EU rift on fossil fuel roadmap threatens strong COP30 outcome

Resistance from Italy and Poland to a roadmap for a transition away from fossil fuels is blocking the European Union from adopting a joint position, complicating its stance in crunch talks over the main COP30 decision in Belém.

Climate Home News understands that internal discussions within the bloc are still ongoing as of Wednesday evening, aiming to persuade the two countries to support the plan in Belém and allow the EU to formally push for a roadmap in discussions.

One EU negotiator told Climate Home that if the bloc cannot agree to a united position on the roadmap, it cannot formally advocate for it in negotiations, putting at risk discussions over achieving a strong outcome on the transition away from fossil fuels.

More than 80 countries want COP30 to start a process for crafting a blueprint for the world to transition away from fossil fuels, which would put the landmark COP28 deal into practice. Supporters of the idea include 25 EU member states, excluding Poland and Italy.

Calls to broaden support

EU Commissioner for Climate Wopke Hoekstra said on Wednesday morning that “we very much like it, even though we might not use the word roadmap in Europe”.

He added that the EU had spent “a lot of time consulting with others to make the group, across the globe, that can accept it as broad as possible, as large as possible”.

The EU Commission and the country holding its rotating presidency – currently Denmark – negotiate at COP30 on behalf of all of the bloc’s member states. Its general negotiating position for the UN climate summit was set by ministers from all 27 member states at the end of October.

Pressure builds for fossil fuel transition plan at COP30

They agreed to “reiterate the call for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” – the language of the COP28 deal in 2023 – and to call on countries, “particularly major emitters, to operationalise their contribution to the call”. But the mandate to the negotiating team does not include specific references to a roadmap.

The idea was first floated by Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva in June, but it has only been gathering momentum since governments arrived in the Amazon city for COP30. Rapid developments over the past ten days have caught many countries off guard.

Pushback from petrostates

A draft “Mutirão” decision – expected to be the main political outcome of the Belém summit – published on Tuesday morning mentions the transition away from fossil fuels among a wide sweep of options for how to find agreement on the thorniest issues.

One option would encourage governments to convene a roundtable aimed at supporting countries to develop “just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps”, including for reducing dependency on fuels and stopping deforestation. However, that appears to refer to domestic blueprints and stops short of advocating for a global roadmap that over 80 countries are calling for.

COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago said on Tuesday evening that the text “opens the door” between two “extremes”. “Most of the countries are either very favourable [to the fossil fuel roadmap] or it is a red line,” he added.

Petrostates within the Arab group, led by Saudi Arabia, previously pushed back against following up to the Dubai deal and are expected to mount strong opposition against efforts to include reference to a roadmap in the text.

Not a “top-down” process

A Polish negotiator declined to comment on the matter, citing ongoing talks.

Early in November, Poland was among a handful of countries that opposed a new EU target to cut emissions 90% by 2040, from 1990 levels, which was adopted by the bloc through majority voting, Reuters reported.

A spokesperson for the EU Commission declined to comment.

Jennifer Morgan, climate envoy for Germany until earlier this year, told Climate Home News that supporting a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels is clearly in the EU’s interest.

“Policy to support such a roadmap… is already in many directives, and you see the growth of renewables. And so I would expect them to throw their full weight into this,” she said.

She added that as the process is meant to be something that is “nationally determined” and “not some top down thing that’s coming to tell them to do something different than what they already have in law, I would expect that they could support it.”

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