

Emissions in some of these sectors – notably, steel and cement – have been falling. However, chemical-industry emissions have experienced double-digit growth.

China’s power sector, which generates the majority of its electricity through coal, is responsible for around 40% of the country’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Focused on efficiency

The plan outlined several measures for companies to take to reduce their energy use and emissions profile.

According to a Carbon Brief count, the majority are focused on energy efficiency, such as promoting high-efficiency industrial processes and upgrading energy-consuming equipment.

More than 70% of China’s steel, aluminium, cement and flat glass capacity does not meet energy efficiency benchmarks, said a government official in a Q&A published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Yang Zhou, senior advisor China at Agora Energiewende, told Carbon Brief that the policy will “pick the last lowest hanging fruit” in terms of eliminating low-efficiency capacity. After this, she said, the focus will turn to entering a “deep-water” phase of decarbonising industrial capacity, as well as making it more efficient.

Some of the measures that companies are encouraged to take in the plan do directly link to decarbonisation. These include developing “hydrogen metallurgy” and sourcing low-carbon materials and fuels, as well as increasing electrification and renewable power usage.

The coal-power industry should improve flexibility, decouple combined heat and power operations and integrate biomass and renewable energy into their operations, it said.

Coal plants are expected to reduce coal consumption per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity by “at least five grams of standard coal” and carbon emissions per kWh by 10%-20%, if not more.

The document said that the share of coal-fired power capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks should improve by 15 percentage points by 2028. This rises to 20 percentage points for the other eight industries.

By 2028, according to the NDRC, the plan aims to cut energy use by more than 100m tonnes of standard coal per year and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 200m tonnes.

Supporting business

Companies will receive support from the central government, which will subsidise 20% of the total investment that “approved” projects require.

Provinces should “fully leverage” pricing mechanisms to encourage retrofitting, said the policy.

Local policymakers can now add a surcharge of up to 0.1 yuan ($0.15) per kWh to market-traded electricity prices for non-compliant producers – which finance outlet Caixin said was a “central” tool for enforcement.

The South China Morning Post quoted an unnamed analyst, however, saying the policy may not “deliver its intended effects”, as some industries still receive subsidised electricity from local governments.

Companies will also be able to use verified CO2 emission reductions from approved projects to “offset” emissions from “new, renovated or expanded” dual-high projects. For industries covered by China’s carbon market, this may be formalised in their emissions allowances.

The NDRC official said that support should be provided to “ensure they receive reasonable returns on their carbon emission allowances”.

The policy “seeks to strike a balance” between energy security and climate goals, rejecting the “radical thinking of ‘one-size-fits-all shutdowns and phase-outs’”, according to a widely-read commentary by Sprinting Power Worker, a “self-media” WeChat account.

“For industries such as coal power, steel and cement, a gradual capacity reduction is expected due to market forces,” said Yang. She added:

“For growing sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, China’s strategy is to expand capacity, [albeit] increasingly concentrated, scaled-up and efficient. Continued decarbonisation will require large-scale deployment of solutions like electrification, green power-green hydrogen coupling and circular economy.”

Watch, read, listen

SULPHURIC SLOWDOWN: Rhodium Group published an analysis of how China’s efforts to restrict exports of sulphuric acid could impact global electrification efforts.

ARCTIC ACTIVITY: The Circumpolar podcast explored the variety of interests, including energy and the environment, driving China’s actions in the Arctic.

TRANSITION IN NUMBERS: Thinktank Agora Energiewende hosted a webinar on its new report, which outlined key trends in China’s energy transition.

CARBON TAX: The Center for Strategic and International Studies looked into how China is responding to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism.


4.9%

The amount by which China’s oil consumption is expected to fall in 2026 compared to the year before, according to a report by a thinktank under oil giant PetroChina, covered by Reuters. It said the decline is due to the “pivot to new energy and high ​oil prices due to the Iran war”, according to the report.


New science

  • Economically developed Chinese cities “transferred” 42% of their greenhouse gas emissions related to plug-in electric vehicles to less developed cities in 2020, “substantially increasing” the recipients’ climate mitigation costs | Nature Cities
  • Renewable energy development “significantly reduces” urban-rural income inequality in Chinese cities | World Development
  • Grain trading between Chinese provinces increased more than fivefold between 1980 and 2020 and production shifted northward, driving a more than 217% increase in “embodied nitrogen losses and greenhouse gas emissions” | Nature Food

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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu. It is edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

The post China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?

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China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.

The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period.

These include five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developing renewable energy.

There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as for peaking carbon emissions

China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.

The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies.

Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets.

Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030.

What does the climate plan cover?

The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and the National Energy Administration.

The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change.

For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEE Q&A.

They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030.

China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period.

Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”.

She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement climate pledges for 2030 and 2035.

In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity – its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels.

Last year, president Xi Jinping personally announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”.

The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy, according to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government.

Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity.

Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans.

These include:

  • Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five years
  • Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
  • Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
  • Strengthening climate adaptation
  • Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech

What does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?

The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear.

The target previously appeared in the overarching five-year plan, as well as the plan for building a “Beautiful China”.

The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, says Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). 

She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects.

She points to an MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030.

The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e”.

In addition, Chen says, measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target.

According to iGDP analysis of biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).

Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below.

Methane is China’s main source of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions by gas, MtCO2e. Stacked bar chart from 2005 to 2021 showing total emissions rising to over 2,700 MtCO2e. Methane consistently accounts for the largest share, followed by Nitrous Oxide and F-gases. Source: iGDP analysis of China’s first Biennial Transparency Report and fourth Biennial Update Report - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)
iGDP analysis of China’s first Biennial Transparency Report and fourth Biennial Update Report.

China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions.

The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.

For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.

What does the plan say about global climate governance?

One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance.

By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area.

It says China’s climate action could also feed into the Global Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system.

China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds.

Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes on LinkedIn that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.

Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets.

The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.

Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.

Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses.

The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds.

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Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline

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About a quarter of the countries signed up to the Paris Agreement are still breaching its rules by failing to submit a new national climate plan, 18 months after the February 2025 deadline.

Forty-five nations had not submitted a plan known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to the Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee’s (PAICC) newly-published report of its 7-10 July 2026 meeting. One, Oman, has published it since the meeting.

Twelve countries ignored the committee’s repeated attempts to find out why they had not yet produced a climate plan, the report said. They will be invited to the committee’s next meeting, from September 1-4, so it can identify the challenges and constraints they face.

Members of the committee are divided, as they were at their last meeting, on whether to name those countries publicly and will debate the question again in September.

The PAICC does not have any power to punish governments, as building these powers into the Paris Agreement was thought to be so controversial that it could have stopped some governments from joining, experts have previously told Climate Home News.

A key requirement of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement is that governments publish a more ambitious NDC every five years, setting targets to reduce their planet-heating emissions and outlining their policies to adapt to climate change, in order to meet the accord’s goals on limiting global warming and protecting people from its effects.

The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in 2025.

Some medium-sized emitters

Countries without an updated NDC include Egypt, Vietnam, Argentina and the Phillippines, all of which rank among the world’s 40 largest greenhouse gas emitters. The rest of the countries are smaller, poorer nations, with many in Africa or the Caribbean.

Some nations have argued that they cannot put together an NDC – which requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy – because of exceptional circumstances. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC committee, seen by Climate Home News, says that the country’s civil war has led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.

    The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement, although the US submitted a 2035 NDC under the Biden administration before Donald Trump pulled the US out of the UN climate accords.

    The committee also expressed concern that the UN’s NDC registry continued to label the climate plans of countries that are no longer party to the Paris Agreement as “active”, according to its report. The US submission has since been archived.

    Since the last PAICC meeting in March, ten countries have published NDCs. The committee did not name them but they include India, Algeria, Cameroon and Guyana.

    The post Quarter of countries still missing UN climate plans 18 months after deadline appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    China’s coal power rebounds as record clean energy goes to waste

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    China’s use of coal for electricity grew in the first half of 2026 as a record amount of wind and solar power was wasted through curtailment, new research has found.

    The world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter brought 30 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity into operation in the six months to June and coal-fired generation rose 3% after falling last year, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM). Only 2.7GW of coal power was retired in the same period.

    The coal expansion stems from a surge in power plant approvals that followed power shortages caused primarily by high coal prices in 2021, when blackouts and factory shutdowns hit roughly 20 Chinese provinces. Local governments responded by fast-tracking new coal projects as insurance against future outages.

    A further 274 GW of coal capacity – equivalent to roughly a fifth of China’s existing coal fleet – is already either under construction or has permits to be built, meaning much of the sector’s expansion is locked in for years, the report says.

      “Climate concern”

      Qi Qin, the report’s author, said the coal lock-in is a “climate concern”. “After coal power plants are built, they will seek revenue and operating hours for decades and that can crowd out clean power and slow the retirement of the older coal power units,” she added.

      The coal buildout is happening at the same time as Beijing signals a gradual shift in its energy rhetoric. In a document published last April, the Chinese government called for the country to “reasonably control” both China’s capacity to generate electricity from coal and, for the first time, how much electricity it actually generates from coal.

      China has also pledged in its latest five-year plan to cut carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product – known as carbon intensity – by 17% between 2026 and 2030. It plans to reach net zero by 2060.

      But, according to Qi, there is still a real gap between the direction of national policy and what is happening on the ground.

      Growing renewables curtailments

      While China generated less than half of its electricity from coal for the first time in the six months to last June, growing demand for electricity meant coal power generation still rose 3.4%, reversing a roughly 1% decline recorded in 2025, the report said.

      Available clean electricity from solar and wind, which have seen a record expansion in China, would have been more than enough to meet the extra demand and drive coal power down if it had been fully used, the report said. Instead, the amount of clean electricity wasted kept growing.

      Estimated rates of curtailment, the intentional reduction of electricity from a source, for wind and solar were up by about a half in the six-month period compared to last year, wasting the equivalent of Indonesia’s annual electricity output.



      Coal’s protected status

      Researchers said that was caused by the Chinese grid’s inability to absorb the additional clean electricity, in addition to energy contracts and pricing mechanisms skewed in favour of coal power.

      Chinese coal generators are required to sign long-term contracts covering a fixed share of the previous year’s output, now standing at 70%. Qi said that, out of fear of electricity shortages, regulators introduced these arrangements to protect coal power plants by guaranteeing them predictable prices and utilisation rates.

      Additionally, China has also begun paying coal plants to stand ready to generate electricity, rather than for actually running, through new capacity payments introduced this year.

      China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035

      Qi said that, while each of these mechanisms has a legitimate purpose on its own, they now combine to give coal power excessive protections. “When renewables are abundant, they [coal operators] don’t have the incentive and are not required to ramp down,” she added.

      The report suggested lowering, or even suspending, coal-specific contract minimums in provinces that are experiencing clean energy being wasted or prolonged periods of zero or negative electricity prices. That would help coal transition to a more flexible backup role and facilitate the integration of renewables, the researchers argued.

      They also urged the Chinese authorities to halt permits for new coal power projects and reassess those that have already been permitted, while favouring grid expansion, energy trade across provinces and storage as ways to boost energy reliability.

      The post China’s coal power rebounds as record clean energy goes to waste appeared first on Climate Home News.

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