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The first three months of 2026 have been the fourth warmest on record, with each successive month surpassing historical averages by a greater margin.

While weak La Niña conditions pushed down temperatures at the start of the year, scientists expect the development of a strong – and potentially “super” – El Niño event by early autumn.

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that shapes global weather patterns.

Based on temperature datasets from five different research groups, Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record.

The year is virtually certain to be one of the four warmest on record and, currently, has a 19% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record.

However, the development of a strong El Niño event later this year would substantially increase the chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.

In addition to near-record warmth, the start of 2026 has seen record-low sea ice cover in the Arctic, with the year tying with 2025 for the lowest winter peak in the satellite record.

Fourth-warmest start to the year

In this latest quarterly state of the climate assessment, Carbon Brief analyses records from five different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF.

The figure below shows the annual temperatures from each of these groups since 1970, along with the average over the first three months of 2026.

Chart showing global surface temperature records from 1970-2025 and 2026 to date
Annual global average surface temperatures from NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF’s ERA5 (lines), along with 2026 temperatures so far (January-March, coloured dots). Anomalies plotted with respect to the 1981-2010 period and shown relative to pre-industrial based on the average pre-industrial temperatures in the Hadley/UEA, NOAA and Berkeley datasets that extend back to 1850.

(It is worth noting that warming in the first three months may not be representative of the year as a whole, as temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels tend to be larger in the northern hemispheric winter months of December, January and February.)

Carbon Brief provides a best estimate of global temperatures by averaging the different records using a common 1981-2010 baseline period and then adding in the average warming since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) across the datasets – NOAA, Hadley and Berkeley – that extend back to 1850. (This follows the approach taken by the World Meteorological Organization in its state of the climate reports.)

The figure below shows how global temperature so far in 2026 (black line) compares to each month in different years since 1940 (lines coloured by the decade in which they occurred).

Chart showing monthly global temperature anomalies
Temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2026 from the Carbon Brief average of temperature records. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline.

The first three months of 2026 have been relatively warm, coming in in the top-five warmest on record across all the different scientific groups that report on global surface temperatures. This is despite the presence of weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific at the start of the year, which typically suppress global temperatures.

January 2026 was the fourth- or fifth-warmest January on record across all the groups, February was the fourth- to sixth-warmest and March was between the second and fourth warmest.

Dataset January February March
HadCRUT5 5th 6th Yet To Report
NOAA 5th 5th 2nd
GISTEMP 5th 4th 4th
Berkeley Earth 4th 4th 4th
Copernicus ERA5 5th 5th 4th

Global temperature anomalies have been steadily increasing since their low point in January, as La Niña conditions have faded.

When combined, the first three months of the year in 2026 were the fourth-warmest in the historical record, below only 2024, 2025 and 2016.

Chart showing that 2026 was the forth-hottest start to a year on record
Quarter one temperature anomalies from 1850 through 2026 from Carbon Brief’s average of temperature records. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline.

A potential ‘super’ El Niño

There is reason to expect that global temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the year, as a strong – or even “super” – El Niño event is expected to develop later in the year.

Since the start of April, 13 different modelling groups have published estimates of future El Niño strength through at least September. These, in turn, contain 637 different model runs, as each model is run multiple times to better characterise the range of potential El Niño development.

There are a number of different ways to assess the strength of an El Niño or La Niña event.

The most common is the temperature anomaly in the “Niño3.4” region of the tropical Pacific. In addition, these temperatures have the human warming signal removed from changes over time in that part of the Pacific.

There are other approaches to assessing the strength of El Niño, including the newly released relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which may be more accurate. However, RONI data is not readily available from all models today.

The figure below shows a distribution of Niño3.4 temperature anomalies across all of the runs of all of the models (top panel), as well as the range of runs across each of the individual models (bottom panel). Sustained sea surface temperatures in excess of 0.5C indicate an El Niño event, temperatures above 1.5C represent a strong El Niño event and above 2C is often referred to as a “super” El Niño event.

Charts showing the ENSO forecast for September 2026 from 13 modelling groups
Nino3.4 region temperature anomaly forecasts for September 2026 from 637 model runs by 13 modelling groups. The top panel shows a model-weighted density of estimates, where each model is given equal weight regardless of the number of ensemble members. The bottom panel shows the median and ensemble range for each individual model. Data obtained from Copernicus C3S, NOAA’s CFSv2, CanSIPS and NMME.

The latest climate models give a central (median) estimate of 2.2C warming by September – a scenario which would put the world firmly in “super” El Niño territory.

Warming would likely strengthen after September, as El Niño conditions generally peak between November and January.

However, there is still a wide spread among models, with some, such as CanESM5 and DWD, only showing a weak-to-moderate El Niño.

Historically, it has been hard to accurately forecast the development of El Niño during early spring, so it will be a few more months before scientists can be confident that a strong or super El Niño will develop.

Exceptional regional warmth

There were many regions of the planet that saw exceptional warmth in the first quarter of 2026. This includes much of the western US, western China and eastern Russia.

The figure below shows the temperature anomaly in the ERA5 dataset, relative to a more recent 1981-2010 baseline period. (ERA5 does not provide gridded data back to the pre-industrial era.)

Map showing global surface temperature anomalies
Global surface temperature anomalies in ERA5 over the January-March period, relative to a 1981-2010 baseline period.

In addition to temperature anomalies, it is useful to look at where new records have been set. The figure below shows each grid cell that saw one of the top-five warmest first-quarter periods on record, as well as the top-five coolest.

Map showing global temperature records
Global surface temperature records (top five and bottom five) in ERA5 over the January-March period over the 1940-2026 period covered by the dataset.

During the first quarter of 2026, 5.2% of the globe saw record warm temperatures, while virtually no place on earth had record cool temperatures. In addition, 24.3% of the globe was in the top-five warmest on record, whereas only 0.1% was in the bottom-five coolest on record.

On track to be second-warmest year on record

Carbon Brief estimates that the global average temperature in 2026 will be between 1.37C and 1.58C, with a best estimate 1.47C. This puts 2026 on track to likely be the second warmest year on record, though it could potentially be as high as the warmest or as low as the fourth warmest.

This is based on the relationship between the first three months and the annual temperatures for every year since 1970. The estimate also accounts for El Niño and La Niña conditions seen in the first three months of 2026, as well as how El Niño conditions are projected to develop across the rest of the year.

The analysis includes a wide range of possible outcomes in 2026, given that temperatures from only the first quarter of the year are available so far.

The chart below shows the expected range of 2026 temperatures using the Carbon Brief average of groups – including a best-estimate (red) and year-to-date value (yellow). Temperatures are shown with respect to the pre-industrial baseline period (1850-1900).

Chart showing that 2026 is on track to be the second-warmest year
Annual global average surface temperature anomalies from the WMO aggregate plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. To-date 2026 values include January-March. The estimated 2026 annual value is based on the relationship between the January-March temperatures and annual temperatures between 1970 and 2025. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2026 is virtually certain to be one of the top-four warmest years, with a best-estimate – a 62% chance – that it ends up between 2024 and 2023 as the second-warmest year on record.

However, there remains a 19% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year on record – beating the prior record set in 2024. There is also a 19% chance that it will end up as the third- or fourth-warmest year.

The chances of a record-breaking year depends on the strength of El Niño, as well as how rapidly global temperatures warm up as El Niño develops.

There is also a roughly 30% chance that 2026 will be the second year that exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

While the development of a strong or “super” El Niño will give a boost to 2026 temperatures in the latter part of the year, its largest effects will likely be felt in 2027.

Historically, the year where El Niño develops has been warmer than usual, but the year that follows the phenomenon’s winter peak – for example, in 1998, 2016 and 2024 – is record-setting.

This is because there is an approximately three-month lag between the peak of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and the maximum global surface temperature response. If a super El Niño develops this year, it is likely that 2027 will set a new record.

Record-low winter Arctic sea ice

Earlier this year, Arctic sea ice saw the joint-smallest winter peak in a satellite record going back almost half a century.

Sea ice extent peaked for 2026 at 14.29m square kilometres (km2) on 15 March, marking a “statistical tie” with a record low recorded the year before, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

The figure below shows both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2026 (solid red and blue lines), the historical range in the record between 1979 and 2010 (shaded areas) and the record lows (dotted black line).

(Unlike global temperature records, which only report monthly averages, sea ice data is collected and updated on a daily basis, allowing sea ice extent to be viewed up to the present.)

Chart showing the Artic and Antarctic sea ice in 2026
Arctic and Antarctic daily sea ice extent from the NSIDC. The bold lines show daily 2026 values, the shaded area indicates the two standard deviation range in historical values between 1979 and 2010. The dotted black lines show the record lows for each pole.

Arctic sea ice set new record daily low values during periods of January, March and early April. Antarctic sea ice did not set any new records so far in 2026, but remains on the low end of the historical (1979-2010) range.

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New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

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        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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        SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.

        The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.

        An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.

        Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.

        Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.

        “The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

        “The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”

        Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.

        “The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.

        “The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”

        After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.

        Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.

        “Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”

        -ENDS-

        Media contact

        Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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