Just two weeks ago, copper prices were climbing fast due to the US stockpiling ahead of new tariffs. Traders warned that new US tariffs on copper could squeeze global supply. But things turned around quickly. But now, the copper rally has reversed into a full-blown crash.
This is a direct outcome of President Donald Trump’s trade war, aka “Trump Tariffs,” that is shaking the global market. Investors now fear that the new tariffs will slow down demand for copper worldwide.
The Copper Price Shock: Traders Scramble, Markets Tumble
Bloomberg reported, on Friday, April 4, copper prices dropped sharply, along with stock markets. The fall continued till Monday. In the London Metal Exchange, copper prices sank as much as 7.7% before bouncing back slightly to $8,735 a ton.

Earlier, we saw how traders rushed to send copper to the US before tariffs hit, driving premiums as high as $500 a ton. Big players like Mercuria and Trafigura even predicted prices could reach $12,000 a ton. But things changed rapidly when Trump shortened the tariff timeline, giving buyers very few days in hand.
Because of this, copper is piling up outside the US. Global buyers have more to choose from, but many aren’t interested. With demand dropping due to tariffs, the extra supply doesn’t help.
Chile’s Price Cut Signals Looming Economic Strain
Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, is preparing to lower its copper price estimate for 2025. It’s a telltale sign of growing global economic concerns.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Chile’s copper agency, Cochilco, held its 2025 price forecast at $4.25 per pound in February. This came after it raised the estimate from $3.85 back in May 2024.
It also kept the 2026 forecast at $4.25. Cochilco expects copper prices to stay above $4.00 per pound for the next ten years.
- But the new data show copper prices to average between $3.90 and $4 per pound this year, which is below its previous forecast.
The final figure will be announced by the end of April. However, Juan Ignacio Guzman, head of Chilean mineral consulting firm GEM, said,
“If the trade war triggers a recession, prices could tumble to as low as $3 a pound — or about $6,600 a ton.”

Chile, which produced 24% of the world’s copper last year, is now feeling the pressure.
In a separate report from the Shanghai Metals Market, we discovered that,
- Chilean Customs data showed that Chile exported 182,338 metric tons of refined copper, including 33,496 metric tons to China in March.
- Exports of copper ore and concentrate totaled 1,304,782 metric tons, with China receiving 810,135 metric tons in the same month.
Earlier this year, in January and February, Chile’s copper production dropped compared to the previous month. Exports to China also declined during that period.
Analysts Warn of More Trouble Ahead
The Bloomberg report highlighted that the worst might not be over. Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., warned that the global trade shake-up could lead to a historic market correction. Citi now expects copper prices outside the US to average $8,500 this quarter — but they also say the risk of further drops is high.
BNP Paribas SA strategist David Wilson, who had warned prices could collapse, now sees the downtrend continuing in the short term. Goldman Sachs still believes in copper’s long-term value but admits that slower global growth could delay the expected supply shortage.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan now expects the US to fall into a recession this year. UBS estimates that every 1% drop in US GDP could cut output in export-driven Asian economies like Taiwan and South Korea by up to 2%.
China’s 34% Tariff Sparks Copper Stock Rout
Copper stocks have taken a beating amid falling prices, global slowdown fears, and rising trade tensions. The sharp selloff followed news from China’s Xinhua News Agency that Beijing will impose a 34% tariff on all US imports starting April 10.
Here’s a quick look at how major mining companies are reacting:
- Freeport-McMoRan: Shares dropped 13.1% in a single day. The stock is down 24.1% this week, bringing its market value to $41.9 billion.
- BHP Group and Rio Tinto: BHP’s shares fell 9.5%, cutting its value to $107.3 billion. Rio Tinto’s dropped 6.4%, is now valued at $93.5 billion. Both saw trading volumes nearly triple the usual.
- Southern Copper: Based in Mexico, the company fell 9.6% on Friday alone, pushing its weekly loss to 16.7%. Its market value now stands at $62.4 billion.
- Zijin Mining: This Chinese mining giant lost 7.2%, dropping to a market cap of $56.9 billion. It’s one of the few firms producing over 1 million tonnes of copper a year.
- Glencore and Anglo American: Glencore dropped 11.5%, while London-listed Anglo American fell 11%. Their market caps now stand at $36.9 billion and $28.6 billion, respectively. Both are down about 20% this week.
- Canadian Miners (Teck Resources, Ivanhoe Mines, First Quantum): Canadian copper stocks saw sharp losses. Teck dropped 12.1%, Ivanhoe fell 12.6%, and First Quantum slid 12.8% as investors pulled back across the board.
- Hindustan Copper: In India, shares fell 5.4% over the past five days and are down 15.7% so far in 2025.
KNOW MORE: Copper Prices Slump Below $9,000: What Does It Mean for Global Growth?
What started as a bullish rush has turned into a brutal crash. With tariffs rising and demand shrinking, copper is now a symbol of deeper market fears. Global supply chains are out of sync, and the world’s top miners are feeling the heat. If trade tensions escalate, this copper price crash may face a difficult recovery.
The post Copper Prices Crash as U.S.-China Tariff War Triggers Market Mayhem appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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