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2024年,清洁能源技术对中国经济的贡献率首次达到10%以上,相关销售和投资总额达到13.6万亿元人民币(1.9万亿美元)。
在2024年,清洁能源行业推动了四分之一的国内生产总值(GDP)增长,其市场规模已超过房地产销售。

Carbon Brief根据官方、行业数据和分析师报告进行的最新行业分析显示,清洁技术在中国经济中的作用日益增强,尤其是所谓的“新三样”行业,即太阳能、电动汽车和电池。

本篇分析对“清洁能源”行业的定义较为宽泛,涵盖可再生能源、核能、电网、储能、电动汽车和铁路。这些技术和基础设施是中国推动能源生产和使用脱碳的关键。

其他关键调研结果包括:

  • 2024年清洁能源投资达到6.8万亿元人民币(9400亿美元),同比增长7%。相比2023年40%的增速,这一增长有所放缓,但符合预期趋势。
  • 中国对清洁能源的投资规模接近全球对化石燃料的投资总额,其体量相当于沙特阿拉伯的经济总量。
  • 作为“新三样”,电动汽车、电池和太阳能仍然是清洁能源行业的核心驱动力,三者创造了四分之三的附加值,并吸引了该行业一半以上的投资。
  • 2024年,清洁能源行业经济产出的增长拉动了其对GDP的贡献,而2023年主要依靠投资增长带动。
  • 若考虑整个生产链的产值,清洁能源行业对中国经济的总体贡献为 13.6万亿元人民币(1.9万亿美元),略高于GDP总量的10%。
  • 该行业的增长速度是中国整体经济增速的三倍,占2024年GDP增长的26%。
  • 值得注意的是,若无清洁技术的增长,中国2024年的GDP增速可能仅为3.6%,远低于官方公布的5.0%目标。

展望2025年,清洁能源投资可能会进一步增长,因为许多大型项目正加快推进,以试图在“十四五”规划(2021-2025年)结束前完工。

在此之后,清洁能源行业的发展将很大程度上取决于下一份五年规划设定的新目标和政策,该计划即于今年制定。

清洁能源达到GDP里程碑

2023年,在清洁能源行业巨大的产能投资浪潮推动下,该行业贡献了中国约40%的经济增长。

正如去年的分析所预测,超常规的投资增长率在2024年不可避免地会降温,而新的数据也证明了这一趋势。

尽管如此,2024年清洁能源行业的投资仍然保持增长,并且该行业的商品和服务产值增速依然超过20%。

因此,正如下图所示,2024年清洁能源行业占中国GDP的比重首次超过10%。

清洁能源行业对中国GDP贡献的比重,%。
清洁能源行业对中国GDP贡献的比重,%。来源:CREA / Carbon Brief

清洁能源行业对中国经济的整体贡献达到13.6万亿元人民币(1.9万亿美元),其规模与沙特阿拉伯或瑞士等主要经济体相当。

同时,该行业在中国经济中的比重已超过房地产销售(9.6万亿元人民币)和农业(9.1万亿元人民币)。

电动汽车和太阳能是增长主要驱动力

2024年清洁能源行业的生产和投资总值预计增长了13%,自2022年以来则增长了50%,如下图所示。

清洁能源行业对中国GDP和GDP增长的贡献;单位:万亿元,2022-2024年。
清洁能源行业对中国GDP和GDP增长的贡献;单位:万亿元,2022-2024年。来源:CREA / Carbon Brief

这些行业的商品和服务产值增长了21%,达到6.8万亿元人民币(9500亿美元)。

总体而言,电动汽车生产是最具价值的细分行业,其次是清洁能源生产、铁路运输、电力传输与储存,以及能源效率。

下表详细列出了各行业和活动的具体数据。

China-renewable-table

价格下跌促进采用,但对生产商构成挑战

在全球大多数经济体都在担忧高通胀之际,中国却面临通货紧缩的压力,主要原因是制造业快速扩张,而国内需求相对疲软。

多个关键清洁能源行业都受到这一趋势的影响。尽管产量不断增长,但供过于求导致收入和利润增长乏力,使该行业的实际贡献在一定程度上被忽视。

以太阳能电池板制造为例,尽管产量大幅增长,但行业名义产值下降了41%。

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不过,由于项目数量激增,加上太阳能电池板成本仅占整个太阳能发电项目成本的不到三分之一,太阳能项目的投资名义价值仍保持稳定。

太阳能发电电力价值增长了40%,使得太阳能行业对名义GDP增长的总体贡献率上升至正值。

总体来看,清洁能源行业的增加值按名义计算增长了约8.5%,低于实际增长率的15%,但仍远高于GDP增速,占名义GDP增长的17%。

2024年12月,一场重要的年度经济政策会议强调,需要“积极营造绿色低碳产业健康发展生态”。这表明政府可能会采取措施解决清洁制造业供应过剩和该行业盈利能力较弱的问题。

清洁能源经济快速增长的影响

清洁能源行业连续第二年在中国经济增长目标的实现中发挥了关键作用。

供应增加和价格下降的双重因素,导致中国清洁能源部署速度远超几年前的预期,同时也促进了清洁能源在新兴海外市场的部署。

预计这一增长趋势将在2025年延续,这主要得益于多个重大项目都致力于在“十四五”规划(2021-2025年)收官前完工。

2025年以后,该行业的发展将在很大程度上取决于今年即将完成的下一个五年计划(2026-2030年)中的新目标和政策。

随着近几年清洁能源发电装机容量的闪电式扩张,该行业正陷入盈利能力下降和产能过剩的困境。

若要恢复行业盈利能力,中国既需要保持强劲的国内需求,也需要采取措施解决产能过剩问题。此外,弃电问题(尤其对太阳能发电产生限制)也亟需解决,以确保市场需求能持续释放。

根据中国主要部委提出的2030年和2035年目标所显示的初步迹象,中国难以将关键清洁能源技术需求维持在2023-2024年水平。

如果清洁能源行业在下一个五年规划时期的目标低于当前部署速度,该行业可能从拉动GDP增长的推动力转变为拖累因素,并加剧供过于求的问题。相反,更具雄心的清洁能源目标将有助于保持该行业对经济的积极贡献。

鉴于清洁能源在投资增长中发挥的重要作用,政府的经济刺激措施可能会支持清洁能源领域的投资。

此外,清洁能源现在在中国经济增长中的关键作用,也使得政策制定者更有动力确保该行业的健康发展。

The post 分析:2024年清洁能源对中国GDP的贡献将达到创纪录的10% appeared first on Carbon Brief.

分析:2024年清洁能源对中国GDP的贡献将达到创纪录的10%

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The Land Came First

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An older teaching about land acknowledgement

As I have come to understand the spirit and intention of land acknowledgement, I often return to fond memories of my grandmother and her words of wisdom. She taught that the health of the places we call home comes first, because the wellbeing of the people depends on it.

In her teaching, land acknowledgement began with the land. Long before it became a paragraph read at the start of a meeting, it was a way of recognizing a homeland: its waters, its species, its seasons, and the spirit that revealed whether the place was well.

Her teaching echoes a practice found across many Indigenous Nations. Haudenosaunee gatherings, for example, have long opened with the Ohén:ton Karihwatéhkwen, the Thanksgiving Address, often translated as “the words that come before all else.” The speaker greets and gives thanks to the people, the earth, the waters, the plants, the animals, the winds, the sun, the moon and the stars. Only after everything that sustains life has been acknowledged does the gathering turn to its own business.

That order changes what an acknowledgement is for. Its purpose was to share the story of a place with neighbours and to draw them into the work of tending it. People entered the story second, as the ones responsible for what had just been named.

Understood this way, an acknowledgement does more than open a meeting. It asks us to reconsider where we stand, and what we owe the ground beneath us.

Nations among nations

In her teaching, people are one nation among many. The salmon are a nation. So are the cedars, the bison, the medicine plants, and the pollinators. Each belongs to a place, carries its own responsibilities, and offers gifts no other nation can give.

This idea of kinship runs through many Indigenous philosophies. The phrase “all my relations,” heard in ceremonies and gatherings across Turtle Island, is a reminder that family extends beyond people to the animals, plants, waters and lands that make life possible. Some Indigenous languages carry the same understanding in their grammar, speaking of many plants, animals and natural forces as living beings rather than objects.

Sovereignty, understood through this relationship, is a kind of standing more than a form of control. Each nation belongs fully to its place and carries its share of that place’s life. No nation thrives alone, and none thrives by taking over the whole.

The land is also the source of instruction. Over generations, people watched how a river valley or a stretch of prairie kept itself well: who arrived when, who fed whom, and how much could be taken before the giving stopped. In my grandmother’s telling, those observations became instructions, and those instructions helped shape law and protocol. They guided when to harvest, where to camp, how to enter a neighbour’s territory, and what was owed in return.

Indigenous legal scholars today often describe this as law that comes from the land itself, learned by watching how living systems sustain one another. A plainer name for it is knowing how to live somewhere.

The host and the guest

One of the clearest teachings in this understanding of the world is the relationship between host and guest. My grandmother invited us to recognize that relationship in the lives of plants and animals.

A host prepares the place before anyone arrives. A beaver family dams a stream, and the pond becomes a home for fish, frogs, birds and plants. A fallen tree becomes a nurse log, feeding the next generation of seedlings as it returns to the soil.

A host offers first. A flowering plant sets out nectar. A berry bush ripens fruit. These provisions come in their own season, not whenever a visitor happens to want them.

A host also makes its presence known. Birdsong, scent and the marks left along a trail tell newcomers that a place is already inhabited. The visitor does not arrive in an empty world.

The guest has responsibilities too. A guest attends to the season and to what the place can offer. A guest does not assume that everything within reach is theirs to take. A guest leaves something that helps sustain the relationship.

A bee takes nectar and carries pollen. Read through this teaching, that exchange offers an image of visiting well: receiving a gift while helping the host continue its life.

Many Indigenous harvesting protocols carry the same ethic into daily practice: ask before taking, take only what is needed, offer thanks, and leave enough for others and for the plant or animal to recover.

None of this suggests that every relationship in nature is peaceful or generous. These are ways of seeing responsibilities that people can learn to carry.

Everyone is both

No being is only a host or only a guest.

A tree makes room for other life while depending on soil, water, sunlight, fungi, and relationships beyond itself. People, too, may welcome others into their homes while remaining dependent on the larger homeland that sustains them.

The distinction between host and guest is therefore about roles, not ranks. Everyone receives. Everyone has something to give.

The question is whether the exchange sustains the place.

A visitor who takes without restraint leaves less for those who come next. A host who neglects the place has less to offer. Both have responsibilities, and neither can fulfil them alone.

This is the heart of reciprocity, a principle found across Indigenous philosophies: relationships stay healthy when gifts move in both directions. The Haudenosaunee teaching of the seventh generation extends that exchange across time, asking that decisions made today leave the place well for those not yet born.

Mutual benefit begins here, with the recognition that different beings carry different gifts and obligations.

What people carry forward

My grandmother’s teaching connects these relationships to the ways people meet their neighbours.

The host prepares a place, offers food and rest, and explains where the visitor has arrived. The guest makes themselves known, explains why they have come, listens to the terms of the visit, and brings something in return. The gift may be material. It may also be labour, knowledge, news, or a commitment to help.

Nations around the Great Lakes carried this ethic into treaty. The Dish with One Spoon, an agreement among the Haudenosaunee, Anishinaabe and allied Nations, describes shared hunting grounds as a single dish. Everyone eats from it with one spoon, takes only what they need, leaves enough for others, and keeps the dish clean. The Two Row Wampum, between the Haudenosaunee and European newcomers, shows two vessels travelling side by side on the same river, each keeping its own ways and neither steering the other.

In this understanding, acknowledgement is more than naming the people associated with a territory. It is learning enough about a homeland to behave responsibly within it.

Whose home is this? What sustains it? What laws and agreements guide our presence? What can we receive, and what must we return?

These questions make acknowledgement a relationship rather than a recital.

They also make it diplomatic. A guest who recognizes the host’s homeland recognizes that they have entered a place with its own relationships and responsibilities. A host who welcomes the guest makes room for an encounter governed by those relationships.

Neither arrives without standing. Neither arrives without obligations.

Beginning with place

I write from the shores of the Bay of Quinte. Here, the teaching asks me to begin with the water, the shoreline, and the life they sustain. Before I describe myself, I must attend to where I am.

That does not make people or history less important. It places them within the homeland that gives them meaning. The people, their laws, their agreements, and their responsibilities all belong to the place.

In a time of longer fire seasons, troubled waters, and uncertainty about what the next season will bring, this teaching asks something difficult and useful of us: pay attention before you speak.

An acknowledgement cannot tell the story of a place if the speaker has stopped noticing it.

The land came first. Beginning there again means learning to name what sustains us, and accepting that what sustains us also asks something of us.

By Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

Photo by Andrik Langfield on Unsplash

The post The Land Came First appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

The Land Came First

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Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

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