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China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan

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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

New five-year plans

GENERATION TARGET: China today released its 15th five-year plan for building a “new-type energy system”, according to finance news outlet Cailianshe. It said the plan covered topics including energy sources, power-market reform and China’s role in clean-energy supply chains and climate governance. The plan, published by the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will aim for clean energy to constitute 30% of power generation by 2030 – up from approximately 22% today. It also stated that wind and solar will become the “mainstay” of China’s power mix. The government will work to increase clean-energy consumption, such as by upgrading the grid to “accommodate” 900 gigawatts of distributed energy and promoting emerging solutions such as virtual power plants and hydrogen. The plan also urged the “strengthening” of coal’s role as a “bottom-line guarantee”.

IN THE WORKS: At a meeting on 11 June, China’s State Council approved the “15th five-year plan for building a beautiful China”, reported industry news outlet BJX News. The meeting readout noted the importance of “actively address[ing] climate change” and developing “green production and lifestyles”, it added. The next day, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) approved a series of environment-related five-year plans, including the “15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change”, said business news outlet 21st Century Business Herald article. The full text of the plans is not yet available.

JOBS AND GOVERNANCE: A separate five-year plan on employment included calls to “unlock employment potential” by developing “new energy system” projects, according to current affairs outlet China News. The government also published a white paper on global governance that said the “general public truly feels that nations are taking action and that unity can overcome any obstacle” to address climate change, reported state news agency Xinhua. It added that the paper called on developed countries to “honor their commitments” on climate finance. Foreign minister Wang Yi said in a press conference that China aims to “innovate governance mechanisms” to address issues such as how countries can “achieve” a global low-carbon transition, Xinhua also reported.

Critical mineral barbs

REDUCE DEPENDENCIES: The Group of Seven (G7) major economies have stated that “no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of rare earths”, reported Bloomberg, in “an effort to reduce their reliance on China”. The full communique, which does not mention China by name, said that diversifying supply chains was “urgen[t]”, due to “market concentration”, the “growing use of arbitrary trade restrictions” and the need to “reduce vulnerabilities”. In response, China’s foreign ministry urged the G7 to “stop disrupting the international trade order” with “self-made rules”.

EXPORTS BLOCKED: The Indonesian government’s new nickel production quotas and pricing rules could put $50bn of Chinese investment at risk, Chinese diplomats argued in a letter covered by the Financial Times. Lithium miners in Zimbabwe, including Chinese firms, are asking for more time to build local processing facilities ahead of a 2027 lithium concentrate export ban, said Reuters. Meanwhile, China restricted trade with two US rare-earth companies, in response to the US adding companies including CATL and BYD to a “blacklist”, said the Financial Times. China’s exports to Japan of rare earths used to make permanent magnets remain “negligible”, reported Reuters.

DIALOGUE URGED: EU member states have asked the European Commission to develop new trade instruments to deal with the “economic threat” posed by China, reported the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. Despite “combative rhetoric” ahead of the summit, the Financial Times reported that the 27 leaders opted for dialogue rather than immediate action to address “global macroeconomic imbalances”. Separately, the European Commission plans to impose tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, reported German business newspaper Handelsblatt.

CLIMATE MINISTERIAL: The EU, China and Canada held a climate ministerial, in which Chinese environment minister Huang Runqiu said countries “must strengthen cooperation rather than retreat from it”, said Euronews. Climate outlet Tanpaifang reported that Huang also said COP31 should address “insufficient emission reduction efforts and financial support from developed countries”. According to a European Commission transcript, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said: “We need to act for climate, but also for competitiveness and independence. We cannot afford to depend on third countries.”

Mandatory targets for energy users

NEW TARGETS: From August, the Chinese government will “set binding targets” for companies on how much low-carbon power and non-electric energy they must consume, said Bloomberg. It added that targets will be set for how much low-carbon power provinces must absorb into their grids. Provinces and “key energy-consuming industries” will see their uptake of clean energy monitored on a quarterly basis and be subject to annual assessments by the State Council, said industry news outlet International Energy Net.

END-USER PRESSURE: The announcement marks the first time that China has established targets for non-fossil energy consumption at the “end-user level”, reported economic news outlet Jiemian. It added that the previous system, which only covered power, placed the responsibility for absorbing renewable energy into the grid “primarily” onto local governments and power grid companies.

SUPPORTING THE MARKET: The new measures will “help address grid integration challenges and promote better utilisation of renewable energy”, an official at the National Energy Administration told reporters, according to Xinhua. The official said it would also help boost demand for other low-carbon industries, such as “green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol”. Liu Guobin, vice-president of the China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute said in an “explanation” posted on International Energy Net that the measures would also “convey clear…expectations to the market” for the long-term outlook for renewable energy, “guiding the rational allocation of investment”.

More China news

  • BECALMED: China’s thermal power generation rose 2.1% year-on-year in May, as “lower wind speeds curbed renewable energy growth”, reported Reuters.
  • TRUCK TARGET: The government issued a new plan for developing “new-energy heavy duty trucks (HDTs)” that aims to have sales of electric, hydrogen and other low-carbon HDTs account for 40% of new truck sales by 2030, said Xinhua.
  • SUPERMASSIVE SYSTEM: China’s total power capacity reached 4,000 gigawatts in May, reported BJX News, larger than that of the US, EU, India, Russia and Japan combined. Coal’s share of the capacity mix fell to 32%, while the non-fossil share rose to 62%.
  • EXPORT DRIVER: China’s exports of electric vehicles (EVs) rose 54% year-on-year in May to $10bn by value and lithium-battery exports “rose 37% to $8bn”, but solar cell exports fell 7% by value to $2bn, said Caixin. The thinktank Ember found that Chinese EV exports to south-east Asia, particularly Thailand and the Philippines, reached an “all-time high” of $1.2bn.
  • ONGOING RISK: The heavy rainfall seen throughout June, as well as drought, is likely to continue during China’s flood season, said the Ministry of Emergency Management in comments covered by Jiemian
  • PROJECTION PUSHBACK: The China Energy Research Society’s Wang Weiquan described projections by BloombergNEF of China’s emissions reduction and share of coal in the power mix as “overly optimistic” and “even radical”, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily.

Spotlight 

What is in China’s new three-year action plan for industry?

China has issued a new action plan for energy conservation and reducing carbon emissions across nine heavy industries.

In this issue, Carbon Brief examines how the plan will impact China’s industrial development and decarbonisation.

China will conduct an “intensive campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades” across heavy industry between 2026 and 2028.

The plan targets nine key industries: steel; electrolytic aluminum; cement; flat glass; oil refining; ethylene; synthetic ammonia; methanol; and coal-fired power.

After 2028, it said that production capacity that does not meet efficiency standards will be phased out and that efforts will be broadened to other industries.

Combined, power and industry make up the vast majority of China’s emissions profile.

Emissions in some of these sectors – notably, steel and cement – have been falling. However, chemical-industry emissions have experienced double-digit growth.

China’s power sector, which generates the majority of its electricity through coal, is responsible for around 40% of the country’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Focused on efficiency

The plan outlined several measures for companies to take to reduce their energy use and emissions profile.

According to a Carbon Brief count, the majority are focused on energy efficiency, such as promoting high-efficiency industrial processes and upgrading energy-consuming equipment.

More than 70% of China’s steel, aluminium, cement and flat glass capacity does not meet energy efficiency benchmarks, said a government official in a Q&A published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Yang Zhou, senior advisor China at Agora Energiewende, told Carbon Brief that the policy will “pick the last lowest hanging fruit” in terms of eliminating low-efficiency capacity. After this, she said, the focus will turn to entering a “deep-water” phase of decarbonising industrial capacity, as well as making it more efficient.

Some of the measures that companies are encouraged to take in the plan do directly link to decarbonisation. These include developing “hydrogen metallurgy” and sourcing low-carbon materials and fuels, as well as increasing electrification and renewable power usage.

The coal-power industry should improve flexibility, decouple combined heat and power operations and integrate biomass and renewable energy into their operations, it said.

Coal plants are expected to reduce coal consumption per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity by “at least five grams of standard coal” and carbon emissions per kWh by 10%-20%, if not more.

The document said that the share of coal-fired power capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks should improve by 15 percentage points by 2028. This rises to 20 percentage points for the other eight industries.

By 2028, according to the NDRC, the plan aims to cut energy use by more than 100m tonnes of standard coal per year and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 200m tonnes.

Supporting business

Companies will receive support from the central government, which will subsidise 20% of the total investment that “approved” projects require.

Provinces should “fully leverage” pricing mechanisms to encourage retrofitting, said the policy.

Local policymakers can now add a surcharge of up to 0.1 yuan ($0.15) per kWh to market-traded electricity prices for non-compliant producers – which finance outlet Caixin said was a “central” tool for enforcement.

The South China Morning Post quoted an unnamed analyst, however, saying the policy may not “deliver its intended effects”, as some industries still receive subsidised electricity from local governments.

Companies will also be able to use verified CO2 emission reductions from approved projects to “offset” emissions from “new, renovated or expanded” dual-high projects. For industries covered by China’s carbon market, this may be formalised in their emissions allowances.

The NDRC official said that support should be provided to “ensure they receive reasonable returns on their carbon emission allowances”.

The policy “seeks to strike a balance” between energy security and climate goals, rejecting the “radical thinking of ‘one-size-fits-all shutdowns and phase-outs’”, according to a widely-read commentary by Sprinting Power Worker, a “self-media” WeChat account.

“For industries such as coal power, steel and cement, a gradual capacity reduction is expected due to market forces,” said Yang. She added:

“For growing sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, China’s strategy is to expand capacity, [albeit] increasingly concentrated, scaled-up and efficient. Continued decarbonisation will require large-scale deployment of solutions like electrification, green power-green hydrogen coupling and circular economy.”

Watch, read, listen

SULPHURIC SLOWDOWN: Rhodium Group published an analysis of how China’s efforts to restrict exports of sulphuric acid could impact global electrification efforts.

ARCTIC ACTIVITY: The Circumpolar podcast explored the variety of interests, including energy and the environment, driving China’s actions in the Arctic.

TRANSITION IN NUMBERS: Thinktank Agora Energiewende hosted a webinar on its new report, which outlined key trends in China’s energy transition.

CARBON TAX: The Center for Strategic and International Studies looked into how China is responding to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism.


4.9%

The amount by which China’s oil consumption is expected to fall in 2026 compared to the year before, according to a report by a thinktank under oil giant PetroChina, covered by Reuters. It said the decline is due to the “pivot to new energy and high ​oil prices due to the Iran war”, according to the report.


New science

  • Economically developed Chinese cities “transferred” 42% of their greenhouse gas emissions related to plug-in electric vehicles to less developed cities in 2020, “substantially increasing” the recipients’ climate mitigation costs | Nature Cities
  • Renewable energy development “significantly reduces” urban-rural income inequality in Chinese cities | World Development
  • Grain trading between Chinese provinces increased more than fivefold between 1980 and 2020 and production shifted northward, driving a more than 217% increase in “embodied nitrogen losses and greenhouse gas emissions” | Nature Food

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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu. It is edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

The post China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 25 June 2026: Five-year plans passed | Critical-mineral tensions | Industrial decarbonisation plan

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Livestock heat deaths in transit doubled in UK record-hot summer of 2025

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Twice as many animals died due to heat stress en route to slaughterhouses during the UK’s record-hot summer in 2025 compared to 2024, according to new Carbon Brief analysis.

Government figures showed that nearly 6,600 animals – mostly chickens – died in transport as a result of the sweltering summer heat in England and Wales from June to August 2025.

This compared to 3,100 in summer 2024 and no official cases in summer 2023.

These figures were still below the more than 18,500 deaths recorded in the summer of 2022 when UK temperatures hit 40C for the first time, as previously reported by Carbon Brief.

The deaths are a “horrifying reminder of what happens when animals are treated as cargo”, said an animal-rights group spokesperson.

Detailed descriptions included in the data on the deaths highlighted thousands of animals dying amid heat stress, high humidity levels and long journeys.

Thousands of animals also died due to cold, wintry conditions, with more than 13,000 deaths recorded between December 2024 and February 2025 – almost double the previous winter.

Heat deaths

Carbon Brief has analysed recent years of “dead on arrival” data focused on livestock that died due to heat or cold stress en route to slaughterhouses.

The data was obtained through the UK Freedom of Information (FOI) Act from the Food Standards Agency (FSA), which is responsible for the compliance of slaughterhouses in England and Wales.

At least 1m chickens die in the UK each year while being transported to slaughterhouses due to suffocation, poor transport procedures and other issues, reported the Bureau of Investigative Journalism in 2018 .

Pigs, cows, sheep and other animals also die in this way in smaller numbers.

The new data showed that 6,595 animals died due to heat stress en route to abattoirs between June and August 2025, which was the warmest summer on record in the UK.

According to the Met Office, human-caused climate change made this summer heat 70 times more likely to occur.

Tourists sheltering from high temperatures in London on 11 August 2025.
Tourists sheltering from high temperatures in London on 11 August 2025. Credit: Stephen Chung / Alamy Stock Photo

Carbon Brief requested non-publicly accessible details of “dead on arrival cases” that were categorised as “suspected heat/cold stress”.

Each incident contained a detailed description written by a vet with supporting evidence about the condition of the animals, the transport conditions and the suspected cause of death. These are filed to the FSA.

The information showed that certain individual days had particularly high death tolls. Almost 1,000 chickens died in a number of incidents during a heatwave on 11 July 2025. Some chickens showed visible signs of heat stress, such as panting and immobility, the reports said.

On 12 August, amid more high temperatures, 2,154 chickens died in heat-stress incidents.

Body temperatures of some of the chickens that died on this day were as high as 46C.

A chicken will die if its body temperature exceeds 45C and it should ideally stay as close to 41C as possible, according to a 2005 document from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra).

The table below shows the total number of heat- and cold-related deaths of livestock in recent years, based on the data obtained through FOI.

The “dead on arrival” information covered every summer and winter since 2023, alongside the summer of 2022.

The figures were likely an underestimate of the total number of livestock deaths due to high or low temperatures, as they only included deaths with “suspected cold/heat stress” as a listed category.

However, the incident descriptions in many other deaths mentioned high and low temperatures as contributing factors, despite the ultimate cause of death not being labelled as such. These were not included in Carbon Brief’s tally.

The figures covered deaths in England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland do not record the cause of deaths en route to slaughterhouses, so it is not possible to single out the cases linked to high or low temperatures.

Preventing deaths

These livestock deaths are a “horrifying reminder of what happens when animals are treated as cargo”, says Alex Harman, campaigns manager at animal rights group Animal Aid. He tells Carbon Brief:

“These 6,600 individuals [in summer 2025] did not just die, they suffered prolonged, agonising heat exhaustion inside metal containers – anyone experiencing the UK’s heatwave this week will be able to empathise.”

Climate change is “simply amplifying the violence already built into animal farming”, he says, adding that the only “compassionate, logical” solution is to “stop viewing animals as products and urgently transition to a plant-based food system”.

Lorry transporting caged live chickens in Lancashire, UK in 2016.
Lorry transporting caged live chickens in Lancashire, UK in 2016. Credit: EnVogue_Photo / Alamy Stock Photo

Pigs and chickens cannot sweat and face difficulties cooling down on very hot days.

Cramped or long journeys can exacerbate this, combined with high humidity levels, sometimes upwards of 80%, the livestock data showed.

Abigail Penny, the executive director of Animal Equality UK, tells Carbon Brief that “these same scenes of extreme animal suffering play out every summer and, if nothing is done, it’s only going to get worse”.

Workers transporting animals during extreme weather conditions are expected to put in place measures to protect them, according to UK government guidance.

These measures can include ensuring water and ventilation systems function properly on vehicles, avoiding travel during the hottest or coldest parts of the day and recognising signs of heat and cold stress in animals.

The FSA said that the number of “dead on arrival” incidents caused by cold and heat stress increased by more than 50% between April 2024 and March 2025 compared to the same period the year prior.

The FSA and Defra declined Carbon Brief’s request to comment on the new figures.

Chickens in a hen house in 2019.
Chickens in a hen house in 2019. Credit: Mint Images Limited / Alamy Stock Photo

Cold deaths

Thousands of animals also die due to cold stress while travelling to slaughterhouses each year. Carbon Brief assessed data for these deaths in the winters of 2023-24 and 2024-25.

At least 13,057 livestock animals died due to cold weather conditions between December 2024 and February 2025. This is more than double the number – 6,981 – that died the previous winter.

On 6 February 2025 alone, 4,056 poultry deaths were reported due to cold weather impacts.

Some livestock also died due to cold conditions in the summer months.

For example, 326 animals died amid cold weather in the summer of 2023. No official heat-related deaths were recorded in that period, but a number of incidents referred to hot-weather conditions or heat stress as contributing factors.

Overall, 2023 was a very warm year in the UK, with soaring temperatures in June and September. At least 3,103 animals died from heat stress in September, the figures also showed.

Conditions were cooler and wetter in July and August, which may have contributed to the absence of heat-stress deaths.

Most cold deaths during warmer months occurred in the early hours of the morning or overnight when temperatures dropped, the FOI data shows.

On 28 August 2025, for example, 134 chickens died due to cold stress. The incident description outlined that the animals were “very wet”, dirty and had few feathers, which can reduce a chicken’s ability to hold warmth.

The animals were transported overnight to a slaughterhouse and “suffered distress and pain” because of the weather and other factors, the description noted.

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Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time

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For the first time in the UK, more new electric vehicles (EVs) have been sold over a 12-month period than petrol cars, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

The news comes amid a battle over the future of the UK’s “zero-emissions vehicle” (ZEV) mandate, which the car industry and some unions are pushing to water down.

The mandate sets a rising target for the share of new car sales that must be “zero-emissions vehicles” (ZEVs) each year – primarily “pure” or “battery” EVs that only run on electricity.

The car industry argues that demand for these cars is too low to meet the requirements of the ZEV mandate, despite the fact that the industry has “over-complied” to date.

Carbon Brief’s analysis of the latest data on new UK car sales, shown in the figure below, illustrates that demand for EVs has, in fact, grown consistently – and it has now overtaken demand for petrol cars for the first time.

In the 12 months to May 2026, UK consumers bought 516,490 new BEVs, against only 504,010 new petrol cars.

Chart showing that UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time
Number of new EVs and petrol cars sold in the UK, units per 12-month period. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

Note that the analysis is based on figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). Figures published by the UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) are based on a slightly different categorisation for hybrid cars.

All hybrids run entirely on petrol or diesel fuel, while also carrying a small battery and an electric motor. ACEA counts these cars separately to petrol and diesel models.

In contrast, the SMMT counts what it calls “mild” hybrids as petrol cars, while listing “full” hybrids – such as Toyota’s Prius – in a separate category.

The ACEA data shows that hybrids are the most popular type of car in the UK, as illustrated in the figure below, but also shows that their sales are relatively stagnant.

Some 56,321 hybrids were sold in May 2026, the most recent month with data from ACEA. This is an increase of 1,181 year-on-year, or just 2%.

In contrast, EV sales grew 34% to reach 43,931, while petrol cars were down 14% to 35,068.

Plug-in hybrids, which can be run on electricity from the grid or from a petrol engine, are also seeing relatively rapid sales growth, up 24% year-on-year in May 2026 to 22,167.

(In the UK, numberplates for “pure” EVs that only run on electricity are marked out by a distinctive green stripe on the left-hand side. These stripes are not used for any type of hybrid.)

Chart showing that hybrids are the most common new cars in the UK – but EVs are catching up
Number of new cars sold in the UK by fuel type, May 2025 and 2026. Source: ACEA.

The new analysis for the UK follows a similar milestone for the EU, with more BEVs having been sold in the month of December 2025 than petrol cars.

The UK first saw more sales of BEVs than petrol cars in a single month in December 2022, but this pattern has only been repeated on a consistent basis over the past year.

Globally, EV sales grew by 20% in 2025 and accounted for one in every four new cars sold, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The agency said that global EV sales were set to grow by another 15% in 2026.

The post Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: UK sales of electric vehicles just overtook petrol cars for the first time

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