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Key developments
‘Wartime’ floods swamped southern China
‘WARTIME’ EMERGENCY: Extreme weather events continued over the past two weeks. Dongting lake – China’s second-biggest freshwater lake – in southern China’s Hunan province experienced a wide “dyke breach” on 6 July, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. The newspaper found the flooding in Hunan was “the most severe flooding seen in 70 years”, with local authorities declaring a “wartime” emergency. State-run newspaper China Daily said the water level on one Hunan river, at 77.63m, was “the highest water level recorded since 1954”. In central China, Henan province, which had experienced a “one-in-a-thousand-year” rainstorm in 2021, also issued a flood warning, reported the Paper, a state-supported outlet. Another central province, Anhui, evacuated 195,000 people whose lives were affected by heavy rainfall, said state news agency Xinhua.
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RESCUE FUNDING: Chinese premier Li Qiang called for “unswerving efforts” on flood control and disaster relief, reported Xinhua. Some 540m yuan ($74m) of funds were issued by the central government to “help local authorities search, rescue and relocate disaster victims”, reported financial media Caixin. An additional 200m yuan ($27.5m) was provided to help flood rescue efforts in Hunan and Jiangxi, reported Science and Technology Daily. (See Carbon Brief’s recent Q&A for more on flooding in China.)
CLIMATE CHANGE: China’s weather agency forecasted that “extreme heat [will] persist across the country” over the summer as “climate change pushes global temperatures higher”, Agence France-Presse reported, citing state broadcaster CCTV. The Economist said that, as a result of climate change, China is likely to “increasingly experience periods of heavier rainfall, as well as longer periods of dryness”, according to World Weather Attribution. Xinhua reported that provinces in southern China are expecting high temperatures ranging from 35-40C in the coming days.
EU moved ahead with provisional tariffs on Chinese EVs
PROVISIONAL TARIFFS: The EU’s provisional duties on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) came into force on 4 July, despite Beijing calling on Brussels last month to “scrap” them, Bloomberg reported. The tariff rate was set between 20-48% for individual automakers – with companies that cooperated in initial investigations receiving a lower rate, added the newspaper. EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said “we can also find ways not to apply [the tariffs] at the end of the day” since the negotiations with China were still ongoing, “but it is very clear this solution [would] need to solve that market distortion that we are currently having”, according to Reuters. It noted that definitive duties are due by November.
BEIJING’S RESPONSE: The Chinese commerce ministry and foreign ministry both opposed the EU duties. Meanwhile, China announced a probe into EU brandy imports, reported Reuters. This is the second EU product, after pork, that China has investigated as a countermeasure. Xinhua quoted data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and said the export of “new energy” vehicles (NEVs) in June reached 80,000, up 12.3% year-on-year. However, the CPCA told Reuters that the June number was actually 20-30 percentage points lower than expected growth due to the EU tariffs. The newswire quoted the association saying: “Our (NEV export) growth used to be at least 30-40%, and it has slowed to only more than 10%, meaning (the tariffs) had a 20-30 percentage point impact on (NEV export growth), a conspicuous short-term impact.” Chinese manufacturer Neta Auto viewed the EU tariffs as a “temporary setback” that would incentivise Chinese companies to explore other overseas markets, such as in Africa, according to the SCMP.
OTHER COUNTRIES: Following similar moves by the EU and US, Canada was also considering raising tariffs and blocking Chinese investments, with an intention to “deter Chinese-made electric vehicles from accessing the Canadian market”, said Bloomberg. ASEAN members, such as Thailand and Indonesia, also expressed “concerns about the negative effects of massive Chinese imports”, reported the SCMP, but no measures have been announced so far. Meanwhile, leading Chinese EV maker BYD announced plans to build a factory in Turkey, BBC News reported, noting that, as Turkey is part of the EU Customs Union, it will be able to bypass EU tariffs. The announcement came after the Turkish government had also announced tariffs on Chinese EVs, as reported in the 13 June edition of China Briefing.
China published draft carbon market rules
EMISSIONS ALLOWANCES: China has published draft rules aiming to “reduc[e] an oversupply of permits” in its national carbon market, Bloomberg reported. Participants would no longer be able to borrow allowances from “future years” and the rules on “carrying over unused permits from previous years” would become stricter, if the draft rules are enacted, added the outlet. Yan Qin, lead carbon analyst at London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), was quoted by the news outlet saying “the confirmation of supply tightening will send a strong signal to the market participants”.
CLOSING LOOPHOLES: The market has seen “companies hoarding carbon permits in anticipation of tightening allocations, leading to very low liquidity in the carbon market”, financial media outlet Caixin said. The business newspaper added that strict penalties in the interim carbon market rules issued in January encouraged traders to “stor[e] their quotas for the future, rather than selling [them]”, adding that “previous expectations of tighter quota allocations for emissions-controlled companies have heightened the perceived value” of allowances, it added. The draft rules, according to an anonymous source interviewed by Caixin, “means that the quotas previously hoarded by emissions-controlled companies and not traded will lose their value after a set period, potentially releasing more supply”.
Spotlight
Analysis: China’s clean energy pushes coal to record-low 53% share of power in May 2024
Last November, Carbon Brief published analysis suggesting that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions might have peaked, with this being reinforced by analysis published in May.
In this issue, Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, offers further support for his earlier analysis, using recently released data to show that clean energy pushed coal to a record-low 53% of China’s electricity mix in May 2024.
This analysis is published in full on the Carbon Brief website.
Why official data on electricity generation is increasingly limited
Every month, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes data on China’s electricity generation by technology. The figures for May 2024 came out nearly a month ago, in mid-June, and were widely reported at the time.
However, this data is now increasingly limited because it excludes, among other things, “distributed” solar sites, such as those on the roofs of homes and businesses. Analysis for this article shows this misses out about half of the electricity generated by solar overall.
There is now enough data to work around the limitations in the NBS power generation data and give a complete picture of China’s power generation mix in May.
What a complete set of generation data revealed
Putting the various figures together showed that, far from the modest 29% year-on-year increase in the incomplete NBS data, there was a record 78% rise in solar electricity generation in May 2024.
Installed solar capacity increased by 52% to 691 gigawatts (GW) and capacity utilisation improved from 16% to 19%. This delivered the largest increase in China’s electricity generation for any technology, with solar generation rising 41TWh from 53TWh in May 2023 to 94TWh in May 2024.
The second-largest increase was from hydropower, where capacity only increased 1%, but utilisation jumped from 31% to 41%, as the sector recovers from the record drought seen in 2022-23. This led to a 39% or 34TWh increase in power generation, which hit 115TWh.
Wind power saw a strong increase in capacity of 21%. Utilisation fell, however, likely due to month-to-month variations in wind conditions. As a result, power generation grew by a relatively modest 5%, or 4TWh, reaching 83TWh.
Nuclear and biomass-fired power generation also saw small increases in capacity, but the utilisation of nuclear plants fell from 87% to 85%.
How surging clean energy pushed fossil fuels into reverse
In total, clean power generation grew 78TWh in May 2024, which was more than enough to exceed the 49TWh increase in electricity demand.
As a result, gas-fired generation plummeted by 16%, despite a 9% increase in capacity, driving a steep 24% drop in utilisation. Coal-fired generation capacity increased by 3% while power generation from coal fell 3.7%, resulting in average plant utilisation falling by 7%. Falling demand could temper investment in new coal capacity, which has run hot in the past two years.
The changes in coal and gas-fired generation, combined with a slight degradation in the thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants, imply a 3.6% drop in CO2 emissions from the power sector.
Why the clean power surge meant a record-low share for coal
After these changes in output, China’s power generation mix shifted significantly away from fossil fuels in May 2024. The share of coal-fired generation fell to 53%, down from 60% at the same time last year and the lowest share on record, as shown in the figure below.
Meanwhile, solar rose to 12%, up from 7% a year earlier and the highest on record. The remainder was made up of wind (11%), hydropower (15%), nuclear (5%), gas (3%) and biomass (2%).
Meanwhile, strong clean-energy capacity growth continued in May 2024, with 19 gigawatt (GW) of solar being added, 3GW of wind and 1.2GW of nuclear.
In the first five months of 2024, China has added some 79GW of solar and 20GW of wind. These additions are up 29% and 21% respectively from last year’s numbers, which were already record-breaking.
What the power sector shift means for China’s CO2
The rapid growth in generation from solar shows that the solar capacity boom is delivering new electricity supplies at a scale sufficient to cover much of China’s demand growth.
This reinforces the view that China’s CO2 emissions are in a period of structural decline.
If clean energy additions are kept at the level reached in 2023 and early 2024, then CO2 output is likely to keep falling, confirming 2023 as the peak year for the country’s emissions.
However, with China due to announce new climate targets by early next year, the government’s level of ambition for clean energy growth remains an open question.
Watch, read, listen
GRID INVESTMENT: The Financial Times reported on surging investment in upgrading China’s electricity grid “to support green energy transition”, citing analysis finding “more than $800bn” would be spent by 2030.
FLOOD AND COMMUNIST: Chinese website 12371.cn – the official website for Chinese communist party members – carried a notice by the organisation department of the CPC Central Committee, calling on “communist party members at grassroot level” to play an “exemplary role” in “flood prevention and disaster relief”.
‘HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT’: The Chinese communist party’s Qiushi magazine published an “interpretation” of the “philosophy” behind “high quality development”, a concept widely circulated in Chinese policy documents in recent years.
POWER REFORM: Caixin published an explainer breaking down reasons behind the need for a “green power system” in China, as well as how that new system could operate.
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The total amount of utility-scale solar and wind, in gigawatts (GW), under construction in China as of June 2024, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM). The number, comprising 180GW of solar and 159GW of wind, is nearly twice as much as the rest of the world combined, according to GEM’s latest updates.
New science
Diversifying heat sources in China’s urban district heating systems will reduce risk of carbon lock-in
Nature Energy
A new study found the share of non-fossil sources in China’s urban district heating systems remained low, but “new coal-fired combined heat and power plants” continued to be built in the past few years. It said replacing “polluting coal” with “new and improved coal-fired combined heat and power plants” will help to reduce emissions; expanding the use of “industrial waste heat and air/ground-source heat pumps” could also help decarbonisation. The paper concluded that “strategic choices for district heating technologies are necessary for China” to reach its “dual carbon goals”.
Methane emissions from livestock in China are projected to rise 13% by 2030, but there is the “technical potential” to cut them by 36%, a new study suggested. Using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys, the researchers created a high-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock methane emissions over 1990-2020. The most effective methane mitigation measures would be “increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage” used for manure, the authors said. At carbon prices below $100 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, this would be “more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China”, the study added.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 11 July: ‘Wartime’ flooding emergency; EU tariff impact; Record-low coal share appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 11 July: ‘Wartime’ flooding emergency; EU tariff impact; Record-low coal share
Climate Change
‘Step up and lead’: All eyes on Australia as it takes the reins of UN COP31 climate negotiations
ANTALYA, Türkiye, Saturday 7 November 2026 — As leaders and delegates gather for the UN COP31 climate summit, Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling on the Australian government in its role as President of Negotiations to ensure the just transition away from fossil fuels is central to negotiations, rigorously defend the 1.5°C temperature goal, and significantly scale up climate finance commitments.
This year’s climate talks take place amidst a deepening global energy shock, and grim reports that the world will barrel past the 1.5°C temperature goal. They also follow a deadly summer of extreme weather disasters that swept the northern hemisphere, with fears that a severe El Niño will see similar dangerous impacts in Australia.
But recent election wins by progressive candidates in the United States and Brazil are set to breathe energy and optimism into the negotiations as people around the world, bearing the brunt of soaring cost of living and climate disasters, shun regressive and divisive politics.
Speaking from Antalya, Dr Simon Bradshaw, COP31 Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “The world is in a moment of flux. We know it is in moments of huge upheaval that era-defining progress can happen — but only when countries step up and lead.
“As Australia takes control of COP31 Negotiations, we have an opportunity and responsibility to shepherd global climate cooperation through this moment of interlocking crises. That means backing Pacific leadership and priorities, and leading by example at home to end fossil fuels and deliver new, multi-year climate finance commitments.
“As a major coal and gas exporter, Australia plays an outsized role in fuelling the climate crisis, and has approved 38 new, extended and expanded fossil fuel projects since first elected in 2022. More than half the world’s coal export project pipeline is in Australia, and the Albanese Government is poised to make decisions on massive new gas projects. Australia must reckon with this reality.
“Domestically, we have made significant strides on ramping up renewables and the global ‘35 by 35’ electrification goal is welcome and necessary. But electrification must end fossil fuel dependence, not be an end in itself — its ultimate success depends on ensuring electricity comes from renewable sources that displace fossil fuels and align with a 1.5°C pathway.
“In Türkiye, the Australian government can rise to the occasion and show what true climate leadership looks like, but we can not move the world towards a clean energy future while expanding the industry we need to leave behind.”
Speaking from Antalya, Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “As leaders meet in Türkiye amidst warnings that we will pass the 1.5°C threshold, the stakes have never been higher. Every heatwave, every flood, every storm is being unleashed on communities with the deadly force of accumulated emissions and gives a warning of what is to come.
“In Antalya, the COP31 Presidency must respond to the accelerating climate crisis and defend the 1.5°C goal based on the law and the science. 1.5°C is a non-negotiable survival line for Pacific communities and climate-vulnerable nations facing rising seas, extreme weather disasters, food insecurity and soaring economic costs. It is a fundamental component of the Paris Agreement and enshrined as a binding legal benchmark by the world’s highest court, the International Court of Justice.
“Australia must arrive at COP31 with more than meaningless speeches. The Pacific and the world need concrete dates, credible plans to deliver roadmaps away from fossil fuels built on the best available science, and a commitment to put people, energy security and the planet ahead of fossil fuel interests.
“We need real action to advance multilateral climate cooperation, ensure the just transition away from fossil fuels is high on the agenda, and back longstanding Pacific priorities — including keeping 1.5°C alive and significantly scaling-up climate finance.”
ENDS
Images and footage from Greenpeace’s COP31 ‘Keep 1.5°C alive’ photo opp in Antalya can be found here
Greenpeace has a diverse range of experts available for interviews and commentary from Antalya. Headshots can be found in Greenpeace Media Library here
Media contact: Kate O’Callaghan in Antalya (GMT+3) on +61 406 231 892 (Whatsapp/Signal)
‘Step up and lead’: All eyes on Australia as it takes the reins of UN COP31 climate negotiations
As an extreme El Niño breaks marine temperature records, COP31 is set to boost the profile of the ocean’s role in solving climate change, but finance and clear conservation measures will be needed for it to move the needle, experts said.
The Turkish presidency has announced plans for an Antalya Ocean Declaration that recognises the centrality of the global ocean – the world’s largest carbon sink – in regulating the climate and minimising the now unavoidable overshoot of global temperatures above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels.
Meanwhile, as part of the formal UN negotiations, Australia has announced plans to land a cover decision in Antalya, which, according to veteran former US negotiator Sue Biniaz, would be the only section of the formal negotiations where the role of oceans could be included.
She added that an outcome at COP31 seems likely, given the initiative from both presidencies and a push from over 100 countries – including Brazil, the EU and the African Group of countries – calling for the UN negotiations to deliver a plan for implementing ocean measures.
Governments will arrive in Antalya with a “super El Niño” adding stress to marine ecosystems and expected to continue to intensify until December 2026, with parts of the Pacific averaging almost 30C (86F) – over 3C more than normal – in October, according to monthly EU sea temperature data.
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COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
Electrification, the fossil fuel transition, adaptation to rising impacts, climate science and trade are key themes as governments gather for COP31 in Türkiye -
European nations signal support for fossil fuel roadmap, says COP30 president
André Corrêa do Lago told Climate Home News that it’s up to other nations to decide how the fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps are used -
Nepal seeks stronger recognition of mountain issues in UN climate process
Flood-hit Nepal wants COP31 to adopt a new agenda item formalising work on mountains and climate change and boosting the response to rising risks
Needs for ocean conservation and funding
While elevating the ocean agenda is “critical”, it must lead to funding for ocean conservation and a clear plan for reaching the global target – set at UN biodiversity talks in 2022 – of protecting 30% of the global ocean by 2030, said Pradeep Singh, senior ocean governance expert at Oceano Azul Foundation.
The ocean is precisely where governments are farthest off track from meeting this target – informally known as the 30×30 goal. Even if countries meet all their nature conservation plans, only about 12% of the global ocean would be protected, the UN says.
“Acknowledgment of marine protected areas and the 30×30 target as climate infrastructures will certainly boost efforts and funding for science and management,” Singh told Climate Home News.
Shamini Selvaratnam, director of international climate and clean energy at Ocean Conservancy, said an ocean commitment that makes a difference in coastal communities “takes funding, local capacity and support that countries can actually access”.
An analysis by climate think tank Zero Carbon Analytics shows that investment in the blue economy – through activities like sustainable fisheries or cleaner shipping – is only at about 2% of the needs, which are estimated at $550 billion per year.
Following-through on commitments
Selvaratnam added that countries must also establish mechanisms to follow through on these measures, which currently only exists in the form of a non-binding dialogue that is not expected to produce any