Japan missed a UN deadline by submitting its new 2035 emissions reduction target a week late, reportedly because the government had received so many public comments on the 60% cut it proposed – and yet it made no changes in response to overwhelming calls to boost ambition.
The environment minister Keiichiro Asao justified the government’s decision not to strengthen its draft goal for 2035 after a month-long consultation period because arguments raised in the comments were already considered during the policy formulation phase.
“It is very disappointing that the Japanese government ultimately decided to proceed with a
low NDC target, despite claiming its NDC submission was delayed due to reviewing feedback,” said Yoko Mulholland, a senior policy advisor at think-tank E3G.
On February 18, the Japanese government sent in its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UN, stating that it aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% from 2013 levels by 2035 and by 73% by 2040, extending its 2030 goal of a 46% cut.
This was despite more than 80% of the 3,000-plus comments the government received calling for higher targets, as Reuters first reported. Japan’s government received criticism from green groups at home and internationally that the proposed targets were not in line with a global goal of keeping global warming to 1.5C.
To make an adequate and fair contribution, Japan should cut emissions at least 81% by 2035 below 2013 levels, according to recent analysis by Climate Action Tracker.
“Instead of heeding the people’s calls for a science-aligned 81% emissions reduction target, [Prime Minister] Ishiba bowed to pressure from fossil fuel interests,” Masayoshi Iyoda, a campaigner for 350.org Japan, said in a statement.
Return to nuclear power
The government of the world’s sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter also finalised its revised energy strategy alongside its NDC. It plans for renewables to account for 40-50% of the country’s electricity mix by fiscal year 2040, with nuclear power contributing another 20%.
The new strategy abandons a previous government stance of reducing dependence on nuclear power as far as possible, following the 2011 tsunami-related meltdown at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.
Japan’s domestic policies have wide-reaching consequences for the global energy transition.
Its energy strategy maintains an important role for fossil fuels, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), with energy demand projected to grow due to artificial intelligence (AI) data centres and new manufacturing plants.
The prospect of Japan importing more LNG, meanwhile, is emboldening countries like the US to proceed with new LNG production, including hopes that it could kickstart a long-delayed $44 billion LNG project in the northern state of Alaska.
Iyoda said Japan’s new climate and energy policies place “false solutions, such as fossil gas, nuclear, ammonia-coal co-firing power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the center of Japan’s climate action without a clear pathway to fossil fuel phaseout”.
Japan also has substantial influence in the Asia-Pacific through its investments in energy-related infrastructure.
The Asia Zero Emission Community, a multilateral forum initiated by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is promoting a large number of fossil fuel-related investments across Southeast Asia, and his successor has clearly signalled that the Japanese government will continue to support similar investments under the AZEC framework for the next decade.
Ollie Wilson, head of the Climate Group’s RE100 campaign, said Japan was failing to “seize the opportunity in front of it to become a clean energy frontrunner”, urging it to double down on renewables and adding that its NDC – the fifth from a G20 nation – “falls far short of true climate leadership”.
A linear pathway
Back in 2020, Japan announced its current emissions reduction target of 46% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels, and net zero emissions by 2050.
With the initial UN deadline for 2035 NDCs looming in February this year – which was met by only a dozen countries and has now been extended to September – a committee of Japan’s economy and environment ministries hosted a series of monthly hearings with experts.
During its November 2024 meeting, the proposed new targets were unveiled. With a 60% emissions cut for 2035 and 73% for 2040, they are points on a straight-line trajectory to net zero by 2050.
Presenting the draft goals, an economy ministry official explained “it is crucial for our country to clearly demonstrate its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, even in the face of uncertainties in emission mitigation technologies and global economic and social conditions.”
The linear pathway, he added, would “enhance predictability in achieving emissions reductions and economic growth simultaneously”.
NDC not 1.5-aligned
When Japan’s environment minister Asao spoke at COP29 in December, he promised Japan would submit “an NDC that is ambitious and consistent with the 1.5 degree goal.”
But environmental groups have argued strongly that the goals Tokyo has set do not help put the world “on track” to limit warming to 1.5C.
The Renewable Energy Institute (REI), a Japanese research organisation, said in a column on the 2035 target, before it was confirmed, that the government was using a flawed interpretation of the IPCC’s latest Sixth Assessment Report. This concluded that global emissions must fall by 60% by 2035 from 2019 levels for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C.
But instead of using 2019 as a reference year, the government picked 2013 – the year “when the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster led to zero reliance on nuclear power, increasing dependence on thermal power generation and causing a sharp rise in emissions”, according to REI.
Choosing 2013 as a baseline for its emissions cuts makes Japan’s climate track record look more impressive than it seems, the think-tank argued. Measured using the IPCC’s 2019 baseline and including natural absorption of carbon dioxide by ecosystems, the 2035 goal of 60% only achieves an actual reduction of about 49%, REI calculated.
“This level of ambition falls short of fulfilling Japan’s responsibilities as a developed nation,” the think-tank said, branding it a “missed opportunity”.
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Japan disregarded widespread calls to raise its 2035 emissions goal
June Rubis is a steering group committee member for the Cali Fund, from Sarawak in Malaysian Borneo.
At COP16 in Cali, governments made a significant commitment: at least half of the funding from the new Cali Fund should support the self-identified needs of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, including women and youth. It was a watershed moment for multilateral benefit-sharing.
The challenge now is to translate that commitment into access arrangements that recognise the different institutions, priorities and decision-making processes of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
For generations, biodiversity and traditional Indigenous knowledge have provided significant value to companies who depend on nature’s genetic diversity to discover new drugs that fight diseases, create products that improve health, and grow crops resilient to extreme heat and flooding events. While some compounds are sampled directly from the source country, increasingly the digital blueprints are held in online public databases which are freely accessible to use for innovation and research.
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The Cali Fund was established at COP16 to encourage commercial users of Digital Sequence Information, or DSI, to share benefits arising from its use. Estimates suggest it could generate over $3.5 billion a year – a stark contrast to the modest $10,656 currently committed to the fund from just five SMEs, underlining how much progress must be made at COP17 over the next two weeks.
The COP16 decision that set up the fund offers two routes for money to reach Indigenous Peoples and local communities: through government authorities, and through direct payments to institutions identified by Indigenous Peoples and local communities themselves.
Varied ways of organising
Indigenous Peoples and local communities organise through a wide range of institutions. Some have national or regional organisations experienced in managing international grants. Others work through territorial organisations, customary institutions, community associations, cooperatives or networks. Some have professional finance teams and audited accounts; others have extensive experience governing territories, collective resources or conservation work without having been organised around international funding requirements.
For direct access, some questions are already apparent. Which institutions should be able to receive funds? How should they be identified? What fiduciary standards should apply? How should safeguards and accountability work where institutional capacities differ? What support may be needed where institutions have strong community mandates but less experience with international finance?
Comment: Protecting nature is a public duty, not a Wall Street profit opportunity
If access is designed mainly around institutions that already meet the expectations of large international finance mechanisms, early funding will tend to favour those already familiar to funders. They will gain further experience and become better positioned for future funding, while institutions with less administrative capacity may remain outside the system despite strong community mandates and long histories of stewardship.
These first decisions matter most, because they set the terms for everyone who follows.
The role of intermediaries requires care. Some Indigenous organisations may want a fiscal host to hold and manage funds on their behalf. Communities may choose to work through an NGO they trust. Government-facilitated arrangements may work well in particular national contexts.
What matters is the function an intermediary performs and the authority that comes with it. Providing administrative support is different from deciding which Indigenous organisations qualify, which priorities can receive support, or how success will be assessed. Direct access means communities keep that decision-making authority.
Decision-making power
The COP16 decision refers to institutions that Indigenous Peoples and local communities identify. But authority among Indigenous Peoples does not sit in one kind of body. It may sit with territorial organisations, customary institutions, community associations or combinations of these. Legal recognition and customary authority do not always align neatly.
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An important feature of the Cali Fund’s governance is that Indigenous Peoples and local communities participate as full members of the Steering Committee, rather than as observers. Seven Indigenous Peoples and local community representatives, one from each of the seven socio-cultural regions, participate in consensus-based decision-making alongside representatives of governments and UN entities. Six additional representatives from civil society, scientific institutions and the private sector participate as observers.
That representation carries responsibility. Institutional legitimacy, access and representation take different forms across the seven socio-cultural regions. Indigenous Peoples and local communities members therefore have an important role in bringing those differences into the Fund’s governance and in ensuring that arrangements developed for one context do not become the assumed model for everyone else.
Safeguards and clear responsibilities
COP17 can establish the core principles and direction, while allowing operational pathways to develop in ways that respond to different regional contexts. The decisions countries take in Yerevan will shape how that flexibility is realised in practice.
The choices made around access will influence which institutions are able to participate, which routes become established and which forms of authority are recognised within the funding architecture. The aim should be an architecture with enough structure to maintain confidence while allowing for different forms of Indigenous and community governance.
A credible direct-access pathway will need safeguards, financial oversight and clear responsibilities. This would give the 50% commitment a stronger institutional foundation.
The Cali Fund’s importance will ultimately depend not only on how much funding reaches Indigenous Peoples and local communities, but on whether they are able to determine how the money is accessed, governed and used. This requires access pathways that recognise their institutions, priorities and decision-making processes, rather than requiring them to conform to a single predetermined model.
The post COP17 must settle who decides how Cali Fund money is disbursed appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP17 must settle who decides how Cali Fund money is disbursed
The UK government has approved extraction at the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea, despite acknowledging that this decision could make it harder for Britain to convince other countries to move away from fossil fuel production.
UK energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh approved the drilling on Wednesday after months of high-profile debate, fuelled in part by interventions from US President Donald Trump. She argued that the project would boost energy security in the wake of the Middle East fossil fuel crisis, protect hundreds of jobs and add £2.9 billion ($3.88bn) to the UK economy.
She said Jackdaw’s gas would be cleaner than imported gas and would not prevent the UK from meeting its legally-binding carbon targets and its goal of net zero by 2050. As the field is already licensed, she said extraction was consistent with the Labour Party’s 2024 manifesto promise not to issue any new oil and gas licenses.
The same morning, the government announced a new Energy Wealth Fund to reinvest oil and gas revenues in the climate transition. It will start with £2 billion ($2.67bn) from the government and be topped up over time with tax revenues from offshore oil and gas production.
Climate campaigners in the UK and abroad were quick to condemn the decision, while a leading legal expert told Climate Home News it goes against the advice of the International Court of Justice. Meanwhile, the government’s own documents reveal that it recognises the drilling could damage the UK’s reputation and its ability to push forward the global transition away from fossil fuels.
“Climate leadership” blow
The 92-page decision document says Fahnbulleh “acknowledges that international standing on climate is important and accepts that a decision to grant consent may not further the UK’s international climate leadership.”
It adds: “She acknowledges concerns about the potential implications for the UK’s credibility and influence – including the difficulty inherent in encouraging other states to move away from fossil fuel production while the UK continues, in a limited and transitional way, to draw on its own domestic resources.”
While noting that Jackdaw has not been issued with a new license – just permission to extract gas – the document says Fahnbulleh “accepts this does not fully resolve the underlying tension in the UK’s position” but “considers this alongside the substance of the UK’s wider record [on emissions reduction], which remains significant”.
It continues that she accepts these concerns are “legitimate” and weigh against approving gas extraction, but only gives this argument a “moderate negative weight” set against the benefits of gas production.
“Huge” wrong signal
In international climate talks, the UK has long supported the transition away from fossil fuels and is one of very few major oil and gas producers to ban new licenses. Across the North Sea, the Norwegian government continues to make offshore areas available for oil and gas exploration through annual licensing rounds.
Climate experts and campaigners shared the concern, acknowledged in the decision document, that approving Jackdaw could set a precedent for fossil fuel production elsewhere. Sam Fankhauser, professor of climate change economics at Oxford University, said the direct climate impact of Jackdaw is “much smaller than the debate around it would suggest” but the “wrong signal it sends, however, is huge”.
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Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, said that while Jackdaw’s output will be very small, “it will signal to other fossil fuel producers that they too should carry on with business as usual, less than a month before the COP31”.
Kenyan campaigner Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, called the decision “a serious blow to Britain’s international climate credibility” as “the UK cannot expect developing countries to move away from fossil fuels while giving the green light to new drilling in its own backyard”.
International Court of Justice
In July 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) advised that government failure to take appropriate climate action “including through fossil fuel production” may amount to an internationally wrongful act.
The UK voted in favour of a United Nations resolution welcoming the advisory opinion. Yet, in its Jackdaw decision document, it notes that the ICJ opinion is not legally binding and says the UK does not accept the court’s opinion that the customary international law duty to prevent significant harm to the environment applies to climate change.
Fahnbulleh concludes that, although it will have “significant effect on the environment”, gas drilling in Jackdaw “would not lead to significant harm to the environment” – and so does not breach any duty to prevent such harm. Instead, the government document says the duty should be considered “as a matter of policy rather than legal obligation”.
Margaretha Wewerinke-Singh, who led Vanuatu’s legal team pushing for the ICJ’s advisory opinion, told Climate Home News that treating the duty as a matter of policy rather than legal obligation is “not how international law works”. “An advisory opinion is not a judgement,” she said, “but it states the law as it stands, and that law binds the UK whether or not it accepts it.”
“Even as a matter of policy,” she added, “the decision asks the wrong question: whether Jackdaw on its own would cause significant harm. The Court found that accumulated emissions are already causing significant harm. What matters is whether approving new production is consistent with the stringent due diligence the duty requires.”
Public support for decision
While the decision was criticised by climate campaigners and the opposition Green party, polling reported by Politico suggests that 55% of British adults support drilling at Jackdaw, with just 14% opposed. Even supporters of the UK’s net zero target back new drilling by more than two to one, the polling found.
Jackdaw is one of two North Sea oil and gas fields the government has been debating whether to extract more from for months. While Jackdaw is a small gas field, the other, Rosebank, is a much larger field that holds mostly oil.
Rosebank’s emissions are estimated to be around seven times higher than Jackdaw’s. Fahnbulleh told Sky News that Rosebank is “different” to Jackdaw because its oil would be exported, whereas Jackdaw’s gas will be used in the UK, adding that she will consider it “in its own right”.
The Guardian reported on Wednesday that UK officials say Fahnbulleh is minded to refuse approval for Rosebank. She has not yet taken a final decision on Rosebank, the newspaper said, but a ruling is expected later this year.
The post UK approves gas drilling despite admitting blow to “climate leadership” status appeared first on Climate Home News.
UK approves gas drilling despite admitting blow to “climate leadership” status
A surge in wholesale costs driven by expensive gas is responsible for nearly 90% of the rise in UK household electricity bills since 2020, reveals new analysis.
The figures, shared with Carbon Brief by thinktank Nesta, show that wholesale gas costs are also behind the vast majority (77%) of the increase in household gas bills.
The analysis firmly contradicts the idea, which has become embedded in UK media and political narratives, that the UK’s net-zero target is to blame for high energy bills.
Andrew Sissons, director for sustainable future at Nesta, tells Carbon Brief that net-zero is, in fact, “helping to shelter Britain from the impact of expensive gas”. He adds:
“Rising gas prices, not net-zero, have driven most of the recent surge in Britain’s energy bills. Britain is particularly exposed, with over 80% of households connected to gas mains, while our electricity system still relies too much on gas as the marginal unit.”
The analysis comes after the UK government gave its approval for the Jackdaw gas field to be developed in the North Sea, despite stating that it “would not…affect prices”.
Another gas crisis
In January 2026, Carbon Brief reported that two-thirds of the rise in electricity bills since before the 2022 global energy crisis was due to high gas prices.
Now, amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, wholesale gas prices are at their highest levels since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Indeed, as of 19 October, UK wholesale gas prices stood at 220p per therm (£75 per megawatt hour, MWh), above the average for 2022 of 210p/therm (£72/MWh).
The figure below shows that, after accounting for inflation, typical UK annual household electricity bills had risen £180 by the fourth quarter of 2026, relative to the same period in 2020.
Some 90% of this increase (£161) is due to wholesale costs, driven by the price of gas.