A “resurgence” in construction of new coal-fired power plants in China is “undermining the country’s clean-energy progress”, says a new joint report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
The country began building 94.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power capacity and resumed 3.3GW of suspended projects in 2024, the highest level of construction in the past 10 years, according to the two thinktanks.
The accelerated buildout, fuelled by investment from the coal-mining sector, “raises critical concerns” about China’s ability to transition away from the fossil fuel, the report warns.
Analysts expect China’s huge clean-energy capacity additions to slowly squeeze coal’s share of electricity generation, as China works towards its “dual-carbon” goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060.
As things stand, rapid coal-power expansion is posing a “challenge” to China’s high-level climate commitments, including on reducing coal use, CREA and GEM argue.
They point to a range of policies that could help China get back on track, including ending new coal plant approvals, as well as power market and grid reform.
Construction fever
Construction started on 94.5GW of new coal-fired power plants in 2024, according to the study. It says this is a sign of continued momentum in developing new coal projects, despite government pledges to “strictly” control the use of the fossil fuel. The report adds that 3.3GW of suspended projects also resumed construction in 2024.
Approvals for new coal construction rebounded in the second half of the year to 66.7GW, after permitting only 9GW in the first half.
Taken altogether, the report says this signals a substantial amount of new capacity will come online in the next few years, “solidifying” coal’s place as a major source of electricity.
As shown in the chart below, China’s new or resumed construction of coal-power plants declined steadily from 84.3GW in 2015 to 32.1GW in 2021. However, it has since risen from 2022, driven by a wave of new projects.
From 2022 onwards, new and revived proposals to initiate coal-power projects also surged, reaching 146GW in 2022 and 117GW in 2023 – well above pre-pandemic levels.
However, the report notes, new proposals fell to 68.9GW in 2024, which could point to “potential cooling in project initiation”. In 2023, China accounted for 95% of the world’s new coal construction.
Meanwhile, retirement and mothballing of old coal plants remains “low”, the report says. This is particularly pronounced in recent years, with the amount of capacity being closed down each year dropping sharply from around 13GW in 2020 to 2.5GW in 2024.
All of this stands in “direct conflict” with Chinese president Xi Jinping’s pledge in 2021 to “strictly limit the increase in coal consumption” between 2021 and 2026, the report says, as well as China’s 2030 carbon-peaking action plan. It adds:
“The policy direction set in China’s updated climate targets for 2035 under the Paris Agreement and the upcoming 15th five-year plan [2026-2030] will be critical to determining the trajectory of China’s coal-power sector and with that, its emissions trajectory.”
This echoes recent analysis published by Carbon Brief.
Fuelled by industry interests
The renewed coal drive is largely being pushed by the mining industry, according to the report, with coal-mining companies increasingly investing in coal-power projects.
More than three-quarters of all newly approved coal power projects were financed by “coal mining companies or energy groups with coal-mining operations”, the study says.
It suggests this may be partly driven by China’s “dual-carbon” goals, which have pushed those companies to diversify in order to “secure stable demand for their output through 2030 and beyond”.
These investments include integrated coal mine-to-power and “pithead” plants, as well as typical coal-fired power plants developed by energy groups with coal-mining operations.
The report notes that many regional coal and energy companies have “intensified” coal-power investments, “aligning their strategies to sustain coal’s dominance at the provincial level”.
It adds that major coal-producing provinces – such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Gansu – were also commissioning and building the most new coal power, as shown in the map below. However, China’s biggest coal-producing province, Shanxi, was not among the provinces with the most activity around new coal power in 2024.
‘Undermining’ the energy transition
The rapid buildout of coal could combine with structural features of the power system that favour the coal industry, the report says, to limit renewables’ ability to become China’s main provider of electricity.
China installed record amounts of renewable energy capacity in 2024, bringing total solar and wind capacity up to 890GW and 520GW, respectively. Coal capacity in 2024 was 1,200GW.
The growing amount of low-carbon electricity in China’s mix was expected to cover new demand and reduce coal’s importance in the system, in a policy known as “establish [new systems] before breaking [old ones]” (先立后破).
However, the report notes, the flurry of new coal construction “makes it increasingly difficult to achieve” this. Instead, it says there is a risk that renewable energy will be treated as a supplementary power source “layered on top” of coal.
This is partly due to several policy structures that prioritise the use of coal power and protect the industry’s interests, it explains.
Most power grids lock in coal-power supply through mechanisms such as medium- to long-term contracts for purchasing power and long-term coal supply agreements, obligating provinces to use a certain amount of the fuel, even when other sources of electricity are more cost-effective.
Provincial governments are also moving away from requiring power purchase agreements (PPAs) to include a minimum share of solar and wind, the report says, resulting in “an uneven playing field where coal power remains insulated from risk while wind and solar developers face price fluctuations and uncertain demand”.
The development of new coal-power plants will “further limit grid space for renewables”, it adds, making it harder for solar and wind power generators to gain significant market share.
Coal’s predominance in the system may have also led to a substantial recent uptick in curtailment of renewable energy. According to calculations in the report, the final quarter of 2024 likely saw a curtailment rate of around 5.5%, rather than the officially reported 3.2%.
The report attributes this to “structural constraints”, rather than weather-driven availability of solar and wind resources.
Opportunity for change in 2025
Forecasts by the coal industry signal that it expects the coal-power sector to continue growing, causing “increasingly unsustainable conflict” between China’s energy security and low-carbon policies, the report notes.
The report suggests strong policy direction in 2025 would be needed to counteract coal’s dominance in the energy system.
This could be achieved, firstly, by reducing the amount of coal in the energy system, such as by setting “ambitious and measurable” targets for reducing coal consumption, phasing down coal plants, utilisation of coal plants in operation and uptake of renewables.
Other potential levers could include ending new coal-power plant approvals and accelerating the retirement of older units.
Secondly, the report points to reform of the mechanisms that steer power providers towards coal – including reducing the amount of coal covered in long-term PPAs and coal supply agreements – and prioritising grid reform and the development of spot markets.
These steps, it argues, would “help implement China’s ambition to phase down coal, create space for renewables, and drive a cleaner, more efficient energy system”.
The post China’s construction of new coal-power plants ‘reached 10-year high’ in 2024 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China’s construction of new coal-power plants ‘reached 10-year high’ in 2024
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 6 March 2026: Iran energy crisis | China climate plan | Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ wind turbine
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Energy crisis
ENERGY SPIKE: US-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent counterattacks across the Middle East have sent energy prices “soaring”, according to Reuters. The newswire reported that the region “accounts for just under a third of global oil production and almost a fifth of gas”. The Guardian noted that shipping traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, “all but ground to a halt”. The Financial Times reported that attacks by Iran on Middle East energy facilities – notably in Qatar – triggered the “biggest rise in gas prices since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.
‘RISK’ AND ‘BENEFITS’: Bloomberg reported on increases in diesel prices in Europe and the US, speculating that rising fuel costs could be “a risk for president Donald Trump”. US gas producers are “poised to benefit from the big disruption in global supply”, according to CNBC. Indian government sources told the Economic Times that Russia is prepared to “fulfil India’s energy demands”. China Daily quoted experts who said “China’s energy security remains fundamentally unshaken”, thanks to “emergency stockpiles and a wide array of import channels”.
‘ESSENTIAL’ RENEWABLES: Energy analysts said governments should cut their fossil-fuel reliance by investing in renewables, “rather than just seeking non-Gulf oil and gas suppliers”, reported Climate Home News. This message was echoed by UK business secretary Peter Kyle, who said “doubling down on renewables” was “essential” amid “regional instability”, according to the Daily Telegraph.
China’s climate plan
PEAK COAL?: China has set out its next “five-year plan” at the annual “two sessions” meeting of the National People’s Congress, including its climate strategy out to 2030, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. The plan called for China to cut its carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 17% from 2026 to 2030, which “may allow for continued increase in emissions given the rate of GDP growth”, reported Reuters. The newswire added that the plan also had targets to reach peak coal in the next five years and replace 30m tonnes per year of coal with renewables.
ACTIVE YET PRUDENT: Bloomberg described the new plan as “cautious”, stating that it “frustrat[es] hopes for tighter policy that would drive the nation to peak carbon emissions well before president Xi Jinping’s 2030 deadline”. Carbon Brief has just published an in-depth analysis of the plan. China Daily reported that the strategy “highlights measures to promote the climate targets of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030”, which China said it would work towards “actively yet prudently”.
Around the world
- EU RULES: The European Commission has proposed new “made in Europe” rules to support domestic low-carbon industries, “against fierce competition from China”, reported Agence France-Presse. Carbon Brief examined what it means for climate efforts.
- RECORD HEAT: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said there is a 50-60% chance that the El Niño weather pattern could return this year, amplifying the effect of global warming and potentially driving temperatures to “record highs”, according to Euronews.
- FLAGSHIP FUND: The African Development Bank’s “flagship clean energy fund” plans to more than double its financing to $2.5bn for African renewables over the next two years, reported the Associated Press.
- NO WITHDRAWAL: Vanuatu has defied US efforts to force the Pacific-island nation to drop a UN draft resolution calling on the world to implement a landmark International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on climate, according to the Guardian.
98
The number of nations that submitted their national reports on tackling nature loss to the UN on time – just half of the 196 countries that are part of the UN biodiversity treaty – according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- Sea levels are already “much higher than assumed” in most assessments of the threat posed by sea-level rise, due to “inadequate” modelling assumptions | Nature
- Accelerating human-caused global warming could see the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit crossed before 2030 | Geophysical Research Letters covered by Carbon Brief
- Future “super El Niño events” could “significantly lower” solar power generation due to a reduction in solar irradiance in key regions, such as California and east China | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 fell to 54% below 1990 levels, the baseline year for its legally binding climate goals, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. Over the same period, data from the World Bank shows that the UK’s economy has expanded by 95%, meaning that emissions have been decoupling from growth.
Spotlight
Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ community wind turbine
Following the recent launch of the UK government’s lo