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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

This week

Transitioning away?

BIG AUCTION: The US Biden administration raised $382m from the auction of drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico – its largest oil-and-gas lease sale since 2015, according to Reuters. New auctions will not be open until 2025, but possibly under “tighter limits” and with “less territory up for grabs”, Bloomberg noted. It added that this came “just days” after the US pledged at COP28 to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

DISRUPTION: Oil prices surged 3% following attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on ships in the Red Sea, which prompted BP to pause all shipments, the Times explained. The attacks were part of an “escalating campaign against Israel” since the start of its war on Hamas, the newspaper said. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that campaigners have launched two legal challenges against the North Sea Rosebank oil project – the UK’s largest untapped oilfield.

COAL DROP: The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that it expected global demand for coal to hit a record high this year, according to the Times. However, it predicted that coal demand will drop next year due to the expansion of renewables in China.

EU climate plans off-track

ROAD TO 2030: EU countries are off track to meet the bloc’s 2030 climate goals, Bloomberg reported, based on a European Commission assessment. It found that current national energy and climate plans would result in a 51% reduction in EU emissions by 2030, falling short of the existing 55% target. 

CO2-FREE POWER: Seven European countries have committed to “eliminat[ing]” carbon dioxide-emitting power plants from their electricity systems by 2035”, according to Reuters. The newswire added that the countries account for nearly half of EU power production, mostly due to the inclusion of Germany and France. 

Around the world

  • CONGO ELECTS: Elections are underway in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), home to one of the world’s largest carbon sinks and minerals that are key for the clean-energy transition, according to Bloomberg. Presidential candidates disagree over plans to hand out oil-and-gas permits in the nation’s vast rainforest, it added.
  • CLIMATE MIGRATION: More than 3 million Americans moved between 2000 and 2020 because of the rising risk of flooding due to climate change, according to a new study reported by CBS News
  • RECORD DENGUE: At least 4.2m cases of dengue have been reported across the Americas in 2023, breaking incidence records since 1980, the Spanish outlet Climática reported. The increase has been attributed to changes in the climate that make conditions more favourable for mosquitos that carry the disease, it added. 
  • AUSSIE EXTREMES: Firefighters tackled dozens of blazes across New South Wales in Australia, including a “giant out-of-control bushfire” in the Pilliga Forest, the Guardian reported. In the north of the country, “record rainfall and dangerous flash flooding” hit parts of Queensland, ABC News said. 
  • DEADLINE: Canada announced new rules to “effectively end sales” of new fossil fuel-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035, according to a report in CBC News
  • NEW LEVY: The UK plans to introduce a “carbon border tax” by 2027 to try to protect British manufacturers in high-emitting sectors, such as steel and cement, and match similar efforts in the EU, the Financial Times explained.

$7tn

Annual public and private capital flows into activities that directly harm nature, in sectors including fossil fuels, agriculture and construction, according to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) State of Finance for Nature 2023 report.


Latest climate research

  • The 120m square kilometres that countries have pledged for “land-based” CO2 removal, such as tree planting, could “potentially conflict” with the Global Biodiversity Framework’s target to protect 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030, according to a Frontiers in Climate paper. 
  • A study published in Climatic Change outlined how the “climate contrarian” US conservative thinktank the Heartland Institute has adapted its messaging over the course of a decade.
  • A new study in Geophysical Research Letters identified an increase in large wildfires across much of the eastern US, including “some of the most populated regions” in the country.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.)

Captured

Chart showing some of the global-north and Latin American nations that publicly issued calls to cut fossil fuels have domestic plans to increase their production of coal, oil and gas by 2030.

The most high-profile debate at COP28 concerned the language around fossil fuels in the final text, with parties ultimately settling on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. This was widely regarded as weaker than calls to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels. However, as climate negotiations-watcher Dr Jen Allan pointed out, data from the most recent UNEP Production Gap report “speaks volumes” about this debate. The chart above shows how some of the global-north and Latin American nations that publicly issued calls to cut fossil fuels have domestic plans to increase their production of coal, oil and gas by 2030. (Note that the UK has announced more support for oil-and-gas licences since these figures were compiled and some nations, such as Brazil, expressed support for a phase-out at COP28, but only if it was led by developed countries.)

Spotlight

How climate change could reduce the ‘value’ of nature

Carbon Brief unpacks a new study, which investigated how climate-induced biome shifts could exacerbate global inequalities.

Is it possible to put a price on nature?

The natural world underpins the fundamental needs of life, such as food, clean air, water and the materials to build shelter. And each of these components has a measurable impact on the global economy.

Analysis from the World Economic Forum suggests that “$44tn of economic value generation – more than half the world’s total GDP – is moderately or highly dependent on nature and its services”.

So what does climate change mean for the global economy?

A new study, published this week in Nature, assessed how “climate change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover” could impact the economy over the coming century. The authors found that, as the planet warms, many biomes such as grasslands and forests are shifting northward. They also highlight a “partial replacement of grasslands with forests” in many regions.

Using data from the World Bank, the authors analysed the contribution of grassland and forest biomes on different countries’ GDP. Their analysis covered products such as timber, as well as less-tangible benefits including “forest-related recreational services” and the “inherent value of protected areas”.

The paper suggested that by the end of the century, under the SSP2-6.0 scenario (which projects warming of around 3.8C by 2100), ecosystem shifts will reduce the financial benefits provided by nature by more than 9%. However, this change is not spread uniformly across the planet.

The authors found that as developing countries are “more reliant on natural capital” than their wealthier counterparts, they will be hit the hardest by the changing ecosystems. The bottom 50% of the countries, in terms of GDP per capita, will bear around 90% of the damages, the paper noted. Meanwhile, the top 10% only face 2% of the losses.

Dr Bernardo Bastien-Olvera – a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography – is the lead author of the study. He told Carbon Brief that some countries, including Australia, the US, Turkey, China, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, may see small benefits from shifting ecosystems. However, he added that these are “minimal”, amounting to only around 3% of the countries’ GDP.

“Our study challenges the common perception that forests are inherently more beneficial than grasslands,” said Bastien-Olvera. He told Carbon Brief that “each ecosystem type holds unique values, and the loss of one cannot be fully compensated by the introduction of another”.

Watch, read, listen

‘CARBON FOOTPRINT’: This week, NPR’s On Point podcast spoke to Prof Geoffrey Supran and climate journalist Amy Westervelt about the origins of the “carbon footprint” and Big Oil’s role in popularising a concept that “individualises the climate crisis”.

DECARBONISING DEVELOPMENT: With the dust finally settling on news from Dubai, Tim Sahay interviewed Navroz Dubash for Phenomenal World on COP28’s hits and misses and what the “developmentalist turn” of climate politics means for an unequal world.

TRANSITION TENSIONS: After reporting on farmers, miners, drivers and others in the EU and UK who shared “a burning sense they weren’t being heard” by policymakers, Politico’s Karl Mathiesen wrote that “the success of the green revolution will depend on… taking into consideration those who will bear its greatest costs”. 

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org

The post DeBriefed 21 December 2023: Major oil auction in US; EU missing targets; Climate change threatens nature’s ‘unique values’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 21 December 2023: Major oil auction in US; EU missing targets; Climate change threatens nature’s ‘unique values’

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Climate Change

New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

        The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry  appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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        Climate Change

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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        SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.

        The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.

        An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.

        Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.

        Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.

        “The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

        “The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”

        Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.

        “The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.

        “The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”

        After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.

        Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.

        “Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”

        -ENDS-

        Media contact

        Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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