2024年对中国的能源和气候发展而言是重要的一年。二氧化碳（CO2）排放量增长全年都徘徊在2023年水平附近，这使得中国在2030年前实现碳达峰的可能性增加。
中国可再生能源的快速发展将煤电占比推至历史最低水平，同时全国碳市场覆盖的行业范围也进一步扩大。
在全球层面，中国在阿塞拜疆巴库举办的COP29联合国气候谈判上发挥了重要作用。然而，由于中美贸易关系日趋紧张，此前给全球气候行动带来希望的两国合作受到威胁。
在即将上任的特朗普政府的领导下，美国在气候谈判中的影响力预计将减弱，因此中国在气候雄心方面的表态——例如其计划在2025年发布的国际气候承诺——将成为决定国内外脱碳进程速度的重要因素。
Carbon Brief向10位顶尖专家询问了他们对中国未来一年的期待。他们的回答已经过编辑，以保证简洁明了。
杨木易博士（Dr Muyi Yang）
Ember高级电力政策分析师
2025年，中国需要在保持经济增长与推进脱碳议程之间找到微妙的平衡。要实现这一平衡，不仅需要扩大风能、太阳能和储能等可再生能源的规模，还需要对长期以来在中国能源安全和经济活动中占据核心地位的煤电进行重大转型。
这不仅仅是关闭少数几家燃煤电厂那么简单，而是要处理好煤电生态系统衰退所带来的更广泛的紧张关系和冲突。这些影响将波及电企、物流公司、采矿企业、设备制造商以及煤化工行业，以及围绕它们建立的社会经济体系。
随着中国临近关键的转折点——预计在2026年开始的“十五五规划”内实现煤炭消费的绝对减少——中国现在就需开始为这一转型进行规划。在维护经济稳定、确保能源安全和履行气候承诺的同时，成功驾驭这一复杂过程将是中国在2025年及以后取得成功的关键。
林伯强教授（Prof Boqiang Lin）
中国能源政策研究院院长
2025年，中国能源和气候发展的重点是通过几项关键举措推进“双碳”目标。“新能源”的部署将加速，海上风电、分布式光伏和分散式风电预计将显著增长。新增风电和光伏装机容量预计将至少达到200GW。（去年新增装机超过300GW）。核电将稳步推进，预计到2025年底，核电运行装机容量将达到65GW。同时，促进“煤炭清洁高效利用”工作也将取得进展，更清洁和灵活的煤电系统将继续支持风电和光伏的快速增长。
储能技术和智能电网将进一步扩展，从而促进可再生能源的大规模并网，而虚拟电厂和大规模车网互动试点的发展也将提升电网效率与能源交互能力。电动汽车（EV）配套基础设施将受到更多关注，以支持电动汽车普及率的快速提高。碳市场有望扩大到更多领域，碳价格也将逐步提高。
姚喆（Zhe Yao）
绿色和平东亚分部全球政策顾问
今年将是一个重要的里程碑。作为“十四五规划”的最后一年，我们将看到中国能否回到实现既定能源和碳强度目标的轨道上来。中国未来十年的气候计划（即新的国家自主贡献）也将发布，其雄心也将接受考验。
这也是我们或可确认中国能源消费结构转变的一年，其标志着碳达峰是否到来。这一趋势的关键指标是可再生能源能否满足所有新增电力需求。
一个更为严峻的考验是，气候方面的当务之急能否以及如何应对地缘政治的挑战。中国将面对白宫易主，以及来自欧盟在清洁产业领域日益激烈的竞争，因此中国与其传统气候伙伴之间的关系需要重塑。希望到2025年，新的气候伙伴关系能够适应不断变化的经济和地缘政治环境。
陈志斌（Zhibin Chen）
阿德菲（Adelphi）碳市场与定价高级经理
展望2025年，我认为中国碳市场的发展在几个方面大有可为。其中包括：
- 显著扩大全国碳排放权交易市场（ETS）的覆盖范围，正式纳入钢铁、水泥和铝行业；
- 在自愿碳市场上启动中国核证自愿减排量（CCER）证书的签发、交易和使用，以履行合规义务；
- 转变全国碳排放权交易市场结构，使其从基于（生产单位排放）强度的限额转变为基于总量（以二氧化碳吨数计）的绝对限额；
- 允许交易员和投资者参与全国碳排放权交易市场中的碳排放配额（CEA）交易。
其中，前两点几乎可以确定将在2025年实现，我希望其能顺利实施。后两点已被生态环境部的政策制定者提及，我希望政府能为其制定明确的时间表和实施路线图。
麦怡瑞（Dr Ilaria Mazzocco）
战略与国际研究中心中国商业与经济理事会主席、高级研究员
我关注的是中国如何应对日益紧张的对外商业关系，以及国际上对中国海外直接投资需求的增长。清洁技术——尤其是太阳能、锂电池和电动汽车这“新三样”——处于这些紧张关系的核心。
围绕气候技术制造和贸易未来的全球竞争正在酝酿，而这在很大程度上取决于中国产业的发展，包括国内需求和中国企业的盈利能力。同样重要的是，包括美国在内的中国的贸易伙伴（在未来的对华政策中）将倾向于何种类型的权衡和交易。
陈凯欣（Kyle Chan）
普林斯顿大学博士后研究员
2025年将是中国电动汽车发展的关键一年。中国国内市场的激烈竞争将进一步压低价格，激励先进驾驶辅助系统等功能上的创新，并使中国继续从燃油车向电车过渡。值得关注的是，中国出现的趋势是否会成为全球趋势的先兆，比如增程式（混合动力）电动车的流行和电池更换技术的改进。
在国际市场，中国的电动车和电池制造商正在开拓新市场，并通过在欧洲和东南亚等地大规模投资海外工厂来应对不断上升的贸易壁垒。一个重大问题是，这些投资能否得到回报，或这些市场的电动车需求是否会因当地充电基础设施不足等其他因素而受到制约。另一个关键问题是，其他国家将在多大程度上选择融入中国的电动车供应链，亦或尝试在中国周围建立供应链。
徐安琪博士（Dr Angel Hsu）
北卡罗来纳大学公共政策、环境、生态与能源副教授
我对中美在气候与能源政策上继续开展次国家层面合作的前景充满期待，尤其是两国在COP29上表现出强烈的兴趣。华盛顿州与中国代表团之间的多次技术交流等……都是令人鼓舞的发展。在过去一年所取得进展的基础上，我们已经制定了将这一对话持续到2025年的计划。
我尤其关注第三方国家和地区能否作为中立平台促进合作。例如，随着美国可能退出气候合作，中方与东盟的合作机会显著增加。中国在COP29上的积极行动，尤其是其在自愿气候融资方面的努力，使其有望在支持东南亚国家脱碳方面发挥领导作用，为区域可持续发展创造双赢局面。
弗朗顿·齐耶穆拉博士（Dr Frangton Chiyemura）
英国开放大学国际发展教育讲师
2025年，中国在能源和气候方面的若干发展值得关注。国务院在2024年设定了新目标，标志着中国朝2060年实现碳中和这一更广泛目标迈出重要一步。
这些国内政策正在影响中国的国际投资。我们可以预见，中国将加大在全球南方的小规模可再生能源项目的投资，这反映了其自身在可再生能源发展中的经验。
这一战略还包括加强与富含能源转型所需重要矿产的国家的合作，尤其是非洲国家。2025年1月，中国外长王毅展开了自2013年以来对非洲的第57次访问。他访问了乍得、刚果共和国、纳米比亚和尼日利亚，突显了这一重点，这些国家都拥有丰富的能源转型所需的矿产资源。
总体而言，这些进展表明中国正在全球气候行动和能源转型中，扮演更积极的领导角色。
刘爽（Shuang Liu）
世界资源研究所中国金融项目主任
随着在巴库举行的COP29会议设定了“新气候融资集体量化目标”，中国可通过南南合作，继续支持发展中国家的低碳和韧性转型。我们的研究显示，中国已是气候融资的重要提供者，2013年至2022年间年均提供近45亿美元。
数据显示，疫情后中国在海外的气候融资有所下降，但在过去三年一直在缓慢回升。未来气候融资增长的一个重要驱动力可能是中国及其利益相关方在发展中国家清洁能源转型中的持续投资。最近的一个例子是，在印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prabowo Subianto）去年11月访问北京期间，中国和印尼签署了关于清洁能源生产和基础设施的协议。这类合作有助于能源转型，创造更多就业机会，并有助于全球南方实现其他可持续发展目标。
王珂礼（Dr Christoph Nedopil）
亚格里菲斯大学亚洲研究中心主任、经济学教授
2025年，在伙伴国日益增长的能源转型需求的驱动下，中国在绿色能源领域的参与可能通过“一带一路”倡议进一步发展。例如，印尼总统普拉博沃在2024年12月的G20会议上宣布加速绿色能源计划，并与中国签署新协议，突显了（与中国的）针对性合作在解决本地能源的优先事项方面的作用。这不仅包括对可再生能源的投资，还涉及电池制造等关键技术。
我也希望在以下三方面取得进展：一是加速低碳能源投资的同时逐步减少化石燃料投资；二是让本地员工更多地从绿色能源转型中获益，尤其是在西方对中国绿色科技产品实施更多贸易限制的情况下；三是如何在“一带一路”倡议中加快工业和自备能源的绿色转型。未来几年的一个特别之机是与亚洲其他许多能源国企分享中国国企在电力行业的经验教训。
The post 专家：中国2025年能源与气候行动将有哪些期待？ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/translations-experts-what-to-expect-from-china-on-energy-and-climate-action-in-2025/
Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows.
Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.
The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.
The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says.
The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note.
Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.
One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.
Compound events
CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.
These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.
Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:
“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”
CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.
The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.
For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought.
Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.
The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.
In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.
In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.
The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.
Increasing events
To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.
The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.
The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.
Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.
The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).
The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.
Threshold passed
The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.
In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.
The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.
This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.
Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.
In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.
Daily data
The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh.
He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.
Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.
Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:
“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”
However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.
Compound impacts
The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.
These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.
Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.
The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.
Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:
“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”
The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 6 March 2026: Iran energy crisis | China climate plan | Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ wind turbine
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Energy crisis
ENERGY SPIKE: US-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent counterattacks across the Middle East have sent energy prices “soaring”, according to Reuters. The newswire reported that the region “accounts for just under a third of global oil production and almost a fifth of gas”. The Guardian noted that shipping traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, “all but ground to a halt”. The Financial Times reported that attacks by Iran on Middle East energy facilities – notably in Qatar – triggered the “biggest rise in gas prices since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.
‘RISK’ AND ‘BENEFITS’: Bloomberg reported on increases in diesel prices in Europe and the US, speculating that rising fuel costs could be “a risk for president Donald Trump”. US gas producers are “poised to benefit from the big disruption in global supply