- What timeline options were delegates debating?
- How did the timeline discussions unfold?
- What were the main points of disagreement?
- Why is the IPCC in a ‘serious funding crisis’?
- How have scientists reacted?
- What other issues remain unresolved?
- How are the IPCC AR7 reports progressing?
- How might the IPCC use AI and enhance gender inclusivity?
Climate change is intensifying rainfall in Southern Africa, where rapid urbanisation and poor drainage made recent flooding in Botswana and South Africa deadly, a group of scientists said, while a separate study showed some of the continent’s biggest cities are being squeezed by wet and dry extremes.
Last month, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa suffered five consecutive days of heavy rainfall which caused severe flooding across the region, killing at least 31 people, including six children, and displacing about 5,000 others.
Such episodes are becoming more frequent in a warming world, found scientists working with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, based in Botswana, South Africa, the UK, Denmark, the US and elsewhere.
Alongside heavier precipitation, a key driver of disasters in cities is inadequate infrastructure, they said. For instance, in Botswana’s capital Gaborone, drainage systems have not kept pace with its growing population density and fast-expanding construction, making low-lying areas particularly susceptible to severe flooding.
Rich nations ignore polluting past to claim climate plans are 1.5C-compatible
With today’s global warming of 1.3C, a warmer atmosphere is holding more moisture and leading to more extreme downpours, said Ben Clarke, one of the WWA research authors. “To limit the damage, we need to cut fossil fuel emissions and adapt to a warmer climate,” he added.
Piet Kenabatho, a professor of environmental science at the University of Botswana, said investment in better storm water management systems “is more than urgent if Botswana is to cope with the effects of climate change”.
While the researchers could not quantify the precise contribution of climate change to February’s flooding, they said historical weather observations show an increasing trend in five-day rainfall over the last few decades. Based on the data, they estimated that similar rainfall events are about 60% more intense today than in pre-industrial times, before humans started burning fossil fuels.
Clarke warned that climate models show the situation will become even more dangerous in the future.
To understand the broader implications for Botswana and its development, Tiro Nkemelang, of the Botswana Institute for Technology Research, called for more investment to study local weather and climate.
Water woes worsen
At the same time, in East Africa, more severe droughts are giving way to heavier floods, a back-to-back pattern that is becoming more pronounced, with three capital cities – Nairobi in Kenya, Addis Ababa in Ethiopia and Kampala in Uganda – experiencing this so-called “climate whiplash”, according to research issued this week by international charity WaterAid.
The phenomenon, also affecting Cape Town, sees prolonged droughts that can cause water shortages, food insecurity and electricity disruptions interspersed with intense rainfall, overwhelming urban drainage and resulting in flash floods that displace communities, damage roads and spread waterborne diseases.
“The rapid shift between these extremes makes it difficult for people to prepare and recover, damaging economies and endangering lives,” the report said.
index of Addis Ababa shows an intensification of climatic extremes (both wet and dry). (Graphic: WaterAid)
index of Addis Ababa shows an intensification of climatic extremes (both wet and dry). (Graphic: WaterAid)
Sudan’s capital Khartoum and Cameroon’s capital Yaoundé, meanwhile, are experiencing a flip in their prevailing climate trends from wet to dry extremes, with the opposite happening in the Nigerian city of Kano, the study found.
Women bear brunt of South Sudan’s heatwave made worse by climate change
The research comes at a pivotal time, when a sweep of global aid cuts “could leave basic human rights hanging in the balance”, warned Tim Wainwright, WaterAid UK’s Chief Executive. He said the devastating impacts of the shifts in extreme climate patterns across all continents are being most keenly felt in low-income countries, where the lack of water is not just a challenge, but a matter of life and death.

is, the stronger the trend in either wetting or drying respectively. (Graphic: WaterAid)

is, the stronger the trend in either wetting or drying respectively. (Graphic: WaterAid)
The research – which looked at the world’s 100 most populated cities – revealed that cities in Southern Asia are becoming overwhelmingly flood-prone and European cities are exhibiting significant drying trends, all of which can impact people’s clean water access and water security.
“Floods and droughts are stripping away people’s foundation of survival – water,” said Wainwright. “But with a reliable supply of clean water, communities can recover from disasters, stay healthy and be ready for whatever the future holds.”
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Age of “climate whiplash” puts residents of Africa’s fast-growing cities in danger
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Climate Change
Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs
Three countries have been named by the Paris Agreement’s compliance committee for failing to submit a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and repeatedly snubbing offers of help with their climate plans.
After months of internal debate over whether to identify serial non-responders, the Paris Agreement’s Implementation and Compliance Committee (PAICC) named the three countries which have failed to engage with it over their NDCs on Friday.
It named Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal and North Korea in a footnote of its annual report, adding that it decided to name them “with a view to facilitating engagement”, adding that representatives of the three nations had been invited to its meeting in early 2027 “with the purpose of identifying any challenges and constraints”.
“The Committee noted the importance of Parties engaging with the Committee in a timely manner, while noting that some delays may be due to the national capabilities and circumstances of the Parties”, the report said.
In July, PAICC said 12 countries had ignored its repeated attempts to discuss why they had not published an NDC as required every five years under the 2015 Paris accord.
Members of the committee had been divided over whether to name them, but at a September meeting decided to do so in their annual report to the annual climate COP summit.
By the time the report was published on Friday, only Congo, Senegal and North Korea “had not communicated an NDC or submitted a [Biennial Transparency Report] and had not yet responded to any of the Committee’s notifications, despite several reminders issued by the Committee in this regard”.
Rainforest and renewable energy ambitions
The silence from Congo and Senegal is notable because the former is home to much of the Congo Basin rainforest while the latter has sought billions of dollars in climate finance to support its renewable energy ambitions.
After Brazil, Congo has more rainforest than any country in the world. This forest, and the country’s peatlands, absorb huge amounts of greenhouse gas but are fast being lost to expanding farmland, charcoal production, logging and mining.
Senegal signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership with Canada and wealthy European nations in 2023, to help it meet its renewable energy targets under the-then government of Macky Sall. It was chair of the Least Developed Countries group between January 2022 and December 2023.

Tejas Rao, who is researching the PAICC as part of a doctoral thesis at Cambridge University, said the governments of the three countries should engage with the committee.
“Engagement costs these governments very little and the committee has shown it will listen,” he said.
“Silence leaves the committee with no basis to help, and it leaves the [governments] exposed to the narrative that they are simply disengaged,” he told Climate Home News.
Paris Agreement requirement
The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all parties to publish an NDC every five years outlining their emissions reduction targets, with each plan meant to be more ambitious than the country’s last NDC.
The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in February 2025. While most countries missed this deadline, all but around 30 – mostly small emitters but including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have now submitted them.
Over the year, the PAICC – which is made up of government climate officials from developed and developing countries – has been communicating with governments that have not submitted NDCs and trying to overcome barriers to them doing so.
Some nations have cited exceptional circumstances as the reason for not submitting an NDC, a process that requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC, seen by Climate Home News, said that the country’s civil war had led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.
The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement and so do not have active NDCs, nor does Taiwan, which is not a UN member state.
Rao said that because the PAICC is “facilitative and non-punitive”, naming the countries “is meant to open a door, not close one – the invited consultation is the point”.
“In recent months, governments that explained their constraints, whether capacity, finance or domestic process, have been met with follow-up and support rather than sanction, and the number of silent governments has fallen sharply,” Rao said.
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Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs
Climate Change
Q&A: Why a pivotal IPCC meeting in Ethiopia ended in ‘profound disappointment’
Countries have failed – for the sixth time running – to agree on the timeline for publishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) next set of influential reports.
The IPCC’s 65th session (IPCC-65) was seen by many to be the final opportunity for countries to agree on a schedule where its seventh assessment report (AR7) would be published in time for the UN’s second “global stocktake” of climate action.
Before last week’s meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, IPCC chair Prof Sir Jim Skea had warned that releasing the reports in time for the stocktake in 2028 would depend on a timelines being agreed by the end of 2026.
But the week-long meeting descended into fraught disagreements between governments, resulting in Skea “suspending” the talks on Friday evening with no decision made.
Countries were also unable to agree on the IPCC’s budget for the rest of the AR7 cycle, leaving the body with a “serious funding crisis”.
The IPCC has pledged to reconvene the meeting at the “earliest opportunity”; however, it has not yet given an indication of when this will be.
In his concluding remarks, Skea described the Addis Ababa summit as a “profound disappointment” and “among the most difficult IPCC meetings”, according to reporting from the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).
Some countries have reacted with dismay to the breakdown of negotiations, warning that a failure to have the IPCC’s latest assessments on climate adaptation and mitigation ready for the UN stocktaking exercise would undermine global climate action.
A climate envoy from a Pacific island state said it was a “travesty that a handful of countries continue to delay the IPCC’s reports – the science we need back home to help us save lives and livelihoods”.
Below, Carbon Brief explores the key developments, debates and disagreements at the IPCC meeting.


